When there are no surprises, Trump is the biggest surprise!
In the past few days, the market has once again been played by 'Chuanzi'—the day before yesterday he called for a 48-hour ultimatum, and yesterday he postponed it by another 5 days, the rhythm entirely dictated by his mouth, with global markets being pulled back and forth, and the direction lost.
However, amidst this chaos, the market has actually given a clearer signal.
Last night, gold experienced a sharp drop, directly smashing into the 'gold pit', while BTC, on the other hand, resisted the drop and even started to strengthen—this point is actually very crucial: gold falls, BTC does not fall, indicating that there are signs of funds beginning to switch. As long as there is a slight positive news, the rally will be very decisive.
From a structural perspective, $BTC has rebounded at the bottom of the trend line with significant volume, the trend is relatively healthy, and there is a chance to challenge 74,000 again in the short term; if it can stabilize, the next step is to look at the previous high of 76,000. However, rhythm expectations must also be managed; this round of rebound is unlikely to continue indefinitely, and I tend to see the time window around mid-April. Before that, it is more suitable to reduce positions at high points and short in batches, as the rebound has already entered the latter stage. If it can really rally again to around 80,000, that would actually be a more ideal exit position.
Looking at $ETH , the structure has quietly started to strengthen: the highs and lows of the oscillating range are rising, and it has already broken through the downtrend line; the pullback is on low volume, while the rise is on high volume, and the amplitude of the down wave's retracement has been completely absorbed. Although the false breakout on March 6 did not stabilize, the price still maintains itself in the upper middle of the oscillating range, indicating that the bulls are gradually gaining control of the rhythm. This morning, a bullish engulfing pattern has also formed, and the price is already close to the upper boundary of the range.
Overall, the current signals are very clear:
Short-term bulls are dominant, but the mid-term rebound is nearing its end.
Thus, the strategy is very simple—
You can go long, but don't get too carried away;
If you have profits, remember to take them;
When the real rally occurs, the opportunity will actually be on the side of the bears.