老六观币笔记

It is now March 7, 2026.
I won't repeat the big views. If you have gone long, please hold on. Regardless of whether it will break 65 again, you must go long. The starting point of the daily decline has not been reached. Even if it breaks 65 again, you should go long. The starting point for Bitcoin #BTC is at least above 81000. Now, just go long if it drops. If it rises above 81, do not give up your long positions because 81000-91000 is a dense trading area. Only when it stands above 90000 again will the bulls become strong. For my view, the end of this upward phase will only be when the monthly line drops below 65000 and does not recover. Currently, if Bitcoin continues to rise, for the phase market, 70000 to 65000 is the time to layout. This view will not be repeated until it is realized or the monthly line drops below 65 and does not recover. I know either you are trapped or you have been liquidated. Anyway, it hurts to go long after it drops. What I can tell you is that you must hold on to the spot; do not cut losses. The small contract long positions should also be held #山寨季讨论量跌至两年新低 #加密市场回调

There is no clear trend, the market is leaning bearish, buying near 65 at #美国“无王”抗议 #比特币ETF价格战

The fear of losing is not yours, but your unwillingness to accept it. What torments you is not the market conditions, but your heart. Right now, just buy and hold. If you think you can see the bottom, then you definitely won’t get the ending at the bottom. The outcome is not something anyone can dictate. It’s fine to make some profits in between, whether you sell prematurely or get stuck is your own choice. There is no bottom in the financial market. At 120,000, you can't escape the peak; at 60,000, you can't catch the bottom. In the future, you might say you sold prematurely at 120,000. There are no absolute bottoms or peaks, only fluctuations in the market phases. If your perspective is correct, is your action correct as well? When examining your own heart, you may find that you cannot do it. For this wave, I am bullish on ETH, expecting a 30% increase. For contracts, it’s a bearish trend, while for spot trading, it’s an opportunity to buy low. The game has always been at #全球市场波动 #摩根士丹利比特币现货ETF .

Your perception is just your perception, now it's just about maintaining the status quo, there are too many trash projects in the crypto space, these trash should go to zero, the liquidity of small coins drying up is a good thing for mainstream coins, you can always believe in BTC, ETH, you can always believe in Trump#全球市场波动 #摩根士丹利比特币现货ETF

The real bottom often emerges during the market silence period. #全球市场波动

Got hit, but still watching twenty-six hundred 😭, let's take it as a family heirloom #全球市场波动 #摩根士丹利比特币现货ETF

"Going with the flow" remains a choice with higher probabilistic advantages, while counter-trend trading is only suitable for a few participants with deep analytical skills.
So will I reach the other side this time? I will definitely reach the other side #BTC行情 #Tether审计

This Ethereum will not pull back above 2100 tonight, right? #BTC行情 #Tether审计 let's just consider it a dream.

Being rational means not increasing my position, hehe. Actually, I'm waiting for the US stock market to pull back 2100#BTC行情 #Tether审计 .

It's hard, but I have to endure #BTC行情 . We'll talk when I can't hold on anymore.

The drop isn't pleasant, as long as there is a volume drop that's fine. In fact, it hasn't dropped too deep, and it's not very strong. #BTC行情 #Tether审计 I don't know if this wave has stopped falling, let's not add positions for now. The next wave of increase is on the way, just a bit of hardship.

Those who are bullish are silent, the feeling of holding a position is not pleasant, it's best to remain inactive for now, the position definitely will not be increased #BTC行情 #Tether审计

Listen Don't fall again #BTC行情 #Tether审计

My rational mind tells me that every time I want to short it will drop, and every time I want to put money in to short it will rise. Now I am ready for C2C #BTC行情 #Tether审计 .

Fluctuations are normal. Suffering is too; just wait for the results. BTC ETH must rise this time, it can't go down anymore #BTC行情 #Tether审计

Currently, BTC is in the range of 69,000 to 68,000. Based on my trading system, I will still choose to go long. This is not due to blind optimism, but rather a result of historical backtesting and risk-reward assessment. The short-term market is weak and bears are strong, but there is also a rebound in this range. The core of the trading logic lies in probability advantage rather than a single outcome — just like the previous round where I increased my position from a floating profit of 66,000-67,000 to 75,700 USD and then reduced my position. Although I did not anticipate the rapid pullback near 76,000, this system is destined not to lose too much, just some light positions with small stop losses. We all know that the market will not change its trajectory due to personal will. If one denies the original system due to an extreme market condition, it is essentially placing "result theory" above "process theory." Although the outcome is not very good, this trading system remains a top choice. Many people know that there are many ways to operate in the short term. No matter how accurate the analysis is, if one is greedy and unwilling, the account will be forced into a state of anxiety and halved. Even if one is not a robot, in some market conditions, the unwillingness to stop loss can lead to bad results. Any strategy will face phase retracements. For example, although the magnitude and speed of the last pullback exceeded expectations, if this system is positioned at a small loss, break-even, or small profit, then if the market improves a bit and runs in one direction for some time, a large profit is inevitable. This long position is a medium to long-term position that will not frequently change direction due to short-term fluctuations, until the stop loss is hit or it reaches near the target position. No matter how accurate the analysis is, you would never think that BTC would rise from 80,000 to 120,000 in 2025; at that time, the market was also bearish. Only after the market moves can conclusions be drawn. In this process, differing opinions are inevitable, and there is a significant gap between being accurate in analysis and executing correctly amidst market fluctuations. Sticking to your own viewpoint and trading in that direction can yield a 50% win rate. The market is uncontrollable; the only thing you can control is your own position. In the short term, I am bearish, but the daily trend still looks bullish. What I can do is to go long and hold when approaching the lower end, #特朗普希望尽快结束对伊朗战争 #美国加密法案再次遇阻 .

