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Risk management is a word that everyone who does trading, often hangs on the lips, but most people tend to just talk about risk management; Unable to actually establish the awareness of risk management, relying too much on intuitive trading, so that it is impossible to achieve long-term use of fixed trading strategies to achieve profit purposes.
Today I will share with you a systematic risk control concept. I hope it will be of some help to your futures trading in the future. Remember to forward and like it~ What should you pay attention to when trading futures?
First of all, the biggest advantage of futures trading is that small funds can be used as margin guarantee transactions, which can control risks more flexibly than spot prices; similarly, the biggest disadvantages of futures trading are the same as the advantages. While using leverage to amplify profits, you need to The risks taken will also be magnified in proportion;
Investors with poor trading experience often use leverage incorrectly (mainly referring to excessive magnification), coupled with psychological instability, they are prone to the following serious situations:
1. Wrong risk managementImproper use of leverage, or operations with a low winning rate or low profit-loss ratio;Many novices tend to ignore the advantages of using leverage, blindly use too high leverage, or too high number of contracts, focusing on the immediate potential profits and ignoring the potential risks brought by leveraged trading, which invisibly magnifies the risks, resulting in Positions are overexposed to risk and liquidated;
2. Immature mentalityLosing money or missing out on the market leads to greed, regret, fear and other negative psychological effects that affect judgment, making it impossible to operate according to the strategy;
3. Gambler’s psychologyAfter losing money in the market, you want to make back the loss through a larger margin. If you make a profit, you want to continue making profits with a larger position; There may also be another situation where the trend reversal is close to the stop loss, but because the position on the market is at a floating loss, you choose to continue to hold the position, going against the trend, resulting in amplified losses, or even liquidation; or when the price has reached a floating profit, The strategy has a profit-taking target, but due to greed, one chooses to continue holding the position, causing the original profit to be taken back or even turn into a loss; In the trading market, retail investors often make too many mistakes and get lost in technical analysis. They pursue the perfect strategy with a 100% winning rate and ignore the implementation of the general principle of stop-profit and stop-loss.
What is risk? Risk is the uncertainty of future investment returns in the trading market. Loss of income, or loss of principal, can be included in investment risk. The characteristics of risk include objective probability, meaning that the risk can be taken to prevent the occurrence, or reduce the loss caused by the occurrence of a risky event, but it is impossible to completely eliminate the risk, because to do so means that we will also eliminate the future gain. This also shows that risk management in the trading market is very necessary and very important.
What is risk management? Risk management and control means taking effective measures to reduce the probability of occurrence of risk events, or effectively reduce the loss caused by risk events after the occurrence of risk events, and control the loss to an acceptable degree. Traders with less trading experience tend to focus too much on technical analysis and trading strategies, and place too much trust in strategic indicators. These traders often inadvertently ignore the probability of the occurrence of risk events, the entire principal as a margin to make a one-time bet trading, such traders, the final result is only death.
Importance of profit-loss ratio
A profit-loss ratio that is too low will result in more losses and less profit.Assuming that our risk management strategy is to set the profit-loss ratio of each transaction to 1:1, we must at least maintain the winning rate of the transaction above 50% to ensure stable profits for the position;If the profit and loss ratio is set to 1:1, for any transaction we should ensure that the profit and loss ratio is greater than or equal to 1:1 before entering the market. Otherwise, even if the winning rate is high, the effective profit and loss ratio cannot be achieved. It may also cause a large profit retracement or even loss after a loss occurs.
A higher profit-loss ratio in the trading strategy can effectively make up for the problem of lower than 50% winning rate in trading;
for example: In an account with 10,000 USDT, each transaction uses 1% of the position as the cost (100 USDT), and the profit and loss ratio is controlled at 1:3. In 10 transactions, there will be an average of 4 take-profits and the remaining 6 losses. purely looking at the winning rate, the trading winning rate is only 40%. Such a result is definitely unsatisfactory.
