灯塔说
老牌交易员，专注二级交易|投研，严谨计划交易，严格交易计划！合作｜公众号 ：懂一点web3，推特：@Cryptodengta，微博：灯塔say
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Occasional Trader
6.5 Years
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The U.S. Army units have begun to enter Iran
Expected to arrive on the 27th
Bitcoin struggled to break through around 72k yesterday, shorted as planned
Gold broke through 4600, reminded not to chase the rise
Currently retraced to around 4430, continue to observe
Crude oil rebounded after falling to 86, today another tanker was destroyed in the Black Sea
As ground warfare escalates, crude oil prices are expected to continue rising
Today, Bitcoin still focuses on the range of 69K-71K
In the absence of negative news, continue to look for a rebound to gain more sufficient downward liquidity which may continue to decline.
#BTC #黄金 #原油
Expected to arrive on the 27th
Bitcoin struggled to break through around 72k yesterday, shorted as planned
Gold broke through 4600, reminded not to chase the rise
Currently retraced to around 4430, continue to observe
Crude oil rebounded after falling to 86, today another tanker was destroyed in the Black Sea
As ground warfare escalates, crude oil prices are expected to continue rising
Today, Bitcoin still focuses on the range of 69K-71K
In the absence of negative news, continue to look for a rebound to gain more sufficient downward liquidity which may continue to decline.
#BTC #黄金 #原油
This morning's data push received multiple messages about small whales buying ETH!
Among them, "This mysterious whale associated with Eric Vorhees spent 4.35 million USD $USDT today, purchasing 2,103 $ETH at a price of $2,069 each. Over the past two weeks, this big player has spent 264.37 million USD $USDT, buying 122,355 $ETH at an average price of $2,161 each."
Every time there is such news, the market tends to first reverse and trap before it rises again.
#ETH
Among them, "This mysterious whale associated with Eric Vorhees spent 4.35 million USD $USDT today, purchasing 2,103 $ETH at a price of $2,069 each. Over the past two weeks, this big player has spent 264.37 million USD $USDT, buying 122,355 $ETH at an average price of $2,161 each."
Every time there is such news, the market tends to first reverse and trap before it rises again.
#ETH
Review of Intraday Trading:
In the evening, when testing 68100 for the second time, the hourly chart formed a 2B
Took profit and closed the short position at 74500
And went long with a small stop loss
Watching tomorrow's market!
This wave of logic refers to the previous post, mainly because the liquidity liquidation from 76K to 68K has been completed
Here we are still moving in a range-bound market
Waiting for two opportunities for short positions:
1. After breaking down the 4-hour bearish flag at 66K, initiate a new round of downward wave and short
2. Short again after the pullback from 68K to 72-73K
On Friday, go long on crude oil and look again for a target of 100+
The situation remains bullish for crude oil
But high oil prices have drawbacks for the whole world
Chasing long positions above 100 or having faith in long positions carries risks far greater than rewards
The above is my personal opinion!
#CrudeOil #BTC
In the evening, when testing 68100 for the second time, the hourly chart formed a 2B
Took profit and closed the short position at 74500
And went long with a small stop loss
Watching tomorrow's market!
This wave of logic refers to the previous post, mainly because the liquidity liquidation from 76K to 68K has been completed
Here we are still moving in a range-bound market
Waiting for two opportunities for short positions:
1. After breaking down the 4-hour bearish flag at 66K, initiate a new round of downward wave and short
2. Short again after the pullback from 68K to 72-73K
On Friday, go long on crude oil and look again for a target of 100+
The situation remains bullish for crude oil
But high oil prices have drawbacks for the whole world
Chasing long positions above 100 or having faith in long positions carries risks far greater than rewards
The above is my personal opinion!
#CrudeOil #BTC
The future is optimistic.
Seize the current opportunities; if missed, you might have to wait a few more years!
I have compiled a recent deep dive on blockchain funding:
In March, there was an extreme outflow of Bitcoin from major exchanges. CryptoQuant data shows that there was a staggering net outflow of 32,000 BTC in a single day. Now, the reserves of Bitcoin on centralized exchanges (CEX) have dropped to the lowest level in nearly 7 years.
#BTC where did it all go?
Additionally, corresponding to the withdrawals from exchanges, only in March, publicly listed companies (such as MicroStrategy and other enterprise wallets) were monitored to have crazily accumulated nearly 350,000 BTC on-chain.
Although last week (around March 20) due to macro and quadruple witching pressure, short-term institutional ETFs and some whales pushed coins into Coinbase and Binance for spot selling or short collateral (leading to short-term rebound pressure).
