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A self-introduction for my followers

Hello everyone, I am Fei Ge. I entered the crypto space in 2017, and I can be considered an old hand. Along the way, I have stepped into countless pitfalls, but I have also summarized some of my own methodologies. From blindly following trends at the beginning, I have gradually shifted my focus to studying cycles, macro trends, and capital logic, and I have slowly found my own rhythm.

As I journeyed, I found that the crypto world is not just about ups and downs; it is more like a cyclical game: some people FOMO during the highs, while others quietly position themselves during the lows.

Currently, I am a blogger on Binance Square, sharing some of my personal thoughts and observations. I am not a great expert, just an old hand who has experienced several bull and bear markets. I hope to share the pitfalls I have encountered and the lessons I have learned, so that newcomers can avoid unnecessary detours, and I can also gain new insights through exchange.

If you also believe in cycles, logic, and long-term accumulation, then perhaps we can become companions here.

Regarding the viewpoints in my posts, please note the following points:

1: The crypto market is constantly changing, and so will my viewpoints follow the market. This industry changes too quickly; only by continuously keeping up with the industry's progress can one continue to grow. Sticking rigidly to established norms will only lead to being eliminated by the times, so I hope everyone can be more open-minded.

2: The viewpoints I post on the Square are divided into short-term and long-term. For example, even if I am bullish in the long term, there will be pullbacks in between; similarly, even if I am bearish in the long term, there will also be rebounds in between. Please do not let short-term viewpoints affect long-term perspectives. An upward market does not mean it will rise continuously without looking back; more often, it is a trend of ups and downs. Similarly, a downward market does not mean it will crash without any rebounds; more often, it is a trend of falls and rises overall. I hope everyone can understand the differences between short-term and long-term viewpoints.

3: In this market, apart from BTC, which can be followed blindly, other coins have market cycles, especially altcoins. Before buying a coin, you should at least investigate it; some things need to be understood a bit, and you cannot just buy whatever others say. Especially for those with limited funds, you need to consider the actual situation and be more cautious.

Thank you to every friend who follows and supports me; you are the motivation for my continued sharing. May we all reap our own rewards in the cycles. 🌱

$BTC is currently in a standard macro downtrend.

From a larger perspective, the monthly, bi-weekly, and weekly charts are all showing "lower lows," which is a typical bearish structure; at the same time, the price has consistently remained below the weekly 21EMA and 50SMA, indicating that the medium-term trend has not yet reversed.

In this situation, as long as there is no clear long-term buying signal (such as stabilizing above key moving averages and forming a higher low structure), it is very difficult to discuss a reversal.

In the short term, it now resembles a consolidation within a downtrend, rather than the starting point of a new upward movement.

The probability of continuing to probe lower later this year is still relatively high.

The U.S. Department of Defense is preparing for a ground operation in Iran that will last for several weeks. If the Americans really deploy ground troops to Iran, U.S. stocks, A-shares, and cryptocurrencies are likely to experience another major crash.

Regarding the recent situation in Iran, you can directly look at the trends of gold and crude oil.

Mouths and various national propaganda outlets may deceive, but money and capital do not lie.

If gold falls, it proves that the United States has maintained the dollar's position, and the U.S. maintains a huge advantage on the battlefield.

If gold rises, it proves that the war has become stalemated, the U.S. is bogged down, and the dollar's position is shaken (also considering the impact of the U.S. rate cut cycle on gold).

If crude oil rises, it proves that the Strait of Hormuz is out of control, and the U.S. cannot maintain local navigation safety, or negotiations have temporarily yielded no results.

If crude oil falls, the situation has stabilized or negotiations have reached a phased result.

Congratulations, the yen has finally reached the high of 160. Under the leadership of Takashima Sanae, who has an extremely high approval rating in the polls, Japan has taken another big step towards returning to developing country status.
Next, if the Bank of Japan raises interest rates and Japan increases its military spending, the exchange rate is estimated to reach 170.
The exchange rate is the best reflection of a country's strength and competitiveness. The future of Japan does not need further explanation.

The last time there were 6 consecutive monthly downtrends at the level of $BTC was in 2018, after which the bear market bottomed out. If the BTC monthly line closes down in March, it will be another 6 consecutive monthly downtrends. Do you think this round of the bear market has bottomed out???

