橙子研究院

【Buyback LDO to Save the Market? Analyzing Lido's True Profitability】

Lido (LDO) Core Data and Mechanism

I. Project Positioning
1. Track: ETH Liquidity Staking (LSD)
2. Core Product: stETH / wstETH
3. Essence: Staking Intermediary, Providing Liquidity

II. Current Core Data (2026)
1. TVL: $18.45B
2. Monthly Fee: About $40.55M
3. 2025 Revenue: $40.5M (Year-on-Year -23%)
Conclusion:
The scale is still large, but profitability is starting to decline

III. Historical Trends (2021–2026)

TVL Changes
• 2021: < $1B
• 2022: ~$7B
• 2023: ~$10B
• 2024: ~$15B
• 2025: ~$20B
• 2026: ~$18B

👉 Key Point: Turning Point After 2025

Revenue Changes
• 2023: ~$52M
• 2024: ~$52M+
• 2025: $40.5M
• 2026: Continued Pressure

👉 Key Point: Growth Stagnation, Beginning to Decline

IV. Ways to Make Money (Core Mechanism)

Revenue Sources
• ETH Staking Rewards
• Lido's Commission 10%

Revenue Distribution
• 5% → Nodes
• 5% → DAO

DAO Fund Usage
• Technical Development
• Incentive Subsidies
• Security Audits
• Operational Costs

👉 Key: LDO Does Not Pay Direct Dividends

V. Current Changes (Very Critical)

Why Revenue is Declining
• ETH Yield Decline
• User Funds Outflow
• Increased Competition

Industry Structural Changes
• Capital Flowing to CEX / Institutions
• Simple LST Proportion Declining

Competitors
• Coinbase
• Binance
• Rocket Pool

👉 Key Point: Market Share is Being Diluted

VI. Buyback Proposal (Market Focus)
• Use Up to 10,000 stETH
• Buy LDO in Batches
• Single Purchase ≤ 1,000 stETH
• Slippage ≤ 3%
• Channels: DEX + CEX

👉 Key Points:
• Buyback Enters the Treasury
• No Participation in Governance

👉 Essence: Boost Confidence, Not Dividends

VII. Risks (Must Know)
• Technical Risks (Contracts/Nodes)
• Market Risks (ETH Price)
• Liquidity Risks (Depegging)
• Regulatory Risks

VIII. Core Conclusion

👉 Lido is:
“A protocol that is large in scale + stable in revenue + slowing in growth”

IX. One-Sentence Summary

👉 Not a Growth Stock, but a “Cash Flow Tool”

Market Strong → Earn More
Market Weak → Revenue Decline

#ldo $LDO #美伊和谈陷僵局 $BTC

【Is ETH Stronger than BTC? A Comprehensive Analysis of Key Support and Rebound Space】

Bitcoin has finally ended its 49-day flag consolidation. During the third touch of the flag's lower edge, there was no effective resistance. After a slight fluctuation, it broke down, resulting in a small waterfall.

Let's review this market, especially the latter half. Each rebound failed to reach significant resistance levels, and the market looked quite weak. However, influenced by the situation in Iran, short-term fluctuations were intertwined with both bullish and bearish sentiments, making operations quite challenging.

We previously mentioned that a descending flag pattern is meant to be broken, and it's just a matter of time. The overall direction remains bearish, and the current trend aligns with our expectations.

Since it has broken the descending flag pattern, it basically confirms that this rebound has ended, and the market has returned to a downtrend.

From a daily perspective, MACD has formed a second death cross near the 0 axis and is beginning to extend downwards into the bearish zone, with an unattractive shape and strong downward momentum.

However, I believe it won't continue to fall sharply from here; it will first oscillate before declining further.

There are two reasons for this. Firstly, Bitcoin is nearing the support level around 64000 to 65000, which indicates a rebound demand. Secondly, after the descending flag pattern was broken, there is also a motive for a pullback to confirm the validity of the breakdown.

However, the first height of this pullback is indeed limited. We will first look at the lower edge around 67200. If it can stand above and return to the flag pattern, there will still be an opportunity for 72000.

Personally, I remain pessimistic; the probability of encountering resistance at 67200 and continuing downward is quite high, so be mentally prepared!

Looking further down, the only visible support is the previous low around the 60000 mark. The expectation is to break through and close at around 58000 to 59000 before making a rebound. Once we reach this level, the rebound strength will significantly increase, and we will analyze it more specifically when we get there!

