Cointelegraph

Key takeaways:

$105 WTI crude often triggers Bitcoin price corrections, with history showing a 14% to 27% sell-off within weeks.

The BTC to oil correlation remains uncertain as events like Mt. Gox and the Terra-Luna collapse likely deepened previous crypto bear markets.

Oil prices surged to $105 on Monday, reaching their highest level in nearly four years. Historically, this specific threshold has aligned with major Bitcoin (BTC) price corrections. However, since these occurrences only took place once in 2014 and twice in 2022, a more granular analysis is required to determine if current market fears are justified.

Are $105 oil prices a bearish signal for Bitcoin?

On June 12, 2014, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed above $105 after the Islamic State (ISIS) advanced into northern Iraq and captured Mosul and Tikrit.

Bitcoin/USD (blue, left) vs. WTI oil (red, right). Source: TradingView

While the price action in the first week was muted, Bitcoin faced a 21% correction in less than 10 weeks, falling to $468 from $600. It would take over two years for Bitcoin to reclaim the $600 level. The next instance would happen almost 8 years later. On March 1, 2022, WTI prices surged above $105 following the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war.

Bitcoin/USD (blue, left) vs. WTI oil (red, right). Source: TradingView

Bitcoin price faced a 14% correction within seven days, trading down to $38,100 from $44,370 on March 1, 2022. However, the losses were entirely reversed within less than a month, despite oil prices remaining above the $105 level. 

2022 Russian oil embargo's impact on Bitcoin price

The most recent instance of WTI oil prices surging above $105 occurred on May 4, 2022, after the European Commission formally proposed a phased-in embargo on all Russian oil imports.

Bitcoin/USD (blue, left) vs. WTI oil (red, right). Source: TradingView

Bitcoin prices faced a steep 27% crash over the next 7 days, and investors endured a much longer bear market as its price entered a 19-month bear market before finally reclaiming the $39,700 level. While oil prices remained below $100 for several years, they returned to triple digits this week.

US President Donald Trump said that his preference would be for the US to control the oil industry in Iran “indefinitely,” according to Yahoo Finance. While $105 oil is seen as a bearish sign for Bitcoin, three events in 12 years do not prove a correlation.

Other factors, like the Mt. Gox exchange liquidation in February 2014 and the Terra-Luna ecosystem collapse in May 2022, likely caused those prolonged bear markets. Thus, pinning a Bitcoin crash on an arbitrary oil price threshold seems far-fetched.

Two US Republican senators have introduced the “Mined in America Act” in an attempt to bring more Bitcoin mining manufacturing back to the US and codify US President Donald Trump’s executive order to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.

Introduced by US Senators Bill Cassidy and Cynthia Lummis on Monday, the new bill seeks to create a voluntary “Mined in America” certification for crypto mining facilities and mining pools. Certified facilities would be required to phase out mining equipment manufactured by companies tied to “foreign adversaries,” and support the domestic manufacturing of mining hardware. 

“Digital asset mining is a big part of our economy. We should be doing it here in America,” Cassidy said in a statement on Monday.

The US became the leading Bitcoin mining country by hashrate after China’s crackdown on Bitcoin mining in 2021. The US currently hosts about 38% of the Bitcoin network's hashrate, more than double that of second-place Russia.

Source: Bill Cassidyt

The bill also directs the National Institute of Standards and Technology and the Manufacturing Extension Partnership to help US manufacturers develop more secure and energy-efficient crypto mining equipment, and seeks to codify US President Donald Trump’s executive order to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. 

Related: Strategy pushes pause button on Bitcoin purchases, stock sales

Despite America’s dominance in Bitcoin mining hashrate, 97% of Bitcoin mining hardware is manufactured by two Chinese companies, Bitmain and MicroBT, said Dennis Porter, the CEO of Satoshi Action Fund and a supporter of the Mined in America Act.

“The Mined in America Act breaks that dependency by building a virtuous cycle of domestic manufacturing, certified mining operations, grid-strengthening energy infrastructure and a pipeline to the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve,” Porter said.

The US Bitcoin mining industry was impacted by a several-month-long incident starting in late 2024 when the US Customs and Border Protection paused shipments of thousands of Bitmain ASIC machines at US ports.

Bitcoin mining company Luxor Technology was among those impacted. In March 2025, the firm’s chief operating officer, Ethan Vera, told Cointelegraph that the miners had been seized because they were mistakenly believed to be illegally imported radio frequency devices.

Magazine: Bitcoin may face hard fork over any attempt to freeze Satoshi’s coins

Bitcoin (BTC) data flashed a rare bid-side imbalance when it traded below $65,000 on Sunday. The bid-ask ratio showed strong buying pressure across multiple depth levels, which may have confirmed a short-term bottom for BTC price. 

With more than $1.6 billion in short leveraged positions at risk of liquidation near $71,000, the setup centers on the possibility of a relief rally if BTC can hold above $66,700 on the daily chart. 

Bitcoin bid-ask imbalance meets market structure change

Data from Hyblock captured a sharp bid-side skew near $65,000 on Sunday. The imbalance ranked in the 99th percentile across the 1%, 2%, 5% and 10% orderbook depth, marking one of the strongest buying responses in recent weeks. 

The order book depth tracks total buy and sell orders within a percentage range around price, offering a clear view of near-term liquidity pressure.

Bitcoin order-book depth bid-ask ratio. Source: Hyblock Capital

At that level, the bids outweighed asks across key zones, showing strong demand absorption. Bitcoin rebounded toward the $67,000–$68,000 range within hours, aligning with past cases where selling pressure faded quickly after similar extremes. 

This indicates localized exhaustion in downside momentum, supported by the buyers stepping in at clustered liquidity zones.

BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

On the technical side, a four-hour bullish break of structure adds confirmation to the trend shift. However, it is important to hold above $66,700 into the daily close on Monday to keep the setup intact.

The cumulative short liquidation leverage stacked near $71,000, estimated above $1.6 billion, outlines a visible upside target during the possible relief move.

Bitcoin exchange liquidation map. Source: CoinGlass

Related: Bitcoin accumulation addresses absorb 67K BTC as miner-led selling falls: Data

April pivot trend meets Monday bearish pattern

A bullish positioning into April 1 adds a time-based variable. Crypto trader LP shows the first date of the month acting as a local low in 67% of observed cases over the past nine months.

The price direction into the pivot plays a role, with the downside approaches increasing the likelihood of a bottom formation, which is synonymous with the current setup. 

Bitcoin pivot trend analysis by LP. Source: X

At the same time, the recurring weekly behavior introduces a bit of resistance. Crypto analyst KillaXBT highlighted that roughly 90% of trading on Mondays printed early highs that were followed by selling pressure. Historical tracking showed 20 out of 24 Mondays delivered at least 3% downside moves over the past six months.

Monday high trend analysis by Killa. Source: X

These signals bring focus to the early-week price moves. Currently, Bitcoin is trading between a favorable April 1 setup and a common Monday weakness pattern, with $71,000 as the closest major liquidity level.