$BCH During this period, the main strategy should be to buy on dips. As long as $BTC does not fall below 60,000, the medium-term rebound trend of BCH will not change. Previously, BCH dropped from 560 to 432, experiencing the first wave of trend decline. After reaching the weekly support level, a significant rebound occurred. This support remains effective in the short term, so in the future, buying mainstream coins can prioritize BCH, which is relatively stable and has decent liquidity. $TRX has been maintaining a monthly level consolidation, with long and short positions currently being about 50/50. Personally, I lean more towards shorting, which might get caught in the short term, but in the long term, it could lead to a wave of trend decline.

$CHZ has started, there are about two months left until the World Cup, generally, good news is often hyped in advance. CHZ, as the leading fan token, only moves when it does; other fan tokens will follow, such as $SANTOS and $OG . My opinion on fan tokens remains unchanged; there was a surge in January and February, then in March it fell back to where the previous market started, followed by a sideways consolidation that washed away the weak hands. Waiting for the market to start moving again near the World Cup time node, currently, CHZ is performing the most standard, rising from around 0.03 to 0.064, then falling back to 0.03, and now starting to rise again, basically following the script. However, SANTOS has been too aggressive in its washout, breaking down at the daily level; after all, with a small market cap, when many people enter, it can't lift off, so it can only drop.

Of course, position management is still essential; the liquidity and market cap of fan tokens are very small, so just participate with a light position. If you want to go heavy or go all-in, you are likely to lose money.

Why do I think there won't be a comprehensive altcoin season in the next bull market???

Currently, on Binance Alpha, you can directly buy and sell US stocks, Binance Futures allows trading of mainstream US stock futures and commodity contracts, and the Binance spot secondary market enables direct trading of gold. It's not just Binance; other exchanges like OKX and Coinbase are also actively transforming to embrace traditional finance and commodities, marking the first step in this transformation.

As the leader in this industry ecosystem, every move of the exchange represents the future direction of the industry. Coupled with Binance's recent aggressive delisting of altcoins, it is reasonable to predict that the vast majority of altcoins will eventually go to zero. Every time I say this, people criticize me, claiming that without an altcoin season, the space lacks attraction. However, it is important to note that I am saying there won't be a comprehensive altcoin season, but there will still be certain valuable coins like $HYPE and $TAO , as well as blue-chip coins like $XRP and DOGE, which have stood the test of time and will ultimately yield returns of 5 times or even more. Therefore, in the next bull market, 90% of altcoins are not worth buying. However, there will still be 10% of altcoins that can create a significant wealth effect. The key is how you choose.

The essence of the cryptocurrency space is that it cannot keep users for too long. The stock market can retain a shareholder for a lifetime, but the crypto space cannot retain a crypto holder for a lifetime. Either the crypto holder is cut off or they choose to leave.

Governments of various countries hold $BTC ranking
United States 🇺🇸 first, China 🇨🇳 second

The recently posted message said there was no fluctuation in the market today, but unexpectedly, there was a fluctuation in the evening, and I suddenly made a profit. I shorted when most people were too afraid to do so, and I went long when most people were too afraid to do that. Another day to test execution ability. Congratulations to those who followed the operations; today was another profitable day✌️$BTC $ETH $SOL

Today the market has not seen much fluctuation. The orders in the community are still based on last night's strategy, going long in the 65500–66000 range. This morning, I specifically reminded everyone in the community chat group and placed the risk control at our cost level of 65800. The reason is simple: the general direction is definitely down, but when it falls to a key support level, it should still rebound.

From a technical perspective, 66000 can be said to be the boundary point for long and short positions in the second wave of trend decline and rebound. I mentioned in a previous live broadcast that when looking at support and resistance levels, do not just look at whole numbers; sometimes the market may experience false breakouts or false breakdowns, so the strategy in the muted group is to place risk control at 65500. Yesterday, the market dipped down to 65500 and then quickly rebounded, which was very precise. From a news perspective, currently, the oil tankers from Thailand and India can pass through the Strait of Hormuz, indicating that the situation is developing positively. In summary, ensure good risk control and follow the market and our community's strategy.

$LDO The project party has started to buy back its own tokens

Recently, Lido proposed a plan to use up to 10,000 stETH to buy back LDO. They believe that the current LDO/ETH exchange rate is at a historical low, roughly 60% of the median level over the past two years, which is clearly somewhat disconnected from the fundamentals.

