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自由交易聊天室 The gathering place for financial fortune has come together, where everyone can speak freely, debate viewpoints, and is a very open and inclusive chat room, helping newcomers avoid pitfalls and take fewer detours, making many friends, and speaking kindly.
The dealer hard pulls the plate for $USUAL , but the bullets run out quickly, short it to eat meat
The game between the US and Iran is getting more intense.
Iran has been cut off from the internet for over a month, international data traffic is only 1%-3% of what it was before the conflict, and the black market for Starlink devices has skyrocketed in price. The government is conducting strict inspections, and those caught face imprisonment. Food inflation has doubled, with citizens spending more than half of their monthly income on food, while public services such as water, electricity, and healthcare are intermittently disrupted, causing people to struggle.
The biggest variable moving forward is Khark Island. This island is the lifeblood of Iran's oil exports, accounting for 90% of the country's oil exports each year. If the US military takes it, Iran's fiscal revenue will be halved. The Revolutionary Guard is stationed on the island, and landmines and bunkers are prepared. Betting on the Chain Casino gives a 40% chance of US forces capturing the island, indicating that the general sentiment is not very optimistic.
On the other side, the Strait of Hormuz has been closed again. In the past month, a dozen Chinese merchant ships have passed through, while hundreds are trapped in the Persian Gulf. Iran claims that "friendly nations can navigate," but the actual operation is a drip-release, and recently, they have completely locked it down. They aim to force oil prices to rise, applying pressure on US inflation.
The Houthis have also come forward to show support, launching missiles at Israel. Although the military threat is not significant, the blockade of the Mandeb Strait is their real trump card. Coupled with cheap drones, from a strategic deterrence perspective, they pose a comparable threat to nuclear weapons.
Two other minor issues: Iranian missiles hit the largest aluminum plant in the UAE, affecting 4% of global production capacity, which may impact aluminum prices; the Turkish central bank sold $8 billion worth of gold last week.
Both sides currently feel that they are winning this battle, but the reality is that it is still escalating. The next week or two will be a critical window, with oil prices potentially soaring to $120 $BTC $XAU $XAG
Iran has been cut off from the internet for over a month, international data traffic is only 1%-3% of what it was before the conflict, and the black market for Starlink devices has skyrocketed in price. The government is conducting strict inspections, and those caught face imprisonment. Food inflation has doubled, with citizens spending more than half of their monthly income on food, while public services such as water, electricity, and healthcare are intermittently disrupted, causing people to struggle.
The biggest variable moving forward is Khark Island. This island is the lifeblood of Iran's oil exports, accounting for 90% of the country's oil exports each year. If the US military takes it, Iran's fiscal revenue will be halved. The Revolutionary Guard is stationed on the island, and landmines and bunkers are prepared. Betting on the Chain Casino gives a 40% chance of US forces capturing the island, indicating that the general sentiment is not very optimistic.
On the other side, the Strait of Hormuz has been closed again. In the past month, a dozen Chinese merchant ships have passed through, while hundreds are trapped in the Persian Gulf. Iran claims that "friendly nations can navigate," but the actual operation is a drip-release, and recently, they have completely locked it down. They aim to force oil prices to rise, applying pressure on US inflation.
The Houthis have also come forward to show support, launching missiles at Israel. Although the military threat is not significant, the blockade of the Mandeb Strait is their real trump card. Coupled with cheap drones, from a strategic deterrence perspective, they pose a comparable threat to nuclear weapons.
Two other minor issues: Iranian missiles hit the largest aluminum plant in the UAE, affecting 4% of global production capacity, which may impact aluminum prices; the Turkish central bank sold $8 billion worth of gold last week.
Both sides currently feel that they are winning this battle, but the reality is that it is still escalating. The next week or two will be a critical window, with oil prices potentially soaring to $120 $BTC $XAU $XAG
Trump wants to disrupt the world, the next Cuba, all we can do is short the Trump family's coin $TRUMP $WLFI
$TRUMP Remember to only sell and not buy from the seller; this simple truth can only lead to shorting it.
