CryptoQuant Quicktake

The global context continues to put markets to the test.

Contrary to what Trump announced during the week, the attacks and bombings have still not stopped.

The escalation of the conflict persists and all markets are suffering the consequences. Even the most robust strategies, such as those based on stocks and bonds (known as 60-40), are experiencing their worst performance since 2022.

The crypto market is not spared, even though it has shown relative resilience over the past few weeks.

During this period, a clear increase in inflows on Binance can be observed, the platform recording the highest trading volumes.

After recording the largest net stablecoin outflows with -$3.4B on December 11 and -$6.7B on February 15, we are now witnessing a shift in trend.

Today, the stablecoin netflow on Binance stands at +$2.4B, an encouraging development, but one that still needs to gain further momentum.

Monitoring stablecoin flows remains important in this context in order to better understand investor behavior.

Written by Darkfost

The Bitcoin market is entering a critical phase. If March 2026 closes negative, it would mark a rare six consecutive months of decline—an event historically linked not to simple corrections, but to structural distortions.

Using CryptoQuant data, particularly SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio), provides clarity. Historically, such extended declines have occurred only in specific contexts.

In 2014, a four-month decline followed the collapse of Mt. Gox, severely damaging market trust. SOPR became unstable, reflecting a breakdown in market function itself.

In contrast, the six-month decline from August 2018 to January 2019 followed the ICO bubble burst. SOPR remained below 1 for an extended period, indicating widespread capitulation and forced selling. This marked a full market reset, followed by a trend reversal in 2019.

Today’s situation differs. While SOPR hovers near or slightly below 1, it has not shown the prolonged sub-1 behavior seen in 2018. Loss realization exists, but full capitulation has not occurred.

This reveals the key distinction: past declines were driven by persistent selling pressure, whereas the current market is defined by a lack of demand. Exchange reserves are declining, suggesting supply is being locked, yet weak Coinbase Premium and unstable ETF flows indicate insufficient capital inflows.

Thus, this phase resembles a “market pause” rather than a collapse. Infrastructure and institutional frameworks are intact, but capital is absent.

The critical question is what comes next. Historically, extended declines have preceded major reversals. However, without full capitulation, further consolidation remains possible.

A sustained recovery in ETF inflows, a positive Coinbase Premium, and rising on-chain activity could trigger a sharp rebound.

Bitcoin now sits at a unique intersection of structural strength and cyclical weakness—where understanding internal dynamics is key to anticipating the next move.

Written by XWIN Research Japan

BTC is still unable to move back above the realized price that excludes inactive supply.

This chart presents a cost basis that excludes supply aged more than 7 years in order to better reflect the supply that is actually circulating.

This approach filters out both lost BTC and coins that never move, often referred to as diamond hands.

With this adjustment, the realized price sits around $72,500, which is currently acting as resistance.

BTC has now been trading below this level for about two months.

During every previous bear market, BTC remained between 6 and 10 months below this cost basis without managing to reclaim it.

If this pattern repeats, we could expect several more difficult months for BTC, with price continuing to trade below $72,500.

Written by Darkfost

On the STH side, the difficulties persist.

With BTC trading around $65,000 – $70,000, the market remains well below the STH cost basis, which is estimated at $85,900.

Over the past six months, almost all investors who entered Bitcoin have found themselves at a loss.

This is reflected in the MVRV (Market Value / Realized Value), which is currently trading at bear market valuation levels.

This indicator compares the market value to the realized value, helping identify periods of undervaluation or overvaluation.

Today, the STH MVRV stands at around 0.77, well below the neutral level.

At the end of February, it even dropped to around 0.7, indicating that STH were sitting on average losses close to 30%.

When the STH MVRV remains stuck in negative territory like this, it is generally not a very positive signal.

It suggests that short-term holders are under significant pressure, which tends to make the market more erratic and fragile.

However, historically, these are often the periods when it can make sense to gradually build long-term positions.

Phases like this have often provided strong opportunities for the most patient investors.