Finally, let's talk about Ethereum. The situation of Ethereum is similar to that of Bitcoin, but due to the strong momentum of the previous rebound, its structural form is not as poor as Bitcoin's. The major support is near the trend line at 1900, with the potential not to make a new low, and the rebound is expected to be stronger than Bitcoin, with resistance around 2100!

Operational Strategy: The position at 58000 is not too far away, just a few points of space. Friends who are deeply trapped should hold on, while those who want to add positions or enter can make a strong move at 58000.

#BTC $BTC #特朗普希望尽快结束对伊朗战争 $ETH

【Last push? If it doesn't reach 76000, be careful to rush down to 58000!】

Currently, the major resistance above the big coin faces two key pressures:

First is the upper edge of the box, around 74000;
Second is the upper edge of the flag, around 76000

These two pressure zones are very close, and when combined, the overall suppression will be stronger. From the current market perspective, the selling pressure at the 76000 line is particularly obvious; a significant breakthrough and stabilization are necessary for the market to have a chance to further open up space and extend towards above 80000.

Therefore, in the short term, it is still recommended to remain cautious and focus on the performance of these two key positions.

In terms of rhythm, this wave is likely a phase-based "key attack," and can even be understood as an important test for the bulls. If it can effectively break through and continue to rise, the trend is expected to strengthen; conversely, if the high fails, the market is likely to weaken again, and the lower 58000 range will once again become a target area.

In terms of operation, it is crucial to pay extra attention to the direction choice of the market; once a clear breakthrough or weakening signal appears, positions should be adjusted promptly rather than hesitating.

#BTC $BTC #黄金创43年来最大单周跌幅 $ETH

[TAO Four-Hour Trend Analysis]

Currently, from the 4-hour structure, the price has reached the upper channel resistance, and there are signs of resistance in the short term. The support level is roughly around 274, and as the trend progresses, this support will gradually rise.

From the perspective of trading volume, the overall performance is still quite healthy, with good participation from capital, indicating that the trend has not deteriorated. In the short term, it is more inclined to have a period of consolidation at high levels before seeking new upward momentum.

If the structure is not broken, after this consolidation, there is still a chance to make another push for a new high, with a target around 332.

In terms of operation, it is not advisable to chase highs at this position; a more ideal approach would be to wait for a confirmation of a pullback to the support below before considering a low-entry follow-up, as this would provide a more reasonable risk-reward ratio.

#TAO $TAO

【edgeX, to put it simply, is a "market amplifier"】

1. First, look at the data

TVL: $161.59M
OI: $1.13B (directly crushing TVL)
30-day trading volume: $77.97B

Annual fees: $266.37M
Annual income: $193.55M

What does this mean?
Not much capital, but extremely high leverage, trading is very active

2. Profitability

Income conversion rate: ≈ 72%
Profit margin: ≈ 60%+

The conclusion is simple:
This project is not without value, it just makes too much money

3. But here comes the problem

Q4 2025: Income $155.81M (peak)
Q1 2026: Income $70.94M

Directly halved:
Income ↓ 54%
Profit ↓ 52%

What does this indicate?
It has started to "cool down"

4. The trend is already very clear

2025: Soaring
Q4: Peak stage
2026: Obvious decline

Current state:
From growth → fluctuation → even weakening

5. Don't misinterpret the essence

The essence of edgeX is:
Orderbook perpetual contract DEX

Not DeFi wealth management
Not value accumulation

It is:
An "on-chain exchange" that relies on trading volume for sustenance

6. Advantages vs Risks

Advantages:
Can make money, high profits, real trading exists

Risks:
1. Market sensitivity (if the market cools, it directly cools down)
2. Low TVL, weak capital stickiness
3. Income has already started to decline
4. The competition is extremely intense (dYdX / Hyperliquid / GMX / Aevo)

To put it bluntly:
There is no absolute moat

7. Core conclusion

What is edgeX?

High profitability + high volatility + strong cyclical project

8. How to play?

Suitable for:
Short-term / Swing / Sentiment trading

Not suitable for:
Long-term holding / Bear market holding on

9. The most straightforward statement

It is not a value project, it is a traffic business

Market hot: Printing machine
Market cold: Profit shrinkage

In summary, a stronger statement:

For this type of project, what you need to do is not "faith",
But —
Make money along with it when it is making money.

