Nomura has pushed the interest rate cut expectations to September, can $BTC hold up?

Today there is an important macro message.

Nomura Securities has delayed the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations from June to September and December. There are two reasons:

First, the conflict in the Middle East has arisen, oil prices are under upward pressure, and inflation risks are resurfacing.

Second, the nomination process for Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh has been delayed, resulting in a policy vacuum before the new chairman takes office, and no one dares to take action.

In simple terms: there is no courage to cut interest rates in the short term.

What does this news mean for the market?

Delayed interest rate cut expectations → The dollar remains strong → Liquidity tightens → Risk assets come under pressure.

This morning $BTC rebounded from 65 to 67, and $ETH rebounded from 1,980 to 2,045. It looks strong, right?

But Nomura's report is a hedge.

Rebound or not, macro pressure has not disappeared. In mid-April, there will be Walsh's hearing, and the market will have to reprice then.

However, Nomura also mentioned a medium-term logic: after the new Federal Reserve Chairman takes office, there may be a quick easing.

In other words, there will be short-term pain, but a big package may come in the medium term.

This is the recent market—constantly trading on this expectation gap.

My judgment: this wave of rebound today can be participated in, but don't get carried away. There is a hearing in April, and the volatility is not over yet. Don't take too heavy a position, keep some bullets for better opportunities.