币圈小喵

This round of bull market should be the worst in the history of cryptocurrencies

1. General losses: In the first half of this year, most people lost money, and only a few people made profits. Many of the losers are old investors in the currency circle. Even if they have resources and capital, this bull market is particularly harsh, and many people cannot get out of the trap.

2. Collective panic: In the past, people thought that there would be a big bull market two or three months before and after the halving of BTC, but BTC almost finished rising last year. The same is true for altcoins. When everyone thinks the market is coming, it is actually over. After missing BTC, they collectively boarded altcoins, and the result was that there was no rise after boarding.

3. Collapse of altcoins: Many altcoins will return to zero. Unlike previous rounds of bull markets, today's consensus logic and investment standards have changed. Altcoins are no longer seen as opportunities, and many people are eliminated as a result. The consensus of altcoins collapsed, and no one paid after the inside story was exposed, and a rapid collapse occurred, burying many people.

4. VC consensus collapses: Investors no longer hold high respect and faith in venture capital, and their words and actions have very low trust.

5. Project entrepreneurship becomes more difficult: Project parties need to understand future trends, community needs, marketing and community operations, which are becoming increasingly difficult. There are fewer and fewer successful projects, and retail investors' trust in project parties is also decreasing, forming a vicious cycle.

6. Cryptocurrency dividends fade: The currency circle dividends fade, and everyone is eager to quickly obtain wealth freedom, which seems very anxious. After this round of bull market, many people are worried about their future in the circle.

7. Ideological change: This round of bull market has brought many changes in ideology and consensus forms, and everyone needs to re-understand the crypto circle. Don't be impatient, don't be discouraged, don't be happy too early, and don't lose the pattern.

8. Unexpected changes: This round of bull market will make many people's years of accumulation go to waste, and things you didn't expect will happen. After so many years of happiness, it's not too much to be sad once.

The cruelty and complexity of this bull market are unprecedented, reminding us to remain calm and rational in the pursuit of wealth.

BTC, this thing, is a bit like an actor who "follows the script", with cycles that don't change the lines.

Look at this rhythm, almost copy-paste:
From 2015 to 2017, it surged for 35 months;
Then from 2017 to 2018, it suddenly calmed down, bearish for 12 months;

Then it happens again:
From 2018 to 2021, another 35 months of soaring;
From 2021 to 2022, another 12 months teaching you how to behave;

The key point is——
From 2022 to 2025, another round of 35 months of increase……
So what's next?
No need for fortune telling, history has already written it for you:
From 2026 to 2027, it's highly likely to be that familiar 12-month "bearish package".
In short, Bitcoin doesn't behave like a random trend, but rather like a "loop playback".

And the problem is——
Most people think "this time is different" in every cycle,
Yet every cycle ends up teaching the market the same lesson.
So don't be too optimistic,
You think you're participating in the market,
But in fact, the market is repeatedly testing your memory.
As for what will happen next?

The script has already been written, it just depends on whether you're the audience or the harvested extras.
#BTC行情 $BTC

Now Trump can't jump around, right? 😂😂#特朗普称对伊战争已胜利

$XAU
Today let's talk about gold. First, a key point: in the short term, it may need to go down first (consider positioning for shorting).

Because this round of rebound is almost at its end.
Everyone knows: the height of the first rebound basically determines how far this entire segment of rebound can go.

Let's focus on one position:
If gold can rise above 46 and stabilize today, then next week is likely to follow a pullback rhythm, but it also indicates that the possibility of hitting a new low in April is not great.
But if it can't rise above 46 this week or instead falls below 444, then this wave is basically a small rebound, and there is likely to be a deeper decline afterwards, possibly even hitting a new low.

If some negative news is added, dropping to 4300 is also possible.

By the way, the common codes for gold in exchanges are XAU, XAUT, and PAXG, which are essentially assets pegged to gold.