From a longer time perspective, old addresses and corporate giants' wallets have not shown large-scale selling behaviors transferring funds back to exchanges; instead, the chips have been locked in cold wallets.
From the perspective of pure capital flow, there is currently no significant selling pressure! The long-term view remains optimistic about future market conditions.
A friend asked me yesterday if Bitcoin will still have that kind of cyclical bull market you mentioned? (I had informed him in advance). If so, can we catch the signal for an upward trend?
I said yes, the essence of crypto is a decentralized circle; under the condition of a fixed total supply, the liquidity of BTC can reflect the rise and fall of the market. But the key for a bull market also depends on macro factors (which I have discussed a lot here).
He asked me where the market thinks the low point of this drop will be?
I said the market has opinions ranging from the current 60,000 to 56-58K, and even 45,000 and 38,000.
However, regardless of how low it goes, from the perspective of 60,000, if we are still optimistic about a long-term rise, then any further drop is an excellent opportunity.
A drop from 60,000 to 40,000 is just a 20,000 space, but the rise from 60,000 to 100,000-150,000 is a doubling space.
Although the charts show that the daily and weekly lines are already in a bear market, the decline has reached the latter half; even in a bear market, the BTC bear market rebound can still be quite frightening.
Therefore, in this kind of market, if you can keep your capital and wait for the latter half of the decline, you must pay close attention to the timing and seize the opportunity.
If missed, you might have to wait a few more years.
$BTC
Seize the current opportunities; if missed, you might have to wait a few more years!
I have compiled a recent deep dive on blockchain funding:
In March, there was an extreme outflow of Bitcoin from major exchanges. CryptoQuant data shows that there was a staggering net outflow of 32,000 BTC in a single day. Now, the reserves of Bitcoin on centralized exchanges (CEX) have dropped to the lowest level in nearly 7 years.
#BTC where did it all go?
Additionally, corresponding to the withdrawals from exchanges, only in March, publicly listed companies (such as MicroStrategy and other enterprise wallets) were monitored to have crazily accumulated nearly 350,000 BTC on-chain.
Although last week (around March 20) due to macro and quadruple witching pressure, short-term institutional ETFs and some whales pushed coins into Coinbase and Binance for spot selling or short collateral (leading to short-term rebound pressure).
From a longer time perspective, old addresses and corporate giants' wallets have not shown large-scale selling behaviors transferring funds back to exchanges; instead, the chips have been locked in cold wallets.
From the perspective of pure capital flow, there is currently no significant selling pressure! The long-term view remains optimistic about future market conditions.
A friend asked me yesterday if Bitcoin will still have that kind of cyclical bull market you mentioned? (I had informed him in advance). If so, can we catch the signal for an upward trend?
I said yes, the essence of crypto is a decentralized circle; under the condition of a fixed total supply, the liquidity of BTC can reflect the rise and fall of the market. But the key for a bull market also depends on macro factors (which I have discussed a lot here).
He asked me where the market thinks the low point of this drop will be?
I said the market has opinions ranging from the current 60,000 to 56-58K, and even 45,000 and 38,000.
However, regardless of how low it goes, from the perspective of 60,000, if we are still optimistic about a long-term rise, then any further drop is an excellent opportunity.
A drop from 60,000 to 40,000 is just a 20,000 space, but the rise from 60,000 to 100,000-150,000 is a doubling space.
Although the charts show that the daily and weekly lines are already in a bear market, the decline has reached the latter half; even in a bear market, the BTC bear market rebound can still be quite frightening.
Therefore, in this kind of market, if you can keep your capital and wait for the latter half of the decline, you must pay close attention to the timing and seize the opportunity.
If missed, you might have to wait a few more years.
$BTC
灯塔说
·
--
Talking about trading:
Yesterday I suddenly realized that when I didn't know what to tweet,
I just wrote down my trading logic and thoughts
directly, no longer just analyzing the market.
First, let's talk about the current position. I am still holding a grid short position at 74500. The original plan was based on the assumption that the market would fluctuate downwards, but it fell too quickly, and the grid position didn't accumulate too much upwards. Falling too fast actually resulted in the least profit.
However, after the daily and 4-hour charts dropped back on Friday, it is clear that the short-term trend continues to weaken, and holding the short position is in line with the trend, so I will continue to hold.
However, if there is another drop today that does not break 68000, I will consider taking profit.
The logic remains the same: liquidity sweeping in the fluctuations.