Although the market is weak, I just want to go long. The time and position for going short in the long term haven't arrived yet. Going long is very torturous. Keep going and believe in my judgment, #特朗普希望尽快结束对伊朗战争 #美国加密法案再次遇阻

Several major breakthroughs in the history of Bitcoin have occurred suddenly when market sentiment had not fully shifted. These breakthroughs exhibit typical nonlinear characteristics — prices fluctuate within a narrow range for a long time, wearing down traders' patience, and then suddenly launch when most people have given up vigilance, moving so quickly that onlookers cannot react in time. Those investors who persist in holding their positions during weakness often become the biggest beneficiaries of such breakthrough trends #国际油价下跌 #特朗普称对伊战争已胜利

March 26, 2026 Bullish Thinking, the current market is relatively weak
BTC: 70500 is the short-term bull-bear dividing line
Bitcoin has recently formed effective support in the range of 70500-70300 and triggered a rebound. This area serves as a key zone for short-term bull-bear competition. If the price can stabilize above 70500, it is expected to further test the resistance level of 72000. If it cannot hold above 70500 throughout the day, it may trigger short-term pullback risks, and attention should be paid to the support strength in the 68000-68500 range. Watch for stabilization signals near 70500 to confirm whether the short-term trend continues.
ETH: 2020 is an important support, waiting for stabilization signals
Ethereum's long-term support is near 2020, which has been effectively validated multiple times as a bottom area. If the price stabilizes and rebounds here, the mid-term target could be above 2450, rather than being limited to 2300. The current price is oscillating around 2120, and there has not yet been a clear signal of a stop in the decline.
Ideal entry range: 2050-2020, with a high risk-reward ratio;
Light position trial range: 2120-2100, with strict stop-loss below the previous low of 2102.
ETH is currently still in a weak pattern, and a breakthrough and stabilization above 2200 can confirm a short-term trend reversal.
SOL: Breaking through 94 resistance may open up upward space to around 105
SOL's recent key resistance is near 94. If it can effectively break through and stabilize at this position, it is expected to further attack near 105. The current price has not yet formed a strong breakthrough, and in the short term, attention should be paid to the support area of 88-85 below. If the 94 resistance continues to suppress, it will maintain a weak oscillating trend.
Summary and Strategy Suggestions
BTC: Pay attention to the stabilization situation at 70500, and after breaking through, look bullish to 72000, while monitoring the support strength in the 68000-68500 range.
ETH: Wait for stabilization signals in the 2020-2050 range, or try light long positions in the 2120-2100 range (stop-loss below 2100).

The current market volatility is high, it is recommended to trade lightly with #国际油价下跌 #特朗普称对伊战争已胜利 .

March 26, 2026, bullish thinking for today, the market is currently weak

BTC: 70500 is the short-term bull-bear dividing line
Bitcoin has recently formed effective support in the 70500-70300 range and triggered a rebound. This area is a key zone for short-term bull-bear competition. If the price can stabilize above 70500, it is expected to further test the resistance level of 72000. If it cannot stay above 70500 throughout the day, it may trigger short-term correction risks, and attention should be paid to the strength of support in the 68000-68500 range. Signals of stabilization near 70500 need to be observed to confirm whether the short-term trend continues.

ETH: 2020 is an important support, waiting for stabilization signals
Ethereum's long-term support is around 2020, which is an effective bottom area validated multiple times previously. If the price stabilizes and rebounds here, the medium-term target can be above 2450, rather than just limited to 2300. The current price is fluctuating around 2120 and has not yet shown a clear stop-loss signal.
Ideal entry range: 2050-2020, which has a high risk-reward ratio;
Light position testing range: 2120-2100, must strictly set stop-loss below the previous low of 2102.
Currently, ETH is still in a weak pattern, and only after breaking and stabilizing above 2200 can the short-term trend reversal be confirmed.
SOL: Breakthrough of resistance at 94 may open up upward space
SOL's recent key resistance is around 94. If it can effectively break through and stabilize at this position, it is expected to further push towards around 105. The current price has not formed a strong breakthrough, and in the short term, attention should be paid to support in the 88-85 range. If the 94 resistance continues to suppress, the oscillating trend will persist.
Summary and Strategy Suggestions
BTC: Pay attention to the situation of stabilizing at 70500. After breaking through, look for bullish momentum up to 72000.
ETH: Wait for stabilization signals in the 2020-2050 range, or lightly test long positions in the 2120-2100 range (stop-loss below 2100);
(Pay attention to the trend of Bitcoin)
The current market volatility is high, suggesting light positions for doing #国际油价下跌 #特朗普称对伊战争已胜利 .