Written by Darkfost

Bitcoin ends the week priced at US$ 66,339.88 (a 3.45% drop in 7 days), trading under the shadow of an energy shock comparable to that of 1973. With Brent consolidated at US$ 100.66 and the Strait of Hormuz under geopolitical tension, 30% of the world's oil supply faces critical logistical risks. The central thesis is that while physical energy logistics are "locked," Bitcoin’s neutral infrastructure acts as a liquidity rail immune to geographical blockades. However, the probability of a global deleveraging event (Liquidity Crunch) for margin coverage in traditional markets remains at 45-50%, which could force temporary liquidations.

ON-CHAIN INTERPRETATION

The segmentation of the US$ 12.3351 billion institutional amount reveals the current supply mechanics:

• OTC Wall (93.83% / US$ 11.574 bn): Smart Money is taking advantage of the macro panic to "hijack" the mobile supply. This volume moved outside of exchanges indicates a liquidity segmentation where institutions lock the asset as a strategic reserve against cost-push inflation.

• Reactive Margin (6.17% / US$ 761 mn): Only a minimal fraction is exposed to the direct volatility of exchanges. With a "shallow" order book, the probability of sharp moves (>8%) in response to geopolitical triggers is over 70%.

THE TRIAL BY FIRE OF WHAT MANY CALL DIGITAL GOLD

The region between US$ 65K and US$ 70K has been consolidating as a structural support zone (realized price). We estimate a 65% probability of sustaining this level, provided that no capitulation occurs in global credit markets. The asymmetry is Neutral-Positive: the locking of supply via OTC creates a forced scarcity, but the geopolitical vulnerability of April 6th acts as a catalyst for extreme volatility, with a correction risk down to US$ 54K in a systemic stress scenario.

STRATEGIC VIGILANCE: Protection via derivative hedges is recommended for this date, treating the event as a global liquidity solvency test.

Written by GugaOnChain

Coinbase Premium remains negative signaling that US has no interest in buying BTC for now.

For conservative investors, would wait until the premium shifts positive

Written by BQYoutube

The XRP Coinbase vs. Binance Price Premium indicator points to a clear shift in market behavior in recent days. The premium had been moving in positive territory, meaning that the price of XRP on Coinbase was higher than on Binance, which is typically an indicator of strong demand from U.S. and institutional investors. Between March 10 and March 22, the premium maintained relatively high levels, approaching +0.04 to +0.05, while the XRP price remained stable above $1.35–$1.40.

However, starting on March 23, the indicator began a gradual decline, suggesting either a decrease in demand on Coinbase or increased selling pressure compared to Binance. The latest reading stands at -0.0364.

This negative reading means that the price of XRP on Coinbase has fallen below that of Binance, marking a significant shift that reflects weaker institutional demand or a movement of liquidity to other platforms.

It is also worth noting that the premium was moving within a clear positive range during mid-March, but it gradually lost momentum, with a continuous decline since March 23, indicating a change in the short-term market trend. A shift of the premium into negative territory is often considered an early indicator of potential continued selling pressure or the market entering a correction phase.

The shift of the XRP premium into negative territory indicates declining institutional demand on Coinbase. Meanwhile, the higher XRP price on Binance compared to Coinbase reflects increased retail buying activity outside the United States. If this trend continues, it may signal weakening institutional momentum and the potential for continued price pressure in the near term.

Written by Arab Chain

The Miners' Position Index (MPI) 30-day moving average has recently retreated to levels comparable to the 2024 lows, suggesting a significant cooling of miner-led selling pressure. Given that the MPI is defined as the ratio of total miner outflow to its one-year moving average, a higher value typically warns of potential price drops as miners offload reserves; however, the current suppressed levels indicate that miners are currently moving fewer coins than the yearly average. While it is important to maintain perspective on the indicator's relative nature, this trend points toward a depletion in immediate overhead supply from the mining sector, potentially providing a more stable foundation for Bitcoin's price action in the near term.

Written by nino

If you want to know why these Realized Prices are displayed using candlesticks, I recommend reading the following:

• In this dashboard, I show how the market can be analyzed using the same visual tool (candlesticks) across different areas: price action, derivatives, and on-chain data, thereby unifying the analytical framework. It also includes the history of indicators, their different forms of use, and reference links for further exploration.