Related: Bitcoin analysis says $65K 'entry zone' with oil back above $100

It could be more than a year before Bitcoin regains its all-time high of $126,100, recorded in October last year, according to veteran trader Peter Brandt.

“I do not see a new price high in 2026,” Brandt told Cointelegraph. “Not until maybe the second quarter of 2027,” he said, though he also acknowledged that “this is all guesswork.”

Pundits on the crypto prediction platform Polymarket are similarly pessimistic, giving just a 15% chance that Bitcoin will reclaim $120,000 in 2026.

Prediction market on “What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?” Source: Polymarket

Analysts have been divided over how Bitcoin will perform in 2026. The four-year cycle theory suggests that Bitcoin is due for a weaker year, though some argue that rising institutional demand has broken the pattern, meaning Bitcoin could see an up year. 

Brandt said his Bitcoin thesis hasn’t changed

However, Bitcoin is trading at $66,329 at the time of publication, down 3.46% over the past seven days, according to CoinMarketCap. It is down about 47% from the $126,100 all-time high.

Bitcoin reached a yearly low of $60,000 on Feb. 6, but Brandt said that may not be the lowest level for 2026, forecasting that Bitcoin could retest or even move “slightly lower” than the price level in September or October this year. 

“That would then be the bear cycle low, and a new bull cycle would begin,” Brandt said.

Despite a cautious outlook for the year, Brandt said his broader thesis on Bitcoin hasn’t changed. “The BTC story is a store of wealth. Whether the utility gets built on top of BTC could impact price,” he said, adding that he is neutral or bearish on all other cryptocurrencies. 

Bitcoin analyst Willy Woo said in an X post on March 17 that, from a liquidity perspective, Bitcoin is about one-third of the way “through the bear market.”

Source: Willy Woo

Anthony Scaramucci, managing partner of the SkyBridge investment firm also said last week that Bitcoin is in the bear portion of the four-year market cycle.

“We're in a four-year cycle, and there were some traditional whales, some OG's, that believe in the four-year cycle, and guess what happens in life when you believe in something? You create a self-fulfilling prophecy.”

It comes as spot Bitcoin ETFs ended a four-week inflow streak, posting $296.18 million in net outflows for the week ending Friday.

Meanwhile, sentiment indicators signal that investors are cautious about the crypto market amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which measures overall crypto market sentiment, has been hovering in “extreme fear” since March 20, posting a score of 8 on Monday.

Not everyone is bearish on the year ahead. 

In January, Fundstrat head of research Tom Lee said he still expects Bitcoin to set a new all-time high this year after warning investors to brace for a “painful decline” across the crypto and stock markets.

Magazine: Nobody knows if quantum secure cryptography will even work

Everything that happened in crypto news in Asia over the past seven days: Asia Express.

In this edition:

Ripple joins Singapores BLOOM sandbox

Bhutan trims Bitcoin holdings even further

Japan jumps on the KuCoin dogpile

Startale completes $63 million Series A with SBI backing

ONUS fraud probe in Vietnam

Fenbushis Bo Shen launches recovery bounty after 2022 hack

CoinDCX founders cleared of fraud allegations

South Korea gives Upbit a wrist slap over misleading discount ads

UK sanctions Xinbi marketplace

Ripple joins Singapores BLOOM sandbox

Ripple has joined Singapores BLOOM sandbox with Unloq to trial cross-border trade finance using XRP Ledger and its RLUSD stablecoin.

The setup ties contracts, settlement conditions and financing into one system, with payments executed automatically once agreed terms are met.

The pilot will rely on RLUSD and tokenized bank liabilities to handle transactions while aiming to improve transparency around settlement risk.

BLOOM (borderless, liquid, open, online and multi-currency) is a Singapore initiative to expand how financial institutions settle transactions using tokenized bank liabilities and regulated stablecoins.

Bhutan trims Bitcoin holdings even further

Bhutan has moved another 519 Bitcoin worth about $37 million from a state-linked wallet, continuing a series of March transfers.

Blockchain data shows the funds were sent to two wallets, with one tied to trading firm QCP Capital, according to Onchain Lens.

Bhutans Bitcoin fell from over 10,000 BTC to around 6,400 BTC in early October. (Arkham)

The latest transaction follows earlier outflows this month, adding to a steady drawdown in the countrys holdings since late 2024.

Bhutans wallet now holds around 4,453 BTC, down sharply from more than 13,000 BTC at its peak.

Japan jumps on the KuCoin dogpile

Japans Financial Services Agency on Thursday issued warning notices to KuCoin and three other platforms for soliciting OTC derivatives trades online without proper registration.

KuCoin is not currently registered with the Financial Services Agency of Japan and does not operate a licensed entity in Japan, a spokesperson for the exchange told Cointelegraph. We respect Japans regulatory framework and will continue to assess and refine relevant arrangements in accordance with applicable laws and regulations, while maintaining constructive communication with relevant parties where appropriate.

The spokesperson added that the notice does not affect its global operations and that it will continue engaging with regulators while reviewing its compliance setup.

Read also

Features ZK-proofs are bringing smart contracts to Bitcoin BitcoinOS and Starknet

Features Blockchain detectives: Mt. Gox collapse saw birth of Chainalysis

Earlier in March, Dubai regulators said KuCoin is not authorized to serve local residents. The exchange holds an EU license through Austria, but regulators there barred it from onboarding new customers over breaches related to money laundering prevention, while Thailand temporarily suspended its operations after its capital fell below required levels.

Startale completes $63 million Series A with SBI backing

Startale announced the start of its hiring campaign to put its fresh funds to use. (Startale)

Startale Group has secured a $50 million investment from SBI to complete its $63 million Series A, backing its push into tokenized securities and stablecoins in Japan.

The funding will be used to scale its Strium blockchain, expand its yen and dollar stablecoins and develop a consumer-facing onchain app.

The round follows a $13 million first close earlier this year and builds on ongoing collaborations between Startale and SBI.

The companies are working together on tokenized equities, settlement infrastructure and regulated stablecoin projects targeting Japans financial market.

ONUS fraud probe in Vietnam

Vietnamese police have detained several suspects tied to the ONUS crypto project over fraud allegations.

The group allegedly created and controlled tokens like VNDC, ONUS and HNG, using coordinated price movements and misleading campaigns to attract investors and misappropriate funds, said the Ministry of Public Security.

Authorities alleged that the group raised billions of dollars. CoinMarketCap puts ONUS tokens market capitalization at around $29 million, down from its peak of $260 million.

ONUS token data on CoinMarketCap is self-reported and not independently verified by the data aggregator. (CoinMarketCap)

Fenbushis Bo Shen launches recovery bounty after 2022 hack

Fenbushi Capital co-founder Bo Shen has offered a bounty of up to 20% to recover roughly $42 million stolen from his personal wallet in 2022.

Onchain investigators have already helped freeze about $1.2 million, as efforts continue to trace the funds across exchanges.

Chances of recovering stolen cryptocurrencies remain low despite advances in security tools. (Bo Shen)

The breach was linked to a compromised seed phrase, with assets including USDC, Ether, USDT and Bitcoin moved through services like ChangeNow and SideShift.

