One,
Today is the last day of the Year of the Snake in the lunar calendar 2026.
Wishing everyone a happy Spring Festival!
Two,
On the last day of the Year of the Snake, will there be a Spring Festival market?
I have deep feelings about the Spring Festival market in 2024.
At that time, I opened a short position on the 25th day of the twelfth lunar month, and then held the position throughout the entire first month until I was forced to close it to cut losses at the end.
On that occasion, the K-line quietly bottomed out before the Spring Festival holiday, but rebounded strongly the day after I closed my position.
I heard that in the last 9 Spring Festivals, 8 of them saw an increase.
Could it be that many year-end bonuses for Chinese people have flowed into Bitcoin?
Or as the (I Ching) says: 'The hidden dragon does not move, the dragon appears in the field.' Build momentum before the festival and soar after it.
However, for the Spring Festival in 2026, I am more optimistic about a volatile market.
1. First, let's look at the broader context:
The bear market is clear; various big shots have already exited the distribution range around 126,000 to 80,000.
For example, this individual below:
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong completed his exit by selling Coinbase stock instead of selling BTC.
During the same period, Coinbase's stock also showed an overall downward trend:
It can be said that industry leaders like Brian Armstrong have a very precise grasp of the top of the bull market. They continue to exit during the distribution range. They are completely unaffected by various news and reports. The decisiveness of big shots exiting far exceeds what retail investors can imagine—Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong also cleared all personal BTC holdings on January 28.
This is worth learning for retail investors.
After such big shots exit, they will not 'change their minds' during the bear market process. As long as they are truly insightful about the market, they will have enough composure to wait until the bear market ends or until a truly safe margin price to enter the market.
2,
Bitcoin dropped from 98,000 to 60,000 during this wave, experiencing historically significant panic selling, and at the moment it reached 60,000, there was the largest single-day turnover in two years, indicating that many people were optimistic about this support level.
However, the rebound stopped abruptly at 72,000.
What does this indicate?
—Although the support consensus is strong, a bear market is still a bear market. Profit-taking is still significant, and selling pressure is still large. Without enough big players entering the market, there will be no real reversal.
3,
The Spring Festival market has never been a holiday gift, but rather a rebalancing of long and short forces in a specific time window. This time, even if there is one, it will likely only be a brief celebration around 72,000 and 74,000. Like the fireworks on New Year's Eve, no matter how bright, they only last for three seconds—
What truly determines the market is never the red letters on the calendar but the positions in the wallet and the orders in the exchange.
Listen, there are no firecracker sounds on the K-line chart.
Three,
How to operate in the Year of the Horse to make big money?
Just like the super bottom in 2022, it is highly probable that 2026 will be the same.
Seizing such an opportunity to heavily invest in safe and high-quality assets like Bitcoin can lead to a wealth cycle that belongs to oneself.
Pay attention to a few points:
1,
Do not be overly fixated on time, months, or prices. Although bear market bottoms always have a few weeks of ultra-low trading volume consolidation, the current Wall Street methods are relatively counterintuitive, favoring stop-loss sweeps and breaking conventions to create larger fluctuations. Therefore, the bear market may be shortened or extended; one cannot apply the past experience that bear markets must last 12 to 14 months.
2,
On February 12, with the Binance SAFU fund address buying another 4,545 BTC, worth 304.58 million USD, the Binance SAFU fund has completed a 1 billion USD Bitcoin purchase plan, currently holding 15,000 BTC, worth 1.005 billion USD. It can be seen that Binance symbolically bought 1 billion USD worth of Bitcoin, but it did not raise the price significantly. Therefore, at the end of the bear market, it is essential to pay attention to the true big whales entering the market, whose scale will definitely not be 1 billion or several billion, but starting from several hundred billion.
3,
There is no need to doubt the safety and reliability of Bitcoin; if you doubt it, it indicates insufficient learning.
The performance of A-shares in recent days has once again proven how difficult it is to withstand a market where smart people gather.