• First and foremost, candlesticks are a visual tool for organizing time series data into OHLC format (Open, High, Low, and Close) across different timeframes.

• Under this definition, their application is not limited to price. They can also be used to represent other time series, including on-chain and derivatives metrics.

• It is worth noting that candlesticks applied to on-chain data enable different types of analysis, not just trading analysis. They make it possible to better analyze the effects of technical events on the network, shifts in confidence in exchanges or protocols, etc.

• Check the link below ↓

https://cryptoquant.com/community/dashboard/69706233a662164c84864d2c?e=d_0

Written by _OnChain

With Bitcoin priced at US$ 66.773K, the market is on the eve of the Q1 close, under the shadow of April 6th.

Brent above US$ 100 and the VIX at 30 suggest that TradFi is already pricing in a high probability (70%) of non-cooperation by Iran. Bitcoin, traditionally correlated with technology risk, faces its definitive test: being dragged down by the Nasdaq liquidation or consolidating its neutral store of value thesis.

ON-CHAIN INTERPRETATION: THE INSTITUTIONAL TRENCH

The ascending bottom structure (US$ 66K) over the February floor (US$ 60K) reveals aggressive absorption. Today’s record OTC dominance of 90.23% (vs. SMA90D of 79.26%) confirms that Smart Money has built an insurmountable liquidity trench. While exchange volume (Exchange Share) collapsed to just 9.77% — signaling total retail paralysis — institutional capital accelerated supply capture. The master data point remains the LTH-SOPR at 0.72: the 28% loss capitulation on 03/28 cleared the weak hands, and the Binary CDD at 0.0 (Block Resolution) ratifies that whales are in absolute dormancy.

ASYMMETRY ASSESSMENT: THE TAIL RISK

◾ Stability (65% chance) → The US$ 65K support holds due to the already processed sell-side exhaustion, generating a post-tension Short Squeeze.

◾ Escalation (35% chance) → Open conflict forces BTC to its Realized Price (US$ 54.1K). However, OTC flow suggests that drops below US$ 60K will only be rapid absorption wicks.

VERDICT

The market has already 'bled' before the event; the SOPR at 0.72 suggests that the impact of April 6th may be smaller than the panic projected by retail. The strategy, therefore — even with a favorable scenario being drawn — is to protect your capital and wait for this geopolitical catalyst.

Written by GugaOnChain

With Bitcoin priced at US$ 66.773K, the market is on the eve of the Q1 close, under the shadow of April 6th.

Brent above US$ 100 and the VIX at 30 suggest that TradFi is already pricing in a high probability (70%) of non-cooperation by Iran. Bitcoin, traditionally correlated with technology risk, faces its definitive test: being dragged down by the Nasdaq liquidation or consolidating its neutral store of value thesis.

ON-CHAIN INTERPRETATION: THE INSTITUTIONAL TRENCH

The ascending bottom structure (US$ 66K) over the February floor (US$ 60K) reveals aggressive absorption. Today’s record OTC dominance of 90.23% (vs. SMA90D of 79.26%) confirms that Smart Money has built an insurmountable liquidity trench. While exchange volume (Exchange Share) collapsed to just 9.77% — signaling total retail paralysis — institutional capital accelerated supply capture. The master data point remains the LTH-SOPR at 0.72: the 28% loss capitulation on 03/28 cleared the weak hands, and the Binary CDD at 0.0 (Block Resolution) ratifies that whales are in absolute dormancy.

ASYMMETRY ASSESSMENT: THE TAIL RISK

◾ Stability (65% chance) → The US$ 65K support holds due to the already processed sell-side exhaustion, generating a post-tension Short Squeeze.

◾ Escalation (35% chance) → Open conflict forces BTC to its Realized Price (US$ 54.1K). However, OTC flow suggests that drops below US$ 60K will only be rapid absorption wicks.