Shen first disclosed the loss in November 2022. He said the stolen funds did not affect Fenbushi and its related entities.

CoinDCX founders cleared of fraud allegations

CoinDCX CEO claims victims were tricked by a fake website and impersonators. (Sumit Gupta)

An Indian court granted bail to CoinDCX co-founders Sumit Gupta and Niraj Khandelwal, finding no case against them based on the available evidence.

Gupta and Khandelwal were taken into police custody on March 21 over an alleged fraud case. However, the judge said the scheme was carried out by another individual impersonating the exchange.

Investigators did not oppose their release and said the founders were not present at the location where the incident occurred.

South Korea gives Upbit a wrist slap over misleading discount ads

South Koreas antitrust regulator has ordered Upbit operator Dunamu to correct misleading advertising over trading fee discounts.

Authorities said the exchange promoted a reduced fee from 0.139% to 0.05%, even though the higher rate had never been applied.

The regulator found the claims could mislead users and distort competition by presenting inaccurate pricing information.

Dunamu was issued a corrective order without fines.

Read also

Features ZK-proofs are bringing smart contracts to Bitcoin BitcoinOS and Starknet

Features Blockchain detectives: Mt. Gox collapse saw birth of Chainalysis

UK sanctions Xinbi marketplace

The UK on Thursday announced sanctions against Xinbi, a Chinese-language crypto marketplace accused of enabling large-scale fraud, aiming to cut it off from crypto access.

Officials said the platform provides tools and services used by scam networks across Southeast Asia and plays a central role in their operations.

Xinbi has handled tens of billions in crypto flows, including about $17.9 billion in onchain volume since 2025, according to TRM Labs, though the figure includes internal transfers and not all funds are confirmed illicit.

Vendors from illicit Telegram marketplace Huione Guarantee moved to Xinbi. (TRM)

The measures freeze any UK-linked assets and ban businesses and individuals from engaging with the platform or supporting its activities.

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Key points:

Bitcoin’s recovery is expected to face selling near $69,000, but if the bulls prevail, a rally to $74,508 is possible.

Most major altcoins remain below their resistance levels, indicating that the bears continue to exert pressure.

Bitcoin (BTC) rose above $68,000, but the bulls are struggling to sustain the higher levels. Sellers are expected to exert pressure to achieve a negative monthly close in March. That will result in six consecutive months of losses for the first time since the 2018 bear market. 

Analysts remain increasingly bearish on BTC’s prospects in the short term. Analyst Willy Woo said in a post on X that BTC may bottom between $46,000 and $54,000 according to various on-chain models.

Crypto market data daily view. Source: TradingView

The deeper the fall from the all-time high, the longer it is likely for BTC to take to record a new all-time high. According to an Ecoinometrics’ model, if BTC holds the $60,000 low, a full recovery is expected to happen in roughly 300 days from the October 2025 peak of $126,000. About 175 days have passed since BTC’s all-time high, leaving around 125 days for the full recovery to happen. If BTC falls to the $40,000 to $45,000 range, the recovery may stretch further into Q2 2027, as every 10% drawdown adds 80 days to the recovery duration. 

Will buyers be able overcome the resistance levels in BTC and the major altcoins? Let’s analyze the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out. 

S&P 500 Index price prediction

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) turned down from the 20-day exponential moving average (6,620) on Wednesday, indicating that bears remain in command.

SPX daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Sellers will attempt to sink the price to the 6,147 level, which is likely to attract solid buying by the bulls. A bounce off the 6,147 level may face selling at the 20-day EMA. If the price turns down sharply from the 20-day EMA, the bears will again attempt to sink the index below the 6,147 level. If they succeed, the next stop may be the 5,943 level.

On the other hand, a break and close above the 20-day EMA suggests that the bears are losing their grip. The index may then rally to the 50-day simple moving average (6,803).

US Dollar Index price prediction

The US Dollar Index (DXY) bounced off the 20-day EMA (99.40) on Wednesday, signaling a positive sentiment.

DXY daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Buyers will attempt to strengthen their position by maintaining the price above the 100.54 overhead resistance. If they manage to do that, the index may start a new up move to the 102 level and later to the 103.54 level.

Time is running out for the bears. They will have to defend the 100.54 level and swiftly pull the price below the 20-day EMA to weaken the bullish momentum. The price may then slump to the 50-day SMA (98.25).

Bitcoin price prediction

BTC closed below the support line of the ascending triangle pattern on Sunday, but the bears could not sustain the lower levels.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The bulls have pushed the BTC price back above the support line and are attempting to pierce the moving averages. If they succeed, it suggests that the break below the support line may have been a bear trap. The BTC/USDT pair may rally to the $74,508 to $76,000 resistance zone.

To retain the advantage, sellers will have to successfully defend the moving averages and swiftly pull the price below the $65,000 level. That clears the path for a drop to the $62,500 to $60,000 support zone.

Ether price prediction

Ether (ETH) closed below the 50-day SMA ($2,040) on Friday, but the bears could not sink the price below the $1,916 support.

ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The bulls are attempting to push the ETH price above the moving averages and get back into the game. If they can pull it off, the possibility of a rally to $2,400 increases. Sellers will attempt to halt the up move at $2,400, but if the buyers bulldoze their way through, the next stop may be $2,600.

This positive view will be negated in the near term if the ETH/USDT pair turns down and breaks below the $1,916 level. That opens the doors for a drop to the $1,750 support.

BNB price prediction

BNB (BNB) has been trading below the moving averages, but the bears could not pull the price to the $570 support.

BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The bulls are attempting to start a recovery, which is expected to face resistance at the moving averages. If the BNB price turns down from the moving averages, the risk of a drop to $570 increases.

Contrarily, a close above the moving averages suggests that the BNB/USDT pair may remain inside the $570 to $687 range for some more time. Buyers will be back in the driver’s seat on a close above the $687 resistance.

XRP price prediction

XRP (XRP) remains below the moving averages, indicating that the bears continue to exert pressure.

XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The gradually downsloping moving averages and the RSI in the negative territory indicate that the bears have the upper hand. Buyers will attempt to defend the $1.27 level, but if the support cracks, the XRP/USDT pair may descend to $1.11.

Contrary to this assumption, if the XRP price turns up sharply and breaks above the moving averages, it suggests that selling dries up at lower levels. The pair may then march toward the $1.61 level.

Solana price prediction

Solana (SOL) remains stuck inside the $76 to $95 range, indicating a balance between supply and demand.

SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The flattish moving averages and the RSI just below the midpoint do not give a clear edge either to the bulls or the bears. Buyers will have to shove the SOL price above the $95 resistance to start a rally to the $117 level.

On the contrary, a break and close below the $76 level tilts the advantage in favor of the bears. The SOL/USDT pair may then retest the Feb. 6 low of $67.

Dogecoin price prediction

Buyers have managed to maintain Dogecoin (DOGE) above the $0.09 support but are struggling to start a strong rebound.

DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

That suggests the bears are selling on every minor relief rally to the moving averages. If the DOGE price again turns down from the moving averages, it increases the risk of a break below the $0.09 support. The DOGE/USDT pair may then plunge to the $0.08 level.

