Ashley 翠花

The National Development and Reform Commission issued a verbal directive on March 4, requiring major domestic refining companies (PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOOC, Sinochem, and Zhejiang Petrochemical, etc.) to immediately suspend diesel and gasoline exports.
Here are a few brief analyses:

1. Impact on the global energy market

- As the world's second-largest refined oil exporter, China's suspension of exports has directly tightened supply in the Asian region, raising the diesel crack spread in places like Singapore and intensifying global energy market tensions.
​
- The global energy price center is shifting upwards, and market concerns over supply interruptions continue to ferment. Refineries in Japan, Indonesia, India, and other Asian countries have begun to cut production.

2. Impact on the domestic market

- Priority is given to ensuring domestic spring plowing, industrial recovery, and transportation fuel demands, building a “safety cushion” for energy supply and stabilizing domestic price expectations.
​
- Domestic refining companies face limited export channels, squeezing profit margins; companies with overseas production capacity can evade restrictions and enjoy the benefits of expanded regional price differentials.
​
- Cost pressures are increasing for high-energy-consuming downstream industries such as logistics, aviation, and chemicals, compressing profit margins.

3. Deeper signals

- Clearly conveys the message that “energy security takes precedence over trade flows,” reflecting China's emphasis on the controllability of the energy supply chain amidst the reshaping of the global geopolitical landscape.
​
- The policy is likely to be temporary and preventive; if the situation in the Middle East eases or domestic inventories are sufficient, export restrictions may gradually be relaxed.

Eileen Gu will join Benchmark as a Senior Investment Manager

Odaily Planet Daily reported that Eileen Gu will join Benchmark, led by Bill Gurley, as a Senior Investment Manager after the Winter Olympics.
Benchmark (Benchmark Capital) is one of Silicon Valley's top early-stage venture capital (VC) firms, and Bill Gurley is one of its core partners.
Core Business
- Focused on early-stage technology investments: primarily seed and Series A rounds, rarely investing in later stages.
- Sector focus: mobile internet, social media, enterprise software, AI, cloud services, consumer technology, marketplace platforms (Marketplaces).#谷爱凌 #Benchmark

The current state of the domestic Web3 and RWA industry, policy environment, and future opportunities.

The domestic Web3/RWA field has recently faced strict regulation, with tightening policies aimed at preventing financial risks, capital outflow, and social instability.
The compliant path within the country will primarily serve large state-owned enterprises and listed companies, leaning towards a model combining non-financial digital asset issuance with consumer rights, emphasizing real consumption value.
Abroad (especially in Hong Kong), a relatively loose environment is provided, allowing for issuance and secondary circulation in the form of consumer rights, thereby avoiding strict securities regulation.

1. Domestic Digital Consumption Model
The core model is to bundle digital assets with physical goods (such as brain platinum and Mellow Blue), where purchasing physical goods grants access to digital collectibles (NFT/MT), guiding consumption in this way.
This model emphasizes avoiding financial attributes, does not promise returns or dividends, and positions digital assets as consumable rights or membership cards that can appreciate in value.
Currently, it mainly serves state-owned enterprises, listed companies, and their first-level subsidiaries, and in the future, it will explore providing low-cost trial issuance channels for small and medium-sized enterprises.

2. Overseas (Hong Kong) Business Model
For overseas users, digital assets with consumer rights can be issued directly, supporting simultaneous primary market sales and secondary market trading.
The key is to achieve a natural increase in asset value through a “deflationary model” (such as platform profits repurchasing and destroying tokens), rather than promising fixed dividend returns, thus avoiding securities regulation.

3. Focus on Core Tracks and Project Logic
The focus is on cultural IP, brands, and consensus-based TOC projects, as they have strong business models, unlimited online productivity, and are easy to realize online closed loops.
For example: digital assets like music copyrights that possess real-world cash flow, due to their underlying assets being real, easy to confirm rights, and divisible, are considered a direction with great potential at present.
We welcome interested family members to communicate together!
#RWA赛道 #Web3GamingFuture
$BTC
$ETH
$BNB

Future Trend Assessment: Moderate Slowdown, Controllable Recession Risks.
- Baseline Scenario: Soft Landing—Moderate Economic Growth, Gradual Decline in Inflation, Slow Increase in Unemployment Rate (4.4%—4.5%).
- Upside Risks: Employment Continues to Exceed Expectations, Wage Stickiness, Inflation Rebound, Forcing the Federal Reserve to Delay Interest Rate Cuts.
- Downside Risks: Rapid Weakening of Employment, Expansion of Corporate Layoffs, Cooling Consumption, Triggering a Mild Recession.
- Core Judgment: No Deep Recession in 2026, Growth Lower in the First Half and Higher in the Second Half, Benefiting from Interest Rate Cuts and Investment Rebound in the Second Half.