VERDICT

The market has already “bled” before the event; the SOPR at 0.72 suggests that the impact of April 6th may be smaller than the panic projected by retail. The strategy, therefore, is to protect already established positions without giving up on gain opportunities.

Bitcoin's price is at a very low level, near structural support, indicating little room for sharp drops. While retail fears Iran, institutions are locking up supply via OTC in preparation for Q2.

Written by GugaOnChain

The Setup Is Forming, But the Signal Isn’t Triggered:

The adjusted NUPL for long-term holders (LTHs) is approaching a critical inflection point, but history suggests the final phase of the cycle is still incomplete.

Across prior cycles, Bitcoin market bottoms have consistently formed only once LTHs were pushed into net unrealized losses, a phase where conviction is tested and capital undergoes sustained stress, typically lasting between 6 (2020 flash crash) and 277 days.

In the current cycle, we are witnessing a rapid compression in profitability. Since the October 6th, 2025 peak, LTH profitability has collapsed from 58% to just 3% in 142 days. This is a sharp and aggressive reset, reflecting a meaningful deterioration in investor positioning and sentiment.

However, despite this drawdown, LTH-NUPL remains marginally above zero.

This is key.

It signals that, while stress is elevated, the cohort has not yet entered the broad capitulation zone historically required to establish durable market bottoms. In other words, capital is uncomfortable, but not yet forced into loss realization.

This distinction matters. Market bottoms are not formed when investors are merely pressured, they form when investors are structurally underwater after watching their accumulated gains fully evaporate and their positions turn into losses.

Until LTHs transition decisively into negative NUPL territory, the probability of a premature bottom remains elevated. The current environment resembles a late-stage stress phase rather than full capitulation.

The opportunity is forming, but the signal has not yet been triggered.

[What to Watch]

Watch for a sustained move of LTH-NUPL below zero accompanied by prolonged compression in price and volatility. This would indicate forced stress and potential capitulation, conditions historically aligned with asymmetric entry points.

Written by MorenoDV_

In 2026, Ethereum is showing clear structural changes. The most notable signal is the sharp increase in “Ethereum: Transaction Count (Total).” While price remains range-bound, network activity is recovering strongly, suggesting this is not speculative, but driven by real usage.

This shift is largely fueled by a renewed focus on DeFi. After capital outflows in 2024–2025 due to regulatory uncertainty and declining yields, liquidity is returning. Increased activity in stablecoin-based liquidity provision, lending, and DEX trading is driving transaction growth. This indicates actual protocol usage rather than mere price expectations.

More importantly, a regulatory shift is unfolding. The CLARITY Act in the U.S. is not just another rule—it represents the first serious attempt to define how DeFi should coexist within the financial system.

Previously, the biggest risk was developer liability. Writing code itself carried legal uncertainty, acting as a structural brake on innovation. The latest draft introduces a safe harbor for non-custodial developers, clarifying that publishing code alone does not make them financial institutions.

This is a turning point. The environment is shifting from “building is risky” to “building within a defined framework.”

Challenges remain, including KYC scope and stablecoin yield restrictions. However, the key shift is that the debate has moved from “ban vs allow” to “how to integrate.”

This change is critical for institutions and developers. Regulatory clarity reduces risk and unlocks capital flows.

Unlike past cycles where price led activity, this cycle shows activity leading price. This suggests a more sustainable early-stage growth phase.

In summary, Ethereum is in a paradox of stagnant price but rising real demand. If on-chain growth continues alongside regulatory clarity, this could mark the early phase of a longer-term structural uptrend.

Written by XWIN Research Japan

Bitcoin’s ahr999x Escape Top Indicator continues to signal that the market is still far from the overheated conditions typically seen near major cycle tops.

The indicator recently recorded a local low of 17.4 on February 24, 2026, when Bitcoin was trading near $63K area.

Since then, the metric has recovered slightly to 20.4 as of March 28, 2026, While BTC has dropped back toward $66K.

What makes this reading more notable is that the current 20.4 level matches the reading last seen on September 7, 2024, when Bitcoin was trading much lower, around $55K .