Instead, if the price continues higher and breaks above the moving averages, it signals that the bulls remain buyers near the $0.09 level. The pair may then rally to $0.11 and subsequently to $0.12.

Cardano price prediction

Cardano (ADA) closed below the $0.25 support on Friday, indicating that the bears are in control.

ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Buyers are trying to push the ADA price back above the $0.25 level, but the bears have held their ground. That suggests the sellers are attempting to flip the $0.25 level into resistance. If they manage to do that, the ADA/USDT pair may plummet to the Feb. 6 low of $0.22.

The bulls will have to swiftly thrust the price above the moving averages to trap the aggressive bears. That may drive the pair to the downtrend line. Sellers are expected to vigorously defend the downtrend line, as a close above it signals a potential short-term trend change.

Hyperliquid price prediction

Buyers are attempting to sustain the Hyperliquid (HYPE) price above the 20-day EMA ($37.86), but the recovery lacks strength. 

HYPE/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

If the HYPE price dips below the 20-day EMA and the $36.77 level, it suggests that the bulls have given up. That may pull the HYPE/USDT pair to the 50-day SMA ($33.73), which is likely to act as strong support.

Alternatively, if the price turns up from the current level, it is expected to face resistance at $41.59 and then at $44. Buyers will have to scale the $44 level to signal the resumption of the up move toward $50.

The National Football League (NFL) has reportedly sent letters to Kalshi, Polymarket and other prediction market platforms in an effort to block the companies from offering trades on football events that can be easily manipulated or determined in advance. 

According to a Monday ESPN report, the letters to the prediction market companies said that the NFL objected to certain types of event contracts offered on the platforms, including those that could be easily manipulated by a single person — including an announcer’s words, player signings, coach firings and bets related to injuries on the field. League executive vice president Jeff Miller reportedly said the letter followed talks with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). 

“When a league raises manipulation concerns about a contract proposed to be listed on a prediction market, the agency considers the league’s concerns and may prohibit the contract from being listed,” said CFTC Chair Michael Selig in a Monday interview with ESPN posted to X, adding:

"[T]he leagues are very well positioned to make those calls and so we are going to afford a lot of deference to the leagues on these types of issues."

Source: CFTC Chair Michael Selig

Under Selig, the CFTC has moved toward claiming “exclusive jurisdiction” over prediction markets even as many US state gaming authorities continue to file lawsuits against platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. Earlier this month, Major League Baseball (MLB) signed a memorandum of understanding with the US regulator in response to requests for “integrity protections.”

Cointelegraph reached out to Kalshi and Polymarket for comment on the NFL letters but did not receive an immediate response.

US lawmakers mull legislation to fight insider trading on prediction markets

The NFL’s letter comes as lawmakers in the US Congress introduced bills in response to “highly unusual bets” bets on prediction markets platforms, signaling insider information about the country’s attacks on Iran. Another proposed bill would ban a US president and lawmakers from making wagers on the platforms.

Magazine: Are DeFi devs liable for the illegal activity of others on their platforms?

Key takeaways:

A Hyperliquid whale’s $53 million Bitcoin short and its bets against silver suggest a cautious outlook for global markets.

Traders remain on edge as the US and Israel-Iran war and upcoming US jobs data drive risk-averse behavior this week.

Bitcoin (BTC) price recovered from Sunday’s $65,000 low but failed to hold ground above $67,000 on Monday, tracking the modest intraday losses seen in the S&P 500 Index. Despite initial decoupling signs favoring Bitcoin, a whale recently opened a massive $53 million BTC short position on Hyperliquid.

With a liquidation price set at $80,630, the size of the bearish bet has traders questioning the logic behind the positioning.

Hyperliquid whale 0x007d76c0ba…443d967a0 position. Source: CoinGlass

The Hyperliquid whale, identified by the address 0x007d76c0ba…443d967a0, initiated the leveraged short on Sunday and has since doubled down despite Bitcoin’s price volatility. CoinGlass data shows the same entity is playing a broader macroeconomic hand, holding a $7 million leveraged long on Brent oil, a $10 million short on silver, and a $21 million short across various altcoins, including Ether (ETH).

Bitcoin price pinned due to war and stalled regulation

The US and Israel-Iran war has dominated the narrative for the past month, as the region is crucial for global energy and logistics. Brent crude oil prices hit $107 per barrel on Monday, up 48% from late February. Since nearly half of silver demand is industrial, a broader economic hit from the war would likely hurt its price, explaining the whale's bearish stance on the metal.

S&P 500 futures (left) vs. Bitcoin/USD (right). Source: TradingView

Traders dumped risk assets on Friday, fearing a potential US military invasion of Iran over the weekend. Markets remain on edge following posts from US President Donald Trump, who claimed “great progress” on a deal while simultaneously threatening to blow up Iran’s energy infrastructure.

Beyond the war in the Middle East, cryptocurrency investors worry that regulatory pressure could kill institutional investors’ appetite. Pierre Rochard, CEO of The Bitcoin Bond Company, warned that agencies lack a clear framework on how Bitcoin-related activities should be regulated. A March 19 proposal from financial regulators offered zero clarity on Bitcoin or digital assets, leaving the industry in a legal gray zone.

US Representatives released a draft bill on Thursday titled the “Digital Asset PARITY Act,” which seeks to overhaul the Internal Revenue Code to clarify how digital assets are taxed. However, Conner Brown, managing director at the Bitcoin Policy Institute, noted that the proposal fails to include reporting and tax exemptions for small Bitcoin transactions. Additionally, the draft reportedly offers no fixes for the tax treatment of Bitcoin mining.

Strategy (MSTR US) corporate Bitcoin acquisitions. Source: Strategy

Another potential driver for short-term bearishness is the perceived absence of Bitcoin buys from Strategy (MSTR US) after 13 consecutive weeks of activity. This speculation appears thin, however, as the company recently unveiled massive capital-raising programs totaling $44.1 billion to fund future Bitcoin purchases, including its Stretch (STRC US) perpetual yield stock.

US nonfarm payrolls monthly change. Source: AdvisorPerspectives

Bitcoin investors are also closely monitoring US labor data this week. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) is due Tuesday, followed by the ADP private payrolls report on Wednesday. While Friday is a US national holiday, the March jobs report is still expected to drop. Traders will likely lean into risk-averse positioning ahead of the three-day market closure.

Ultimately, Bitcoin’s fate will depend on institutional risk appetite. Gold’s weakness since its $5,600 all-time high on Jan. 28 could catalyze a broader shift in capital. While the Hyperliquid whale’s short position makes sense for a quick play, its success largely hinges on the next turn in the US and Israel-Iran war.

Square, the payments platform of Block, has begun rolling out Bitcoin payments at its point-of-sale terminals for eligible US sellers, with the automatic feature going live today as part of a phased rollout over the coming month.

The announcement was shared Monday in a post on X by Miles Suter, Bitcoin product lead at Block, and reposted by CEO and longtime Bitcoiner Jack Dorsey.