Assets like Bitcoin that have cycles that are relatively easy to grasp will not always give us opportunities. In the future, the deflation mechanism of Bitcoin combined with the characteristics of the cycle will gradually brew a long bull market, no longer having a clear 4-year cycle rule. The production decline caused by halving may not be as significant as the lost influence of Bitcoin. Therefore, the bear market in 2026 must be well grasped, and opportunities should be cherished.
4,
In 2026, further strengthen one's subjectivity and reduce objectivity.
What is most valuable about people is their attention, time, and investable wealth.
The first two can be relatively easily converted into work income, skills, etc. However, the application of the third type is true passive income.
After selecting the target and identifying the big cycle, there is still one link missing, the most important link.
It is 'man-made'.
One must maintain a steady mindset, a robust body, and a resilient spirit while investing in Bitcoin with a healthy value investment philosophy.
Being overly objective means being overly concerned about how you appear in the eyes of others, overly concerned about others' evaluations, and overly allowing yourself to become a fence-sitter.
For example, many people lament the fading flavor of the new year as soon as the Spring Festival arrives, and even try to reverse the fact that this is different from their childhood. Relatives and friends interact less, and they still have to force gatherings and visits.
As if the old ways are the right ones. As if everyone is responsible for restoring the flavor of the new year.
Unfortunately, I do not intend to participate in this collective nostalgia— the flavor of the new year is not something that can be forced out by ritual.
The first principle of holidays is reunion and relaxation, not pursuing the rituals of past celebrations.
The first principle of personal happiness is cognition + the convenience of pursuing cognition.
Without wealth, there is no convenience in pursuing seriousness.
Therefore, do not ignore investment, do not ignore making money, be honest, and be principled. Do not pretend not to care. Even more, do not avoid wealth, wasting time on trivial matters.
Just like the fireworks on New Year's Eve, they are not meant to illuminate the flavor of the new year in the eyes of others.
Too many people put their funds in fiat currencies—watching their purchasing power quietly eroded by inflation, like frogs boiling in warm water, without realizing it. Yet they spend endless time on those impractical social activities for self-comfort.
In fact, those who have been trading A-shares for many years without any progress are also mechanically performing some self-comforting ritual actions, such as staring at the market every day, reviewing, copying homework, and changing codes—seemingly diligent, but in fact using tactical busyness to cover strategic laziness.
Enhancing subjectivity means giving up as many regulations and dogmas as possible and placing one's own happiness first. Living with reason rather than emotion.
5,
Should one leverage during the bear market?
My view is to act prudently.
Imagine, what is the most outrageous leverage in this world?
It is the crazy mortgage loans of Chinese people in the first 20 years of the 21st century.
It uses thirty years of cash flow discounting to leverage a tenfold increase in housing prices, essentially resonating with the era's dividends and credit expansion.
Compared to Bitcoin, the era's dividends in China's real estate market are very short-lived and rootless. The leverage of Bitcoin, however, is the most fundamental and enduring dividend in the process of global credit system reconstruction. It does not rely on the policies of a single country, is not restricted by geography, and its value is anchored in mathematics and consensus. When fiat currency continues to depreciate, and the debt cycle peaks, the scarcity and immutability of Bitcoin are becoming the only real dividend for ordinary people to resist systemic risks.
However, the leverage in the Bitcoin bear market is just betting individual perceptions on the underlying consensus of the next technological revolution. This may seem contradictory to the 'no leverage' principle mentioned by Duan Yongping earlier. But I don't like dogma. The cycles of Bitcoin are all violations of value investment that can be operated within the ability range. Moreover, the leverage at the bottom of the bear market.
Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger also moderately increase their positions based on good leverage tools within a margin of safety. The key is to understand that the essence of leverage is to amplify certainty, not a gambler's mentality. When Bitcoin falls below 40,000, fear is almost at its maximum. Trading volume continues to be sluggish. If there is a long-term low-cost leverage available, it can be used moderately.
At this time, the real risk is not price fluctuations but missing the historical window of underlying asset pricing power transfer.