This suggests that despite Bitcoin having traded at much higher prices during the cycle, the current market structure is still not showing the kind of extreme overheating that usually appears near major tops.

Conclusion:

The three key readings — 20.4 in September 2024, 17.4 in February 2026, and 20.4 again in March 2026 — show that Bitcoin is revisiting historically low Escape Top conditions, even after reaching much higher price levels during the cycle.

This keeps the broader market far from the euphoric extremes typically seen at final tops.

Written by Amr Taha

The latest movement in the Bitcoin Cycle Extreme Oscillator suggests a clear transition phase as momentum fades from prior highs and begins compressing toward the lower range. This shift typically appears during periods where market excess is gradually unwound, rather than aggressively liquidated. Price structure remains relatively stable despite the oscillator declining, which indicates that selling pressure is not driven by panic but by a controlled reduction in speculative positioning.

Looking at historical behavior, similar oscillator drawdowns have often aligned with mid-cycle consolidations. These phases tend to reset leverage across the market while long-term holders maintain their positions, creating a foundation for potential continuation. The absence of extreme readings in the current cycle further reinforces the idea that this market has not experienced the same level of overheating seen in previous peaks, suggesting a more balanced capital flow environment.

From a broader macro lens, Bitcoin continues to hold within a structurally higher range even as momentum indicators weaken. This divergence points toward underlying demand that has not yet been fully disrupted, potentially supported by steady capital inflows and a more mature market structure. Instead of signaling a completed cycle top, the current oscillator position reflects a cooling process where the market is digesting prior gains.

If the oscillator stabilizes and begins forming a higher low in this zone, it would strengthen the case for continuation and possible range expansion in the next phase. On the other hand, a prolonged compression near the lower band may indicate that the market requires additional time to rebuild momentum before any decisive move. At this stage, the data leans toward consolidation within an ongoing cycle rather than a transition into a broader bearish regime.

Written by CryptoZeno

The chart shows the Binance Reserve Realized Price at ~$60,490 currently acting as support for BTC.

This level represents the average realized price of Binance's entire BTC reserve. Below it, the majority of holders within that reserve move into unrealized loss.

This has happened before. In 2022, the Reserve Realized Price sat well above spot price for months. Binance's reserve was partially underwater throughout the bear market, and price kept falling regardless.

But the historical pattern is clear: this region tends to act as a significant support zone. When spot price approaches the Realized Price of major exchanges, profitable sellers thin out and the market finds footing.

The risk right now is simple: if BTC loses $60,490, the narrative shifts. The largest BTC reserve in the world would be mostly in the red — and bear markets tend to deepen exactly when structures like this break.

Written by joaowedson

Recent on-chain data highlights a market structure that remains constructive despite short-term volatility.

Bitcoin is currently trading around or slightly above the Short-Term Holder (STH) Realized Price a key psychological and structural level. Historically, holding above this cost basis suggests that recent buyers are still in profit, reducing immediate sell pressure and supporting trend continuation.

At the same time, the 7-day SOPR is hovering near or just above 1. This indicates that coins moving on-chain are, on average, being spent at a profit, but without extreme overheating. In prior cycles, sustained SOPR > 1 during consolidations often reflects healthy profit-taking rather than distribution-driven tops.

More notably, the 30-day Exchange Netflow shows persistent outflows in recent weeks. This suggests that coins are being withdrawn from exchanges, typically associated with accumulation behavior or long-term holding intentions. The intensity of these outflows resembles early-to-mid bullish phases rather than late-cycle distribution.

From a macro perspective, this combination is important:

Price above STH Realized Price → structural support intact

SOPR stabilizing above 1 → controlled profit realization

Exchange outflows → reduced liquid supply

However, the slight cooling in price alongside declining STH Realized Price slope may indicate a short-term reset phase. If BTC fails to maintain this level, it could trigger a temporary shift in sentiment as short-term holders move back into loss.

Overall, the data leans bullish in the medium term, with current conditions resembling consolidation within an ongoing uptrend rather than a macro top formation.