Suter said the feature is designed to make it easier for “millions of businesses” to accept Bitcoin, adding that eligible US sellers will have payments automatically enabled and will receive US dollars by default when customers pay in Bitcoin (BTC). Merchants will also have the option to automatically “stack” Bitcoin from daily sales.

He described the move as a step toward using “Bitcoin as everyday money.” Bitcoin payment acceptance is expected to be available to all Square merchants by Nov. 10.

Source: Miles Suter

In a separate post, Square said transactions will convert instantly to cash at checkout, require no additional setup, and offer near-instant settlement. The company added that merchants do not need to hold Bitcoin and that the feature will carry zero processing fees through 2026.

According to Square’s website, the feature is currently available to US sellers that meet verification requirements, excluding businesses based in New York.

The rollout, which could lower barriers to Bitcoin payments by removing volatility and custody risk for millions of merchants, was first outlined by Block in May.

According to BitcoinTreasuries.net data, Block ranks as the 14th-largest publicly traded holder of Bitcoin, with 8,883 BTC on its balance sheet at an average cost of $32,939 per coin.

Source: BitcoinTreasuries.NET

Bitcoin-backed lending grows across crypto and traditional finance

Beyond payments and its role as a store of value, Bitcoin is increasingly being used in lending and broader financial infrastructure.

In January, Nexo launched a zero-interest lending product allowing Bitcoin and Ether (ETH) holders to borrow against their assets through fixed-term loans with predefined repayment conditions.

The offering builds on a structured model previously limited to its private and OTC channels, which facilitated more than $140 million in borrowing in 2025, according to the company.

The same month, Coinbase reintroduced Bitcoin-backed loans in the United States, enabling users to borrow up to $100,000 in USDC against BTC held on the platform, and in February, Kraken followed with fixed-rate crypto loans for Pro users, offering borrowing against digital assets at rates of 10%–25% APR for terms of up to two years.

Traditional finance is also beginning to incorporate Bitcoin and crypto-backed credit. US mortgage lender Rate recently launched a program allowing borrowers to use verified cryptocurrency holdings to meet mortgage underwriting requirements without liquidating their assets.

Last week, Coinbase and Better Home & Finance introduced a structure that lets borrowers pledge crypto as collateral for loans used to fund down payments on Fannie Mae–compliant mortgages.

Magazine: Nobody knows if quantum secure cryptography will even work

Mitsubishi Corporation plans to use a blockchain-based payment system developed by JPMorgan Chase to move funds across its global operations, signaling continued adoption of blockchain infrastructure within traditional finance.

The system is part of JPMorgan’s blockchain network, known as Kinexys, which enables near-instant fund transfers, reduces reliance on traditional banking and operates around the clock, according to a report by Nikkei.

JPMorgan is seeking to scale the platform to $10 billion in daily transactions from the current average of $7 billion. Kinexys has processed more than $3 trillion in cumulative volume since launching in 2020, highlighting growing institutional demand for blockchain-based settlement systems. 

The adoption is notable given Mitsubishi’s scale as one of Japan’s largest trading and industrial companies, with extensive global operations spanning energy, manufacturing and logistics. Last year, the company produced more than 883,000 vehicles.

Kinexys has also attracted other major clients, including Qatar National Bank (QNB) Group, one of the region’s largest lenders, which announced in September that it would use the platform to process corporate payments. At the time, QNB executive Kamel Moris said Kinexys can “guarantee payments as fast as two minutes.”

Kinexys expands focus to tokenization

Despite CEO Jamie Dimon’s long-standing skepticism toward cryptocurrencies, JPMorgan has steadily expanded its blockchain infrastructure — a push underscored by Mitsubishi’s adoption of its Kinexys network.

Kinexys itself extends beyond payments. JPMorgan is developing a tokenization platform, Kinexys Fund Flow, aimed at asset classes such as private credit and real estate, with rollout expected this year. 

Kinexys targets the $6 billion tokenized credit market. Source: RWA.xyz

The bank is not alone. BlackRock has launched tokenized funds, while Franklin Templeton operates a blockchain-based money market fund. Meanwhile, German industrial giant Siemens has issued digital bonds on blockchain rails, signaling growing institutional interest in tokenization.

Industry players are increasingly positioning for tokenization in the United States, as improving regulatory clarity and infrastructure development are reshaping market structure. As Cointelegraph recently reported, both Nasdaq and the New York Stock Exchange have moved to incorporate tokenization into alternative trading systems, signaling a shift toward blockchain-based settlement rails.

Seven months ahead of the November midterm elections, Chainlink Labs and Anchorage Digital announced that they were the founding contributors to a political action committee (PAC) “to support candidates working to advance digital asset and blockchain policy in the United States.”

In a Monday announcement, the two crypto companies said they were supporting the Blockchain Leadership Fund, a hybrid PAC that allows contributions directly to candidates as well as independent expenditures, such as media buys.

Source: Chainlink

Neither company publicly disclosed how much they may have contributed to the PAC, and Federal Election Commission (FEC) records showed no funding between the Blockchain Leadership Fund’s creation in September and Dec. 31 — though Anchorage, with a $4.2 billion valuation, said today it would be using “corporate resources.”

The formation of the PAC, in addition to the contributions from the crypto companies and participation of members from advocacy organization The Digital Chamber, comes about seven months before US voters will determine on Nov. 3 which political party will have majority control of the House of Representatives and Senate. Both chambers are necessary to pass laws related to crypto and blockchain in the country — including the payment stablecoin bill GENIUS Act, approved in July, and the CLARITY Act, under consideration in the Senate.

It was unclear based on FEC filings where the PAC’s attention would go in a US election year crucial for control of both chambers of Congress, and Cointelegraph received no immediate response to its requests for information. However, a Chainlink spokesperson said that any candidates willing to support the CLARITY Act, the crypto market structure bill moving through the Senate, deserve “sustained, organized support from the industry.”

“2026 will be pivotal for crypto regulation,” said Anchorage in its announcement. “The choices we make now will shape the industry, and American financial leadership, for decades. That outcome will be determined by who invests in the process and who shows up when it matters.”

Anchorage co-founder and CEO Nathan McCauley has reported meeting regularly with lawmakers to discuss the market structure bill, which continues to be stalled over concerns on stablecoin yield and other issues. The platform is just one of many crypto-tied companies that would likely benefit from the legislation being signed into law.

A 2024 redux for the 2026 midterm elections?

The last nationwide federal election in the United States in 2024 saw a reported 270 pro-crypto candidates winning seats in Congress and along with Donald Trump winning the presidency. Crypto-backed PACs, including the Ripple- and Coinbase-funded Fairshake and its related groups, spent hundreds of millions of dollars in races across the country to support candidates they considered “pro-crypto.”

With many US state primaries already completed in 2026, crypto-aligned PACs have signaled through spending they plan to continue the same strategy they employed in the 2024 elections. Fairshake said in January that the PAC had accumulated a war chest of more than $192 million for this year’s races.

Magazine: Morgan Stanley Bitcoin ETF undercuts BlackRock, SBF pardon unlikely: Hodler’s Digest, Mar. 22 – 28

Bitcoin (BTC) demand from long-term holders increased by 48.5% over the past seven days. This rise in accumulation coincided with a sharp decline in Bitcoin miners’ selling activity, as the Miners’ Position Index (MPI) dropped to levels last seen in 2024.