The Middle East stew is getting thicker as it stirs
Over the weekend, the situation in Iran escalated again. The US-Israeli coalition bombed power plants and steel mills, while the Houthis are also active, launching missiles at Israel, effectively opening a second front. Countries like Saudi Arabia are very displeased with Iran's claims of sovereignty over Hormuz and have stated that it is not conducive to a ceasefire.
The US Marine Corps is already in place, and the plan to seize the island is reportedly just waiting for Trump’s approval, with market predictions showing a probability of over 50%.
The religious factions involved are quite interesting: both the Houthis and Iran are Shia, but from different branches; they are allies, but Iran cannot control them. Hezbollah is different, as it directly pledges allegiance to Iran's supreme leader, effectively functioning as a hierarchical structure. Although Hezbollah is Lebanese, its loyalty is to Iran—Lebanon wants to improve relations with Israel, but the Shia, who make up one-third of the population, feel they represent Iranian interests. Each country has its own multinational big brother, making consensus very difficult.
Going deeper, throughout history, the Middle East has seen the rise of three major empires: Persian, Arab, and Ottoman. Now, each country wants to be the heir, dreaming of a "great revival." Whenever someone gains a bit of strength, they start to infiltrate their neighbors, with religion being the most effective tool. Iran is just the latest to emerge.
The good news is that Thailand has reached an agreement with Iran, with a shipping fee of 2 million dollars, so passage through Hormuz is possible. The bad news is that the conflict seems likely to become prolonged, which will exacerbate its impact on the global economy.
In the US, 7 million people are gathering against Trump, with the core issue being opposition to the war with Iran. Vance has also indicated that US troops are to withdraw in the short term, implying that ground forces may not be deployed. Trump is familiar with this scenario; it’s how the Vietnam War ended.
On Friday night, oil prices surged, and strangely, gold also rose sharply. The rise in oil prices is understandable, but the increase in gold... the risk-averse sentiment is back. $BTC $XAU
Over the weekend, the situation in Iran escalated again. The US-Israeli coalition bombed power plants and steel mills, while the Houthis are also active, launching missiles at Israel, effectively opening a second front. Countries like Saudi Arabia are very displeased with Iran's claims of sovereignty over Hormuz and have stated that it is not conducive to a ceasefire.
The US Marine Corps is already in place, and the plan to seize the island is reportedly just waiting for Trump’s approval, with market predictions showing a probability of over 50%.
The religious factions involved are quite interesting: both the Houthis and Iran are Shia, but from different branches; they are allies, but Iran cannot control them. Hezbollah is different, as it directly pledges allegiance to Iran's supreme leader, effectively functioning as a hierarchical structure. Although Hezbollah is Lebanese, its loyalty is to Iran—Lebanon wants to improve relations with Israel, but the Shia, who make up one-third of the population, feel they represent Iranian interests. Each country has its own multinational big brother, making consensus very difficult.
Going deeper, throughout history, the Middle East has seen the rise of three major empires: Persian, Arab, and Ottoman. Now, each country wants to be the heir, dreaming of a "great revival." Whenever someone gains a bit of strength, they start to infiltrate their neighbors, with religion being the most effective tool. Iran is just the latest to emerge.
The good news is that Thailand has reached an agreement with Iran, with a shipping fee of 2 million dollars, so passage through Hormuz is possible. The bad news is that the conflict seems likely to become prolonged, which will exacerbate its impact on the global economy.
In the US, 7 million people are gathering against Trump, with the core issue being opposition to the war with Iran. Vance has also indicated that US troops are to withdraw in the short term, implying that ground forces may not be deployed. Trump is familiar with this scenario; it’s how the Vietnam War ended.
On Friday night, oil prices surged, and strangely, gold also rose sharply. The rise in oil prices is understandable, but the increase in gold... the risk-averse sentiment is back. $BTC $XAU
$我踏马来了 eats $龙虾 , feeling comfortable for a moment counts as a moment, and is tempted again, is there someone to take over? Short it!
