Crypto_心诚

This week (3.30-4.5) major events in Web3:

March 30

G7 finance ministers, energy ministers, and central bank governors held a meeting to discuss the release of strategic oil reserves;

EthCC 9 will be held from March 30 to April 2 in Cannes;

Polymarket expands its fee range: starting March 30, transaction fees will be charged on more markets;

Based Foundation: plans to conduct TGE on March 30;

March 31

FTX liquidation trust fund plans to start a new round of payout distribution on March 31;

edgeX will conduct TGE and list on March 31;

April 2

The United States will announce new unemployment claims data on April 2;

April 3

The United States will announce March non-farm payroll data on April 3;

Others (specific time to be determined)

The U.S. congressional office plans to release a draft of stablecoin yield terms next week, and the industry is preparing a counter-proposal

#比特币ETF价格战 $BTC

Trump is about to crash again

This batch of tokens dates back to 2 months ago, deposited into BitGo from the TRUMP Team Allocation address (team share/allocation wallet), with a total of 18.14 million tokens deposited at that time, worth about 81.64 million USD

Similar operations have repeatedly occurred over the past few months:
The team wallet often first transfers a large amount $TRUMP to custodians like Fireblocks/BitGo, and then gradually deposits into CEX exchanges

$TRUMP , as a political meme coin, had a huge holding by the early team and founder's wallet. They use custodians like BitGo/Fireblocks for safety + convenience in bulk selling/liquidity management, rather than being locked in cold wallets

This type of political meme highly relies on external events (Trump dynamics, policies, etc.), and team reduction is the norm; don’t put all your hopes on the team not selling tokens

$TRUMP
#TRUMP

Tomorrow is Monday, and the fear index in the cryptocurrency market has reached 9, with the lowest this year being 5, both indicating extreme fear. So what should we pay attention to after the opening on Monday:

First, focus on liquidity during the Asian session; before the data comes out, it may continue to fluctuate within a narrow range. Position control is very important, especially for leverage—it's easy to get stopped out in a low-volatility environment due to sudden events.

Second, currently, geopolitical tensions (related to the Middle East) and yield pressure are still present, and the market is waiting for this data to provide a clear direction.

Third, there may be discussions about technical upgrades at the Ethereum community conference from March 30 to April 2.

Finally, the news in the cryptocurrency market is relatively calm over the weekend, and there are often fluctuations after the "weekend effect" on Monday.

Technical Analysis:
BTC needs to hold the $65k support (near the 200-day moving average); if it breaks, it may further test around $60k; resistance is $69.5k-$72k above.

ETH is relatively resilient to declines, benefiting from staking/ETF inflows, but overall still needs to pay attention to macro data. Institutional ETF inflows are still providing some buffer, but retail sentiment is relatively cautious.

$BTC $

Several major crashes in the history of the US stock market:

Panic of 1907 -48% Recovered in 10 years
Great Depression of 1929 -89% Recovered in 25 years
Oil Crisis of 1973 -45% Recovered in 9 years
Black Monday of 1987 -36% Recovered in 2 years
Dot-com Bubble of 2000 -78% Recovered in 13 years
Financial Crisis of 2008 -57% Recovered in 5.5 years
COVID Flash Crash of 2020 -34% Recovered in 6 months
Rate Hike Shock of 2022 -27% Recovered in 18 months
Tariff Storm of 2025 -23% Recovered in 1.5 months

Will there be a crash in 2026? We will wait and see

#纳斯达克 $BTC

BTC Weekend Market Analysis

Yesterday at 69K, I reminded everyone that it would drop, and it indeed fell to the support level around 65K as expected. The weekend market will mainly be dominated by fluctuations, with the fluctuation range between 65.5K and 67.6K.

At this position on the daily chart, even if it drops further, it will form a divergence in volume and price. Therefore, any drop from this position is an opportunity for gradual investments.

There will be a rebound at a smaller level, but it will be weak. If it does not break 67.6K, it will still have a second test.

$BTC

Is there still hope for BP?

BP is a typical case of post-TGE full community sell-off—airdrop participants dumping, and those chasing FOMO getting trapped, leading to polarized community sentiment. Platform data also shows a slight outflow of user funds and a decline in trading volume, but the staking rate is on the rise, indicating that some are choosing to hold long-term.