The development highlights a phase where long-term participants are steadily absorbing Bitcoin, while selling from the miners continues to decrease.

Bitcoin accumulators expand as miner outflows cool down

CryptoQuant data shows that the demand from accumulator addresses lifted holdings to roughly 205,000 BTC on March 30 from 138,000 BTC on March 23. The increase follows a drawdown from a March peak near 210,000 BTC, marking a renewed phase of demand from long-term participants.

Bitcoin demand from accumulator addresses. Source: CryptoQuant

The BTC accumulation increased during the recent price decline, indicating an active absorption of available supply.

At the same time, Bitcoin miners' behavior has shifted. Crypto analyst Nino highlighted that the Miners’ Position Index (MPI) 30-day moving average has dropped to -1.042, a level last seen in 2024 lows. 

Bitcoin miner position index. Source: CryptoQuant

MPI measures the ratio of total miner outflow to its one-year average. Lower values imply reduced selling relative to historical norms. This indicates fewer coins are entering circulation from miners, easing immediate sell-side pressure.

The rising accumulator balances and lower miner selling reduce the amount of Bitcoin entering the market. This points to a phase where long-term holders are buying while miners are selling less. 

Related: Bitcoin hashrate falls after Iran conflict, HOOD down 16%: Month in charts

BTC exchange flows signal fading demand

The short-term positioning on exchanges exhibits a different pattern. Binance’s seven-day net taker flow slipped to negative $1.2 billion on Monday, aligning with the recent downside pressure. Earlier in March, the same metric recorded a positive $3.28 billion flow on March 15. The reversal highlights an increase in aggressive sell pressure across derivatives markets.

Bitcoin seven-day net taker flow on Binance. Source: CryptoQuant

The sentiment data reinforces this shift. The Bitcoin Unified Sentiment Index sits below the -50 threshold at -62.9%, compared with a near-neutral reading of -2.42 on March 15. The index combines derivatives positioning, volatility and volume signals to gauge directional bias. A reading below zero points to sustained sell-side dominance over recent sessions.

Even with the selling pressure visible on exchanges, the sentiment index moving back toward neutral territory marks a change from earlier extremes. Fear has eased while conviction on both sides stays limited, leaving the activity closely tied to liquidity flows around the current range between $75,000 and $60,000. 

Bitcoin Unified Sentiment Index. Source: CryptoQuant

Related: Six straight months of losses? Five things to know in Bitcoin this week

In this Cointelegraph interview, Ran Neuner, a longtime voice in the crypto space, openly questions Bitcoin’s core narrative— as he admits he struggles to answer one simple question: why should people buy it?

“I don’t know how to answer that question. That’s the problem.”

Once pitched as peer-to-peer money and later reframed as digital gold, Bitcoin’s identity has become harder to define in practice, he argues, especially after failing to move in tandem with traditional store-of-value assets like gold in the last cycle.

“And so the biggest crisis that I have at the moment,” he said, “is justifying to myself what Bitcoin is and where Bitcoin derives its value from.”

That fundamental uncertainty feeds into a much broader conversation about where the crypto market is heading in 2026.

Rather than offering bold price predictions, Neuner pushes back against the idea entirely. He said investors should stop trying to guess market direction and instead focus on building data-driven theses while protecting themselves from downside risk.

From there, the discussion expands into macro territory.

The Iran war, oil prices, and inflation are actively shaping market behavior. Neuner sees capital flows, not headlines, as the only reliable signal in an increasingly distorted information environment.

At the same time, he outlines a radically different future, one where AI agents transact autonomously, potentially creating a new digital economy driven by crypto infrastructure.

Watch the full conversation on our YouTube channel — and don’t forget to subscribe.

Strategy, the largest public Bitcoin (BTC) treasury company, reported no additional purchases of the cryptocurrency last week as many entities are pivoting into alternative methods for revenue.

In a Monday filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Michael Saylor-led Strategy reported that it did not purchase any Bitcoin between March 23 and March 29, nor did the company sell any shares. Strategy reported holding 762,099 BTC as of Sunday, worth more than $51 billion at the time of publication.

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Typically, Strategy funds its BTC purchases through the sale of its common stock. However, the company reported it “did not sell any shares under its at-the-market offering program and did not purchase any Bitcoin.”

The share price of its MSTR Class A stock on the Nasdaq has slid more than 60% in the last six months, reaching $126.78 apiece at the time of publication.

According to Strategy’s reported purchase history, Monday would mark the first time that the company did not report a weekly BTC buy since December 2025.

Although Executive Chairman Michael Saylor did not publicly announce any reason for the move, some companies have been pivoting from mining or acquiring more of the cryptocurrency amid increasing difficulty and falling prices — the price of BTC has declined by more than 18% in the last 12 months, reaching $67,197 at the time of publication.

Saylor’s weekly posts on the X social media platform have become closely watched as his company has added additional BTC holdings.

As mining companies pivot to AI/HPC, crypto ties remain

Crypto miner MARA Holdings, in another example of a company moving away from its Bitcoin accumulation strategy, sold 15,133 BTC for about $1.1 billion in March. The company reported in an SEC filing that the proceeds of the sale would be used to reduce its convertible debt.

Canaan, in contrast, reported increasing its supply of BTC and Ether (ETH) and continued expansion of its mining operations in Texas. The company reported holding 1,793 BTC and 3,952 ETH as of March 10.

Magazine: Nobody knows if quantum secure cryptography will even work

Global payments infrastructure provider Nium has launched a platform that allows businesses to issue stablecoin-funded cards through Visa and Mastercard, in the latest development enabling digital dollar balances to be spent at merchants using existing card networks.

Nium said the system converts stablecoin balances into fiat at the point of sale and handles settlement, compliance and card network integration through a single integration.

The tech company said it expects to be able to shorten the time required to launch stablecoin card programs from months to days by consolidating conversion, settlement and compliance into a single integration layer.

Consultancy Bain & Company said recently that “Stablecoins are having a headline moment as US legislators turn their attention to clarifying the rules of the game.”

The proposed CLARITY Act is stuck in Congress as the crypto industry and the nation’s banks battle over stablecoin rewards.

At the time of writing, the stablecoin market capitalization exceeds $315 billion, according to DefiLlama data, with Tether’s USDT (USDT) accounting for about $184 billion, or around 58% of the market.

Stablecoin market cap. Source: DefiLlama

Stablecoin payments expand across networks and platforms

US legislation notwithstanding, activity around stablecoin payments is expanding across card networks, fintechs and technology platforms.

In October, Visa said it would expand its stablecoin support to four tokens across four blockchains, allowing conversion into more than 25 fiat currencies. It already supports stablecoins including Circle’s USDC and Euro Coin, as well as PayPal USD and Global Dollar, across networks such as Ethereum, Solana, Avalanche and Stellar.

Earlier this month, Mastercard agreed to acquire stablecoin infrastructure company BVNK in a deal valued at up to $1.8 billion, including contingent payments, to connect fiat payment rails with onchain transactions.