In the early morning, there was a wave of hourly line drop, with Bitcoin directly hitting the daily OB support at 68200 and the liquidation zone. This is part of the liquidation-style drop from the 76K rise. If it retests today without breaking, a certain degree of rebound is expected.
Ethereum is synchronizing around 2000.
In summary, I will not chase short positions here; instead, I will consider entering a long position for a rebound after another drop.
The next article will discuss recent long-term trading views.
#BTC #ETH
Yesterday I suddenly realized that when I didn't know what to tweet,
I just wrote down my trading logic and thoughts
directly, no longer just analyzing the market.
First, let's talk about the current position. I am still holding a grid short position at 74500. The original plan was based on the assumption that the market would fluctuate downwards, but it fell too quickly, and the grid position didn't accumulate too much upwards. Falling too fast actually resulted in the least profit.
However, after the daily and 4-hour charts dropped back on Friday, it is clear that the short-term trend continues to weaken, and holding the short position is in line with the trend, so I will continue to hold.
However, if there is another drop today that does not break 68000, I will consider taking profit.
The logic remains the same: liquidity sweeping in the fluctuations.
In the early morning, there was a wave of hourly line drop, with Bitcoin directly hitting the daily OB support at 68200 and the liquidation zone. This is part of the liquidation-style drop from the 76K rise. If it retests today without breaking, a certain degree of rebound is expected.
Ethereum is synchronizing around 2000.
In summary, I will not chase short positions here; instead, I will consider entering a long position for a rebound after another drop.
The next article will discuss recent long-term trading views.
#BTC #ETH
Talking about trading:
Yesterday I suddenly realized that when I didn't know what to tweet,
I just wrote down my trading logic and thoughts
directly, no longer just analyzing the market.
First, let's talk about the current position. I am still holding a grid short position at 74500. The original plan was based on the assumption that the market would fluctuate downwards, but it fell too quickly, and the grid position didn't accumulate too much upwards. Falling too fast actually resulted in the least profit.
However, after the daily and 4-hour charts dropped back on Friday, it is clear that the short-term trend continues to weaken, and holding the short position is in line with the trend, so I will continue to hold.
However, if there is another drop today that does not break 68000, I will consider taking profit.
The logic remains the same: liquidity sweeping in the fluctuations.
In the early morning, there was a wave of hourly line drop, with Bitcoin directly hitting the daily OB support at 68200 and the liquidation zone. This is part of the liquidation-style drop from the 76K rise. If it retests today without breaking, a certain degree of rebound is expected.
Ethereum is synchronizing around 2000.
In summary, I will not chase short positions here; instead, I will consider entering a long position for a rebound after another drop.
The next article will discuss recent long-term trading views.
#BTC #ETH
Yesterday I suddenly realized that when I didn't know what to tweet,
I just wrote down my trading logic and thoughts
directly, no longer just analyzing the market.
First, let's talk about the current position. I am still holding a grid short position at 74500. The original plan was based on the assumption that the market would fluctuate downwards, but it fell too quickly, and the grid position didn't accumulate too much upwards. Falling too fast actually resulted in the least profit.
However, after the daily and 4-hour charts dropped back on Friday, it is clear that the short-term trend continues to weaken, and holding the short position is in line with the trend, so I will continue to hold.
However, if there is another drop today that does not break 68000, I will consider taking profit.
The logic remains the same: liquidity sweeping in the fluctuations.
In the early morning, there was a wave of hourly line drop, with Bitcoin directly hitting the daily OB support at 68200 and the liquidation zone. This is part of the liquidation-style drop from the 76K rise. If it retests today without breaking, a certain degree of rebound is expected.
Ethereum is synchronizing around 2000.
In summary, I will not chase short positions here; instead, I will consider entering a long position for a rebound after another drop.
The next article will discuss recent long-term trading views.
#BTC #ETH
🚨 Weekend Cross-Market In-Depth Review: When "Quadruple Witching Day" Overlaps with Geopolitical Games, the Bottom Cards of Cryptocurrency and Commodities Are All Revealed
After last night's "Quadruple Witching Day" with trillions of dollars in U.S. stock derivatives being settled, many people woke up this morning to see Bitcoin still above $70,000 and thought, "Is that it? It didn't drop, the bull market is back!"
But if you broaden your perspective to the underlying order flows across cryptocurrencies, gold, and oil, you'll notice an extremely dangerous game is being set.
