苏虎
专注加密12年，公众号【币圈虎哥】。
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In June 2011, Bitcoin plummeted from $32 to $2.
Drop: 94%.
A technology journalist named Betteridge wrote an article titled:
"Bitcoin: A Murdered Currency Experiment?"
The article was well-argued, with detailed data, and a clear conclusion:
Bitcoin is over.
After the article was published, it was widely reprinted, becoming the most representative "Bitcoin Death Notice" at the time.
Then Bitcoin started to rise.
It rose back to $10.
It rose to $100.
It rose to $1000.
This journalist did not admit he was wrong, but made a bolder decision:
He continued to write.
When it rose to $1000 in 2013, he wrote: The bubble peak is about to collapse.
It collapsed, falling back to $200, he wrote: I was right.
It rose again to $20,000, and he was silent for a while.
It fell back to $3000, he revived: I have always been right.
Later, someone did a statistic:
From 2010 to now, there have been over 500 traceable "Bitcoin Death Notices" online.
With each crash, dozens of new ones are added.
Each author believes they are the one who is awake.
Someone specifically created a website called "Bitcoin Obituaries,"
which can be translated as: Bitcoin Obituary Collection Station.
It archives every article announcing Bitcoin's death.
As of today, it has collected over 500 obituaries.
The homepage of the website has a line:
"Bitcoin has died over 500 times. Each time, it has come back to life."
The truly interesting part of this story is not how much Bitcoin has risen.
But rather:
With each crash, there is a group of sincerely intelligent people who present rigorous logic, declaring its end.
Each time, they are right—
just a bit too early.
Or a bit too late.
Today is another day for a new obituary to be born.
Which number is it?
I can't count them all.
Drop: 94%.
A technology journalist named Betteridge wrote an article titled:
"Bitcoin: A Murdered Currency Experiment?"
The article was well-argued, with detailed data, and a clear conclusion:
Bitcoin is over.
After the article was published, it was widely reprinted, becoming the most representative "Bitcoin Death Notice" at the time.
Then Bitcoin started to rise.
It rose back to $10.
It rose to $100.
It rose to $1000.
This journalist did not admit he was wrong, but made a bolder decision:
He continued to write.
When it rose to $1000 in 2013, he wrote: The bubble peak is about to collapse.
It collapsed, falling back to $200, he wrote: I was right.
It rose again to $20,000, and he was silent for a while.
It fell back to $3000, he revived: I have always been right.
Later, someone did a statistic:
From 2010 to now, there have been over 500 traceable "Bitcoin Death Notices" online.
With each crash, dozens of new ones are added.
Each author believes they are the one who is awake.
Someone specifically created a website called "Bitcoin Obituaries,"
which can be translated as: Bitcoin Obituary Collection Station.
It archives every article announcing Bitcoin's death.
As of today, it has collected over 500 obituaries.
The homepage of the website has a line:
"Bitcoin has died over 500 times. Each time, it has come back to life."
The truly interesting part of this story is not how much Bitcoin has risen.
But rather:
With each crash, there is a group of sincerely intelligent people who present rigorous logic, declaring its end.
Each time, they are right—
just a bit too early.
Or a bit too late.
Today is another day for a new obituary to be born.
Which number is it?
I can't count them all.
Why is $60,000 for BTC the "steel bottom" of this cycle?
Many people are still waiting for Bitcoin to reach 20,000 or 30,000. I want to say one thing: that world may really not come back.
Say three things, and then you can judge for yourself 👇
1⃣ Bitcoin has already "upgraded" (the leap in asset status: surpassing silver's consensus)
The fact that its market cap exceeds that of silver sounds like a numbers game, but the significance behind it is completely different—it means that BTC has been recognized by the global capital market as a "serious asset" and is no longer a toy for geeks. BlackRock's entry is not to "test the waters"; it is here to "build positions". After institutions come in, the biggest change is: the market has real confidence.