Monetary Policy: Delay in Interest Rate Cuts, Slower Pace.
1. Short-term (March): Significant Decrease in Probability of Interest Rate Cuts.
- Non-Farm Payrolls Exceeding Expectations + Hawkish Committee Member Statements (“If Employment Doesn’t Collapse, No Rate Cuts”), March Rate Cuts Essentially Excluded;
- The Federal Reserve Will Maintain an Interest Rate Range of 3.50%—3.75%, Waiting for More Data Verification.
2. Medium-term (May—June): Interest Rate Cut Window Opens.
- If Subsequent Employment Returns to Weakness, Inflation Continues to Decline (Core PCE Approaches 2%), High Probability of First Rate Cut of 25bp in May—June;
- Total of 2—3 Rate Cuts for the Year (Cumulative 50—75bp), Terminal Rate 3.0%—3.25%.
3. Policy Logic Shift:
- Focus Shifts from “Anti-Inflation” to “Balancing Growth and Employment,” Rate Cuts Become More Cautious and Data-Dependent;
- Will Not Quickly Ease, Avoiding a Resurgence of Inflation; Also Will Not Overly Tighten, Preventing an Economic Hard Landing.

Summary:
January Non-Farm Payrolls Strong in the Short Term, Weak in the Medium Term, U.S. Economy Shows Moderate Resilience, No Recession; The Federal Reserve Will Not Cut Rates in March, Initiating in May—June, Slower Pace of Rate Cuts for the Year.

The unemployment rate in the United States is slightly below expectations

The unemployment rate in the U.S. for January was recorded at 4.3%, slightly lower than the market expectation of 4.4%, setting a new low since August 2025. #美国失业率略低于预期

U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Exceed Expectations in January,

On February 11, the U.S. seasonally adjusted non-farm employment increased by 130,000 in January, significantly higher than the market expectation median of 70,000, marking the largest increase since April 2025. #美国1月非农大超预期

Dear ones, the most painful thing about doing business is being charged high fees by payment organizations, right? When customers swipe their Visa/Mastercard to pay 100 yuan, the bank and payment organization directly take away 3 yuan. For the retail industry with only a 10% profit margin, this directly cuts 30% off the net profit, which is simply a legal 'rent collection'.

And #plasma is initiating a 'rebellion' against traditional payment giants! Its ambition is not just to be a public chain, but to become the 'next generation global cash register'. When the global cash register system integrates the Plasma payment protocol, it can help tens of millions of merchants launch a 'profit defense battle'. After large-scale access by merchants, it is necessary to hold $XPL to maintain the payment channel, forming a commercial pledge supported by 'cost-saving demand'.

Next time when you buy water at the convenience store downstairs, and the owner says 'Use Plasma to get a 2% discount', Web3 has really won—merchants save 3%, you get 2%, everyone profits, only Visa loses.
#plasma $XPL
$BTC
$ETH

https://www.bsmkweb.com/referral/earn-together/refer2earn-usdc/claim?hl=en&ref=GRO_28502_1C73Z&utm_source=default

💡 Core Viewpoints Interpretation
1. Legal Definition Clarified: It is reiterated that virtual currency is not currency, does not possess legal tender status, and cannot circulate as currency; related activities are all considered illegal financial activities.
2. Regulatory Boundaries Tightened: Not only is domestic virtual currency trading, exchange, issuance, and financing prohibited, but it is also explicitly forbidden for foreign institutions to provide related services domestically, as well as the issuance of stablecoins pegged to the Renminbi abroad; the regulatory scope is further expanded.
3. Risk Warnings Clarified: Investors are reminded once again that participating in virtual currency trading and speculation does not protect their rights under the law; they must be cautious of high risks and should not blindly follow trends.

🔥 The latest regulatory guidelines from the CSRC are out, and RWA tokenization faces a "tightening spell"!

The CSRC has issued the "Regulatory Guidelines on the Issuance of Asset-Backed Securities Tokens for Domestic Assets Overseas," clarifying:
✅ Domestic assets issued overseas as tokens must be filed first!
✅ Six categories of "red lines" must not be crossed; severe violations and ownership disputes are directly banned!
✅ Cross-border, foreign exchange, and data security cannot be compromised!

The past approach of "domestic assets, overseas issuance of tokens" is completely unworkable now. The regulatory authorities are using a "combination of loosening and tightening" method to maintain risk thresholds while allowing space for compliant innovation.

For investors, this is an important signal to protect their wallets; for the industry, it is an inevitable path to bid farewell to rampant growth and move towards standardization.

#RWA Tokenization #Financial Regulation #Asset Securitization #合规先行 $BTC $ETH $BNB