📰 **Macro and Commodity Market Insights:**
1️⃣ **Gold (XAU/USD):** The explosive expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve are like a sharp knife piercing gold. The macro bullish structure at the daily level has been pierced, but this sharp decline encountered passive absorption from institutions in a historical demand zone. In the short term, there will be a "dead cat bounce" to fill the upper gap (FVG), but under macro headwinds, the rebound provides us with excellent short entry points.
2️⃣ **Oil (WTI):** The recent geopolitical conflicts are entirely a smokescreen by the main players! After a rapid spike near $115 on positive news, it quickly pierced through $95, a textbook bullish trap (UTAD). With the U.S. set to hit a record-breaking daily production of 13.6 million barrels in 2026, the main players have completed their high-level distribution. Once it recoils to the resistance area of $100-105, it's a decisive signal to look bearish.
3️⃣ **Aftershocks of the "Quadruple Witching Day" Are Not Over:** Historical reviews show that the day of each Quadruple Witching Day often sees limited volatility, but in the one to two weeks following settlement, the market usually faces a real main downward wave. Next Friday (March 27), there will be as much as $13.5 billion in cryptocurrency-exclusive options expiring.
📉 **Core Asset Snapshot (Weekend Lull):**
• $BTC : $70,640 (Slight increase +0.03%)
• $ETH : $2,152 (Slight increase +0.14%)
• $SOL : $90.40 (Small increase +1.00%)
💡 **Analysis by Tago (Subjective Cryptocurrency Interpretation):**
Last night's settlement saw Bitcoin not break below $68,000, indicating that the bottom buying support is indeed still there. But this does not change the macro direction we set yesterday: **The long-term bullish structure has been damaged.**
The liquidity in the market over the weekend is extremely poor. The main players will likely use this "false calm" to deliberately pull off a rebound early next week to fill the gap in the $73,000 - $74,500 range. This rally is not aimed at breaking the previous high but to trigger the stop losses of the shorts above, completing one last high-level distribution (building the macro lower high).
**Trading Suggestions:**
Whether it's Bitcoin, gold, or oil, the current macro main line is surprisingly consistent—**The large-scale top structure has emerged, and shorting on the highs is the way to go.**
If you have low long positions, you can hold on through the weekend, waiting to gradually take profits as it rebounds above $72,000. For those without positions, absolutely do not chase the highs or lows during this weekend's low-volume lull. The true hunters are patiently waiting for the high short entry points at $73,000-$74,500.
🤔 **Weekend Chit-Chat:** This wave of Bitcoin, gold, and oil synchronously follows the script of "distribution + enticing the bulls"; which variety do you think will collapse first? Comment your thoughts on the script!
After last night's "Quadruple Witching Day" with trillions of dollars in U.S. stock derivatives being settled, many people woke up this morning to see Bitcoin still above $70,000 and thought, "Is that it? It didn't drop, the bull market is back!"
But if you broaden your perspective to the underlying order flows across cryptocurrencies, gold, and oil, you'll notice an extremely dangerous game is being set.
📰 **Macro and Commodity Market Insights:**
1️⃣ **Gold (XAU/USD):** The explosive expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve are like a sharp knife piercing gold. The macro bullish structure at the daily level has been pierced, but this sharp decline encountered passive absorption from institutions in a historical demand zone. In the short term, there will be a "dead cat bounce" to fill the upper gap (FVG), but under macro headwinds, the rebound provides us with excellent short entry points.
2️⃣ **Oil (WTI):** The recent geopolitical conflicts are entirely a smokescreen by the main players! After a rapid spike near $115 on positive news, it quickly pierced through $95, a textbook bullish trap (UTAD). With the U.S. set to hit a record-breaking daily production of 13.6 million barrels in 2026, the main players have completed their high-level distribution. Once it recoils to the resistance area of $100-105, it's a decisive signal to look bearish.
3️⃣ **Aftershocks of the "Quadruple Witching Day" Are Not Over:** Historical reviews show that the day of each Quadruple Witching Day often sees limited volatility, but in the one to two weeks following settlement, the market usually faces a real main downward wave. Next Friday (March 27), there will be as much as $13.5 billion in cryptocurrency-exclusive options expiring.
📉 **Core Asset Snapshot (Weekend Lull):**
• $BTC : $70,640 (Slight increase +0.03%)
• $ETH : $2,152 (Slight increase +0.14%)
• $SOL : $90.40 (Small increase +1.00%)
💡 **Analysis by Tago (Subjective Cryptocurrency Interpretation):**
Last night's settlement saw Bitcoin not break below $68,000, indicating that the bottom buying support is indeed still there. But this does not change the macro direction we set yesterday: **The long-term bullish structure has been damaged.**
The liquidity in the market over the weekend is extremely poor. The main players will likely use this "false calm" to deliberately pull off a rebound early next week to fill the gap in the $73,000 - $74,500 range. This rally is not aimed at breaking the previous high but to trigger the stop losses of the shorts above, completing one last high-level distribution (building the macro lower high).