However, no matter how it goes, one thing is relatively certain:
In mid to early April, there is a high probability of a good opportunity to go long.
What needs to be done now is to patiently wait for this first wave of rebound to finish, and then find a more comfortable position to enter.
#黄金下跌

$BTC
The short-term rebound of the large pancake is ongoing
The daily chart shows a typical bull-bear flag pattern
Short-term players can take advantage of the movement within the channel
The next target is to break the 60,000 mark, long-term players should continue to wait.....

Suddenly, I was liberated by this passage

Some people die at 33
Some people leave at 48
You must understand that we don't wait until we're old to die
But rather, we could die anytime, anywhere
Don't worry about trivial matters
And don't punish yourself for others' mistakes
Also, don't let unhappiness fill our brief lives

Life is only one-way, there are no returns
In this world, we only come once
Once we finish, we leave
What wealth, face, and human affairs
In fact, aren't that important
What matters is to live well every single day #币安人生

When there are no surprises, Trump is the biggest surprise!

In the past few days, the market has once again been played by 'Chuanzi'—the day before yesterday he called for a 48-hour ultimatum, and yesterday he postponed it by another 5 days, the rhythm entirely dictated by his mouth, with global markets being pulled back and forth, and the direction lost.

However, amidst this chaos, the market has actually given a clearer signal.
Last night, gold experienced a sharp drop, directly smashing into the 'gold pit', while BTC, on the other hand, resisted the drop and even started to strengthen—this point is actually very crucial: gold falls, BTC does not fall, indicating that there are signs of funds beginning to switch. As long as there is a slight positive news, the rally will be very decisive.

From a structural perspective, $BTC has rebounded at the bottom of the trend line with significant volume, the trend is relatively healthy, and there is a chance to challenge 74,000 again in the short term; if it can stabilize, the next step is to look at the previous high of 76,000. However, rhythm expectations must also be managed; this round of rebound is unlikely to continue indefinitely, and I tend to see the time window around mid-April. Before that, it is more suitable to reduce positions at high points and short in batches, as the rebound has already entered the latter stage. If it can really rally again to around 80,000, that would actually be a more ideal exit position.

Looking at $ETH , the structure has quietly started to strengthen: the highs and lows of the oscillating range are rising, and it has already broken through the downtrend line; the pullback is on low volume, while the rise is on high volume, and the amplitude of the down wave's retracement has been completely absorbed. Although the false breakout on March 6 did not stabilize, the price still maintains itself in the upper middle of the oscillating range, indicating that the bulls are gradually gaining control of the rhythm. This morning, a bullish engulfing pattern has also formed, and the price is already close to the upper boundary of the range.

Overall, the current signals are very clear:
Short-term bulls are dominant, but the mid-term rebound is nearing its end.
Thus, the strategy is very simple—
You can go long, but don't get too carried away;
If you have profits, remember to take them;

When the real rally occurs, the opportunity will actually be on the side of the bears.
#特朗普缓和局势

Gold has collapsed, the US stock market has been falling consecutively, and Bitcoin has also suffered!
This kind of triple kill situation is actually rare.
This also indicates one thing: the market is currently experiencing a liquidity crisis:
The most typical case was the one on March 12, 2020.
If you don't know, you can look up the history.
#黄金创43年来最大单周跌幅

The market has had a lot of information these past two days, and Little Meow is here to summarize the key points for you:

1️⃣ Market Overview:
BTC surged to 75,000, hitting a new high for the phase, but it couldn't stabilize and returned to around 74,000, indicating that there is still selling pressure above. The key position is still 73,000; holding this level is necessary to have a chance to continue pushing upward, with targets looking at 79,000 → 85,000.

2️⃣ Market Sentiment Focus:
HYPE shot up directly to $40+, and whales are continuing to buy long, with even Arthur Hayes calling for $150, which is clearly a strong target against the trend, but caution is needed at such levels.

3️⃣ Capital Movement:
ETFs continue to flow in, with BTC and ETH both attracting capital; at the same time, institutions are also increasing their stakes, with Grayscale staking a large amount of ETH, indicating that big funds haven't withdrawn yet.