Say three things, and then you can judge for yourself 👇
1⃣ Bitcoin has already "upgraded" (the leap in asset status: surpassing silver's consensus)
The fact that its market cap exceeds that of silver sounds like a numbers game, but the significance behind it is completely different—it means that BTC has been recognized by the global capital market as a "serious asset" and is no longer a toy for geeks. BlackRock's entry is not to "test the waters"; it is here to "build positions". After institutions come in, the biggest change is: the market has real confidence.
BTC Risk Model: An article that clearly explains trading thoughts in the long/short term
When #比特币 's price is suppressed by the STH-RP, it means that when the price touches the short-term cost average line, there will be a large amount of selling pressure, making it unable to break through. This is often the beginning of a significant downward trend (as indicated by the orange arrow in the figure).
Therefore, we regard the STH-RP model as an important risk signal!
However, once the downward trend begins, the BTC price may significantly deviate from the STH-RP, and even if there is a rebound afterwards, it will be far off. Therefore, we need to adjust the algorithm to provide a more referential value, such as the green line in the figure.
Therefore, we regard the STH-RP model as an important risk signal!
However, once the downward trend begins, the BTC price may significantly deviate from the STH-RP, and even if there is a rebound afterwards, it will be far off. Therefore, we need to adjust the algorithm to provide a more referential value, such as the green line in the figure.
In fact, every market situation is the best opportunity for us to review and summarize our experiences: what characteristics are there before an uptrend, and how much capital has been accumulated by the main force before the rise? What characteristics are there at the top before a downturn, and how much capital has fled from the main force’s accumulation?
Bamboo silently took root for 4 years before it grew wildly, and people are the same; if you want to make money, you must first accumulate enough skills, experience, and cognition.
Once everything is in place, making money will naturally follow.
However, many people skip this refining process, fantasizing about falling pies every day, complaining about a bad environment and unfair fate.
In fact, as long as your review and iteration frequency and depth are high enough, a year of understanding can surpass an ordinary person's 4 years of accumulation.
Wishing you all a pleasant weekend and happy playing.
Bamboo silently took root for 4 years before it grew wildly, and people are the same; if you want to make money, you must first accumulate enough skills, experience, and cognition.
Once everything is in place, making money will naturally follow.
However, many people skip this refining process, fantasizing about falling pies every day, complaining about a bad environment and unfair fate.
In fact, as long as your review and iteration frequency and depth are high enough, a year of understanding can surpass an ordinary person's 4 years of accumulation.
Wishing you all a pleasant weekend and happy playing.
Every time Bitcoin collapses, it is later written as 'opportunity'
Every time Bitcoin #BTC collapses, it is later written as 'opportunity':
2014: -58%
2018: -73%
2022: -65%
Currently, there is a feeling of being trapped in a dead loop with the rising logic of BTC—
First, traditional institutions: on the first day, institutions continuously buy BTC through ETFs, so BTC will rise. Assuming a certain Wall Street fund's strategy is 98% traditional assets + 2% BTC spot, on the second day, BTC skyrockets, and its proportion in the fund expands from 2% to 5%, triggering institutional allocation risk control. On the third day, the fund sells BTC to acquire traditional assets, causing BTC to drop. Thus, Bitcoin will rise, so Bitcoin will fall.
2014: -58%
2018: -73%
2022: -65%
Currently, there is a feeling of being trapped in a dead loop with the rising logic of BTC—
First, traditional institutions: on the first day, institutions continuously buy BTC through ETFs, so BTC will rise. Assuming a certain Wall Street fund's strategy is 98% traditional assets + 2% BTC spot, on the second day, BTC skyrockets, and its proportion in the fund expands from 2% to 5%, triggering institutional allocation risk control. On the third day, the fund sells BTC to acquire traditional assets, causing BTC to drop. Thus, Bitcoin will rise, so Bitcoin will fall.
Will Bitcoin have a rebound?