$GUN This coin has unlocked so much, and can be further issued, it must be shorted first to make a big profit
$CHZ The World Cup you are promoting is a great opportunity for the project party to deliver goods. It's the right time to boost sales, don't let the World Cup hold you hostage!!!
$SIREN Animal currency paints the door every day, we just like to play exciting games, today we draw down, short it!!
Let's talk about a recent hot topic in the crypto space, which is quite interesting.
Currently, the GENIUS Act stipulates that stablecoin issuers cannot directly pay interest to holders, but it has left a loophole, not stating that third parties cannot do so. Therefore, exchanges and DeFi are using terms like 'yield rewards' to indirectly provide interest. The newly proposed Clarity Act aims to close this loophole, but the gray area still exists.
This reminds me of a story from 700 years ago.
The Knights Templar had a system of 'encrypted cross-border payments'—if you deposited gold in London, they would give you an encrypted certificate, which you could use to withdraw money in Jerusalem. With this business, the Templar accumulated vast wealth and became the largest creditor in France. As a result, King Philip IV of France had no intention of paying back and directly labeled the Templar as 'heretics,' confiscated their assets, and arrested them.
Now, the U.S. national debt has exceeded 39 trillion, with interest alone over 1 trillion a year. Seen this way, the U.S. government is unlikely to pay back honestly in the future. But it cannot directly eliminate creditors like Philip IV did—because the holders of U.S. debt are too dispersed, with foreign holders like Japan, China, and the UK accounting for a large portion, outside U.S. jurisdiction, and forcibly defaulting on dollar credit would collapse it.
So what to do?
The current stablecoin legislation provides a way forward. The GENIUS Act requires issuers to allocate reserves to U.S. debt, while the actual users of stablecoins are retail investors worldwide. Money flows in from abroad, but the creditors become licensed issuers registered in the U.S. This completes a crucial conversion: it concentrates the debts that are scattered among central banks and institutions globally into a few entities within U.S. jurisdiction.
As long as the creditors are within the U.S. controlled range, it will be much easier to manage in the future.
So I have a judgment: regulators will currently keep one eye open and one eye closed, allowing the stablecoin market to grow first. When the timing is right, this gray area will transform into a tool for liquidation.
Interestingly, after the liquidation of the Knights Templar, cross-border finance in Europe did not stop for a day; it simply changed players—from the Templars to Italian bankers, then to the Dutch and the British, evolving into today's modern banking system.
If one day the stablecoin issuers are liquidated, especially Tether, which has a rich history of controversies, it would not be surprising. $BTC
Currently, the GENIUS Act stipulates that stablecoin issuers cannot directly pay interest to holders, but it has left a loophole, not stating that third parties cannot do so. Therefore, exchanges and DeFi are using terms like 'yield rewards' to indirectly provide interest. The newly proposed Clarity Act aims to close this loophole, but the gray area still exists.
This reminds me of a story from 700 years ago.
The Knights Templar had a system of 'encrypted cross-border payments'—if you deposited gold in London, they would give you an encrypted certificate, which you could use to withdraw money in Jerusalem. With this business, the Templar accumulated vast wealth and became the largest creditor in France. As a result, King Philip IV of France had no intention of paying back and directly labeled the Templar as 'heretics,' confiscated their assets, and arrested them.
Now, the U.S. national debt has exceeded 39 trillion, with interest alone over 1 trillion a year. Seen this way, the U.S. government is unlikely to pay back honestly in the future. But it cannot directly eliminate creditors like Philip IV did—because the holders of U.S. debt are too dispersed, with foreign holders like Japan, China, and the UK accounting for a large portion, outside U.S. jurisdiction, and forcibly defaulting on dollar credit would collapse it.
So what to do?
The current stablecoin legislation provides a way forward. The GENIUS Act requires issuers to allocate reserves to U.S. debt, while the actual users of stablecoins are retail investors worldwide. Money flows in from abroad, but the creditors become licensed issuers registered in the U.S. This completes a crucial conversion: it concentrates the debts that are scattered among central banks and institutions globally into a few entities within U.S. jurisdiction.