However, based on the profit-loss ratio combined with the winning rate, the average overall profit for 10 transactions falls within:(100USDT (1% cost)*3 (profit-loss ratio)*4 profits) — (100USDT (1% cost)*1*6 losses)=1200USDT-600USDT=600USDT
We can see that with a trading strategy that controls the profit and loss ratio at 1:3 each time and uses 1% of the total position as a cost, although the winning rate is only 40%, we can also get a 6% return in every 10 transactions. The most important thing is that even if a loss occurs, only 1% of the positions bear the risk of loss.
This is also why we pursue a high profit-loss ratio. Only a high profit-loss ratio + a high winning rate can achieve effective compound interest.
Summarize
In the trading market, risk management accounts for at least 80% of the importance, and the remaining 20% is the trading system and strategy. Avoid blindly pursuing technical analysis and indicators, strictly implement basic skills and risk control, and avoid gambling operations such as heavy positions and full positions. The long-term stability of position funds is the correct trading direction.
The futures market is highly volatile. It is recommended that investors strictly implement risk management. Only by surviving in the trading market can we have the opportunity to achieve more trading goals.
🎯TP1✔️ 🔒Lock in 70% profits💰 ➡️SL moves to breakeven⚖️
Wolf_king88
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📊Will #BTC continue to fall?
From a structural perspective, we are still in a downward - trend, and the downward risk has not been lifted.
Currently, we are hindered by the neck - line and also by the lower edge of the ascending wedge. Be wary of the risk of continuous decline.
If we want to reverse the downward trend, we need to construct a bull structure of the same cycle near 65,000 (as shown in the black dashed trajectory in the diagram).
The short - term support is near 65,600, and a good support is near 64,000.
If there is no further decline, the resistance level worthy of our attention is near 68,000.
🤜If you like my analysis, please like💖 and share💬 #Wolf_king88 $BTC {future}(BTCUSDT)
From a structural perspective, we are still in a downward - trend, and the downward risk has not been lifted.
Currently, we are hindered by the neck - line and also by the lower edge of the ascending wedge. Be wary of the risk of continuous decline.
If we want to reverse the downward trend, we need to construct a bull structure of the same cycle near 65,000 (as shown in the black dashed trajectory in the diagram).
The short - term support is near 65,600, and a good support is near 64,000.
If there is no further decline, the resistance level worthy of our attention is near 68,000.
🤜If you like my analysis, please like💖 and share💬 #Wolf_king88 $BTC
Wolf_king88
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[Replay] 🎙️ Will BTC continue to fall? Where should it rebound to before shorting?
🧠From a structural perspective, an M - head has appeared here. And the daily candlestick closed with a large negative line, which is a very pessimistic chart pattern.
➡️ Therefore, the downside risk has not yet been eliminated. However, we are currently in an overlapping support zone. If we want to enter new short positions, we need to wait for the price to rebound to the resistance level before looking for shorting signals.
The nearby resistance level is around 70,000, and the next one lies in the S/R zone of 71,700.
➡️From a model perspective, we are still moving within the ascending wedge. If we fall further, I think the lower edge of the ascending wedge will hardly hold this decline.
Instead, the support zone between $65,000 and $66,000 is more worthy of our attention.
🤜If you like my analysis, please like💖 and share💬 #Wolf_king88 $BTC
Will it successfully reach the next support zone? #Wolf_king88 $ETH
Wolf_king88
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Bearish
📊#ETH Retests Resistance Zone ✔️
🧠From a structural perspective, we've retested the resistance zone around 2200. Multiple touches of this resistance have resulted in pullbacks, indicating its strong resistance. Only a strong breakout and consolidation above this zone will allow us to be bullish! The next resistance level is around 2300, with extreme resistance around 2377.
➡️Short-term support is around 2075, with a good support zone between 1908 and 1955.
Let's see 👀
🤜If you like my analysis, please like 💖 and share 💬 #Wolf_king88 $ETH {future}(ETHUSDT)
🧠From a structural perspective, we've retested the resistance zone around 2200. Multiple touches of this resistance have resulted in pullbacks, indicating its strong resistance. Only a strong breakout and consolidation above this zone will allow us to be bullish! The next resistance level is around 2300, with extreme resistance around 2377.