Beyond the card networks, PayPal, which launched its PYUSD (PYUSD) stablecoin in August 2023, recently introduced PYUSDx, a platform that allows developers to issue dollar-pegged tokens backed by PYUSD for use in transactions within applications and digital ecosystems.

Magazine: Nobody knows if quantum secure cryptography will even work

Digital asset infrastructure provider BitGo has expanded support for Canton Coin, adding trading and settlement services to its existing custody offering, in a move that aligns with a wider industry push to develop trading and settlement rails for tokenized financial assets.

In a Monday announcement, BitGo said it has become one of the first US-based regulated providers to offer custody, over-the-counter (OTC) trading and settlement for Canton Coin within a single platform, although similar bundled services have begun emerging across the digital asset sector.

BitGo initially began supporting the asset in October through custody services, allowing institutions to hold Canton Coin with a qualified custodian. 

The latest update enables clients to trade Canton Coin electronically or via BitGo’s OTC desk, mirroring how traditional assets are executed in institutional markets. It also introduces settlement through the network’s infrastructure, allowing counterparties to complete transactions onchain.

BitGo said the expansion is part of its broader push to support tokenized finance, an area gaining traction among banks and financial institutions exploring blockchain-based settlement and asset issuance, with parallel efforts underway at firms such as Fireblocks and JPMorgan, which have also been developing tokenized settlement and payment systems.

Canton Coin has grown since late 2025, with its market capitalization reaching nearly $6 billion, according to CoinMarketCap data. The increase comes amid broader interest in tokenization and permissioned blockchain networks designed for regulated use cases.

Canton Coin’s market cap has more than doubled since December. Source: CoinMarketCap

Canton Coin is the utility token of the Canton Network, a layer-1 blockchain developed by Digital Asset. The network is designed for institutional adoption, with privacy and compliance features.

Institutional participation grows amid regulatory developments

The move comes amid growing institutional participation in the digital asset market, supported by major industry developments and a gradually evolving regulatory framework.

In a 70-page report released in December, Coinbase said institutional adoption was approaching an inflection point despite ongoing market volatility. 

The crypto exchange pointed to evolving US legislation, including the GENIUS Act on stablecoins and potential progress on a broader crypto market structure bill, as factors that could accelerate institutional involvement.

Institutional adoption mirrors broader trends in US policy developments. Source: Coinbase Institutional

A separate report published in January by Binance Research similarly found that institutional capital is playing an increasingly prominent role in digital asset markets, with activity shifting away from retail-driven trading.

XRP (XRP) price has been sealed in an eight-month downtrend, with the momentum indicators and the XRP/BTC ratio at levels that previously marked cycle bottoms.

Key takeaways:

XRP price trades at $1.35 on Monday as multiple indicators hint at a cycle bottom.

XRP price must hold $1.27-$1.30 to avoid a deeper drop over the coming weeks.

XRP’s RSI, MACD print classic reversal signal

Data from TradingView reveals that XRP’s weekly relative strength index (RSI) reached an oversold level of 29 on March 2, signaling fading bearish momentum.

Similarly, the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator has dropped to its lowest level ever and is about to produce a bullish cross.

Note that previous bullish crosses, particularly aligning with an oversold RSI, have marked macro bottoms for XRP/USD.

This ultimately led to 74%-230%% XRP price rallies, as seen in 2022 and mid-2024.

XRP/USD weekly chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The RSI has now recovered to 34 from 29 in early March. When combined with a buy signal on the MACD, the picture begins to resemble previous cycles.

“Weekly RSI on $XRP just hit one of its lowest levels in years,” analyst Arthur said in an X post on Sunday, adding: 

“The last time the weekly RSI reached these extremes, XRP was preparing for a strong accumulation phase. Is the weekly chart flashing a long-term bottom signal?”

This is the second time “we’ve been oversold in the RSI,” fellow analyst Cryptoinsightuk said in a recent YouTube video, adding:

“The first time was in July 2022, and it marked the exact bottom for XRP.”

Additionally, XRP is beginning to stabilize against Bitcoin (BTC) at the bottom of a long consolidation range and has printed a higher high on the daily chart, suggesting that “there is some life at the bottom of this range,” the analyst added.

The last time XRP bottomed against Bitcoin around this level was in June 2025. It marked the beginning of a 56% increase in the XRP/BTC ratio, accompanying a 92% XRP price rally to a multi-year high of $3.66.

XRP/BTC chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Technicals aside, Cointelegraph reported that whale accumulation and high outflows from exchanges reinforced the long-term bullish case for XRP.

XRP price must hold above $1.30 

Meanwhile, XRP/USD remains cautiously bullish as long as it holds the $1.27-$1.30 support zone. 

XRP is “sitting at a very sensitive level, this is where the market chooses direction,” analyst Egrag Crypto said in a recent X post, referring to the area around $1.30.

“If this zone holds, we grind higher. If it breaks, we likely revisit deeper support around $1.15.”

XRP/USD daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The importance of this support level is reinforced by cost basis distribution. The heatmap below shows that nearly 500 million XRP were acquired around this price.

XRP cost-basis distribution heatmap. Source: Glassnode

Below that, the next line of defence is the $1.15-$1.12 demand zone, where the 200-week simple moving average is. 

If XRP/USD drops below this level, it would be on a free-fall toward the measured target of the bear flag at $0.80, or 42% below the current price.

As Cointelegraph reported, holding $1.27-$1.30 would be a sign of strength among the bulls who must push the XRP/USD pair toward the $1.61 range high to regain control. 

Opinion by: Dzmitry Saksonau, CEO of JGGL.

The music industry recently closed one of its most consequential eras in decades. Warner Music settled its copyright lawsuit with Udio in November 2025 and signed a licensing deal for a new AI music platform.

Days later, Warner struck a similar agreement with Suno, the most popular AI music generator, with over 100 million users and a $2.45-billion valuation.

All three major labels now have licensing agreements with the AI platforms they sued just a year ago.

By Grammy Week 2026, the conversation had shifted. Recording Academy CEO Harvey Mason Jr. admitted that every producer he knows already uses AI in the studio and called AI policy “the toughest part of my job.”

He’s not the only one who shares that sentiment. Artists want to create with these tools, but they also don’t want their work strip mined without consent or compensation.

As AI becomes a default tool in studios, these deals expose cracks in attribution, ownership and compensation that licensing alone cannot fix. If music is entering an “open studio” era, the industry needs solutions built into the very foundation of creation.

Licensing deals don’t scale for what comes next

Licensing works when creation is centralized and outputs are clearly defined. A label signs a deal with a platform, the platform trains on approved catalogs, and artists opt in to have their voices and compositions used.

That model handles the present, but it does not handle the future.

AI-assisted music is fluid — remixes, iterations and collaborations happen constantly across tools, platforms and communities. A single track might pass through three AI models, two human producers and a remix chain before it reaches an audience.

The Suno-Warner deal already exposed one crack. After the agreement, Suno quietly revised its rights and ownership terms. Language that previously told subscribers “you own the songs” disappeared.

