btcusd

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has had a Higher Lows trend-line supporting it that started on the December 2018 Bear Cycle bottom. Last month the price tested it and held. That's part of the long-term Rising Wedge pattern as shown on the chat.
What's also shown is that BTC is no stranger to this pattern. A similar 7-year Rising Wedge broke to the downside during the 2018 Bear Cycle. Even though by the time of the Higher Lows test, BTC had already dropped by -70%, more than almost the -55% of the current (2026) Bear Cycle, today's one is more aggressive as it almost tested the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level from the previous Bear Cycle bottom, whereas 2018 was on the 0.236 Fib and bottomed on the 0.382.
This is why we've argued in previous analyses that the 0.5 Fib level is a much more likely candidate for a new bottom and sits around $45000.
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#BTCUSD
Entry Range $68,200 – $68,800

Stop Loss (SL) $66,450

Take Profit 1 (TP1) $70,200

Take Profit 2 (TP2) $71,500

Take Profit 3 (TP3) $73,000
BTC Technical Analysis
Bitcoin is currently consolidating within a high-stakes range after failing to sustain its position above the psychological $70,000 mark.
Current Trend: BTC is showing a slight bearish lean in the short term, trading around the $68,000–$69,500 zone. The market is reacting to massive liquidation levels on both sides.
Key Resistance: The primary hurdle remains at $71,500. A daily close above this level is required to regain bullish momentum toward previous highs.
Support Levels: A critical support zone exists at $67,500. If the price breaks below this on a 4-hour candle, we could see a rapid correction toward the $63,000 demand zone.
Indicators: The RSI (Relative Strength Index) on the 4H chart is hovering near 48 (neutral), suggesting the market is waiting for a breakout catalyst.
Trade Setup (Scalp/Short-term)
If you are looking for a potential entry based on the current support bounce, here is a structured setup:
Entry Range $68,200 – $68,800
Stop Loss (SL) $66,450
Take Profit 1 (TP1) $70,200
Take Profit 2 (TP2) $71,500
Take Profit 3 (TP3) $73,000

Risk Warning: The massive options expiry today means "fake-outs" are very common. Ensure you use low leverage and stick to your stop loss strictly

This is no secret. We all know it. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) tends to rise when the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY, black trend-line) is cheap and drops when it rises. No rocket science here, their negative (inverse) correlation is natural as BTC is valued in USD.
Based on this, what this chart shows though that the Dollar is about to start a new multi-year rally while Bitcoin has already been within its new Bear Cycle since October 2025.
Technically the USD bottomed in June 2025 and started forming a prolonged Support base so the lag it technically natural. This has happened during almost every Cycle, BTC didn't start its Bear Cycle exactly when DXY bottomed and started rising as it's not 'ceteris paribus', other market dynamics play their role too. But the value of the USD has indeed the most important effect macro-wise.
So now that we've determined that this can happen, what's next? Panic? Not exactly. First, the 2011 Bear Cycle has shown that BTC can bottom even though the DXY keeps rising. 2014 has shown that DXY can accelerate rallying aggressively but BTC can continue to a 'normal' Bear Cycle bottom without collapse. 2018/19 has shown quite similar results, when DXY kept rising but much less aggressively even though BTC had already started a new Bull Cycle.
The real problem is the 2022 period. BTC bottomed almost exactly when DXY peaked and started correcting violently. But of course this was a very special situation as the Inflation Crisis of that period drove global markets down violently as the aggressive money supply increase (printing) to recover from the COVID lockdowns inflated prices. Coupled with the Ukraine - Russia war that dealt a hit to the economies through historic energy price spikes, we got that situation: The Dollar has to peak and correct aggressively in order for BTC to bottom.
So is this time similar to 2022 (Iran war = projected inflation but of course no massive money printing before as during COVID) or to the three Bear Cycles before? Statistically the latter. And that implies that the most probable outcome is for the DXY to continue rising, while Bitcoin extends its Bear Cycle but on a slower pace until the eventual bottom in Q4 2026.
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I have been watching Bitcoin long enough to realize that the price rarely moves for the reasons people confidently claim. At first, I thought I could connect every spike and every drop to a headline, especially when tensions in the Middle East began dominating global news cycles. I spent hours on research, jumping between geopolitical updates and the BTC USD chart, trying to make sense of whether conflict truly drives Bitcoin higher—or if that’s just a narrative we repeat when we don’t fully understand the market.