Yesterday, as the U.S. stock market continued to decline, #比特币 broke through support level 1 and even slightly dipped below support level 2. Furthermore, the trading volume during the decline yesterday significantly increased, exceeding the decline trading volume of 3.17-3.19. At first glance, this seems to be a clear bearish signal, but looking at the details of the trading volume on the 4-hour candlestick chart, it is not so pessimistic:
Candlestick 1 broke through support level 1 with increased volume, and this signal is indeed not optimistic;
Candlestick 2 continues to decline with even larger volume, yet the decline is minimal, indicating that after breaking through support level 1, a large amount of panic selling and stop-loss selling occurred, but it was absorbed by the main force, resulting in a typical stopping signal with small bullish volume;
Candlestick 1 broke through support level 1 with increased volume, and this signal is indeed not optimistic;
Candlestick 2 continues to decline with even larger volume, yet the decline is minimal, indicating that after breaking through support level 1, a large amount of panic selling and stop-loss selling occurred, but it was absorbed by the main force, resulting in a typical stopping signal with small bullish volume;
In early 2018—2019, $BTC Bitcoin fell for 6 consecutive months, but the following 5 months were all up
This month Bitcoin has fallen again, also falling for 6 months. If history repeats, the next 5 months will all be ______
This month Bitcoin has fallen again, also falling for 6 months. If history repeats, the next 5 months will all be ______
【Collectible - Indicator Essentials】Use the "Long/Short Position Ratio" and "Funding Rate" to find BTC reversal intervals:
Market leaders often use game theory to create reverse liquidity, providing a counterparty for the direction they truly have "hope" in. In my view, directional judgment in trading can refer more to game theory. The behavioral characteristics of participants in the game cannot predict short-term rises and falls, but they can provide a high win-rate reference for potential reversal intervals.
This article attempts to list two indicators that are closer to the fundamentals of game theory. "Truth is held by a few" is a relatively good reference for reversal timing.
1. Long/Short Position Ratio:
As shown in Figure 1, in the past few months, we have seen that in the BTCUSDT perpetual contract trading pair on Binance (the market contract with the most influence), when the Long/Short Position Ratio falls below 1, meaning there are more short positions than long positions in the market, BTC will start to rise.
When the indicator "turns positive," it can be considered that the market may begin to see a short squeeze. Typically, after a short squeeze, a significant drop usually follows; when most people can no longer hold on, it is often when the market temporarily turns. At this time, investing regularly in some puts with different maturities can be a very high win-rate choice. In the past six months, this phenomenon occurred four times, all resulting in varying degrees of decline.
As shown in Figure 2, at the top of this bull market, it began with a continuous increase in the number of short positions, reversing after the short squeeze and directly forming the peak of a large cycle.
Trading based on the Long/Short Position Ratio usually makes options a better choice, as short squeezes often accompany extreme market conditions, and options won’t face liquidation; losses are limited if the judgment is wrong.
2. Funding Rate:
As shown in Figure 3, when the funding rate has been low for a long time and intermittently shows negative premiums, it also indicates that the shorting force is strengthening, gradually becoming the "majority" in speculation. In this phase, taking a bullish stance has the advantage of being the "minority."
Similarly, with an options strategy, having sufficient cash can allow you to start selling recent puts, balancing both spot investment and interest accumulation, while using the received coupon interest to regularly invest in long-term bullish calls. If there is a sudden hunting-style crash, you can bravely buy the spot for long-term holding.
$BTC has never changed; volatility is just a speculative cycle, taking the road less traveled.
Market leaders often use game theory to create reverse liquidity, providing a counterparty for the direction they truly have "hope" in. In my view, directional judgment in trading can refer more to game theory. The behavioral characteristics of participants in the game cannot predict short-term rises and falls, but they can provide a high win-rate reference for potential reversal intervals.
This article attempts to list two indicators that are closer to the fundamentals of game theory. "Truth is held by a few" is a relatively good reference for reversal timing.
1. Long/Short Position Ratio:
As shown in Figure 1, in the past few months, we have seen that in the BTCUSDT perpetual contract trading pair on Binance (the market contract with the most influence), when the Long/Short Position Ratio falls below 1, meaning there are more short positions than long positions in the market, BTC will start to rise.