The updated policy now states that users are “generally not considered the owner” of their outputs, even with paid commercial licenses. Ownership, it turns out, is the part that licensing deals struggle to define.

The numbers make the scale problem obvious. Suno alone has 100 million users. You cannot negotiate bespoke agreements for every creative interaction in that ecosystem. The model breaks under its own weight.

The real conflict is about attribution

Too much of the AI-music debate focuses on humans versus machines when the real problem is something else entirely.

It’s not that AI will replace artists in any way. The problem is that nobody can reliably track who created what or who should get paid.

Lose track of who created what, and the money stops flowing to the right people. Once that happens, trust disappears, even if every tool is properly licensed.

We’ve seen a similar pattern play out when streaming became popular. Streaming gave people access to music, and that part was fine. The damage came from opaque value flows that left artists unable to track where their money went.

The same thing happened during the user-generated content fights of the 2010s. Whenever music becomes more accessible without a transparent money trail, creators get burned.

The NO FAKES Act, reintroduced to Congress in April 2025 with bipartisan support from legislators and backing from OpenAI, YouTube and all three major labels, tries to address part of this.

Recent: AI centralization, the future of the AI workforce and AI music agents

The bill would establish federal protections against unauthorized AI-generated replicas of a person’s voice or likeness. Legislation protects, however, after the damage is done. It doesn’t prevent the breakdown in the first place.

Without transparent systems baked into the creation process, openness will always feel like exploitation to the people who make the music.

Infrastructure can prevent disputes

Smart contracts can encode royalty splits into the song file itself. When a track sells or streams, payment executes automatically. A three-person band with a 40-30-30 split receives those percentages instantly. There is no label holding funds for 90 days. There are no quarterly statements. There can be no dispute over who owns what percentage. The transaction is recorded on a public ledger. Any collaborator can verify that their share of the royalties hit their wallet.

The bigger advantage is provenance. Blockchain allows creative works to carry their ownership record as they move across platforms. When a track passes through AI models, remix chains and distribution channels, that record travels with it.

The current system can’t do this. Metadata gets stripped, credits get lost, and payments arrive months late, if they arrive at all.

Done right, this infrastructure enables what licensing deals never will: a creative environment where artists remix, build on and share each other’s work without losing ownership along the way. Where fans have a real stake in the creative process and where AI tools improve what artists create.

The window to get this right is closing

AI-assisted creation has quietly become the default mode of music production, and the industry now faces a familiar choice. It can keep layering more rules onto outdated systems, or it can rebuild the foundation for how music is made and shared.

The Suno-Warner deal is a good starting point, but it’s not enough by itself.

AI is not the existential risk the industry keeps treating it as — the systems trying to contain it are. Licensing deals are a good start, but they were never designed to carry this much weight. The industry needs infrastructure that makes compensation as automatic and fluid as the creative process itself.

If music is truly entering an open-studio era, the industry must build systems that trust creators and make that trust enforceable by design.

Opinion by: Dzmitry Saksonau, CEO of JGGL.

Midas has raised a $50 million Series A round to build what it describes as an “instant liquidity layer” for tokenized assets, according to a company blog post on Monday. The round was led by RRE and Creandum, with participation from Framework Ventures, Franklin Templeton and Coinbase Ventures.

The German tokenization startup says the funding will be used to scale what it calls its Open Liquidity Architecture, anchored by a Midas Staked Liquidity (MSL) facility designed to enable instant, atomic redemptions for tokenized assets without settlement risk or reliance on external market makers.

The raise comes as crypto venture funding rebounds unevenly. Total crypto fundraising climbed nearly 50% year-on-year between March 2025 and March 2026, according to Messari data. The number of individual deals fell, yet venture capital concentrated larger checks into fewer projects.

Within that trend, infrastructure for tokenized Treasuries and other real-world asset (RWA) yields has emerged as a key theme, attracting over $2.5 billion in funding in 2025. But while issuance has grown, Midas says that tokenized assets still lack utility, arguing that many products can be minted but are hard to exit at scale.

Midas raises $50 million Series A. Source: Midas

Liquidity bottleneck in tokenized markets

Founded in 2024, Midas’s broader pitch is that liquidity, rather than issuance, remains the primary bottleneck for tokenized finance, and the company is betting that solving redemptions can accelerate the shift of capital markets onto blockchain infrastructure.

Research by the International Organization of Securities Commissions found that many RWA tokens still face low secondary market liquidity and fragmented trading across chains and venues, arguing that no single architecture is likely to resolve those structural frictions on its own.

Platforms such as Ondo Finance and Maple Finance are also targeting this space, offering tokenized Treasurys and credit products that cater to institutional investors and provide their own liquidity solutions.

Cointelegraph reached out to Midas for comment but had not received a response by publication.

Magazine: Bitcoin’s ‘biggest bull catalyst’ would be Saylor’s liquidation — Santiment founder

Bitcoin (BTC) cooled its modest rebound at Monday’s Wall Street open as oil stayed above $100 per barrel.

Key points:

Bitcoin preserves a rebound from its lowest levels of March so far.

Analysis describes “notable” BTC price strength versus other macro assets.

A trader sees accumulation opportunities throughout the lower end of the current trading range.

Analysis: Bitcoin preserving $65,000 “notable”

Data from TradingView showed 2% daily gains holding at the time of writing after a trip to new March lows of $65,000.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Iran tensions continued to fuel market volatility, with US President Donald Trump delivering fresh ultimatums over the Strait of Hormuz blockade while keeping details sparse.

In a post on Truth Social, Trump demanded that Hormuz be “immediately ‘Open for Business’” while threatening renewed attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure. 

Source: Truth Social

Iran in turn suggested that markets discount news delivered prior to the open as a “reverse indicator.”

“We are in the most unusual times in market history,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter responded in analysis on X.

S&P 500 futures 30-minute chart. Source: The Kobeissi Letter/X

Oil preserved the $100 mark into Monday, while US stocks struggled to make gains as the week began.

CFDs on WTI crude oil four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Commenting on BTC price action, trading company QCP Capital maintained the view that despite its losses, BTC/USD was still weathering the macro storm impressively.

“BTC has outperformed both gold and major equities since the Iran conflict began, even as traditional markets have struggled under geopolitical pressure,” it wrote in its latest “Market Color” update.

QCP said it was “notable” that the $65,000-$70,000 range was holding.

BTC price perspectives brighten

Continuing the more positive tone, crypto trader Michaël Van de Poppe called the lower end of Bitcoin’s local range an “entry zone.”

“Great bounce upwards, but nothing confirmed as of yet on Bitcoin. All depends on macroeconomic events; however, I'd rather see a breakout above $71K for confirmation,” he told X followers about the rebound from the March lows. 

“On the other hand, a classic little sweep to $65K just before the push upwards would signal that we're going to get that momentum. Clearly, the lower end of the range is the entry zone. Also, clearly, over a longer timeframe, this is a very cheap opportunity to accumulate more Bitcoin.”

BTC/USDT one-day chart. Source: Michaël Van de Poppe/X

Cointelegraph continues to report on trader consensus over a fresh leg down for BTC/USD as its bear flag breaks down for the second time in 2026.