等风来Vireo

The essence of life is the process of information processing.

Construct cognitive depth through "dimension elevation."
Dimension elevation acquisition: Integrate fragmented experiences and discrete signals into a multi-dimensional, cross-temporal insight system.

Achieve value output and connection through "dimension reduction."
Dimension reduction expression: The process of compressing complex insights, intuitions, and systematic knowledge into linear language or text.

Dimension elevation is an inward evolution, while dimension reduction is an outward giving.
The most counterintuitive point is: Our efforts to learn, read, and practice are essentially making ourselves "harder to understand" (dimension elevation); while all our desires for expression are essentially conducting a "costly translation" (dimension reduction).

如果有人拿刀在街上抢你的钱，你会愤怒，会报警，甚至会跟他拼命。但现在不这么干了，他们玩的是“预期操纵”。

通过新闻、短视频、专家发言，给你制造一种错觉——比如现在买这只股票肯定涨。你信了，把钱投进去，结果亏得血本无归。这时候你不会去拼命，你只会躲在被窝里拍大腿懊悔。

越是没见过世面、思维单一、容易听风就是雨的人，越容易被忽悠瘸了，成为完美的韭菜。

用算法和信息差给你洗脑，让你自己心甘情愿地把钱拿出来，亏了还怪自己不努力。

Powell still denies the existence of "stagflation" at the Federal Reserve meeting, but in fact, we are already in stagflation; stubbornness does not change the facts.

The most critical signal is when the Federal Reserve will begin to acknowledge the existence of "stagflation."

This means that the "inflation target" has internally given way to "financial stability" or "preventing a great depression."

Acknowledgment is often closely followed by "quasi-QE" measures, marking the beginning of implicit monetary easing.
#美联储3月议息会议

Bitcoin is not a stable safe-haven asset.

It is more like a mixture of three things:
one part is a liquid asset

one part is a high beta risk asset

one part is a long-term narrative asset diluted against fiat currency

So it switches identities at different stages:

Short-term liquidity panic: like a risk asset, it drops first

Expectations of stimulus rise: like the strongest elastic asset, it rises later

Long-term monetary credit deterioration: it will again be referred to as 'digital gold'

So you can't ask 'Is BTC a safe haven?'.
A more accurate question is:

Is the market trading 'de-leveraging' this time, or is it trading 'stimulus again'?

What truly matters is not the news headlines, but where the funds are fleeing to, which types of assets are being forced to sell first, and which benefiting assets are not rising.\n\nEnergy stocks have not kept up with oil prices, which is the most informative point.\n\nThis is more valuable than the rise in oil prices themselves, because oil prices reflect the current panic, while energy stocks reflect the discounted future cash flows.\n\nIf even the energy stocks that should benefit the most have not confirmed synchronously, it indicates that the market is saying: this round of rising oil prices is more event-driven, rather than a long-term repricing of supply and demand.\n\nThe message conveyed by the market this time is very clear: everyone is treating it as a shock to liquidity and risk appetite, rather than the starting point of a long-term super cycle.

The impact of AI will eventually extend to private credit, such as the original high-quality cash flow corporate software company bonds, etc., but now much of the logic has been reshaped by AI, profits are quickly disappearing, while debt remains rigid.

At this time, Bitcoin, due to its good liquidity, will be used to exchange for cash to put out fires, so it will first drop a bit.

But here's the key point: Due to the excessive debt in the United States, it cannot withstand turmoil, and the government will definitely start the printing press again.

Once the faucet is turned on, it will be a real carnival moment for Bitcoin, which is considered "anti-rescue" digital gold.

Is the probability of a recession and interest rate cuts greater, or is the probability of inflation and interest rate hikes greater?

First, the answer is a rate cut.

It has become quite clear that we are currently in a stagflation phase!

The current inflationary pressure is not due to an overheating economy or too much money in people's hands (demand side), but rather purely a supply-side shock. In the face of this type of inflation, the monetary policy of the central bank is partially ineffective; raising interest rates cannot produce natural gas, and the cost of forced rate hikes is extremely high.

What can truly bring down inflation is not the central bank's benchmark interest rate, but the destruction of demand. High energy prices are the harshest form of “rate hike.” As the transmission from inflation to recession occurs, when this pressure reaches a critical point, the economy can no longer bear the heavy burden, unemployment rates soar, and manufacturing PMI contracts sharply, leading to a true “Great Recession.”

If inflation and recession strike simultaneously, political pressure will inevitably force the central bank (even if they appear independent) to prioritize economic stability and employment, which means moving towards rate cuts.

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