➡️Short-term support is around 2075, with a good support zone between 1908 and 1955.
Let's see 👀
🤜If you like my analysis, please like 💖 and share 💬 #Wolf_king88 $ETH
Wolf_king88
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Bearish
📊#ETH Key Support?
🧠From a structural perspective, we've broken below the support zone formed by two necklines, thus reducing my expectations for further upward momentum. 2200 has transformed from support into resistance; the extreme resistance zone to watch is the blue area above.
➡️Short-term support worth noting is around 1990, with more conservative support around 1955, and extreme support around 1908.
➡️Similarly, while I'm bearish, we need to patiently wait for the price to reach the resistance zone before looking for a short signal.
⚠️Risk management is the only way to survive in this market.
Let's see 👀
🤜If you like my analysis, please like 💖 and share 💬 #Wolf_king88 $ETH {future}(ETHUSDT)
🧠From a structural perspective, we've broken below the support zone formed by two necklines, thus reducing my expectations for further upward momentum. 2200 has transformed from support into resistance; the extreme resistance zone to watch is the blue area above.
➡️Short-term support worth noting is around 1990, with more conservative support around 1955, and extreme support around 1908.
➡️Similarly, while I'm bearish, we need to patiently wait for the price to reach the resistance zone before looking for a short signal.
⚠️Risk management is the only way to survive in this market.
Let's see 👀
🤜If you like my analysis, please like 💖 and share 💬 #Wolf_king88 $ETH
🧠From a structural perspective, we failed to hold the 70,000 support level and did not see a strong rebound. Therefore, the previous support has now turned into resistance, and we need to be wary of the risk of further decline. The next support level to watch is around $68,400, with an extreme support zone around $65,000-$66,000!
➡️We exited our long positions near $70,000 near our cost price due to the market's weaker-than-expected performance.
⚠️Please note that due to the weaker-than-expected market performance, be cautious of a possible retest of 60,000. Those wishing to participate in short positions should patiently wait for a price rebound before looking for signals.
Let's see 👀
🤜If you like my analysis, please like 💖 and share 💬 #Wolf_king88 $BTC
I warned you in advance that if we couldn't hold the support at 73600, there would be a crash! And the market has crashed as expected.
I closed my short position near the green target zone. It's already fallen over $2700 from 73600! Congratulations to those who followed and profited! 🍻
The larger decline hasn't stopped yet. Let's observe whether the market stabilizes in 8 hours. #Wolf_king88 $BTC
Wolf_king88
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Bearish
📊#BTC Beware of a Plunge📉
🧠From a structural perspective, there's a chance a bearish head and shoulders pattern is forming here. If 73600 fails to hold, a plunge is possible, and even support around 72000 might not be enough to stop the decline (this is only suitable for scalping). We need to be wary of a deep pullback; better support is around $70000.
➡️If we successfully hold the support around 73600, the next resistance level to watch is the blue resistance zone around 75700.
Let's see 👀
🤜If you like my analysis, please like💖 and share💬 #Wolf_king88 $BTC {future}(BTCUSDT)
🧠From a structural perspective, we've built a bearish structure in the blue resistance zone, so we need to be wary of further pullbacks. Scalping support is around 2208, decent support is around 2140, and extreme support is around 2018!
➡️Yesterday we closed our long positions opened around 2300 because we were worried about a potential crash. We're glad we avoided losses in advance!
🤜If you like my analysis, please like 💖 and share 💬 #Wolf_king88 $ETH
🧠From a structural perspective, there's a chance a bearish head and shoulders pattern is forming here. If 73600 fails to hold, a plunge is possible, and even support around 72000 might not be enough to stop the decline (this is only suitable for scalping). We need to be wary of a deep pullback; better support is around $70000.
➡️If we successfully hold the support around 73600, the next resistance level to watch is the blue resistance zone around 75700.
Let's see 👀
🤜If you like my analysis, please like💖 and share💬 #Wolf_king88 $BTC