Bitcoin has fallen as expected from 69,000, breaking below the 66,000 trend line support we mentioned yesterday, and has not yet reached the target. Let's take a look at the logic behind this market wave.

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First, the mid-bear market is basically a zero-sum game, with scarce liquidity and no fresh blood in the crypto space. One-sided markets are becoming increasingly rare. From a larger perspective, it feels like it can't fall further nor rise. This is because there isn't enough momentum. At such times, it's like a KOL with scarce traffic trying to attract attention; Bitcoin will act out, oscillating up and down, searching for liquidity.

First viewpoint: "The big level is almost there"

The big level is almost there; the war in Iran has escalated, yet it hasn't managed to break below 60,000. The dead assets acquired by Binance at 10,11 have been completely cleared out, and Bitcoin has been halved since 10,11. Altcoins have retreated to the 10,11 needle point. Overall retail sentiment is at a low point. However, it's important to note that the big level of 58,000 has not yet been touched; this is the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement point for the bull market from 2022 to 2025. Although 60,000 is very close, it hasn't been hit. I believe that before a big surge (over 100,000), we will likely need to touch 58,000.

Second viewpoint: "To fall, it must rise; to rise, it must fall"

In simple terms, Bitcoin's liquidity is poor, making it hard to produce a one-sided rise or fall directly. This time, it has struggled to drop from 70,000 to 65,000, thanks to the pull to 76,000; without making the technicals look good, there would be no retail investors getting on board; without retail investors, there isn't enough fuel for a drop.

Third viewpoint: "Reverse logic"

Assumption: Before a big surge, we need to touch 58,000.

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In the short term, with no liquidity, we need to touch 80,000 to trap talent.

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Short-term liquidity is lacking; aim for 80,000.

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To break below the 66,000 support, we need to drop to 63,000 to kill the bulls and trap the bears.

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Summary: The value for money around 60,000 is very high. It will definitely yield huge profits within six months.

But be aware that there will be significant volatility between 58,000 and 83,000, where both bulls and bears will be wiped out before the market can start.

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