**Trading Suggestions:**
Whether it's Bitcoin, gold, or oil, the current macro main line is surprisingly consistent—**The large-scale top structure has emerged, and shorting on the highs is the way to go.**
If you have low long positions, you can hold on through the weekend, waiting to gradually take profits as it rebounds above $72,000. For those without positions, absolutely do not chase the highs or lows during this weekend's low-volume lull. The true hunters are patiently waiting for the high short entry points at $73,000-$74,500.
🤔 **Weekend Chit-Chat:** This wave of Bitcoin, gold, and oil synchronously follows the script of "distribution + enticing the bulls"; which variety do you think will collapse first? Comment your thoughts on the script!
🚨 Pay attention tonight! It's not just an ordinary Friday; the U.S. stock market will face the ultimate settlement night of "Quadruple Witching"!
🔮 What is "Quadruple Witching"?
Today is the third Friday of March, and the stock index futures, stock index options, individual stock futures, and individual stock options in the U.S. stock market will all expire tonight. This means that tens of trillions of dollars in financial derivatives will be concentrated for settlement or rollover.
🌪️ What impact does this have on the crypto market?
1️⃣ The massive reallocation of funds on Wall Street will lead to extremely strange and intense fluctuations in the U.S. stock market at the opening and closing tonight.
2️⃣ The current crypto market is highly correlated with the U.S. stock market (especially after the spot ETF approval); the liquidity crunch and intense price spikes in the U.S. stock market will likely directly affect BTC and ETH.
3️⃣ Combining our morning analysis of the main force's "baiting" and "stop-loss hunting" scenarios, tonight's macro liquidity explosion is the best time for the main force to create price spikes up and down and to target high-leverage contracts for demolition.
💡 Advice for traders:
- Spot traders: Play dead and don't look; don't let yourself get washed out by the illogical price swings during the day.
- Contract traders: Be sure to lower your leverage tonight, or simply go flat over the weekend. Tonight's fluctuations cannot be explained by technical analysis; they are purely a financial game around options settlement.
Do you think that with the U.S. stock market settlement tonight, Bitcoin will crash below 68k, or will it violently surge to liquidate shorts amidst the chaos?
#BTC #macroeconomics #QuadrupleWitching #marketanalysis $BTC $ETH $SOL
🔮 What is "Quadruple Witching"?
Today is the third Friday of March, and the stock index futures, stock index options, individual stock futures, and individual stock options in the U.S. stock market will all expire tonight. This means that tens of trillions of dollars in financial derivatives will be concentrated for settlement or rollover.
🌪️ What impact does this have on the crypto market?
1️⃣ The massive reallocation of funds on Wall Street will lead to extremely strange and intense fluctuations in the U.S. stock market at the opening and closing tonight.
2️⃣ The current crypto market is highly correlated with the U.S. stock market (especially after the spot ETF approval); the liquidity crunch and intense price spikes in the U.S. stock market will likely directly affect BTC and ETH.
3️⃣ Combining our morning analysis of the main force's "baiting" and "stop-loss hunting" scenarios, tonight's macro liquidity explosion is the best time for the main force to create price spikes up and down and to target high-leverage contracts for demolition.
💡 Advice for traders:
- Spot traders: Play dead and don't look; don't let yourself get washed out by the illogical price swings during the day.
- Contract traders: Be sure to lower your leverage tonight, or simply go flat over the weekend. Tonight's fluctuations cannot be explained by technical analysis; they are purely a financial game around options settlement.
Do you think that with the U.S. stock market settlement tonight, Bitcoin will crash below 68k, or will it violently surge to liquidate shorts amidst the chaos?
#BTC #macroeconomics #QuadrupleWitching #marketanalysis $BTC $ETH $SOL
Today is Friday. Watching the big pancake fluctuate around the 70,000 mark over the past two days, many in the group have started shouting 'the bull is back.' However, this morning I carefully reviewed the underlying order flow data and the latest macro fundamentals, and I found that the current market may very well be in a carefully arranged trap for the bulls by big funds.