#DEX $EDGE

【In one sentence, who is really controlling the market for BTC?】

Let's first sort out the current structure of the big pie. From a graphical perspective, the big pie's descending flag pattern is very standard. It touches the upper edge of the flag and encounters resistance, beginning a downward test of the lower edge. The overall structure is clear, but the process in between is unusually complex, with ups and downs, bulls and bears interwoven, and frequent inducements for both longs and shorts in a small range...

The current big pie is no longer the market's big pie; it's the big pie of the old special family. Whether it goes up or down is just a matter of a single sentence. Just now, a casual comment suggested to take a break for a few days, and the big pie shot up with a bullish candle, only for Iran to come out and refute it, saying no one has even seen it, what the hell are we talking about! Who should I believe? This world really is just a makeshift stage!!! Forget it, no one can be trusted; let's broaden our perspective and trust ourselves more!

Currently, the big pie, disregarding the news aspect, is still in a downward phase, and the target remains the lower edge of the flag pattern, roughly around 66400.

This position was mentioned before as a short-term opportunity to bet on a rebound. As long as we keep a close eye on the lower edge and it doesn't break effectively, the chance to capitalize on a rebound here is still quite significant, with a resistance level around 72400.

If it breaks effectively, the speed of decline could be relatively fast, with a small support at 64000, but the likelihood of holding is low. The previous low at 60000 is also expected to offer slight resistance, and the possibility of making new lows greatly increases. The operational positions should still focus on the entry opportunities in the range of 58000 to 59000 that were mentioned earlier!

#特朗普考虑结束伊朗冲突 $BTC #BTC走势分析 $ETH

【Crude oil breaks 100, while gold plummets! What dangerous signals is the market releasing?⚠️】

Today, the global market shows a clear divergence: gold has fallen below 4100 USD/ounce, silver has dropped below 61 USD/ounce, while crude oil has strongly surpassed the 100 USD mark. This combination of "safe-haven asset correction and soaring energy prices" essentially reflects that the current market focus has shifted from pure risk aversion to deep concerns about "inflation rising again".

Logically, escalating geopolitical conflicts directly impact energy supply, especially crude oil and natural gas. Once transportation is disrupted or production capacity is limited, energy prices will quickly rise, thereby increasing global production costs and transportation costs, creating inflationary pressure. Crude oil standing above 100 USD often means that inflation is unlikely to fall rapidly, which is also an important signal for market repricing.

In this context, the short-term decline of gold and silver does not mean that the logic of risk aversion has disappeared; rather, it is more due to market expectations that interest rates will remain high or even tighten further. In other words, the current market is gambling on a combination of "high inflation + high interest rates", which temporarily suppresses precious metals but still supports them in the medium to long term.

For the global financial market, the impact of this structure is multi-layered: first, U.S. stocks and other risk assets will face greater pressure, as the high interest rate environment combined with rising costs compresses corporate profit margins; second, capital from emerging markets may accelerate outflow, increasing the attractiveness of USD assets; third, the commodities sector (especially energy) will become one of the few beneficiaries.

For the crypto market, it is also difficult to remain unaffected. In the context of tightening liquidity, overall risk appetite declines, and Bitcoin and altcoins often follow risk assets under pressure. However, if inflation spirals out of control and the credit system wavers, some capital may still flow back into assets that tell the "anti-inflation narrative".

Overall, the current market is gradually shifting from "liquidity-driven" to "macro-game driven". Energy, interest rates, and geopolitical situations will become the core variables determining the trend of global asset prices for some time to come.

#黄金创43年来最大单周跌幅 $XAU #特朗普考虑结束伊朗冲突 $XAG

【Three-Year Bull Market, Altcoins Are Slowly Dying? The Truth Is Heartbreaking💔】

This market looks both infuriating and amusing😂. Look at the coins in these pictures; the moment they launched, it was like they drew you a "blueprint for the future," but then you turn around and see the standard textbook-level "dumping candlestick": high open, fluctuations, a continuous drop, and finally lying flat like it's dead📉

I used to think that listing on Binance was the "highlight moment" for projects, but now I've realized it's more like the "starting point for the dealer's harvest"🎯. Once liquidity comes in, as more people take over and the chips are loosened, it's a direct switch from "telling stories" to "dumping to cash out." While you're still researching fundamentals, they are already studying the balance in your account💸

What's most absurd is that these small coins with market values from a few million to tens of millions, which used to be targets for funds in the old market, would easily multiply by 10 or 20 times🚀. And now? Forget about price increases; just managing to avoid a halving is considered a conscious effort from the dealer🤡. The launch is not a starting point; it's an ending point; it's not good news; it's a liquidity exit.

