Unexpected events over the weekend, Iran has started bombing aluminum plants in the Middle East. The two attacked aluminum plants are quite large, with Emirates Global Aluminum accounting for 4% of global production capacity and Bahrain Aluminum accounting for 2.2%, together representing over 6% of global aluminum supply!
This issue is quite serious because production stoppage and bombing are two different concepts. Production stoppage can be resumed in the short term, but if bombed, even after the war ends, resuming production will take a long time. Daofeng checked, and aluminum products exported from the Middle East account for about 9.2%–10% of global supply, which will inevitably cause some impact on the international supply chain.
In short, the Strait of Hormuz is not only the throat of oil and natural gas; 30% of global nitrogen, chemical fertilizers, and 12% of electrolytic aluminum also pass through here! If it is blocked for a long time, "a single hair might move the whole body," affecting not just industry but also potentially skyrocketing prices for food and agricultural products!
Generally speaking, the transmission logic of rising bulk commodities is: gold → non-ferrous → energy and chemicals → agricultural products. Originally, the focus was on chemicals and fertilizers, but now that the aluminum plants of the Middle Eastern princes have been attacked one after another, if supply decreases, metal prices will soar! In the second half of the year, food (seed industry) and agricultural product (fertilizers and pesticides) prices may rise rapidly, and opportunities in related sectors can be monitored. #比特币ETF价格战 #摩根士丹利比特币现货ETF $ETH
