Vink柒

Similar to the last drop, we are now in the 4-hour consolidation of the 11th segment, so this time the high short position can be held for a little longer.

The subsequent trend is generally divided into two categories.

The first is if the daily line pierces back at 1750, then we start a weekly upward movement, and the focus can be on low longs.

The second is if the daily line confirms a break below 1750, then we can wait for a 4-hour rebound to continue the high short position, likely going to 1450, and then build a new consolidation range, which will consolidate here for a few months.

This current range is about to finish consolidating, and we are about to enter a new wave of trends. Those who trade in fluctuations can close positions and wait for the next range; otherwise, they will only face deep losses and liquidation.
#ETH

This time it didn't break again, it's about to start a rebound, which will rebound to the upper edge of the center, and it's highly likely to return to the 2100 position. At this position, observe the 5-minute 2 sell to short.

Like last time, the center still needs to go through the same level of 4h 11 segments of consolidation before breaking down again. Next time, it will break the new low point.

Wait for the next breakdown to produce divergence, afterwards, focus on low buys. It will make a weekly rebound rise, and then make a weekly decline to complete the entire bear market's low point
#ETH

On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of the U.S. military entering Iran before the end of this month is 9%, and the probability before the end of April is 63%

BlockBeats news, on March 29, according to The Washington Post, U.S. officials stated that the Pentagon is preparing for several weeks of ground operations in Iran. As thousands of U.S. soldiers and Marines arrive in the Middle East, if President Trump chooses to escalate the war, this could become a dangerous new phase of conflict. Any potential ground operations would not be a full-scale invasion, but may involve joint raids by special operations forces and conventional infantry units. Such missions could expose U.S. personnel to a range of threats, including Iranian drones and missiles, ground fire, and improvised explosive devices. As of Saturday, it is unclear whether Trump will approve or veto all or part of the Pentagon's plans.

Are they going to hit my spot wallet again? I really can’t take it anymore

#特朗普希望尽快结束对伊朗战争 $ETH

Let's talk about why the price of the contract is anchored to the spot price, and why the fees can bring the contract price closer to the spot price.

Because there has always been hedging and arbitrage in the market, assuming the spot price is 50, and the contract price is only 100, then there must be positive fees at this time. At this point, there will be people who specialize in arbitrage, buying the spot while shorting the contract, and the nominal values are the same.

When the price rises, the profits from the spot hedge the losses from the contract, and vice versa. This way, regardless of how the prices fluctuate, they can consistently earn the fees, and when the spot and contract prices unify, they can close all positions to avoid losses from a reversal of fees.

Thus, the spot price is the anchor point of the entire derivatives market, and ultimately, the derivatives that deviate from the spot will return to the same price as the spot. Of course, the market is not absolute and there can also be black swan events causing a decoupling, as seen last year with the black swan decoupling event.

#BTC #市场柒课 $BTC

Take off directly on the spot 20%, there are still large orders buying in the spot market, what is this for?
$PTB

Which of the three forms A, B, or C of the 4-hour K-line do you prefer to trade?
Share your thoughts

#BTC

$PTB The difference between spot and contract is too large, isn't it? The spot is 0.002 and the contract is only 0.0016. The estimated -2% fees will likely continue for a while.
There are large buy orders in the spot market.

OI is continuously increasing, indicating that both bulls and bears are continuously increasing their positions. CVD is continuously decreasing, suggesting that bears are actively selling at market price, while bulls are passively placing orders to absorb the selling pressure.

Now, below are the two scenarios.

The first scenario is that the aggressive market short position is very strong. Although the bulls' orders at the bottom are absorbing the selling pressure (leading to an increase in OI), the liquidity is insufficient to support the price, and the bullish defense line is continuously breached downwards.
It will keep falling until OI decreases significantly.

The second scenario is that the price is moving sideways or even slightly rising (bullish selling pressure), while the bears are shorting at market price without regard for cost (CVD is sharply decreasing), yet the price refuses to drop. This indicates that there is significant capital passively absorbing all the selling pressure with large iceberg orders or limit buy orders below.
If it continues to not drop for a long time, accompanied by a recovery in CVD,
then the trend will reverse, leading to a short squeeze, as the bears are attacking aggressively with current price selling pressure, but unfortunately, they cannot outmatch the bulls, and all the selling pressure is absorbed. The market will then be dominated by the bulls.

The key is time; it can't stay flat for too long; if it stays flat for too long, it will start to reverse and rise.

#ETH

Come on, the timing is just right, the structure is also suitable, let the new round of plummeting begin,
The quarterly options have been settled, and in the next few days we can reflect on the general direction for the next quarter.

