BH-加密皇

【Boldly predicting the bottom of this bear market, the standard trend of five-wave decline】
Partners, Bitcoin is currently priced around 72400. We have mentioned several times that Bitcoin is undergoing a five-wave structure in a bear market. It is now clearer that we are in the fourth wave rebound structure. In Chart 1 at the daily level: we can see that Bitcoin broke below the long-term upward trend line, announcing the end of the bull market and entering a bear market. After the first wave collapsed, a rebound and consolidation formed a second wave continuation structure. After more than 50 days and a rebound of over 17000 points, it entered the third wave, which plummeted by over 38000 points. Currently, we are in the fourth wave rebound structure. Referring to the second wave movement, the more than 50 days and over 17000 points rebound just reaches the upper yellow downward trend line. After the completion of the fourth wave, the fifth wave's collapse is likely to follow the equal distance decline of the second wave, directly reaching around 38000-40000.
Looking at Chart 2: the current situation at the 4-hour level shows a continuation structure within the yellow range, which is currently in the fourth wave rebound continuation and upward consolidation phase. Last night it touched around 74000, just hitting the upper boundary of the range (which we reminded about yesterday) and was resisted at the Fibonacci 0.382 position, falling back. The next movement will be a range-bound upward to near the yellow trend line before a sharp decline.
Therefore, in summary, the contract suggestion is to short near the upper boundary of the range and long near the lower boundary, with a stop-loss strategy for breakouts. In terms of spot trading, we are waiting for opportunities. There may be another black swan event in the first half of the year, and Bitcoin reaching around 40000 presents a significant opportunity.
(In the evening, we may conduct a review summary article on the analysis approach we have accurately grasped since the beginning of the bear market. Please pay attention and click the avatar to enter the chat room for daily reminders)
#BTC
#BTC走势分析
$BTC

#BTC
The liquidity is poor on weekends, with small fluctuations. Currently, Bitcoin is oscillating near the lower support line, which is the consolidation phase after a sharp decline. It can be seen that the rebound is relatively weak, and the bullish forces are still not strong enough. Therefore, next week, the bearish side is still expected to dominate.
#BTC走势分析
$BTC

I had Doubao summarize the recent posts for me. This wave of the bear market trend has been precisely grasped, with the given points having almost perfect win rates.
Doubao: The continuous bearish views published are centered around the five-wave decline of the bear market, shorting at high points, with targets looking down to 66000 and below, and the logic is highly coherent.

📌 Core Logic and Technical Framework

Big cycle narrative: Always anchoring to the five-wave decline model of the bear market, defining the current phase as the end of the fourth wave rebound, about to start the main decline of the fifth wave, all rebounds are seen as 'trap for the bulls' and 'shorting opportunities'.
Key signals:
Formation signals: Bearish Gartley pattern, M top, bearish flag structure
Time window: The second wave rebound lasted about 55 days, the current consolidation structure has approached 50 days, predicting a high probability of a drop in the recent week
Resistance / Support: Multiple attempts to break through the Fibonacci 0.5 position have failed, 69000 is a key trendline watershed.

Price targets:
Short-term: Unified direction around 66000
Medium-term: Predicting that in April we will see BTC in the 50s
Extreme: If it breaks above 71500, then rises, 76000-77000 is viewed as the final high point for shorting.
Operational strategy: Maintain a bearish stance throughout, it is recommended to hold and increase short positions, no stop-loss strategy mentioned, viewing the decline as a certain trend.
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#BTC
The big pancake has fallen below the intermediate structure support line, then rebounded to test again, support and resistance have switched, currently close to around 66600, it can be short in the short term, stop loss at 67400, take profit half near 63000, half at 60300, the risk-reward ratio is quite good.
#BTC走势分析
$BTC

Tonight the post is finished, and the pancake immediately falls.😅
#BTC #BTC走势分析
$BTC

