【 The Federal Reserve's "hawkish tone"! BTC drops below 73000, is the real risk just beginning?】
Late at night, the dust settles. The conclusion of the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting on March 18, 2026: maintain interest rates, only plan to cut rates once this year, raise inflation expectations, and add a new risk warning for the Middle East. Dot plot (interest rate path): by the end of 2026: 3.4% (only one rate cut this year, 25bp), by the end of 2027: 3.1% (another rate cut, 25bp), by 2028 and long-term: 3.1% (long-term rates raised by 0.1 percentage points compared to December).
After the meeting, Powell released strong hawkish signals: emphasized that there will be no rate cuts without a sustained decline in inflation, and mentioned the possibility of rate hikes!
The previous analysis indicated that my personal judgment on the market is pessimistic, one core reason being the concern that this meeting would release more bearish news without cutting rates, and unfortunately, this turned out to be the case.
Bitcoin reacted in advance, accelerating after breaking the support at 73000, currently located near the support oscillation around 70000【as shown in Figure 1】
Overall, Bitcoin still has certain support here, it may dip below 70000, but there is a slight rebound demand, and the probability of a rebound confirming the trendline breakout is still quite high. The current position is near 74000【as shown in Figure 2】
From a broader cycle perspective, the daily top divergence has formed, a bearish engulfing pattern on the 2-day line, all pointing to the expectation that this rebound may reach its peak. Therefore, a small rebound is not recommended for entry【as shown in Figure 3】
In terms of operations, if you followed our advice to secure profits in the range of 74000 to 75000 and reduced your position, then you can patiently wait for the support opportunity at the bottom edge of the descending flag, which is around 66000. This position is both offensive and defensive, with a high risk-reward ratio.
But one point to note, if the bottom edge of the flag is effectively broken, a small waterfall may occur, and a new low is highly probable. The range of 58000 to 59000 will be a better opportunity to enter for a rebound!
Operation suggestion: wait for a pullback to 74000 US dollars, consider exiting, and then buy back at a lower price