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It won't drop too much, a bullish resistance has formed, and a small divergence has appeared. Meanwhile, at the new weekly level, there is no significant bearish momentum observed. In this case, pay attention to Bitcoin and Ethereum for a second bottom test; a rebound from the second low point indicates a long position. For Bitcoin, watch the area around 64000-63500 and 1900-1870. If there is a rebound upward, these two positions are critical support points.

Since the unlocking date on March 22,

$RIVER's trend can be described as a classic 'anti-humanity'.

On the unlocking day: there was no crash, but instead, it directly reached a new high after more than a month

Then it pulled back all the way: from $33 → $12, the market took a roller coaster ride

Market sentiment became extreme again: various voices claiming 'breaking below $10' started to fill the air

The bears hadn't reacted yet, and the price directly reversed back to $15 ​​​

The current situation of traditional finance is becoming more and more similar to the cryptocurrency circle at the beginning of 2024, increasingly feeling that the cryptocurrency circle is just an accelerated version of traditional finance.

Recently, I had a conversation with several friends from the traditional VC / PE circle who invest in primary markets and found that some people are trying to jump to secondary markets, with extreme cases being people who directly quit their jobs to trade stocks (although there may be survivor bias).

The core reason for proactively withdrawing from the primary market is not wanting to continue to appease LPs and wanting to seize the secondary opportunities of the AI boom in a timely manner. I once thought that operating in the primary market was about colliding with the smartest minds and investing in the most cutting-edge narratives; now I realize that I am nominally "making investments," but in reality, I have become a senior compliance clerk going through the motions.

Occasionally, a fundamentally strong target emerges, and a bunch of institutions still have to fight to grab that tiny share.

As someone who has been battling in the secondary market for years, I understand this mentality shift very well. Is the secondary market really easy to operate in? Absolutely not. In this extremely inhumane meat grinder, the immediate cost of making mistakes is far more severe than in the primary market, and since the beginning of this year, the US stock market has primarily been about sector rotation, with large-cap stocks not performing as well.

At the beginning of 2024, similar scenes are appearing in the primary cryptocurrency market: good projects have more demand than supply, mostly over-subscribed, and the number of projects available for investment in the primary market is decreasing, leading to several waves of primary institutions transitioning to secondary institutions.

However, most of these primary institutions in the cryptocurrency circle eventually end up defeated in the cruel and high-frequency cycles of secondary operations.

siren is really awesome.

I originally wanted to go long again at 0.77.

What a pity. I missed out on the doubling increase. I got liquidated because I opened a short position on b3,

and I don't have money to open a long on siren anymore. So negative times negative equals liquidation.

If it blows up, it blows up. As soon as I got liquidated, it started to drop. It seems I still need to reduce leverage and extend the time. It's quite easy to break even on short positions.

Long positions can easily get deeply trapped. But short positions can recover quickly with the current altcoins. I still don't recommend holding positions. Just let it settle and continue to move forward.

Use 'Why do we need to pump the price' to judge the actions of the market maker.
For example, after the TGE just distributed airdrops to retail investors, why pump the price? If it goes up, won't it just be sold off by retail investors? Or should we let the airdrop naturally sell off first, recovering 80% of the chips before pumping the price?
For instance, after being listed on Upbit and having no short-selling counterpart, why pump the price to let retail investors profit? The buying pressure was most concentrated in the previous week, making it the best time to unload, so let’s just sell it to the Koreans.
For example, I have already pumped it 3 times, waited two months for the BN spot, and still haven't received my spot notification. It seems I won’t get it, and the market is also struggling a bit, so let’s just sell it first.
For example, next month the investors will unlock their tokens, and the KOLs will also need to give out their chips, so I think I will run first.
I believe many retail investors still love to fantasize too much, even having a mindset that 'the market maker is doing charity.' It’s common to see questions like 'Why isn't this great coin being pumped?'
I want to remind everyone that fundamentally it’s a way of thinking. You should always first consider 'What is their purpose?' and then deduce 'What should their actions be?'.
So evaluate your recently purchased altcoins with this mindset.

The news is chaotic, and the market is in a quarterly panic. It's really time to choose a direction. Currently, things are not going well, but before going down, there is a high probability of a rebound around 68500, as the 4-hour moving averages are still in a sideways state. Let's see if we can stand above the moving averages after the rebound. There is a possibility of going straight down to the third platform, but it's not very high.

