【Interest rate decision is approaching, will BTC change the trend?】
The large coin has finally reached the pressure zone near 75000 after a small upward movement. This is an important resistance level we have mentioned several times, and as expected, it met resistance at the high. Currently, there is a small upper shadow line left. 【As shown in Figure 1】
From the 4-hour level, the high has retraced, and the divergence is already quite obvious, indicating a need for a pullback and adjustment.
But is this the end point of this round of rebound? We need to focus on whether the daily closing can stand above 75000, this key position. If it can stabilize above, the market will likely approach 80000; if it remains below 75000, the risk of hitting the top will significantly increase.
Therefore, we need to pay attention to the support strength around 73000. If 73000 is effectively broken down during the decline, the probability of this rebound ending will be quite high! 【As shown in Figure 2】
From a personal subjective perspective, I tend to be a bit pessimistic. The first reason is that after touching an important resistance level, there was no decisive breakthrough, but rather a return inside the flag pattern, indicating excessive consumption of bullish strength.
Secondly, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting is on the 19th, and it is basically impossible to cut rates this time. On the contrary, bad news may come from inflation impacts due to rising oil prices caused by war blockades.
The large coin has also risen quite a bit recently; if adverse influences arise, the US stocks will fall, and the large coin's drop will be even larger!
Thus, the current stage should focus on defense, avoiding greed and rashness, chasing highs and killing lows!
Operation idea: currently hold the spot, using 73000 as a defensive position, still expecting to exit in batches above 78000 to make T