姜楠的笔记

When anxious, go work out or learn English.
Because this is one of the few things in the world that "as long as you put in the effort, you will definitely be rewarded."

Making money is not like that.
Making money has never been linear; the more you work, the more you earn—not necessarily; it often happens suddenly, it’s about timing, cycles, and the random leaps that come after accumulation.

Yet many people remain stubborn:
The more they trade, the more they lose; they become shareholders from trading stocks, landlords from flipping houses, and end up with a husband from dating...
They think persistence is the direction, but the result is just losing more and more in life.

So don’t use all your energy to chase money.
Reclaim your life, strengthen your body, and add another dimension to your language, and you will find:
What can change you is not working harder, but being healthier, clearer, and freer. #共勉

Nomura has pushed the interest rate cut expectations to September, can $BTC hold up?
Today there is an important macro message.
Nomura Securities has delayed the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations from June to September and December. There are two reasons:
First, the conflict in the Middle East has arisen, oil prices are under upward pressure, and inflation risks are resurfacing.
Second, the nomination process for Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh has been delayed, resulting in a policy vacuum before the new chairman takes office, and no one dares to take action.
In simple terms: there is no courage to cut interest rates in the short term.

What does this news mean for the market?
Delayed interest rate cut expectations → The dollar remains strong → Liquidity tightens → Risk assets come under pressure.
This morning $BTC rebounded from 65 to 67, and $ETH rebounded from 1,980 to 2,045. It looks strong, right?
But Nomura's report is a hedge.
Rebound or not, macro pressure has not disappeared. In mid-April, there will be Walsh's hearing, and the market will have to reprice then.

However, Nomura also mentioned a medium-term logic: after the new Federal Reserve Chairman takes office, there may be a quick easing.
In other words, there will be short-term pain, but a big package may come in the medium term.
This is the recent market—constantly trading on this expectation gap.

My judgment: this wave of rebound today can be participated in, but don't get carried away. There is a hearing in April, and the volatility is not over yet. Don't take too heavy a position, keep some bullets for better opportunities.

The Ukrainian attack on Russian oil facilities disrupts Trump's stable oil plan, exacerbating macro risks for Bitcoin

The short-term bearish logic chain for Bitcoin:
Ukrainian attack → 40% interruption of Russian oil exports → Oil price increase → Inflation pressure rises → The Federal Reserve may raise interest rates → Liquidity tightens → Risk assets come under pressure

During the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict, crude oil prices skyrocketed, and the stock market plummeted, but Bitcoin ultimately followed the downward trend. At that time, the narrative of inflation dominated.

But the situation is different now:
• Trump himself is a volatility machine; the unpredictability of his policies is itself a boon for cryptocurrency
• If the oil price shock damages the U.S. economy, the Federal Reserve may not dare to actually raise interest rates
• The current narrative in the crypto market is already "digital gold" + "U.S. strategic reserves"; geopolitical conflicts may instead strengthen this narrative

The signals that are truly worth paying attention to:
It’s not about whether oil prices rise or fall, but about the movement of the dollar. If oil prices → inflation → dollar strengthens, that would put considerable pressure on Bitcoin. If this chain is broken (if Trump tweets something), the market may return to a bullish narrative.

My judgment: The oscillation in the range of 65,000 to 75,000 will continue for a while. Unless there is a real interest rate hike, the probability of falling below 65,000 is low. This range-bound market is suitable for market makers and contract traders, and it’s not necessarily a bad thing for spot holders.

Today's market resembles a test of resilience after all the bad news has been released.
Under the quadruple pressure of war shadows, interest rate hike expectations (30%), the plummeting stock price of stablecoin giant Circle, and rumors of the Bhutanese government selling currency, $BTC still manages to stay above $70,000, which itself is a highly provocative signal.

There is an underlying logic in the market: if geopolitical wars and interest rate threats can't shake the market, it indicates that the bears have run out of ammunition.

When negative news is released in abundance yet fails to trigger a breakdown (falling below $68,000), the funds that were initially on the sidelines will quickly convert into buying power to bet on a rebound. This is why analysts believe there is momentum towards $75,000.

Let's chat together

The current $BTC is very awkward. 80,000 is the cost price of #ETF , which is actually a death flag.
The price difference of 5,174 dollars is currently the thickest wall in the market. If you are a client of BlackRock and have finally broken even after a year of losses, your first reaction is to hold on and push for 150,000, or to withdraw to save yourself?
Most people would choose the latter. So 80,000 dollars is not a resistance level; it is the starting line for a mass exodus. Before stabilizing at 80,000, all rebounds are just bears enticing bulls to fill the pit.

The probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by the end of the year exceeds 30%. The market is still debating whether to lower rates in June or September. Now, with the gunfire from the Middle East, interest rate hikes have returned to the negotiating table. The surge in oil prices may cause U.S. inflation to rise again and prompt the Federal Reserve to delay rate cuts or shift to raising rates.

As long as the unemployment rate remains stable and Powell has not stepped down, the Federal Reserve will fight inflation to suppress soaring oil prices, even at the cost of stalling the economy.

The current trend of Bitcoin is similar to the previous plunge to $60,000, with $65,800 becoming a key support level.

In my personal opinion, the wave that dropped from $100,000 at the end of 2025 also showed this kind of upward sloping small channel. This trend seems to be rising, but in fact, it lacks strength.
This slow climb consumes bullish funds the most. It's like climbing a mountain; if it's a constant slow climb without supplies (new funds entering the market), in the end, it often leads to exhaustion and directly falling off a cliff.

If it really reaches $65,800, it would not just be a technical breakdown, but rather a collapse caused by bullish panic, with a target aimed directly at $60,000 or even lower.

In the past, the market would plunge only when interest rate hike expectations were high and would only rebound upon seeing interest rate cuts.
Now, the market dares to plunge as long as there are no interest rate cuts, even the 'maintaining the interest rate' has become the fuse for a sharp drop.

The strongest resistance level for Bitcoin is coming.
In the past six months, top institutions (clients of BlackRock and Fidelity) have entered the market with an average holding price of around $80,000. Currently, they are still in a state of floating losses.
From the perspective of retail investors, losses would be unbearable, but institutional clients face profit pressure. Once the price returns to $80,000, institutions may choose to break even, close positions, or reduce holdings to balance their balance sheets.

The current global economy😛

The probability of Bitcoin rising to $75,000 in March has increased to 63%

As the coin price stabilizes at $71,000, the prediction for surpassing $75,000 by the end of March has exceeded 60% based on #Polymarket .

But don't forget, there is still 46% of voices worried about a drop back to $65,000. A 46% risk means this is still a game close to flipping a coin.

Prediction markets are different from regular news releases; every bit of probability here is backed by real money. A 63% probability indicates that the consensus among large funds is currently leaning towards a breakout.

Since the market is optimistic about $75,000, let’s wait for it to break through $74,000 with volume and stabilize before taking advantage of the remaining gains; this certainty is stronger than betting on probabilities now.

War = Huge expenses = Central banks have to print money/cut interest rates to support
$BTC The current rise is not because of the war, but because everyone anticipates that the Federal Reserve will eventually be forced to ease due to pressure from the war. If the central bank's decision next week remains tough (hawkish), this part of the increase may be quickly erased.

The #CPI at 20:30 tonight is the lifeline that determines whether Bitcoin will rush to 72,000 or pull back to 67,000 in the short term.
📊 March 11: The night of the CPI showdown
Expected data (reference standard):
CPI year-on-year expected: 2.4%-2.5%
Core CPI month-on-month expected: 0.2%-0.3%

Current situation of the game:
Currently, $BTC is moving sideways around 69,600, with cliffs above and below.
Upper pressure: A massive number of short positions are ambushed around 72,000 USD.
Lower support: The area of 67,000-69,000 USD is the leverage liquidation zone for bulls.

Data cooling is favorable:
If the core CPI is less than or equal to 0.2%, combined with last week's weak employment data, the market will wildly bet that the Federal Reserve must cut interest rates.
This will be the strongest fuel to break through the resistance level of 72,000 USD, targeting directly at 75,000 USD.

If rising oil prices push up the CPI leading to data exceeding expectations (for example, year-on-year > 2.5%), then the Federal Reserve may turn hawkish again. Once the data turns red, the lower leverage liquidation zone (67k-69k) will quickly seek support at 65,000 USD.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to maintain its interest rate in March, with wage growth being its primary focus. The mid-March wage negotiation data (Spring Tome) is not yet available, preventing a potential rate hike.

If a rate hike doesn't occur in March, the yen could surge towards 160 against the dollar or even higher, requiring the Japanese government to intervene with substantial funds to support the market.

It's important to understand that a significant amount of global capital is borrowing yen at near-zero interest rates to invest in Bitcoin and US stocks.

No rate hike in March means these borrowed yen remain relatively safe, a short-term positive for Bitcoin and US stocks.

However, if the wage data confirms a rate hike, these large funds borrowed to buy cryptocurrencies will flow back to repay their debts. This could lead to a massive outflow of funds from the cryptocurrency market.

While watching Bitcoin's price of over $70,000, keep a close eye on the yen. A sharp V-shaped rebound in the yen's exchange rate often leads to a significant drop in Bitcoin's value.