What kept bothering me was the timing. There were moments when tensions escalated—missile strikes, oil concerns, rising uncertainty—and I expected Bitcoin to surge as a “safe haven.” Sometimes it did, but just as often, it hesitated or even dropped. That contradiction forced me to look deeper. I started noticing that Bitcoin doesn’t react to conflict itself—it reacts to liquidity, fear cycles, and how global capital chooses to position itself during uncertainty.

When I zoomed out on the BTC USD chart, the story felt different. Instead of sharp reactions to every geopolitical event, I saw broader trends shaped by macro forces—interest rates, dollar strength, institutional flows. Middle East conflicts seemed to act more like triggers than drivers. They accelerate movements that are already building beneath the surface rather than creating entirely new directions.

I have been watching how Bitcoin behaves compared to traditional safe havens like gold. During certain spikes in tension, Bitcoin briefly mirrors gold’s movement, as if investors are testing it as a hedge. But then something shifts. Volatility creeps in, and Bitcoin returns to behaving like a risk asset. That dual identity is what makes it so hard to predict—and so fascinating to study.

One thing I learned after I spent so much time on research is that the market prices in fear differently now. Years ago, geopolitical conflict might have pushed Bitcoin up purely on speculation. Today, the reaction is more complex. Institutional players, algorithmic trading, and macroeconomic conditions dilute the direct impact of regional conflicts. Bitcoin doesn’t just respond to war headlines—it responds to how those headlines affect global liquidity.

There were nights I kept refreshing the chart, expecting a breakout during major developments in the Middle East. Instead, I saw consolidation. That’s when it clicked for me: sometimes the biggest signal is the lack of reaction. When Bitcoin holds steady during chaos, it may be quietly building strength rather than ignoring the event.

So when I think about Bitcoin price prediction now, I don’t start with conflict anymore. I start with structure. I look at support zones, resistance levels, and liquidity pockets on the BTC USD chart. Middle East tensions still matter, but more as a catalyst than a cause. They can spark volatility, but they don’t define the long-term direction.

I have been watching closely enough to understand that Bitcoin is no longer just a speculative asset reacting to news—it’s evolving into something more layered. The market has matured, and so has the way it processes global events. That doesn’t make predictions easier, but it does make them more grounded.

If there’s one conclusion I’ve reached after all this time and research, it’s that Bitcoin doesn’t move because the world is unstable—it moves based on how money reacts to that instability. And that difference, subtle as it seems, changes everything.

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Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is technically half-way through its Bear Cycle by all known metrics, both in terms of price and time. What we haven't shown you yet (actually we have published this thesis 6-7 years ago and it's since been forgotten) is the underlying Channel Up approach on a Cycle horizon that has gone unnoticed to most.
As you can see, ever since its first complete Bear Cycle in 2011, BTC has been forming Channel Up patterns ending at the bottom of the next Bear Cycle.
- Channel Up 1: 2011 - 2014
- Channel Up 2: 2014 - 2018
- Channel Up 3: 2018 - 2022
- Channel Up 4: 2022 - now
Right now we (obviously) are on the Bear Cycle that will complete Channel 4. It's bottom, based on this model, is projected to be within the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level from the previous Cycle bottom and a potential -70% decline. Which translates to a Bottom range within $45000 - $37500.
That's because Channel Up 1 bottomed above the 0.382 Fib, while the next one (Channel Up 2) bottomed exactly on it. Channel Up 3 broke below the 0.383 Fib and bottomed just above the 0.5 Fib, so similarly the next one (Channel Up 4) should bottom on the 0.5 Fib (at least). The -70% estimate is derived by the -7.00% decreasing rate that each Bear Cycle had compared to the previous one (exception the 2018 Bear Cycle).
Additionally, the $45k Target would be within BTC's 1W MA350 (red trend-line) and 1W MA500 (black trend-line), as since 2018 every Bear Cycle bottom is -150MA lower.
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