Bitcoin has fallen as expected from 69,000, breaking below the 66,000 trend line support we mentioned yesterday, and has not yet reached the target. Let's take a look at the logic behind this market wave.
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First, the mid-bear market is basically a zero-sum game, with scarce liquidity and no fresh blood in the crypto space. One-sided markets are becoming increasingly rare. From a larger perspective, it feels like it can't fall further nor rise. This is because there isn't enough momentum. At such times, it's like a KOL with scarce traffic trying to attract attention; Bitcoin will act out, oscillating up and down, searching for liquidity.

First viewpoint: "The big level is almost there"
The big level is almost there; the war in Iran has escalated, yet it hasn't managed to break below 60,000. The dead assets acquired by Binance at 10,11 have been completely cleared out, and Bitcoin has been halved since 10,11. Altcoins have retreated to the 10,11 needle point. Overall retail sentiment is at a low point. However, it's important to note that the big level of 58,000 has not yet been touched; this is the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement point for the bull market from 2022 to 2025. Although 60,000 is very close, it hasn't been hit. I believe that before a big surge (over 100,000), we will likely need to touch 58,000.

Second viewpoint: "To fall, it must rise; to rise, it must fall"
In simple terms, Bitcoin's liquidity is poor, making it hard to produce a one-sided rise or fall directly. This time, it has struggled to drop from 70,000 to 65,000, thanks to the pull to 76,000; without making the technicals look good, there would be no retail investors getting on board; without retail investors, there isn't enough fuel for a drop.

Third viewpoint: "Reverse logic"
Assumption: Before a big surge, we need to touch 58,000.

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In the short term, with no liquidity, we need to touch 80,000 to trap talent.

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Short-term liquidity is lacking; aim for 80,000.

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To break below the 66,000 support, we need to drop to 63,000 to kill the bulls and trap the bears.

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Summary: The value for money around 60,000 is very high. It will definitely yield huge profits within six months.
But be aware that there will be significant volatility between 58,000 and 83,000, where both bulls and bears will be wiped out before the market can start.
If you like long articles like this, please like and share to support.
Love you all
❤️

It's really funny that oil prices are always sky-high at Friday's close, then on Monday they have to ease up? Looking at this momentum, it seems like land registration must happen over the weekend.

1. $BTC has directly fallen below 66000, truly the epitome of tech stocks; let's see if there will be negative news over the weekend that will cause a drop, and if there's positive news, it might pull back up;

2. $ETH has publicly been called out by Huazi, just have to say it's quite a grand performance;

3. $SOL has become an unnoticed existence, with only 2M on-chain, it's pathetic and lamentable;

KNC's price suddenly rebounded strongly today, once rushing to around 0.20.
The key support is at 0.14-0.15, and resistance is at 0.18-0.20.
Currently, this position is quite awkward: going long worries about being trapped, while going short is concerned about being squeezed. Especially since the funding rate remains at a high negative value of -1.8%, the bearish sentiment is heavy, but it can also suddenly surge.
At the moment, both going long and going short are uncomfortable, it's better to wait and see!

In the next bull market, I believe there are no more than three public chains that are truly worth investing in.

Because AI and open source have significantly lowered the threshold for public chains. Investment banks or large companies looking to launch a chain can fork an existing EVM-compatible chain using ready-made code, tweak the logic with AI, and get it up and running in tens to a hundred hours. Coupled with their own users and compliance resources, the deployment happens quickly.

This has led to the replacement of the previously emphasized "decentralized trust" of public chains with "centralized efficiency + auditable ledgers" in many scenarios. As a result, the differentiation between public chains will become increasingly apparent. The ones that can stand firm in the long term might just be three:

$ETH: focused on the settlement layer, a credit base, the most decentralized public chain;

$TON: if Telegram can indeed bring a large number of users onto the chain, the imagination is vast;

$SOL: an American public chain, the bastion of meme coins; as long as memes exist, it will too;

As for AVAX, SUI, APT, ADA, these are likely to fall into a long-term competitive and fragmented situation. The market does not need so many public chains; the ones worth investing in for the next bull market are ETH, TON, and SOL.

Current price 0.02633, technical indicators show clear bottom signals!
Let the chart do the talking:

After the price builds a bottom around 0.022, there has been a continuous increase in bullish candles, breaking through the short-term downtrend line;

The green volume bars have significantly expanded, indicating strengthened buying power; overall, it is in a recovery phase after a low-level consolidation, and the long-term logic of the robotics + automation industry remains strong.

Operation suggestions:

At the current price, take a light long position, or add positions in batches around the 0.025 pullback, with a stop loss set below 0.024, targeting first at 0.030-0.035.

