看心

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Bitcoin.
More and more people are starting to ask 'How to go today' 'How to view today'.
I'm sorry, this is obviously aimed at blaming me completely.
I am a value investor.
I only have a little bit of analytical ability.
There is no perfect predictive ability.
Please take responsibility for your own investments.
The current market situation is a phase rebound in a big bear market, just like the decline in the big bull market from December 2024 to early April 2025.
The difference is that the rebound duration in a typical bear market does not last very long.
After all, the bull market lasted 3 years, and the bear market lasted 1 year.

one
Bitcoin.
The Bitcoin bear market is rebounding, but it can't get past 74500. This was the low point during the brief pullback in the bull market around Trump's tariff war on April 7, 2025. Today, it has become a resistance level in the bear market.
The weekly K-line has a gap formed during the decline: around 80663 to 79400.
In addition, the middle band of the Bollinger Bands is temporarily around 82000.
These are all potential high points worth paying attention to.
A friend said today that the trend is upward. We can't always be pessimistic about Bitcoin and keep seeing bears; there's no need to be so stubbornly bearish.
I said:
This is like when I stubbornly believed the bull market wasn't over when it dropped to around 75000 at the end of the first quarter of 2025.

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Regarding Bitcoin, I believe it will take more time to complete the rebound and rise. 75000 may not be able to hold it down. Short positions need to be patient in positioning.

Two
I believe the news about Pang Donglai is related to the rumors about Zhengzhou.
However, many people mistakenly believe that Pang Donglai only has 4 billion in assets, thinking that all of the family's wealth has been distributed.
In fact, it is converting capital reserves into share capital, and after the conversion, it is only a portion of equity.
In the future, when dividends are distributed, they must be allocated according to the structure corresponding to all equity, not just based on this 4 billion equity structure for all profits.

Three
CZ said that AI AGENT will need to use digital currency for payments in the future. The number of payment transactions will exceed current human payments by 1 million times.

1.
The trend of Bitcoin is consistent with the urgent update I made yesterday morning.
In the short term, it will surge to around 72300-74000.
I predict that it will continue to operate within the range of fluctuations afterwards.
Recently, many people are bullish, just like on February 25 and March 4.
This is not very calm.
It is important to clearly understand the current position; the big players do not have a strong desire to bottom-fish or accumulate.
I will place some short orders in batches within the range of 72000-75000 to accumulate in response to the upcoming bear market.
A breakout upwards followed by a retest without breaking will trigger a stop loss.
The stop loss position may be set quite wide.
Doing contracts is extremely risky. If you don't have the capacity to bear it, it can lead to symptoms such as insomnia. It is essential to be cautious when doing contracts and take responsibility for yourself.

In the short term.
As I expected, the big coin filled the gap near 71650.
Then turn around and think, successfully creating a lower low of 68977.
Then it rebounded, wiping out the short's stop-loss, currently around 71000.
I believe that as long as the shorts are held, a downward trend will soon arrive.
The target remains 62500.
This operation requires great courage and a firm belief in the bear market. It is not investment advice.
Looking long-term.
This account still insists that the big coin is a high-quality asset in the long term.
The best strategy is to buy heavily at the bottom of the bear market, and at least a considerable portion needs to be held long-term.

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Bitcoin left the downward trend on March 2, breaking through the pressure line of the daily Bollinger Bands middle track. A pullback is highly likely and has already occurred, and the next step still looks optimistic for an increase to around 72,000 to squeeze shorts and trigger stop-loss points for short sellers.
This indicates that the selling power is gradually being exhausted, and the next step will involve a few days of fluctuations above the middle track of the Bollinger Bands.
News shows that some institutions believe there is a need to exit at the current price.
There are two most famous examples:
1. The miner Bitcoin XiaoLu cleared 1,132 bitcoins from its holdings on February 22.