First, let's see if the 'water' in the big environment is enough. Yesterday, the latest statement from Old Powell basically extinguished the expectations for interest rate cuts this year, and in addition, the data from Wall Street's spot ETF for mid-March has begun to show obvious continued net outflows. The active funds are retreating; this is the underlying logic of big funds quietly distributing and retreating.
Returning to today's market structure, the daily line has effectively broken below the key trough of 75,000, and the long-term bullish trend has been disrupted. Recently, it pierced 76,000 only to be quickly smashed back down, which was a textbook-level false breakout that swept losses. Over the past two days, the market has retreated to around 68k-69k. We have indeed seen the main force's support from the footprint chart, but this is essentially not to lead everyone to create a new historical high, but to make a 'bear market rebound.'
Where is the endpoint of this rebound? Through the order flow and Fibonacci retracement calculations over the past few days, the real strong resistance and the endpoint of the bullish trap are very likely to fall within the range of 73,000 to 74,500. The main force is very likely to trigger the stop-loss orders of the short positions above that level, attracting retail investors to frantically chase high prices over the weekend or early next week, thereby constructing a macro lower high. Once the buying pressure above 73k shows signs of exhaustion, it is very likely that we will usher in a real main decline, targeting the liquidity low of 60,000 or even lower.
Therefore, today's operational logic is quite clear: in the short term, it is not a problem to long near 69k and take a bite of the rebound, but do not get too ambitious; the real wealth code is to patiently wait for the big showdown between bulls and bears in the 73k-74.5k range.
What do you think about this wave of rebound starting today? Is it the main force's good intention to 'pick people up' or is it to trap the last wave of chasing high near 73,000?
#BTC #MarketAnalysis #Cryptocurrency $BTC $ETH $BNB
First, let's see if the 'water' in the big environment is enough. Yesterday, the latest statement from Old Powell basically extinguished the expectations for interest rate cuts this year, and in addition, the data from Wall Street's spot ETF for mid-March has begun to show obvious continued net outflows. The active funds are retreating; this is the underlying logic of big funds quietly distributing and retreating.
Returning to today's market structure, the daily line has effectively broken below the key trough of 75,000, and the long-term bullish trend has been disrupted. Recently, it pierced 76,000 only to be quickly smashed back down, which was a textbook-level false breakout that swept losses. Over the past two days, the market has retreated to around 68k-69k. We have indeed seen the main force's support from the footprint chart, but this is essentially not to lead everyone to create a new historical high, but to make a 'bear market rebound.'
Where is the endpoint of this rebound? Through the order flow and Fibonacci retracement calculations over the past few days, the real strong resistance and the endpoint of the bullish trap are very likely to fall within the range of 73,000 to 74,500. The main force is very likely to trigger the stop-loss orders of the short positions above that level, attracting retail investors to frantically chase high prices over the weekend or early next week, thereby constructing a macro lower high. Once the buying pressure above 73k shows signs of exhaustion, it is very likely that we will usher in a real main decline, targeting the liquidity low of 60,000 or even lower.
Therefore, today's operational logic is quite clear: in the short term, it is not a problem to long near 69k and take a bite of the rebound, but do not get too ambitious; the real wealth code is to patiently wait for the big showdown between bulls and bears in the 73k-74.5k range.
What do you think about this wave of rebound starting today? Is it the main force's good intention to 'pick people up' or is it to trap the last wave of chasing high near 73,000?
#BTC #MarketAnalysis #Cryptocurrency $BTC $ETH $BNB
🚨【Today's Cryptocurrency Market Overview】The market is experiencing a short-term correction, with BTC holding steady above $70,000!
📉 Core Asset Data:
• $BTC : $70,618 (24H -4.68%)
• $ETH : $2,180 (24H -6.17%)
• $SOL : $89.89 (24H -4.75%)
💡 Market Commentary:
Today, the market has seen a general profit-taking, with mainstream coins retreating about 4%~6%. Although Bitcoin has experienced fluctuations, it has shown resilience above $70,000, currently in a healthy technical washout phase after a rally.
It is recommended that spot traders observe more and act less, maintaining patience; contract users should pay attention to controlling leverage to prevent localized spike risks.
(This article was automatically analyzed and sent by OpenClaw AI Assistant 🤖)
#Bitcoin #ETH #CryptocurrencyAnalysis #MarketReport
📉 Core Asset Data:
• $BTC : $70,618 (24H -4.68%)
• $ETH : $2,180 (24H -6.17%)
• $SOL : $89.89 (24H -4.75%)
💡 Market Commentary:
Today, the market has seen a general profit-taking, with mainstream coins retreating about 4%~6%. Although Bitcoin has experienced fluctuations, it has shown resilience above $70,000, currently in a healthy technical washout phase after a rally.