The era of robots has arrived, opening a long position in ROBO at the current price is a way to secure a position in the next wave of technology themes!

BTC Market Analysis—— 3.27
Daily Chart
1) The daily chart is still in a volatile market, and we can see that for the past week it has been fluctuating around 699 eq.
In fact, there is currently no clear direction in the volatility, and it is significantly affected by events.
2) In this volatile market, the focus remains on predation. For example, this week, we noted the predation on the Monday high point MH.
Then, it dropped yesterday, and from a liquidity perspective, ML 673 is waiting for predation.
After predation, we can continue to focus on whether to directly take down the 656 range—L, or first rebound to 699 eq, and then cover the fvg.
Hourly Chart
1) Currently, the hourly chart is two quiet, and it has dropped. The expected support at 688 yesterday did not hold, the upward structure has been broken, so the lower 673 ML is waiting for predation.
2) Therefore, at this moment, the focus is on shorting opportunities, targeting 673. Let's first look at H 1 for bearish ob, and here refuse to distribute for shorting.
For going long, we need to wait for a drop below 673 to see if a structure of predation followed by accumulation appears.

Last November, there was an adjustment period of over 50 days.
From February 6 until now, it will also approach an adjustment time of over 40 days.
The next 1-2 weeks are a critical turning window.
The historical trend indicates a breakdown after consolidation, continuing to move downward.
The current structure corresponds to this, running towards lower positions.
The overall direction remains a downward trend.
After a false breakout, there is a high probability of a real breakdown occurring.
The trend is highly likely to hunt for long stop losses.
The main strategy near resistance levels is still to go short at high prices.
If support is broken, it will switch to following the trend and shorting.
We are far from the ultimate washout and the medium to long-term accumulation phase.
The true stage bottom requires market bulls.
It will only appear when there is complete despair and unanimous bearish sentiment.

BP dropped from 0.28 at the opening to below 0.13, with a circulating market value of 30 million and an FDV of 130 million.

This so-called compliant exchange, preparing for an IPO, is a legitimate force, yet it takes advantage of platform users, siphoning off their transaction fees.

Using insider trading to dump and sell, with no market value management; this level of market value is really not even as good as a meme.

The world is indeed a huge makeshift stage, and when liquidity runs dry, the situation looks quite ugly.

As long as most people are still thinking about bottom fishing, there is no bottom
Right now, the market rally is just picking up the pieces, the buyers
Newbies die from chasing the highs, experts die from bottom fishing
Inevitably, there will be further declines; this pattern has occurred countless times
When a new trend has begun, all resistance is in vain
If no higher high appears in the 15-minute timeframe
It will trigger a massive drop of 5.0
Today still bearish, brothers holding short positions continue to hold
Bitcoin rebounds to around 695 and continues to drop
Ethereum roughly rebounds to 2090 and continues to drop

VC Coin/alpha Coin research can be classified into several categories:
1. Projects that have been listed on Binance spot trading will initially drop due to selling pressure; this is an opportunity to short and make a profit;
When the price has nowhere to drop, consider building a position, betting on an opportunity at the Korean exchange and the second segment; for example, $kat
2. New targets on alpha, based on fundamentals and on-chain data, buy in at a low opening price, betting on the opportunity of Binance contracts and Korean exchange contracts; for example, $PRL
3. mm operates on coins, earning from such targets can be quite difficult; you can observe oi, liquidation data, trading methods, etc., and try playing around, characterized by making profits through contract liquidations of long and short positions; for example, $siren
4. The dealer's method involves raising the spot price to distribute chips; you can consider using K-line trends to play in waves for profit, such as: $cys $collect

Think carefully about your strengths, which path is more suitable for you, and focus your main efforts on creating the greatest wealth in your area of expertise!

Not taking action now can surpass 99% of people

Yesterday when Binance Ai Pro reached 3m, I instinctively felt it was topping out

Sure enough, today it directly dropped to 0.5M,

Even if it rebounds now, it doesn't mean much

When you go to chase it, it starts to drop again

If you don't have time to catch the morning session now, then don't participate in trading

The more hot topics you follow, the quicker you lose money

Cryptocurrency Market Analysis

【ETH &BTC】Today we focus on two positions for support and breakout; if the targets are not met, we can hold off for now.

BTC
The first requirement is that the drop does not break 69200.

The second point is to watch for a recovery to break above the 1-hour closing price at 70670,2140, then open a long position, if it breaks down below 69000.

ETH
The first requirement is that the drop does not break 2108.
The second requirement is 2100, then consider shorting.