Today is Friday. Watching the big pancake fluctuate around the 70,000 mark over the past two days, many in the group have started shouting 'the bull is back.' However, this morning I carefully reviewed the underlying order flow data and the latest macro fundamentals, and I found that the current market may very well be in a carefully arranged trap for the bulls by big funds.

First, let's see if the 'water' in the big environment is enough. Yesterday, the latest statement from Old Powell basically extinguished the expectations for interest rate cuts this year, and in addition, the data from Wall Street's spot ETF for mid-March has begun to show obvious continued net outflows. The active funds are retreating; this is the underlying logic of big funds quietly distributing and retreating.

Returning to today's market structure, the daily line has effectively broken below the key trough of 75,000, and the long-term bullish trend has been disrupted. Recently, it pierced 76,000 only to be quickly smashed back down, which was a textbook-level false breakout that swept losses. Over the past two days, the market has retreated to around 68k-69k. We have indeed seen the main force's support from the footprint chart, but this is essentially not to lead everyone to create a new historical high, but to make a 'bear market rebound.'

Where is the endpoint of this rebound? Through the order flow and Fibonacci retracement calculations over the past few days, the real strong resistance and the endpoint of the bullish trap are very likely to fall within the range of 73,000 to 74,500. The main force is very likely to trigger the stop-loss orders of the short positions above that level, attracting retail investors to frantically chase high prices over the weekend or early next week, thereby constructing a macro lower high. Once the buying pressure above 73k shows signs of exhaustion, it is very likely that we will usher in a real main decline, targeting the liquidity low of 60,000 or even lower.

Therefore, today's operational logic is quite clear: in the short term, it is not a problem to long near 69k and take a bite of the rebound, but do not get too ambitious; the real wealth code is to patiently wait for the big showdown between bulls and bears in the 73k-74.5k range.

What do you think about this wave of rebound starting today? Is it the main force's good intention to 'pick people up' or is it to trap the last wave of chasing high near 73,000?

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