The current Bitcoin is in a loss-cutting period.
Last week, short-term holders (those holding coins for less than 155 days) were almost all selling at a loss.

As long as the price briefly returns above 70,000, these holders will hurry to exit to preserve their capital.

The average cost for the short-term holding group is 89,000. Compared to the current 67,000, these individuals are losing over 20,000 USD on average per coin.

This is why it feels like the price hasn't been able to rise recently.

This huge cost price difference has filled the upper side with sell order landmines, and any slight rebound in price will encounter tremendous selling pressure to preserve capital.

Are you the friend who has a position near 89,000 USD, waiting for a rebound to exit? Or are you waiting for them to finish cutting losses, preparing to pick up bargains near 60,000?

In spring, the surge of Bitcoin towards 100,000 USD has raised high alert among regulators, who are rigorously preventing risks from infecting the domestic financial system.

Therefore, the guiding principle of the policy has always remained unchanged — you can observe, you can research, but engaging in large-scale trading speculation and illegal exchanges domestically is like dancing on a minefield.

📅 Tonight 21:30: The non-farm "results"—is it a good opportunity to increase positions or a moment to avoid risks?
Official script (market expectations):
Non-farm employment population: Expected 59,000 (compared to January's 130,000, this is a huge "slowdown").
Unemployment rate: Expected 4.3% (at a high level in recent years; if it continues to rise, the recession alarm will sound).

🧐 How do retail investors view it? Three "results" scenarios:
Scenario A: Data is worse than expected (for example, employment less than 30,000, unemployment rate rises to 4.4%)
Retail mindset: "Oh no, the economy is going to recession!"
Market logic: This kind of "bad news" is actually "good news." It means the Federal Reserve will have to consider cutting interest rates to rescue the market.
Reaction: The dollar may plunge, and Bitcoin and gold will likely surge violently.

Scenario B: Data is better than expected (for example, employment exceeds 100,000, unemployment rate drops to 4.2%)
Retail mindset: "The U.S. economy is too strong; everyone has a job!"
Market logic: This kind of "good news" is "bad news." The Federal Reserve will think: Since employment is so good, I won't rush to cut interest rates; high rates will continue.
Reaction: The dollar strengthens, which is a major negative for risk assets like Bitcoin, and a sell-off is likely.
Scenario C: Data meets expectations (around 59,000, 4.3% unchanged)
Reaction: The market may first experience "spikes" of volatility, then continue to move sideways while waiting for next week's CPI inflation data.

What should we do?
Reject "betting big or small": In the few minutes when the data is released at 21:30, the market fluctuations will be extremely bizarre, often first rising then crashing or first crashing then rising. It is recommended that retail investors turn off high leverage or simply wait half an hour until the trend is clear before acting.

Keep a close eye on the key point of "4.3%" for the unemployment rate: The current market is very sensitive to recession. If the unemployment rate unexpectedly spikes (for example, to 4.5%), although long-term rate cuts are beneficial, in the short term it may trigger a panic sell-off (commonly referred to as "recession kill").

In summary: Tonight's data is to set the market's "tone." It is recommended to wait until after 22:00 to see the real market absorption after the U.S. stock market opens before making a decision.

At half past nine tonight, are you prepared to stay in cash and watch, or have you already placed orders to "buy the dip" or "chase the rise"?

Bitcoin approaches a critical bullish-bearish watershed zone, whether it breaks through or not may determine the direction of the market in the future.
This week, Bitcoin performed remarkably, rising over 10%, firmly standing above the $72,000 mark, even reaching as high as $73,900. But the real challenge is just beginning—the price is rushing towards the ultimate bullish-bearish watershed of the past two years: the range of $73,750 to $74,400.

Why is this range a critical juncture for retail investors?
At the beginning of 2024, the upward momentum came to a halt here, leaving many who bought in at high prices standing guard for a long time.
In April 2025, it became the end point of a downward trend.
Simply put, if it can stand above this range, it means the stars and the sea, starting a new wave of bull market; if it can't hold, the shadow of the downward trend since last October will not have dissipated.

I believe this breakthrough is not just a price issue, but also a matter of confidence.
Many people see a 10% increase and want to go all in, but don't forget, this range has 'memory.' Within this narrow range, the battle of main funds will be very intense, and there may be severe spikes up and down.

For retail investors, missing out on that $500 increase is not frightening; what is frightening is rushing in during a false breakout. If the daily level can steadily hold above $74,400, that would be a good entry point for right-side traders.

If in the coming days this range continues to hover without making a move, or even shows a high volume spike followed by a pullback, then one must be wary that this is just a 'trap' to lure in buyers, and the overall downward trend may not have ended.