Written by CryptoZeno

Exchange inflows have resumed over the past three days while open interest continues to rise. At the same time, funding has turned negative again and the Coinbase Premium has dropped further, indicating weak spot demand while derivatives positioning builds ahead.

After a period of strong outflows, exchange netflow has flipped to three consecutive days of inflows, suggesting a short-term increase in potential sell-side liquidity.

Funding, which stayed positive for five days, has now turned negative again, showing that long dominance has weakened and positioning has shifted more cautiously.

Open interest has been steadily increasing from recent lows, reflecting a re-entry of leverage, but remains below prior monthly highs, indicating accumulation rather than full overheating.

The Coinbase Premium has declined further into negative territory, signaling continued weakness in US spot demand.

Meanwhile, the Korea Premium has returned to positive, highlighting a regional divergence in demand rather than broad-based spot strength.

From an on-chain perspective, the market leans neutral to slightly bearish. Rising exchange inflows and weakening US spot demand suggest increasing short-term sell pressure.

At the same time, open interest is rising while funding turns negative, implying that short or hedging positions may be building rather than aggressive longs.

In probability terms, the short-term outlook is roughly 55% neutral-to-bearish versus 45% chance of a rebound driven by a short squeeze.

Written by CoinNiel

BTC trades at $66,109.73 (-4.23% 24h, -6.26% 7d) under the weight of the "Grey Swan," the known and identified risk of April 6th. Unlike a Black Swan, the instability in the Middle East and Brent above $103 are already on the radar. This geopolitical deadline is a watershed moment: if the war escalates, the correlation with the NASDAQ will drag Bitcoin down, potentially breaking the $65k support toward the Realized Price of $54,000, our last line of cyclical defense.

In protection mode, the rule is clear: you don’t guess the bottom while cannons roar. The focus now is capital preservation. However, data reveals a robust Positive Asymmetry: the Exchange Stablecoins Ratio USD is at 1.51, signaling the strongest liquidity solidity of the last 24 months (versus the 5.38 at the 2024 top). While retail fears oil, whales are loaded with "dry powder."

CURRENT STRATEGY → "Smarter Money" awaits the outcome of the geopolitical deadline. Let the 1.51 Ratio act as a safety net and only enter the battlefield when the smoke of April clears.

REAL-TIME DEFENSE CHECKLIST

◾Ratio 1.51 stable or falling → Great. Indicates that the safety net is being reinforced with more stablecoins entering or capital remaining on exchanges, confirming that investors are capitalized to absorb drops (buy the dip).

◾Ratio rising (e.g., 1.60 -> 1.80) → MAXIMUM ALERT. A signal of flight to Fiat (dollars leaving exchanges) or BTC entering massively for sale. In this scenario, the risk of a sharp correction increases, as any sell trigger will not find immediate buying support.

VERDICT → BTC is structurally cheap and defended by record liquidity, but prudence ensures capital survives for a likely post-tension rally.

Written by GugaOnChain

Bitcoin has lost 33% of its value since October 2025. Looking at historical bear cycles, this number isn't unusual: the 2017-18 bear saw an 84% drawdown, the 2021-22 bear hit 77%, and the current 2025+ cycle sits at 33% so far. This correction isn't deep by historical standards — but history also reminds us that the 40-70% range is still on the table.

As of March 24, 2026, the key whale cost basis levels tell a clear story. New Whales (<155d) sit at $82.8K — acting as resistance well above current price. Binance User Deposit Address at $58.9K and Miner Whales at $55.9K remain the first serious support zone below.

With BTC now at $66K, the price is deep underwater for new whales. A sustained recovery is difficult as long as this group remains in loss.

The STH cost map as of March 26 confirms the same picture. STH Realized Price (overall) sits at $86.9K, STH 1M-3M at $82.6K, STH 3M-6M at $96K, SMA365 at $97.7K — all acting as resistance. The only nearby level in play is STH 1W-1M at $70.1K, which now sits above current price at $66K. Realized Price at $54.3K remains the macro support floor.

Every major cost cluster is overhead. Until we see a weekly close above $86.9K, these are the levels to watch — nothing more, nothing less.

Written by burakkesmeci