【The current large pancake is like a time bomb, ready to explode and fall】
The current price of the large pancake is around 68600. Recently, it has attempted to break above the Fibonacci retracement level of 0.5 twice but failed to hold, ultimately falling back. Currently, on the hourly chart, we can see the formation of a 'bearish Gartley pattern,' which is a typical 'M top' harmonic structure, indicating a depletion of upward momentum and that selling pressure is starting to dominate. Whether the support level below can hold is somewhat uncertain.
As seen in Chart 2, the rebound intermediary structure in the upper yellow area indicates that the second wave trend experienced a fall after about 55 days. Now that the current intermediary structure has been in place for nearly 50 days, it seems that the time for a decline is approaching in the last week.
Regarding operation suggestions, we recommend holding onto the medium to long-term short position from 71500 that we established the day before yesterday. If there is a rebound to 71500-72000 (which is relatively unlikely), continue to add to the short position, as the downward trend is significant. 点击进入皇家研究院聊天室
#BTC
#BTC走势分析
$BTC
$ETH

Teda and Binance officially announced - Tether Gold ($XAUT ) is officially deployed natively on BNBCHAIN.
- Real gold is stored in Swiss vaults, yet transactions can be conducted at lightning speed with very low fees, upgrading the gold standard.
#XAUT
$XAUT

【Massive Bitcoin Options Expire on Friday】

This Friday - Approximately 195,000 Bitcoin, about 14.16 billion USD in options will expire, accounting for over 40% of the total open interest, which is around 42 billion USD, making it one of the largest expiration days of the year. Around half of the options risk in the market is concentrated on this settlement day.
Generally speaking - Delta will hedge against a crash:
Market makers frequently buy and sell in spot/futures to hedge risks.
A few days before expiration → Hedging adjustments become frequent and intense. After expiration → A large number of hedging positions are released → Prices are prone to gaps/spikes.
Major capital reshuffling
After hundreds of billions in capital expires: either roll over or exit the market.
Short-term liquidity fluctuations → Volatility surges.
#BTC #BTC走势分析
$BTC

【BTC Short-term Wait for Direction Selection in the 69000-71500 Range】
BTC is currently around 70000. Yesterday it broke above 71500 but still could not stabilize and fell back into the 69000-71500 range. We maintain yesterday's viewpoint that the area near 71500 has certain resistance due to being a dense area of chips and the Fibonacci 0.5 position from the previous wave fill. Therefore, if it can effectively break and stabilize, we look upward to around 74000, and even 76000-77000 presents a great opportunity for shorting at a high level. If it breaks below 69000, it will reach near the lower axis of the structure. If it truly reaches the lower axis, this wave is very likely to break down, leading to a significant drop, with a major fifth wave crash.
#BTC
#BTC走势分析
#特朗普缓和局势
$BTC

#特朗普立场
Following Trump's recent comments on easing tensions with Iran regarding war, cryptocurrencies, gold, silver, precious metals, and global stocks experienced a short-term surge, while energy oil saw a sharp drop, creating another iconic scene. 🙄
#特朗普考虑结束伊朗冲突 #BTC
$BTC
$XAU

#BTC
It was already mentioned yesterday that if the big pie drops below 69000 and does not quickly recover, it will be considered an effective break below the trend line, and it is very likely we will see it around 66000 first.
In April, we will see a big pie in the 50,000s, so pay attention to tomorrow's detailed analysis. 点击进入皇家研究院聊天室
#BTC走势分析
$BTC