As long as the creditors are within the U.S. controlled range, it will be much easier to manage in the future.
So I have a judgment: regulators will currently keep one eye open and one eye closed, allowing the stablecoin market to grow first. When the timing is right, this gray area will transform into a tool for liquidation.
Interestingly, after the liquidation of the Knights Templar, cross-border finance in Europe did not stop for a day; it simply changed players—from the Templars to Italian bankers, then to the Dutch and the British, evolving into today's modern banking system.
If one day the stablecoin issuers are liquidated, especially Tether, which has a rich history of controversies, it would not be surprising. $BTC
Morgan Stanley has entered the game, and this time it's for real.
They have just submitted their S-1 filing to the SEC, preparing to launch their own spot Bitcoin ETF, code-named MSBT. The most aggressive part is that the management fee has been set at just 0.14%, lower than that of BlackRock and Grayscale.
Why is it so low? Because Morgan Stanley has 16,000 financial advisors, who are bound by fiduciary duties; if the fees are high, they simply won't be able to sell it. By lowering the fees to the minimum, it effectively removes barriers for internal channels.
Who are the clients served by these advisors? They are the baby boomers in the United States, holding 52% of the nation's wealth, with total assets amounting to hundreds of trillions of dollars. They will not open accounts themselves, nor will they research Layer 2 solutions, but they will have phone calls with their financial advisors every quarter.
If Morgan Stanley's ETF gets approved, it will effectively open up the private wealth management channel. Some estimates suggest that even if only 2% of client assets flow in, it would represent a demand level of $160 billion, exceeding the total of all current Bitcoin ETFs combined.
The previous two waves of capital—crypto-native users and large institutions—have already entered the market. The next wave of growth will come from these wealthy middle-aged and older individuals waiting at home for phone calls from their financial advisors.
This time, Morgan Stanley is not just issuing an ETF; they are also applying for a national trust bank license, seeking to manage custody and trading themselves, gradually freeing themselves from dependence on crypto exchanges. They have also suggested clients allocate 2%-4% of their assets into crypto assets, including retirement accounts.
2024 is when the ETF is expected to be approved, 2025 is when institutions will come in, and 2026 may be the year when the private wealth channel truly opens up. The wealth of this baby boomer generation is the real buying power. $BTC $ETH
They have just submitted their S-1 filing to the SEC, preparing to launch their own spot Bitcoin ETF, code-named MSBT. The most aggressive part is that the management fee has been set at just 0.14%, lower than that of BlackRock and Grayscale.
Why is it so low? Because Morgan Stanley has 16,000 financial advisors, who are bound by fiduciary duties; if the fees are high, they simply won't be able to sell it. By lowering the fees to the minimum, it effectively removes barriers for internal channels.
Who are the clients served by these advisors? They are the baby boomers in the United States, holding 52% of the nation's wealth, with total assets amounting to hundreds of trillions of dollars. They will not open accounts themselves, nor will they research Layer 2 solutions, but they will have phone calls with their financial advisors every quarter.
If Morgan Stanley's ETF gets approved, it will effectively open up the private wealth management channel. Some estimates suggest that even if only 2% of client assets flow in, it would represent a demand level of $160 billion, exceeding the total of all current Bitcoin ETFs combined.
The previous two waves of capital—crypto-native users and large institutions—have already entered the market. The next wave of growth will come from these wealthy middle-aged and older individuals waiting at home for phone calls from their financial advisors.
This time, Morgan Stanley is not just issuing an ETF; they are also applying for a national trust bank license, seeking to manage custody and trading themselves, gradually freeing themselves from dependence on crypto exchanges. They have also suggested clients allocate 2%-4% of their assets into crypto assets, including retirement accounts.
2024 is when the ETF is expected to be approved, 2025 is when institutions will come in, and 2026 may be the year when the private wealth channel truly opens up. The wealth of this baby boomer generation is the real buying power. $BTC $ETH
$SIREN Dead coins let the brokers do more by themselves, while retail investors keep shorting it, shorting it to death!!
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