Looking back over the past three years, Bitcoin has been a bull🐂, while altcoins seem to have undergone a three-year bear market🐻. Many people cling to altcoins, the logic is not wrong, and their faith is strong, but the reality is that their accounts are slowly dwindling to zero📉. It's not that you didn't hold long enough; it's that the direction was wrong from the start.

To put it plainly, the market has changed:
It’s not about "buying and waiting for a bull market," but rather "choosing wrong is a direct death sentence"⚠️

Will altcoins still have market activity? Definitely, but only for a very few🎯. For most projects, from the moment they list, the ending has already been written.

So now, we really need to be a bit more clear-headed:
Don't buy randomly❌, don't hold blindly❌, don't cling to sentiment❌

The market exists, but it's not for everyone.
Choosing correctly is much more important than hard work🧠📊

#山寨季何时到来？ $ETH #币安KOL引荐计划 $BNB

【BTC short-term outlook rebounds to 74000, focus on reducing positions for T trading】

The Federal Reserve meeting concluded with an overall hawkish tone: maintaining interest rates, only one rate cut expected this year, while raising inflation expectations and signaling that rate hikes are not ruled out. Overall, this creates some pressure on market liquidity.

On the market, Bitcoin has already reacted in advance, accelerating downward after breaking below 73000, currently oscillating around 70700. In the short term, there is some demand for a rebound here.

If a rebound occurs, pay close attention to the area around 74000, which is the confirmation position after the trendline break and a key range for reducing positions for T trading.

From a structural perspective, daily top divergence has formed, and the probability of a rebound peaking is increasing, so it is not recommended to blindly chase prices during the rebound.

In terms of operations, maintain patience, trade T when the rebound reaches the target, and if there is a subsequent pullback, then look for opportunities at lower positions. The current stage focuses on controlling positions and defense.

#美联储3月议息会议 $BTC #SEC批准纳斯达克代币化股票试点 $ETH

【 The Federal Reserve's "hawkish tone"! BTC drops below 73000, is the real risk just beginning?】

Late at night, the dust settles. The conclusion of the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting on March 18, 2026: maintain interest rates, only plan to cut rates once this year, raise inflation expectations, and add a new risk warning for the Middle East. Dot plot (interest rate path): by the end of 2026: 3.4% (only one rate cut this year, 25bp), by the end of 2027: 3.1% (another rate cut, 25bp), by 2028 and long-term: 3.1% (long-term rates raised by 0.1 percentage points compared to December).

After the meeting, Powell released strong hawkish signals: emphasized that there will be no rate cuts without a sustained decline in inflation, and mentioned the possibility of rate hikes!

The previous analysis indicated that my personal judgment on the market is pessimistic, one core reason being the concern that this meeting would release more bearish news without cutting rates, and unfortunately, this turned out to be the case.

Bitcoin reacted in advance, accelerating after breaking the support at 73000, currently located near the support oscillation around 70000【as shown in Figure 1】

Overall, Bitcoin still has certain support here, it may dip below 70000, but there is a slight rebound demand, and the probability of a rebound confirming the trendline breakout is still quite high. The current position is near 74000【as shown in Figure 2】

From a broader cycle perspective, the daily top divergence has formed, a bearish engulfing pattern on the 2-day line, all pointing to the expectation that this rebound may reach its peak. Therefore, a small rebound is not recommended for entry【as shown in Figure 3】

In terms of operations, if you followed our advice to secure profits in the range of 74000 to 75000 and reduced your position, then you can patiently wait for the support opportunity at the bottom edge of the descending flag, which is around 66000. This position is both offensive and defensive, with a high risk-reward ratio.

But one point to note, if the bottom edge of the flag is effectively broken, a small waterfall may occur, and a new low is highly probable. The range of 58000 to 59000 will be a better opportunity to enter for a rebound!

Operation suggestion: wait for a pullback to 74000 US dollars, consider exiting, and then buy back at a lower price

#美联储3月议息会议 $BTC #BTC走势分析 $ETH

【Interest rate decision is approaching, will BTC change the trend?】

The large coin has finally reached the pressure zone near 75000 after a small upward movement. This is an important resistance level we have mentioned several times, and as expected, it met resistance at the high. Currently, there is a small upper shadow line left. 【As shown in Figure 1】

From the 4-hour level, the high has retraced, and the divergence is already quite obvious, indicating a need for a pullback and adjustment.