Please drop quickly, the expectation was a rebound from 2040 to 2090, but it only rebounded to 2070, which is a bit uncomfortable.
#ETH

Just right around 2240 began to rebound, remember to continue shorting after the rebound ends #ETH

Tell a joke: If you reverse follow the buddy

The expected return over 30 days is: +5644.9%

The buddy has been liquidated 48.6 BTC and 6,720 ETH in the past half hour, losing 423,000 USD

Then he opened a long position of 1600 ETH at 25x, worth 3.33 million USD, with a liquidation price of $2035.8, leaving only 30 dollars of space before liquidation
#ETH

If I say now that Erbing will drop to 1450 in October, will anyone criticize me?
#ETH

The short position can be closed halfway at this point, leaving half to continue the pattern. If there is a rebound, then add back the currently closed short position. Personally, I feel that when it drops to around 2040, there will be a rebound.

It has been confirmed that it was sent the day before yesterday, and after reaching the second trend, just relax with the short position. It should break down to a new low at the end of the month, a major level new low of 1750.
#ETH

Let's talk about the impact of options used by major institutions on the market.
Taking BTC as an example:

Daily / Weekly Settlement (settlement every Friday):
Regular size: 500 million to 1 billion USD.
Market impact: Minimal. Essentially absorbed naturally by market liquidity, it belongs to the routine position adjustments of market makers and quantitative institutions, requiring no special vigilance.

Monthly Settlement (last Friday of each month):
Regular size: 2 billion to 4 billion USD.
Large standard: When the nominal value exceeds 4 billion USD, it is considered a larger monthly settlement.
Market impact: Moderate to high. 1-2 days before the settlement, the BTC price is highly likely to be “magnetically attracted” to the maximum pain point (Max Pain), leading to a sharp decline in the volatility of perpetual contracts (volatility drop).

Quarterly / Year-end Major Settlement (March, June, September, December):
Regular size: 6 billion to 8 billion USD.
Large standard: When the nominal value exceeds 8 billion USD (even breaking 10 billion USD, equivalent to over 100,000 BTC), this is an “epic settlement” that can trigger the market.
Market impact: Extremely strong. Settlements of this level are usually accompanied by rollovers by whales and Wall Street institutions (such as CME traders). In the settlement week, the perpetual contract market often experiences frequent up and down spikes, and after the settlement is completed, a new unilateral trend is usually established for the next month.

So why do I say that the trend from a timing perspective looks like the end of March and early April? It’s because after the quarterly settlement, institutions will establish new positions, which will generate trends. I am bearish on the overall direction.

To put it simply, volatility will occur tomorrow afternoon, and the last Friday of March will see a unilateral move.
#BTC #市场柒课 $BTC

$SIREN said let's talk about the recent demon coins, the contract value is only 29M now but the market value has reached 1.4B. The whale is not manipulating the market through the contract to unload on the opponent's position. A few days ago, it was still high control, but now it has become low control, just targeting the contract.

The whale originally thought of unloading in the spot market, but unexpectedly, just a light smash caused a waterfall. There was no buying order liquidity to support it, so it could only unload while pulling up, and it won't reach new highs unless it starts building positions in the contract again, and the open interest continues to rise, which might lead to new highs to unload the contract.

At present, it seems to be following the traditional spot unloading route.

$GUA You can pay attention to this coin, it can be traded back and forth in this range, and it is a strong control area. It has risen for a whole month, and the open interest has just started to decline continuously, but it is still at a high level. The market makers have started to gradually close their long positions here and will maintain this area for a long time to distribute, so a fluctuation strategy is sufficient.

A range of 0.29-0.33 with fluctuations of over 10%.

Statistics for the last three months of data show that a 10-day heatmap makes it clear that overall, the fluctuations are greatest on Mondays, with the highest fluctuations occurring daily between 19:00 and 24:00.

Thus, dividing time zone trading ICT strategies has always been useful, especially during consolidation periods, where it often targets areas where retail traders accumulate liquidity in the Asian market. If there's more liquidity there, it will target that liquidity and then reverse.

Just like the post I made yesterday, it will push up to eat the liquidity above, then drop down, because during the day yesterday, the Asian market had already consumed the liquidity below. For the European and American markets to consume the liquidity below, greater momentum is needed, but since the liquidity above has not been consumed, it is highly likely to target the liquidity above.

However, the accumulation of liquidity is not about looking at the price range. Buying and selling can keep the price stable within this range, but in reality, there isn’t much liquidity present. Liquidity should be viewed in multiple dimensions; first, it’s crucial to see if open interest (oi) continues to accumulate, and whether the trading volume is shrinking. Low trading volume indicates retail trading, while explosive volume suggests it is not retail trading. Additionally, one must look at fees and momentum.

The market change should happen on the options expiration day tomorrow or next Monday, and it may draw a door.

#BTC

$PRL All KOLs are promoting this coin, which means there's no need to elaborate. The long positions should be settled; now they are just calling for people to FOMO in and take over. There will be a pump later, but it's all in the final stages, pushing up while unloading

It looks a bit like the second pattern we talked about in the morning. Now we will see if the rebound will exceed the temporary sell position of 2201. Where is 2201? If it doesn't break 2201, this wave of increase can be considered over.

If it breaks 2201, then just stop loss is fine.
#ETH