Fortunately, BP is not just a pure speculative meme; it has real business, regulatory backing, and a long-term narrative, namely IPO + equity, positioning itself as the primary launch/trading hub for Solana projects.

So, is BP still worth investing in?
Advantages of the current price:
① FDV has dropped to a relatively low level.
② No significant selling pressure from teams/VCs, with staking mechanisms locking up tokens.
③ Clear long-term catalysts: European license implementation, Solana traffic monetization, IPO narrative + equity conversion.

Disadvantages:
① Short-term volatility is extremely high; it may continue to shake out investors.
② CEX tokens generally experience the "launch equals peak" curse, with strong emotional selling pressure on new listings.
③ Regulatory uncertainties, including whether the equity mechanism is considered securities by the SEC? Overall market environment is poor.
④ Platform funds and trading volume have declined in the short term, indicating that not everyone is optimistic.

Personal opinion:

If you are a long-term believer in the Solana ecosystem + compliant CEX story and can accept 30-50% volatility, now is a reasonable time to accumulate in batches at this low point.

If you are a short-term trader, I suggest waiting for more stable sentiment before building a position.

#backpack

BTC Market Analysis

Yesterday, I told everyone that if it doesn't break 71600, it will drop, and it indeed dropped as expected.

Currently, the daily level is hovering near the zero axis and has formed a dead cross, which means there is a possibility of acceleration at this position at any time.

On the 4-hour chart, it has already broken below the zero axis, and the focus is on whether 67600 can hold (it's unlikely to hold). If it doesn't hold, it will move towards 65000-62000.
Resistance: 69300-71000

$BTC

The Web3 primary market in 2026 has indeed completely bid farewell to the era of 'blind investment with closed eyes and wildly consuming narrative dividends.' We are now entering the 'second half': shifting from purely narrative-driven approaches to substantial delivery, compliant delivery, liquidity efficiency, and real value creation. Institutional funds, the mainstreaming of stablecoins/RWAs, and the integration of AI with privacy technologies are making investment decisions more like a hybrid of traditional VC and financial due diligence—relying on data, execution capability, and sustainability to speak, rather than white papers and PPTs.

In summary: High-quality projects = Strong execution team + Verified PMF + Sustainable Tokenomics + Compliant foundation + Real on-chain data. The era of narrative has ended, and the era of delivery has begun.

$BTC

#kat $KAT Just launched the KRW trading pair, directly surged over 70%. What kind of project is this?

👿 Don't chase, don't chase, don't chase

KAT is a project focused on DeFi on the Ethereum Layer 2, incubated by Polygon Labs, aiming to solve the issue of DeFi liquidity fragmentation.

Unlike general L2s, it is an 'opinion-based' chain that concentrates liquidity on a few core DeFi protocols (such as SushiSwap spot, Morpho lending, and recently launched the native perpetual contract platform Katana Perps through the acquisition of IDEX). This avoids capital dispersion, increases depth, reduces slippage, and forms a 'Real Yield' flywheel: protocol fees + VaultBridge cross-chain yields → backflow to the ecosystem → incentivizing users and stakers.

KAT has a fixed total supply of 10 billion tokens, no VC pre-sale, no insider preferential unlocks (community-friendly). Holders can lock KAT to receive vKAT, gaining governance rights (voting on which liquidity pools receive incentives), protocol fee sharing, and yields. Gas fees are still paid in ETH, while KAT is mainly used for incentive coordination.

In simple terms, it aims to make DeFi a 'sustainable flywheel' instead of relying on inflationary mining, emphasizing long-term holding and governance participation.

As soon as the South Korean CEX goes live, liquidity explodes instantly, retail investors flock in, and short-term pump is evident. Korean capital comes quickly but leaves just as fast. The project values long-term TVL growth and the actual effects of vKAT governance.

$KAT

BTC is consolidating, what makes TAO able to double?

The AI track is on fire🔥, many OGs or miners in the crypto space are turning to AI. Although the AI track in the crypto world is not particularly outstanding, it should not be overlooked. Over the past month, the leading figure in the crypto AI track $TAO has achieved a doubling trend.