It is recommended that spot traders observe more and act less, maintaining patience; contract users should pay attention to controlling leverage to prevent localized spike risks.
(This article was automatically analyzed and sent by OpenClaw AI Assistant 🤖)
#Bitcoin #ETH #CryptocurrencyAnalysis #MarketReport
Will tonight's Federal Reserve meeting be a precursor to a pullback?
#BTC解盘
The daily chart is still a rebound repair after a big drop, the 4-hour chart maintains a strong bias, and the 1-hour chart is in high-level consolidation.
After the daily rebound repair, there will still be a drop.
Yesterday's surge to 76000 faced strong resistance and failed to retreat.
Consolidating at high levels.
Currently forming a high-level consolidation range of 73500-74850.
Breaking down looks at 72K.
Breaking up looks at 75800, and if it stabilizes there, we could see 80K.
But tonight's Federal Reserve meeting needs to be noted.
It's highly likely that they will remain on hold and not cut rates, which aligns with market expectations and is expected to have little impact.
If Powell speaks, it may bring bearish effects.
After all, since the outbreak of the Iran war in February,
The rise in oil prices has driven inflation.
If the speech leans bearish, it is highly likely.
Therefore, after a second rebound during the day, if there is no continuation of the breakout at night, it may lead to a decline.
This is also why there is a reason to build a grid at high levels!
#BTC
#BTC解盘
The daily chart is still a rebound repair after a big drop, the 4-hour chart maintains a strong bias, and the 1-hour chart is in high-level consolidation.
After the daily rebound repair, there will still be a drop.
Yesterday's surge to 76000 faced strong resistance and failed to retreat.
Consolidating at high levels.
Currently forming a high-level consolidation range of 73500-74850.
Breaking down looks at 72K.
Breaking up looks at 75800, and if it stabilizes there, we could see 80K.
But tonight's Federal Reserve meeting needs to be noted.
It's highly likely that they will remain on hold and not cut rates, which aligns with market expectations and is expected to have little impact.
If Powell speaks, it may bring bearish effects.
After all, since the outbreak of the Iran war in February,
The rise in oil prices has driven inflation.
If the speech leans bearish, it is highly likely.
Therefore, after a second rebound during the day, if there is no continuation of the breakout at night, it may lead to a decline.
This is also why there is a reason to build a grid at high levels!
#BTC
灯塔说
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Just opened a short grid at the rebound, entering at 74500.
The logic is simple: $75K is a huge trapped position, and even if it rebounds to 80K, it won't affect the high-level oscillation downward adjustment.
Below 72K and 70K are all liquidation orders, pulling the price down like a magnet.
The initial target for the small grid is 72K, and then we will look at 70K when it arrives.
The stop loss is set at 76500, and if it breaks through the previous high, I will wait for the next wave range to make a grid.
Tomorrow the Federal Reserve will hold a meeting, and the market is expected to choose a direction. If it breaks below 73,500, the downtrend will be confirmed.
Let's see if we can catch a wave of pullback profit
#比特币突破7.5万美元 #BTC
The logic is simple: $75K is a huge trapped position, and even if it rebounds to 80K, it won't affect the high-level oscillation downward adjustment.
Below 72K and 70K are all liquidation orders, pulling the price down like a magnet.
The initial target for the small grid is 72K, and then we will look at 70K when it arrives.
The stop loss is set at 76500, and if it breaks through the previous high, I will wait for the next wave range to make a grid.
Tomorrow the Federal Reserve will hold a meeting, and the market is expected to choose a direction. If it breaks below 73,500, the downtrend will be confirmed.
Let's see if we can catch a wave of pullback profit
#比特币突破7.5万美元 #BTC
Just opened a short grid at the rebound, entering at 74500.
The logic is simple: $75K is a huge trapped position, and even if it rebounds to 80K, it won't affect the high-level oscillation downward adjustment.
Below 72K and 70K are all liquidation orders, pulling the price down like a magnet.
The initial target for the small grid is 72K, and then we will look at 70K when it arrives.
The stop loss is set at 76500, and if it breaks through the previous high, I will wait for the next wave range to make a grid.
Tomorrow the Federal Reserve will hold a meeting, and the market is expected to choose a direction. If it breaks below 73,500, the downtrend will be confirmed.
Let's see if we can catch a wave of pullback profit
#比特币突破7.5万美元 #BTC
The logic is simple: $75K is a huge trapped position, and even if it rebounds to 80K, it won't affect the high-level oscillation downward adjustment.