When the indicator "turns positive," it can be considered that the market may begin to see a short squeeze. Typically, after a short squeeze, a significant drop usually follows; when most people can no longer hold on, it is often when the market temporarily turns. At this time, investing regularly in some puts with different maturities can be a very high win-rate choice. In the past six months, this phenomenon occurred four times, all resulting in varying degrees of decline.
As shown in Figure 2, at the top of this bull market, it began with a continuous increase in the number of short positions, reversing after the short squeeze and directly forming the peak of a large cycle.
Trading based on the Long/Short Position Ratio usually makes options a better choice, as short squeezes often accompany extreme market conditions, and options won’t face liquidation; losses are limited if the judgment is wrong.
2. Funding Rate:
As shown in Figure 3, when the funding rate has been low for a long time and intermittently shows negative premiums, it also indicates that the shorting force is strengthening, gradually becoming the "majority" in speculation. In this phase, taking a bullish stance has the advantage of being the "minority."
Similarly, with an options strategy, having sufficient cash can allow you to start selling recent puts, balancing both spot investment and interest accumulation, while using the received coupon interest to regularly invest in long-term bullish calls. If there is a sudden hunting-style crash, you can bravely buy the spot for long-term holding.
$BTC has never changed; volatility is just a speculative cycle, taking the road less traveled.
Is dollar-cost averaging Bitcoin a worthwhile long-term endeavor?
The social experiment of Bitcoin is still not over - dollar-cost averaging Bitcoin:
Is dollar-cost averaging #比特币 a worthwhile long-term endeavor?
Let's do a calculation:
1. Starting to dollar-cost average buying at the peak in November 2021, even if it's been a bull market with FOMO buying for 23 years, the cost to date is 40,000.
2. Starting to dollar-cost average Bitcoin at the peak in December 2017, even if it's been a bull market with FOMO buying for 19 years, it has maintained around 15,000 long-term.
3. Buying at the peak in 2013, when the bull market surged hundreds of times, starting to FOMO dollar-cost average at the peak and continued buying until now, with a cost of 1,300.
Is dollar-cost averaging #比特币 a worthwhile long-term endeavor?
Let's do a calculation:
1. Starting to dollar-cost average buying at the peak in November 2021, even if it's been a bull market with FOMO buying for 23 years, the cost to date is 40,000.
2. Starting to dollar-cost average Bitcoin at the peak in December 2017, even if it's been a bull market with FOMO buying for 19 years, it has maintained around 15,000 long-term.
3. Buying at the peak in 2013, when the bull market surged hundreds of times, starting to FOMO dollar-cost average at the peak and continued buying until now, with a cost of 1,300.
$BTC
The current decline is the third segment of the decline starting from 76, with two possibilities:
1. It is a retracement of the rise from 60 to 76;
2. It is a new decline, continuing the decline from 98 to 60;
The judgment point is at 63400:
1. This point is the 0.786 retracement of the rise from 60 to 76, and is also the 1:1 ratio of the decline from 76 to 67332;
2. If it stops falling and rebounds above this point, the probability of adjustment is high; if it falls far below this point, the probability of a new decline is high.
The current decline is the third segment of the decline starting from 76, with two possibilities:
1. It is a retracement of the rise from 60 to 76;
2. It is a new decline, continuing the decline from 98 to 60;
The judgment point is at 63400:
1. This point is the 0.786 retracement of the rise from 60 to 76, and is also the 1:1 ratio of the decline from 76 to 67332;
2. If it stops falling and rebounds above this point, the probability of adjustment is high; if it falls far below this point, the probability of a new decline is high.
Goldman Sachs Official Announcement: Crypto Market Hits Bottom
The end of the bear bottoming zone is often a heartbreaking 'sacrifice':
The ultimate panic sell in the market is essentially the complete collapse of the last psychological defense line of the bulls. That seemingly destructive 'final drop' is, in fact, a thorough clearing and reorganization of chips from 'old hands' to 'new hands'. The on-chain indicator VDD Multiple serves as an accurate 'microscope' to capture this brutal process.