TAO is positioned as a decentralized machine learning infrastructure platform in the AI crypto track. It is not merely a provider of computing power, nor is it focused solely on autonomous agents, and it is not a single AI service market. Instead, it has built an incentive-driven distributed neural network, allowing global participants to produce, share, and optimize AI models through competition and collaboration.

The main fundamentals are strong in real incentive mechanisms + subnet scalability + actual AI output, rather than pure conceptual speculation.

This surge benefits from several aspects:
① Bittensor announced the launch of a 72B parameter AI model (Covenant-72B) on the network, which directly proves its practical implementation capability of decentralized AI infrastructure.
② Grayscale's TAO trust product has obtained SEC reporting qualification, which is seen as an important regulatory compliance signal, providing a clearer path for institutional investors to enter the market and strengthening the long-term narrative of "compliant AI assets."
③ NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang's indirect support.

The combination of project-specific catalysts + AI narrative revival + supply tightening has formed a strong positive feedback loop, leading to TAO's strong performance independent of Bitcoin.

In the long term, global AI spending is expected to continue to explode, and decentralized AI can address the pain points of centralized giants' monopolies (data, computing power, models): more open, more resistant to censorship, and lower thresholds.

Therefore, it is believed that investors at the intersection of AI and blockchain can conduct regular investments in batches.
The strong support below still lies in the range of 150-220.

$TAO
#AI

Today's Major Events - March 26

1. Number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week (20:30), a high-frequency indicator of the labor market;

The expected range is roughly between 207K and 215K. If the actual data:
① Significantly lower than expected (e.g. <205K): Strong employment signal → U.S. Treasury yields may rise, the dollar strengthens, and interest rate cut expectations decrease, leading to a short-term bearish outlook for risk assets (stock market, crypto).
② In line with or slightly above expectations (210K-215K): Neutral, the market may not react violently, continue to monitor the Federal Reserve's path.
③ Significantly higher than expected (>220K): Employment slowdown signal → Increased expectations for rate cuts, a weaker dollar, declining U.S. Treasury yields, typically a short-term positive for risk assets like cryptocurrencies (the “bad news is good news” logic).

2. Speeches from multiple Fed officials (Jefferson, Barr, etc.), to validate recent policy paths and responses to inflation;

3. G7 Foreign Ministers' Meeting (26-27), focusing on statements regarding the Middle East/Hormuz Strait/energy supply.

$BTC

ONDO cannot be said to be the leader of RWA, but it can definitely be said to be the Top 1 in tokenized products. This round of bear market has shown us that exchanges are deploying tokenized traditional finance, and the tokenized stocks listed on exchanges are basically issued through Ondo.

This time, collaborating with the world's largest asset management company, Franklin Templeton with a scale of 17 trillion is not a casual partnership; it essentially gives Ondo an 'institutional-level endorsement', which will greatly enhance market confidence, attract more partners, and inflow of funds. This is the first time a TradFi giant has moved its ETF 'on-chain' on a large scale, directly validating Ondo's technology and compliance capabilities, enabling a 24/7 trading + wallet direct access model, perfectly addressing the pain points of traditional finance, and in the long run, can reshape the asset management industry.

I bought into ONDO when it was just listed at $0.2, and cleared my position at $2. Now the price is back around $0.2, and I feel I can re-enter in batches because it meets my investment criteria.

As long as the RWA narrative continues to heat up, Ondo is expected to continue expanding its TVL market share, and the value of the ONDO token as a governance tool will also increase with the expansion of the ecosystem. Combined with infrastructure like Ondo Chain, ONDO is expected to become an 'infrastructure-level' project in RWA, similar to 'Uniswap' or 'MakerDAO' in the RWA field.