One,
Bitcoin has finally broken through the upper edge of the fluctuation range set on February 8 at 72300, and the current price is around 72600.
This account has been frighteningly accurate recently.
I have cleared all my spot positions near 72000.
I opened a short position at 72300, preparing to hold it until 62500. I estimate that I will need to endure a period of floating loss. I will add another short position near 74000. It wouldn't be surprising to reach 78000.
Because a large number of short positions will be stopped out, the stop-loss actions will further promote a short-term surge.
The lower edge of the fluctuation range is 60000.
Buy spot near the lower edge of this fluctuation range, layer short positions near the upper edge.

1.
Today's Bitcoin:
I really don't have 800 directions in one day.
I only have one direction.
As long as the time scale is determined.
For example, looking at the 10-year line, I definitely see it positively, long-term bull market.
Looking at the 1-year line, 2026 is a bear market, and 2027-2029 are all bull markets. Simple and clear.
Looking at the monthly and weekly lines. The oscillation range still needs to oscillate, from 60,000 to 72,000.
Why did I clear my position immediately when it broke 65,120 a few days ago? Because from the technical pattern, it was clear we could see 60,000, but things developed quickly, and 62,500 disappeared in an instant, not reaching 60,000, just using 62,500 to fill the gap from the day of the sharp drop to 60,000. Then it came back.

Today is February 24, 2026, the eighth day of the first lunar month, the first day back to work.
Part One:
Bitcoin Market Watch**
Bitcoin continued its decline today, reaching around 63,000. On the day it fell to 60,000 and the day after it rebounded to 72,000, we saw the formation of a trading range between 60,000 and 72,000 – this fluctuation has only just begun, and there's still a long way to go; there will be many more rounds of fluctuations.
Many indicators, self-media, and research institutions are touting some kind of "bottoming-out signal," which I find utterly laughable. Bull and bear markets are both waves, torrents, like a rolling river. At certain bends, they may appear turbulent or form whirlpools, leading fools to believe the flow is reversed—they are wrong, terribly wrong. The mighty river flows eastward, unstoppable, until it reaches the sea where it finds calm.

One,
Tonight my son told me he doesn't like me, he likes mom.
When asked why, he said mom is good, dad is not.
When asked what is good and what is not, I couldn't answer.
Two,
In the past few days, there have been many things I want to write, too many threads, and there are also connections and entanglements. I have been sorting it out.
Perhaps the best way to express it is to tell a story without designing too much structure and framework.
Because my article focuses on one thing: content.
Three,
First, Trump and the White House officially announced today that they will start to deploy public documents regarding aliens.
In this regard, my view is very clear: aliens have always existed, such as (blue blood) (the true history of the world: human legends) (Montauk: contact with aliens), documentaries like (Sublime Supremacy) record this. Mini-movies like (Orion Conspiracy) I just watch as documentaries. There is too much information, both true and false, and without detailed long-term cross-comparison, it is impossible to discern.

1.
I have written about gold many times recently.
Those interested can search for 'Kan Xin Gold' to take a look.

My view is now clearer, gold at $5600/ounce is the peak, it rebounded at $4423 (around $5100/ounce) after falling and won't break through, confirming that around $5600 is indeed the top.
I mentioned that I would repeatedly test 0.618, and it has been tested 2 times already, there may be 1-2 more times.


The market has provided this distribution range for everyone to exit, don't miss it.
During this period, I will sell all my gold to those destined to have it.

I don't want to say too much about investment today: there's no need to repeat the short-term fluctuations of Bitcoin today, nor to reiterate the mid-term trends of the bear market.

1.
The following is a conjecture that has not yet been falsified:
The algorithmic model of AI is similar to the algorithmic model of the soul; humans do not master this algorithmic model but rather discover it.
This discovery is different from the discovery that dolphins, pigs, gorillas, dogs, cows, and other animals possess a certain level of spirituality.
This discovery has another side: humans are not as intelligent as these AI algorithms.
Furthermore, some people begin to feel doubt and even fear: will AI and corresponding silicon-based life forms be a higher form of life than humans? Humans may be suppressed, or ruled, or even exterminated or abandoned by the universe.