But is this the end point of this round of rebound? We need to focus on whether the daily closing can stand above 75000, this key position. If it can stabilize above, the market will likely approach 80000; if it remains below 75000, the risk of hitting the top will significantly increase.

Therefore, we need to pay attention to the support strength around 73000. If 73000 is effectively broken down during the decline, the probability of this rebound ending will be quite high! 【As shown in Figure 2】

From a personal subjective perspective, I tend to be a bit pessimistic. The first reason is that after touching an important resistance level, there was no decisive breakthrough, but rather a return inside the flag pattern, indicating excessive consumption of bullish strength.

Secondly, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting is on the 19th, and it is basically impossible to cut rates this time. On the contrary, bad news may come from inflation impacts due to rising oil prices caused by war blockades.

The large coin has also risen quite a bit recently; if adverse influences arise, the US stocks will fall, and the large coin's drop will be even larger!

Thus, the current stage should focus on defense, avoiding greed and rashness, chasing highs and killing lows!

欢迎加入橙子二级行情聊天室

Operation idea: currently hold the spot, using 73000 as a defensive position, still expecting to exit in batches above 78000 to make T

#美联储3月议息会议 $BTC #比特币突破7.5万美元 $ETH

【BTC script is being realized: first 80,000, then 50,000, finally 100,000?】

BTC script is being realized: first 80,000, then 50,000, finally 100,000?
For more than a month, I have been repeatedly discussing a market script in my articles:

BTC first rebounds to 75,000—80,000 → then retests → finally hits 100,000 USD (as shown in the first image)

At that time, many people were skeptical, but from the current market perspective, the trend is actually progressing step by step according to this logic.

The previously emphasized support at 67,000 has been successfully validated by the market.
Bitcoin dropped to around 67,000 before starting to rebound, and is currently back above 70,000, gradually advancing towards the 75,000 area.

In other words:

The rebound target for the first phase has basically been realized, but it is important to note that I still define this wave as a rebound structure, rather than a main upward wave.

If the market continues to follow this script, there is a high probability that there will be a relatively obvious correction later, with the key focus still being:

58,000—60,000 USD

This position is more likely to form a true phase bottom, so the most important thing going forward is not to chase after gains, but rather: how to do T

If BTC rebounds to around 78,000—80,000, it can actually be considered to gradually reduce positions to do T and wait for the correction to buy back the chips.

In simple terms: first make swings to lower costs, then wait for the real main upward wave.

If the script is completed, there is still a chance to see the real big market in the future:

BTC hitting 100,000 USD

#BTC走势分析 $BTC #币安钱包TGE $ETH

【Once a market value of tens of millions was a hundred times coin, but now it has become a harvesting machine!】

Today I took a glance at Binance's gainers list and suddenly felt a bit dazed.

Coins like TOWNS and COS, with a market value of 10 to 20 million USD, are now prominently listed on Binance's spot market.
Back in the 2018–2021 era, if a project with this market value could get listed on Binance, it basically meant it was going to take off.

The logic back then was simple:

Market value of 10–30 million USD = whales are ready to pump.
Not to mention, starting at 10x, 20x was not a dream.

And now?

The same market value, the same story, but the plot has completely changed—
Launch → pump for a wave → then it's just crazy unloading.

In the end, what remains is the familiar line:

“Thank you all for picking up the tab, wishing everyone prosperity.”

The most unfortunate are still us, sitting in front of the screen, who will forever believe in the “next hundred times coin.”

But joking aside, the current market structure has indeed changed.

Will there still be a bull market for altcoins in the future?

I believe there will be, but the logic is completely different now.

In this cycle, it is very likely that a reality will emerge:

90% of altcoins will gradually go to zero, with only a very few projects truly surviving.

Because funds in the current market have been dispersed too much:
1. ETFs have siphoned off some of the funds
2. Mainstream assets are becoming stronger
3. Exchanges are starting to list US stock assets
4. The entire market's attention is constantly being diverted

In such an environment, future trends may no longer be a “comprehensive altcoin bull market,” but more like:

A structural market for a few quality projects.

So to survive in the crypto space, one may really have to face one phrase:

Choice is far greater than effort.

Choosing the right track, choosing the right project, choosing the right cycle,
may be more important than monitoring the market for 18 hours.

Sometimes I can't help but sigh:

Does the crypto world still have a future?

Perhaps the answer is yes.
It's just that this future may not belong to everyone
#山寨季何时到来？ $BTC #山寨币热点 $ETH