Exchange inflows have resumed over the past three days while open interest continues to rise. At the same time, funding has turned negative again and the Coinbase Premium has dropped further, indicating weak spot demand while derivatives positioning builds ahead.
After a period of strong outflows, exchange netflow has flipped to three consecutive days of inflows, suggesting a short-term increase in potential sell-side liquidity.
Funding, which stayed positive for five days, has now turned negative again, showing that long dominance has weakened and positioning has shifted more cautiously.
Open interest has been steadily increasing from recent lows, reflecting a re-entry of leverage, but remains below prior monthly highs, indicating accumulation rather than full overheating.
The Coinbase Premium has declined further into negative territory, signaling continued weakness in US spot demand.
Meanwhile, the Korea Premium has returned to positive, highlighting a regional divergence in demand rather than broad-based spot strength.
From an on-chain perspective, the market leans neutral to slightly bearish. Rising exchange inflows and weakening US spot demand suggest increasing short-term sell pressure.
At the same time, open interest is rising while funding turns negative, implying that short or hedging positions may be building rather than aggressive longs.
In probability terms, the short-term outlook is roughly 55% neutral-to-bearish versus 45% chance of a rebound driven by a short squeeze.
Written by CoinNiel