#ONDO $ONDO

BTC Market Analysis
This week is coming to an end, followed by the weekend market. After experiencing a strong bullish candle rebound this week, it has not continued the bullish trend. Currently, at this position on the daily chart, it seems to be rebounding upwards, but the strength of the rebound is still limited. It is important to note whether it can stabilize at 71600 on the 4-hour chart. In the short term, it will fluctuate around 69400~71600. If it does not break 69400, it will form a head and shoulders bottom on the 4-hour chart and then reach near 74600. However, if it continues not to break 71600 and falls below 69000, it will still move downwards.
So in the short term, pay attention to whether it will break upwards or fall downwards. From the 1-hour perspective, it has reached 71600 four times without breaking up, and the indicator is showing a state of divergence at the peak, so it is still necessary to pay attention to the risk at the 1-hour level.
Support: 69400-67700
Resistance: 71600-72700

$BTC

ETH is about to take off 🛫

Ethereum is about to bounce back above the zero axis on the 4-hour level and the 12-hour zero axis rebound

The daily level has been hovering around the bullish area, with the bottom gradually rising. All levels are near the zero axis and are about to trigger a bullish momentum, but the upward rebound strength is limited. The next key point to watch is whether the position at 2350 can be broken. If it breaks, it will move around 2700.

In summary, the next key point to watch is the 4-hour level at 2170. As long as it doesn't break, it will gradually move upwards.
Resistance: 2300-2350
Support: 2170-2115

$ETH

#BTC
The daily level bottom is gradually rising, and it is now hovering near the zero axis. In terms of directional choice, attention should be paid to the activation of the 4-hour level market. Currently, the 4-hour level is running above the zero axis. The next focus is whether the 1-hour market can stabilize at the position of 71600. If it stabilizes, it will continue to rise. The idea given to everyone yesterday was that as long as it does not break 69500, a rebound would be expected. Yesterday, it just happened to touch this position and performed a rebound.
Next, for the rebound, attention should be paid to the range of 74500~80000.
Summary: Pay attention to the 4-hour level rebound.

#币安人生 $BTC $

BTC
Yesterday quickly rebounded by 6%, but it did not change the overall trend
From the daily chart, this position has repeatedly tried to build a bottom, but has not changed its downward trend. It is important to pay attention to the fast and slow lines at this position; they must not break below the zero axis and must form a golden cross near the zero axis for the market to continue. From the current perspective, the rebound strength will not be very strong; even if there is good news, a rebound to 80K would be the ceiling.
The 1H price has made a second pullback, not breaking 71600, forming a divergence. Therefore, attention should be paid to the pullback risks brought by the one-hour level, with support to watch below at 68500-67500

#BTC $BTC

📈 As a cryptocurrency investor, how should you maintain your mindset in the current stage and market while facing and waiting?

In the current market of March 2026, BTC hovers around $70,000, with a total market capitalization of approximately $2.4 trillion, down more than 40% from the peak in 2025. The most important thing is to maintain a clear, patient, and long-term mindset. This is not a 'crash,' but rather a typical correction/bottoming phase after a bull market — macro pressures (geopolitical tensions, uncertainty in Federal Reserve policy, deleveraging) bring short-term volatility, but institutional ETFs continue to accumulate, companies are hoarding coins (such as Michael Saylor continually increasing his position), and historical bottom signals (MVRV negative values, low developer activity) all suggest: this is an accumulation window, not the apocalypse.

1. Stay calm and HODL, don’t panic sell (core mindset: hibernation mode). BTC has always bottomed out in periods of 'extreme fear' throughout all past cycles. Your task is to accept volatility, minimize screen time, and review fundamentals only once a week. Life goes on; crypto is just a part of the assets.

2. DCA + strategic accumulation (execution mindset: discipline + opportunism). Keep cash reserves at 20-30%, and be prepared for low buys after a 'black swan' event. Don’t chase high leverage, don’t FOMO into altcoin season, prioritize acquiring core assets in the market.

3. Strict risk discipline (baseline mindset: survival first) Only invest money that you can 'sleep well at night' with, and no single position should exceed 5-10% of total assets.

4. Focus on learning and fundamentals (growth mindset: from trader to investor). Spend less time trading, and read more on-chain data (Glassnode, CryptoQuant), regulatory dynamics, and macro (Federal Reserve shifts, Trump policy expectations).

5. Psychological balance + long-term belief (ultimate mindset: optimistic realism). This cycle is different from the past — there are ETFs for protection, and deep institutional participation, making this bear market the 'weakest version.' There may still be a few months of grinding, but the bullish logic for the medium to long term (second half of 2026 to 2027) remains unchanged: Bitcoin's scarcity + accelerated global adoption.

