The Daily Hodl

Key takeaways:
Bearish Bitcoin futures premiums and low call option odds suggest traders remain skeptical despite BTC’s brief 4% relief rally.
High oil prices and cautious Fed policy continue to pressure risk assets, while Bitcoin derivatives metrics signal a lack of conviction.
Bitcoin surged 4% within minutes of US President Donald Trump announcing his intention to temporarily de-escalate the conflict in Iran and pursue negotiations. While oil prices immediately tumbled 14% to $85 per WTI barrel and the S&P 500 climbed 3%, Bitcoin derivatives metrics continued to signal skepticism and a lack of confidence in the $68,000 support level.
Bitcoin 2-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.ch
Bitcoin futures traded at a 2% annualized premium relative to regular spot markets on Monday, indicating a lack of demand for bullish leverage. Under neutral conditions, this indicator typically ranges between 4% and 8% to compensate for the longer settlement period. This lack of conviction from bulls has been the norm for the past month, even during a recent rally toward $76,000 on Tuesday.
Short-term gains fail to offset five months of Bitcoin pain
Short-term positive updates regarding the US and Israel-Iran war are unlikely to reverse the pessimism following a five-month price decline. Because the specific causes of Bitcoin’s Oct. 10, 2025, flash crash and its subsequent failure to track traditional markets remain unconfirmed, traders treat any developments with high suspicion.
S&P 500 futures (left) vs. Bitcoin/USD (right). Source: TradingView
This major sell-off occurred alongside rising US import tariffs, including a 100% levy on Chinese goods after China restricted rare earth metal exports. However, the unprecedented $19 billion in liquidations caused the most significant damage, resulting in heavy losses for market makers and traders who utilized cross-margin positions.
Bitcoin options for April 24 at Deribit. Source: Deribit by Coinbase
At the Deribit exchange, the $80,000 Bitcoin call option for April 24 traded at 0.017 BTC ($1,207). With 31 days until expiry and an implied volatility of 48%, the market is pricing in only a 20% chance of Bitcoin reaching $80,000. This low expectation for a 13% monthly gain is rare in cryptocurrency markets, where participants are generally more optimistic.
USD stablecoin premium/discount relative to USD/CNY rate. Source: OKX
USD stablecoins traded at a 1.3% premium against the official US dollar to yuan exchange rate on Monday, indicating that there is not a particular imbalance between buying and selling demand in the region. Typically, high demand for cryptocurrency pushes this premium above the 1.5% neutral range, while panic selling causes stablecoins to trade at a discount.
Federal Reserve's choice to pause rate cuts keeps investors in fixed-income
The data shows that there is modest resilience in Bitcoin derivative markets, especially since BTC retested the $67,500 level on Monday. Gold’s historic 21% price drop over ten days proved that no asset class is safe when traders fear an economic recession and inflationary risks, especially as fuel prices impact logistics and nearly every sector of the US economy.
Monday’s 3% relief bounce in the S&P 500 is unlikely to cause investors to exit fixed-income positions, especially as the Fed gave little indication of continuing its monetary easing policy. High interest rates reduce incentives for consumer financing and create a burden for corporate capital costs.
There is undoubtedly a significant dependence on the duration of the war for risk assets, including Bitcoin. Until oil prices revert back to $75 or lower, odds are traders will act cautiously, but additional catalysts may need to emerge for Bitcoin traders to turn bullish, especially considering the persistent lack of conviction in onchain and derivatives metrics