The current price of Bitcoin is around 70600, and the last wave of shorting opportunities starting with the number 7 has arrived. We have been discussing that Bitcoin is in a bearish market experiencing a five-wave decline structure. As shown in the chart below, we can see that the first wave of this bear market fell by more than 30%, followed by a second wave rebound of over 17000 points, and then the third wave fell again by more than 30%. Currently, we are in the fourth wave rebound and consolidation phase, which is slowly approaching its end, and the fifth wave crash is imminent.
Next, looking at the chart below, we can see that the second wave rebound window took more than 50 days to approach the upper yellow resistance line before entering the crashing third wave. Currently, we see that the fourth wave rebound window has lasted about 45 days, nearing the end close to the yellow trend line. We expect it to approach next week, so the fifth wave decline will also come with it. Therefore, we predict that it is highly likely that a Bitcoin starting with the number 5 will arrive next month in April.
Now let's take a look. Yesterday we mentioned that if Bitcoin stabilizes above 71500, it is very likely to continue rising to the upper range of the fourth wave. If it breaks below the green trend line at 69000, it will likely fall to around 66000. It did indeed drop to around 67400, and then tonight, Trump's remarks about easing tensions with Iran have led to a significant surge. It has now returned to the range of 69000-71500. Therefore, we continue to hold yesterday's view: if it breaks and stabilizes above 71500, it is very likely that Bitcoin will again reach the upper boundary of the fourth wave rebound zone, which will also be close to the yellow resistance line. It may rise to 76000 (this round of easing tensions from Trump is likely to drive it up), and another opportunity to short at a high position will arise. We have already captured three previous instances where we shorted at 74000 and above. This upward movement will be the last chance to short above 70,000 in this round of bear market, and it will also be the most favorable wave to short during this fourth wave window period.
In summary, the operational suggestion remains to short at high positions, waiting to see if Bitcoin can rise again to the upper boundary of the fourth wave near the yellow resistance line to short. Currently, it looks like between 75500-77000, capturing the opportunity to start shorting at the beginning of this fifth wave crash. Bitcoin in the 50,000 range will arrive. Click to enter the Royal Academy chat room