The execution involves buying back in batches, with a maximum of 1,000 stETH each time, using channels like CoW Swap, 1inch, and Uniswap, with slippage controlled within 3%. The LDO bought back will not be destroyed, but returned to the treasury, waiting for the next bull market to sell.

Currently, this proposal has not been finally approved, but the signal is already very clear; Lido believes that the current LDO is undervalued and can be bought in batches.

$BTC The monthly line has already had 5 consecutive declines. This month, it would be best if it could rebound to above 67000. Even if the monthly line closes with a doji star candlestick, that would be good. Otherwise, BTC will have 6 consecutive declines on the monthly line. Currently, the RSI of the monthly line for BTC is extremely oversold, which has never been this low in history; only altcoins drop like this. I'm a bit scared if it keeps dropping like this 😅😅😅

Personal investment position management in the cryptocurrency market for the next 5 years
Core 50% in BTC and ETH, stable and risk-averse. 30% allocated to leading ecosystems like SOL and BNB. 10% in small positions to speculate on quality new coins. 10% in contracts, with cryptocurrency investments accounting for ≤50% of personal total assets. Regular investment in batches, periodic rebalancing, avoiding scam coins, closely following compliance and RWA tracks as well as AI tracks, long-term holding, and strict control of drawdowns.

After the community's short strategy the day before yesterday, the strategy given last night $BTC suggested going long in the range of 65500～66000, and the longs profited! The strategy indicated key support at 65500, and it was particularly emphasized in the community that this level must not be broken; once it breaks, the bulls will completely collapse. Last night, the market quickly rebounded after dipping near 65500, and according to our strategy points and risk management points, it was completely fine. It's important to understand where to go short and where to go long, and not to be swayed by market sentiment. Who says technical analysis is useless? If you think it is useless, then it means your skills are lacking.

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$BNB In this round of the bear market, what price can we set for regular investments in batches?

First, looking at the historical trends, in the first phase of this bull market, BNB hovered around 600 for a whole year in 2024. The market makers continued to accumulate at this position, and even when BTC experienced a significant correction in 2024, BNB remained strong around 600, indicating that the chips in this range had been fully digested, and large funds had basically completed their turnover in this range. Therefore, structurally, this is very likely to become an important support area in the future.

Then, looking at the accumulation range during the bear market, the most critical position is the 200-300 range. Even during the 2022 bear market, despite the market facing a series of major adverse events such as the LUNA crash and the FTX collapse, BNB still maintained around 300 until Binance was sued by the SEC, leading to panic selling. BNB fell to a low of 202, but within a month rebounded back to around 300, and then consolidated at this position for 3 months. As the market turned bullish later, it started to rise steadily.

So we can conclude that BNB has two important accumulation points: one around 300 and the other around 600.

From a technical perspective, the rough bottom of this bear market can be seen around 400. BNB itself, as an exchange platform coin, has relatively less volatility and will not experience the extreme ups and downs like some altcoins.

So the strategy is also very clear: if the price can return below 500, and the bottom structure has formed, then it falls into the range where regular investments can begin.

The once leading AI track $WLD has dropped more fiercely than MEME coins, will the current AI leader $TAO repeat the same mistakes?

WLD is the absolute leader in the AI track in 2024, rising from 0.97 to 11.9, with a tenfold increase that has completely ignited market sentiment, with countless retail investors buying at high positions, many purchasing above 10 dollars. WLD was not an air coin at that time, as it had offline scleral data collection in first-tier cities around the world, funded impoverished children in the third world, and had the endorsement of the OpenAI founder. At that time, it could be said to be the top narrative among altcoins, but the final outcome was still a 99% drop from the highs.

TAO's current narrative is that it is the leader in the AI track, with the founder of Nvidia optimistic about it, sub-network speculation, and a total of 21 million tokens, making it the most decentralized AI. As it stands, TAO is indeed the most valuable among all AI cryptocurrency projects in the coin circle, and when TAO's price was below 200, I published several posts optimistic about TAO. However, at that time, the vast majority believed it was a worthless air coin. Now that the price has risen, people again consider it a valuable coin. But my current view is very clear: if you had bought earlier, just hold on. If you haven't bought, it's best to wait and see. This year has been a bear market; even if you are optimistic about TAO, there will still be opportunities to enter at lower prices in the second half of the year. Just be patient, and when the second half of the year arrives, and it's time and price to invest in TAO, I will inform you.