#BTC
The big coin has pulled back from a high point near 76000 to around 68700, supported by the lower yellow trend line, and has rebounded somewhat, currently quoted around 70700. We draw Fibonacci retracement lines from this round's high to low points, and can see that the big coin encounters resistance at the 0.382 position during its rebound. Therefore, we can assess the trend based on the lower yellow trend line and the upper 0.382 position: 1. If it breaks below 69000 without quickly recovering, we will continue to see a decline to the lower range, currently around 66000. 2. If it breaks through the 0.382 position, at 71500, and stabilizes, then we can expect to see the upper range of 73000-73500. 3. If it stabilizes at the 73000-73500 position, then we look at 76000-77000, followed by a major crash.
The short-term rebound presents good opportunities for high short positions, as we are in the fifth wave of the bear market decline. The current fourth wave adjustment structure, or the end of the descending flag structure, is getting closer to another major crash. 点击进入皇家研究院聊天室
#BTC走势分析
$BTC

#BTC
The current price of the pancake is over 70300. Yesterday, we mentioned that our short position at over 75200 took profit at 71000. There is support near the middle line of the daily Bollinger Bands and the upward trend line below, which indeed held around 69000, and there is currently a slight rebound. Looking at Chart 2: we are still focusing on the green trend line below, which is also at the midpoint of the oscillation adjustment zone (yellow zone). If it holds, it is likely to reach the upper yellow resistance line of the range again, which is the end of the fourth wave of adjustment and a great opportunity to short. If it breaks below 68600 in the next couple of days and cannot recover quickly, we are looking at a drop towards the lower boundary of 66000 first.
The overall trend perspective remains that a new round of a major crash is coming, be wary of the rebound trap that entices long positions.
#BTC走势分析
$BTC

#btc 【Bitcoin shows signs of a top divergence on the 4-hour level】
Bitcoin is currently priced around 74000. From the chart, we can see that the 4-hour MACD shows signs of a top divergence, with green bars indicating a reduction in upward momentum. Additionally, as I mentioned earlier, there are three layers of pressure at the 74000-75000 range. The breakout formed yesterday has not been stable, so there is still a significant demand for a pullback. It is predicted that there is a high possibility of a pullback near the yellow support line below, around 70000-71000. If it holds, then there is also a potential upward move towards the yellow trend line near 76000-77000, indicating the end of the fourth wave in the five-wave downward sequence, followed by a significant drop in the fifth wave.
If it can stay above 75200 in the next 24 hours, we will see levels around 78500-79000, which is near the Fibonacci 0.5 and the upper yellow resistance line, followed by another sharp decline.
Therefore, in terms of operation, it is recommended that yesterday's long position at 75200 should still be set to break even, with a profit-taking adjustment near 71000. For those who are not in the market, you can consider high short operations based on the above ideas, controlling the position ratio and stop-loss points.
#BTC走势分析
$BTC

#BTC 【The pancake is eating meat again in the high空】
Congratulations to the partners who followed the空单 in the morning, we are eating meat again. The pancake is currently at 73600, see the chart below 1: The空单 point provided in the morning is 75200, currently the空单 is profitable by more than 1600 points, indeed delicious again. Let's look at charts 2 and 3, the pancake today faked a breakout at the triple pressure level we have been discussing, especially at the upper axis of the oscillation range, forming a false breakout to lure in buyers, estimating that many bulls are stuck at high positions.
As we look at the chart, there are three standard circles ⭕, the support level at the four-hour level is at the middle track of the Bollinger Bands, currently around 72700, so our short空单 can set a break-even exit, and then this position 72700-800 can set a take profit of half, the next support is near the yellow support line below, currently around 70000, so this position can set a take profit for the remaining position. If this position breaks again, it will return to the lower axis of the oscillation range, around 66000.
Operation thoughts reminder, in the bear market stage, do not chase多 arbitrarily in contracts, especially for medium to long-term operations, there may still be some opportunities for short-term多, the overall trend is downward, it should conform to the trend with high空 as the main focus, and be wary of the dealer's false breakthrough lure trap.
#BTC走势分析
$BTC

#BTC
The current price of Bitcoin is over 75200, and it is at the upper resistance level of the range. You can try to short at this position, with a stop loss at 76300 and a take profit near 72000.
#BTC走势分析
$BTC