4️⃣ Macroeconomic Factors:
The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting tonight is crucial, and it is very likely that there will be no rate cuts; the focus is on whether the attitude leans hawkish or dovish. Personally, I lean toward the view that rate cuts are unlikely until at least September or even October.
The situation in the Middle East continues to escalate, also affecting the market.

5️⃣ Other Signals:
The US stock market has seen slight gains, overall still relatively stable.
Gold is oscillating at high levels, with risk-averse sentiment still present.
Payment, stablecoins, and AI are continuously making new moves (Mastercard, PayPal, OpenAI, etc. are all pushing forward).

The market is fine, but the rhythm is starting to become difficult.
There is pressure above and funds below; in the short term, it looks more like high-level oscillation + event-driven market. Don’t chase blindly; at high levels, it’s even more important to control the rhythm.
#SEC澄清加密资产分类

This week's Federal Reserve meeting actually has no suspense—there's basically no chance of a rate cut. But the key is that this meeting is likely to be an important turning point this year, as there are signs of inflation rising again.

In simple terms, three key points:
First, interest rates are highly likely to remain unchanged;
Second, economic expectations may be downgraded, but inflation expectations will be revised upward, and internal disagreements over the rate cut path will increase, which is a pressure on the market itself;
Third, Powell is highly unlikely to "dove" but may be more hawkish than the market expects.

Not cutting rates is not important; what matters is whether it is "more hawkish" or "more dovish."
This week, we need to focus on volatility; the market may not be stable.

This wave of Bitcoin rising from 60,000 is merely a rebound!
Once this rebound ends, it is highly likely that we will return to the original downward rhythm — I have repeated this viewpoint many times.

To be honest, I actually hope I am wrong this time. For more than half a year of gradual decline, many people are waiting for the moment when the "bear market ends and the bull market starts". I can fully understand this kind of agony, as I have also experienced two complete bear cycles. But the market is often very realistic; the bear market may only be halfway through, and it will not end early just because we expect it to.

Since August 2025, I have basically judged many phase fluctuations of BTC and ETH correctly, but that does not guarantee that I will be right in the future. The hardest part of trading lies in this — even if the accuracy rate is high, one must maintain reverence. Once a judgment is wrong, one must go back and review the logic, find the problems, adjust oneself, rather than stubbornly resist the market.

The market is always smarter than people; mistakes are allowed, but the same mistake must not be repeated.
The bear market is tough, but it is also a phase of filtering people.
Let’s endure the bear market together in 2026; if everyone is still around in 2028, the rewards will definitely be worthwhile.
#比特币升回7万

Long-lasting care will lead to disaster! #BTC

This morning, the market suddenly moved, and the reason is very straightforward.
On March 13, Trump began calling for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates again, directly naming "Mr. Too Late" Powell, meaning very clearly: Don't wait for the next meeting, it should be done now.

As soon as the news came out, market sentiment was immediately ignited. BTC restood at 72,000 dollars, and ETH surged above 2150. Meanwhile, institutional actions haven't stopped, BitMine has added another 30,000 ETH, worth about 60 million dollars.

In simple terms, the market still follows the same logic: as long as the expectation of interest rate cuts is reinforced, risk assets are easily pushed by funds. #比特币升回7万

Personal Opinion: At this stage, it's really not suitable to chase high prices for lobsters anymore.

Everyone has actually seen the rhythm of Memes too many times — initially relying on emotions and narratives to quickly rise tenfold or twentyfold, and by the time everyone on the internet is discussing it, it is often the most liquid and also the easiest position to take over. Once the hype starts to decline, the speed of capital withdrawal is usually faster than the rise.

Suggestion: Take the money earned from emotions and leave, don’t compete.

Now the market is making people anxious, no one is mentioning 312 anymore.
I still remember when I first entered the circle,
someone came to intimidate me saying:
312 is going to crash.
Now I don't see anyone saying that anymore.
I guess that group of old-timers has basically changed battlefields!

Plan M has started~😂😂😂