One,
Today is the last day of the Year of the Snake in the lunar calendar 2026.
Wishing everyone a happy Spring Festival!
Two,
On the last day of the Year of the Snake, will there be a Spring Festival market?
I have deep feelings about the Spring Festival market in 2024.
At that time, I opened a short position on the 25th day of the twelfth lunar month, and then held the position throughout the entire first month until I was forced to close it to cut losses at the end.
On that occasion, the K-line quietly bottomed out before the Spring Festival holiday, but rebounded strongly the day after I closed my position.
I heard that in the last 9 Spring Festivals, 8 of them saw an increase.
Could it be that many year-end bonuses for Chinese people have flowed into Bitcoin?
Or as the (I Ching) says: 'The hidden dragon does not move, the dragon appears in the field.' Build momentum before the festival and soar after it.

1.
The cryptocurrency exchange has provided a very clear and effective viewpoint that the top of the Bitcoin bull market distribution range has passed.


We have already left the solar system and can never go back.
Similarly, the bottom accumulation range of the bear market is also similar.
Once you leave and recheck for confirmation, you can never go back.
Market makers will not make large purchases during the accelerated decline phase, causing chaos in their operations.
Occasional contracts and a small amount of ETF inflows are not mainstream. They are merely a self-rescue for some foolish large funds.
After hard work to push the market down, how could it be significantly raised again, allowing retail investors the opportunity to escape?

1.
Today we interview an entrepreneur.
He is over 70 years old and highly respected.
He often uses small stories to 'clear the road' for us to eliminate understanding barriers.
Speaking of some entrepreneurs and officials who have stumbled in recent years.
We asked: Are they forced choices or proactive choices?
The entrepreneur answered: It is all proactive.
We asked: Is it because of greed? Is there fear?
The entrepreneur answered: It is the loss of the ability to perceive fear granted by power. They truly believe nothing will happen.
My summary:
Many people dare to do this and that in their lives, thus making a bunch of mistakes, occasionally mixed with some normal things.

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At a loss for words, cannot be refuted.
2.



In addition to bank managers, it cannot be refuted.
3.



This chart comes from the on-chain data organization Glassnode, showing Bitcoin: Relative Unrealized Loss. Simply put, it measures the total losses of all Bitcoin holders who are currently in a 'loss' state (current price below the purchase price), as a proportion of Bitcoin's total market value.
Black Curve (Right Axis): The price of Bitcoin in USD (logarithmic scale). It can be seen that the price has fluctuated from a few hundred dollars in 2017 to around $100,000 in 2025.

1.
Since Bitcoin started to decline on January 14, 2026, it accelerated its drop on February 3, 4, and 5, with a maximum drop of 24% over those three days.
The fear index has dropped to a historic level of 5.
The trading volume surged, reaching the highest single-day trading volume since August 5, 2024.
Naturally, Bitcoin rebounded from the bottom on February 6, rising from 60,000 to 71,700, with an increase of about 20%.
Because the bear market is currently ongoing, this bottom is temporary. Similar to the market in May 2022. At that time, Bitcoin dropped out of a consolidation area during the bear market, fluctuating sideways for more than 3 weeks. In the end, it started to plummet again. It reached around 17,000. If one were to seek a sword by marking the boat, when it dropped to 17,000, it corresponded exactly to the end of January 2026 in this bear market.

1.
If we consider the two and a half years after the birth of Bitcoin as a bull market, and the crash that began in the second half of 2011 as the first bear market, then there have been four bear markets (Bear One, Bear Two, Bear Three, Bear Four), four halvings (2012, 2016, 2020, 2024), and four halving bull markets.
In October 2025, the fifth halving bull market reached its peak, with a price of 126000.
The relationship between the monthly RSI indicators of the last four bull markets and prices shows a situation of bearish divergence. Prices are gradually rising, but the ability of the RSI values to reach new highs is gradually declining.
On the contrary, the position of the RSI low point continues to create new lows.