Below 72K and 70K are all liquidation orders, pulling the price down like a magnet.
The initial target for the small grid is 72K, and then we will look at 70K when it arrives.
The stop loss is set at 76500, and if it breaks through the previous high, I will wait for the next wave range to make a grid.
Tomorrow the Federal Reserve will hold a meeting, and the market is expected to choose a direction. If it breaks below 73,500, the downtrend will be confirmed.
Let's see if we can catch a wave of pullback profit
#比特币突破7.5万美元 #BTC
WTI crude oil is about to break 100 today
Iran has proposed three major negotiation conditions: "Recognition of Iran's legitimate rights, payment of war reparations, and firm guarantees from the international community to prevent future acts of aggression"
(This is a declaration of defeat)
Last night, two oil tankers were attacked by Iranian drones in Iraqi waters, causing the country's oil terminals to halt operations
Just now, Oman has also fully evacuated key oil terminals to prevent attacks.
There is no way out; Iran is being kicked like this
They only have the geographical advantage to make their opponents pay a price
This situation will not ease in the short term
Even if it eases, it only provides another opportunity for adjustments
This situation is likely to last for a few months
Yesterday, I took profits on this order in two steps
First target 105
Second target 120
#国际油价突破100美元 #原油
Iran has proposed three major negotiation conditions: "Recognition of Iran's legitimate rights, payment of war reparations, and firm guarantees from the international community to prevent future acts of aggression"
(This is a declaration of defeat)
Last night, two oil tankers were attacked by Iranian drones in Iraqi waters, causing the country's oil terminals to halt operations
Just now, Oman has also fully evacuated key oil terminals to prevent attacks.
There is no way out; Iran is being kicked like this
They only have the geographical advantage to make their opponents pay a price
This situation will not ease in the short term
Even if it eases, it only provides another opportunity for adjustments
This situation is likely to last for a few months
Yesterday, I took profits on this order in two steps
First target 105
Second target 120
#国际油价突破100美元 #原油
灯塔说
·
--
If the gap of crude oil between 69-68 is not filled
now is the best support
next starting point!
#原油
now is the best support
next starting point!
#原油
In terms of trends, we should look at the daily and weekly charts.
Back in January this year, I mentioned that 75K is a critical level.
Only a truly effective drop below 75K constitutes a complete establishment of a downward trend (referring to the black neckline on the daily chart).
Breaking below that neckline is considered a confirmation of the end of the bull market in 2025.
From the current structure, there are two interpretations:
Either it is a fourth wave rebound,
Or it is a fifth wave bottoming.
From a more standard pattern perspective, it actually looks more like a fourth wave rebound structure,
With another fifth wave decline to follow.
However, even if we are entering the fifth wave, we are already approaching the end of it.
So whether waiting for a rebound or considering bottom-fishing,
Buying in batches as the spot price declines in the later stages is a highly cost-effective operation.
As for whether the price is 50K or 30K, there is really no need to get too hung up on it.
From a structural deduction perspective,
I believe there is still a relatively high probability of a stage low occurring in the range of 56K–52K, which is worth paying attention to.
#BTC
Back in January this year, I mentioned that 75K is a critical level.
Only a truly effective drop below 75K constitutes a complete establishment of a downward trend (referring to the black neckline on the daily chart).
Breaking below that neckline is considered a confirmation of the end of the bull market in 2025.
From the current structure, there are two interpretations:
Either it is a fourth wave rebound,
Or it is a fifth wave bottoming.
From a more standard pattern perspective, it actually looks more like a fourth wave rebound structure,
With another fifth wave decline to follow.
However, even if we are entering the fifth wave, we are already approaching the end of it.
So whether waiting for a rebound or considering bottom-fishing,
Buying in batches as the spot price declines in the later stages is a highly cost-effective operation.
As for whether the price is 50K or 30K, there is really no need to get too hung up on it.
From a structural deduction perspective,
I believe there is still a relatively high probability of a stage low occurring in the range of 56K–52K, which is worth paying attention to.
#BTC
Yesterday a friend spoke a truth, surrounded by dead bulls
There are no dead bears
Resulting in being in a bull market without fear, and being in a bear market without knowledge
Should make more dead bear friends
Who among you is a dead bear
Let's be friends!
There are no dead bears
Resulting in being in a bull market without fear, and being in a bear market without knowledge
Should make more dead bear friends
Who among you is a dead bear
Let's be friends!
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