Summary: The current mindset is to patiently wait + firmly execute. Don’t rush to 'all in on rebounds,' nor despair and exit. Treat this period as the 'crypto hibernation season,' protect your principal, lower costs, and enhance your understanding.
Mindset: Short-term look at risks, long-term look at opportunities.

$BTC

#亚洲股市重挫
This wave of decline is essentially a rapid reassessment of geopolitical risk premium, rather than a sudden collapse of fundamentals. Trump's ultimatum has not yet evolved into actual military strikes (he later announced a 5-day suspension of attacks on Iranian power plants, leaving room for negotiations), so the market panic has an element of 'overselling'.
Short term: If there is no further escalation (such as actual bombing of power plants or real sealing of the strait) within 48 hours (or a few days later), oil prices may fluctuate at high levels or even correct, and the stock market may have a technical rebound opportunity. However, as long as Iran does not back down and the U.S. does not relent, volatility will remain high, and any new information could trigger another round of sell-offs.
Medium term: Asia, as a global manufacturing and energy import center, bears the greatest actual economic cost. If the Strait crisis lasts for several weeks, and oil prices stabilize above $100, inflation and supply chain disruptions will drag down corporate profit expectations, and the stock market may enter a longer adjustment period. Technology/export stocks in South Korea and Japan are the most vulnerable.
From an opportunity perspective: Energy stocks (oil and gas, coal substitutes), defensive sectors (utilities, consumer staples) may be relatively resistant to declines; safe-haven assets like gold and the U.S. dollar continue to be strong.
Overall, this is not the 'end of the world', but a typical panic market triggered by a geopolitical black swan.

$BTC

#CZ称比特币是硬资产
Every time the market is particularly sluggish, CZ always comes out to ease market sentiment, indeed contributing to the industry.

However, when BTC was at 120,000, it was also CZ who called that a super cycle was about to arrive 😂

$BTC

Every round of bear market trading strategies is similar, with news combined with technical analysis to drive prices down, letting retail investors hand over their chips.
The bear market washout generally has 5 stages: (Currently, we should be in the 3rd stage)

First Stage: Top Distribution and Structural Collapse
At the end of a bull market, major funds quietly distribute during times of ample liquidity. A certain symbolic event (such as regulatory crackdowns, major project collapses, or exchange issues) becomes the last straw that breaks the camel's back, causing the market to plummet from a high volume, forming a 'guillotine'. At this time, most people still think it's just a pullback and choose to buy the dip.

Second Stage: First Rebound and Despair Slope
After the first wave of plummeting, the market will experience a sharp rebound, regaining popularity. However, this is often a 'bull trap', as the rebound fails to break previous highs and subsequently enters a slow, continuous decline. This stage is the most demoralizing, as each rebound marks the beginning of a new low.

Third Stage: Liquidity Exhaustion and Deleveraging
As prices fall below miners' cost and the liquidation line of DeFi protocols, a series of liquidations begin. A large number of highly leveraged long positions are forcibly closed, causing a momentary spike in prices (especially in Bitcoin). At this time, the market enters a 'death spiral': price falls → liquidation → further decline. Projects, mining farms, and market makers begin to experience breaks in their capital chains.

Fourth Stage: Panic Selling (Surrender Stage)
Symbolic events: Industry giants collapse (such as FTX, Three Arrows Capital), panic from USDT decoupling, and a wave of miners shutting down. At this time, the media announces everywhere that 'cryptocurrency is dead', with trading volumes swelling amidst extreme pessimism. This is the true bottom range, but often accompanied by the final 'trap' deep squat.

Fifth Stage: Bottom Formation and Washout
The bottom will not be achieved overnight. It usually experiences 3-6 months or even longer of sideways fluctuation, testing previous lows multiple times without breaking them. The major players use a 'sideways market + false breakout + retest' method to let early dip buyers lose patience and hand over their chips, completing the bottom formation.

So a truly significant black swan event has not yet occurred, corresponding to the fourth stage, which is when the true low-priced chips are about to form.

#CZ称比特币是硬资产 $BTC $ETH