┌── 📑 𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗗𝗶𝘃𝗲 | Indicator Details ──┐
Value Days Destroyed (VDD) Multiple is an advanced indicator evolved from 'Coin Days Destroyed'.
The ultimate panic sell in the market is essentially the complete collapse of the last psychological defense line of the bulls. That seemingly destructive 'final drop' is, in fact, a thorough clearing and reorganization of chips from 'old hands' to 'new hands'. The on-chain indicator VDD Multiple serves as an accurate 'microscope' to capture this brutal process.
┌── 📑 𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗗𝗶𝘃𝗲 | Indicator Details ──┐
Value Days Destroyed (VDD) Multiple is an advanced indicator evolved from 'Coin Days Destroyed'.
Recently, the cryptocurrency market has quietly begun to show some positive repair signals after experiencing adjustments since the beginning of the year. Although the overall market is still in a state of low sentiment, leading assets have demonstrated a certain level of resilience, and funds are starting to flow back selectively, providing a window to observe the trends in the upcoming period. As of March 27, 2026, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies worldwide is approximately $2.36 trillion, with a slight decline of 3.47% in the last 24 hours; however, trading volume remains around $92 billion, without panic selling. The dominance of BTC is stable at 58.3%, indicating that market funds are still centered around BTC. The Fear & Greed Index is currently in the 'fear' range at 28, which reflects cautious investor sentiment but also suggests that the market is at a relatively low level; historically, similar readings often correspond to phase bottoms. The current price of $BTC is around $68,700, with a rise of about 3.66% in the last 24 hours and a cumulative increase of 2.16% over the week. It has successfully maintained important support below the psychological level of $70,000, with certain pressure forming around the 50-day moving average on the technical side. However, on-chain data shows that some long-term holders are still accumulating at low levels. In the short term, if it can stabilize the current range with moderate volume increase, Bitcoin is expected to test the $72,000-$74,000 area; conversely, if it loses the $68,000 support, it may revisit the $65,000 level for a second confirmation. The performance of $ETH is relatively outstanding, with a price of about $2,063 and a rise of 4.80% in the last 24 hours. Its number of active addresses and smart contract calls remain high, and the expectation of the Pectra upgrade injects long-term momentum into the ecosystem. In the Layer1 sector, Solana, Avalanche, Cardano, and others have led with over a 5% increase in the past day, showing that altcoins are starting to present structural opportunities, but overall, it is still in the 'risk preference recovery' phase dominated by Bitcoin, and capital rotation has yet to fully unfold. On a macro level, the uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's policy path, fluctuations in geopolitical situations, and tariff-related factors remain major disturbances. However, institutions' continuous layout through spot ETFs and the robust expansion of the stablecoin ecosystem provide underlying support for the market. Compared to the peak at the end of 2025, the current valuation is already in a relatively reasonable range, with some indicators like MVRV still showing long-term low-risk characteristics. At the beginning of April, the market is likely to continue its oscillation and repair trend.
Continue to wait for the best entry point for Bitcoin's rebound!
Although yesterday the rebound high of Bitcoin was above the March 23 high, it quickly fell back, and the trading volume of the rebound yesterday was relatively small, indicating that there was no major participation, so this rebound is relatively weak and lacks sustainability.
In addition, the S&P futures have not effectively returned above the support level 1 for the past three days, indicating that the buying interest in S&P futures is still relatively weak, and it is highly likely to continue to test lower, testing the March 23 low, or even testing support level 2. In this situation, Bitcoin will also follow the downward trend.
So my view is that the major players may let Bitcoin break below the March 22 low to gather a large amount of liquidity in the 66700-67300 range, but Bitcoin is unlikely to effectively break below the rebound support line.
If this situation occurs, it will be the best entry point for Bitcoin's rebound market.
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice!
Although yesterday the rebound high of Bitcoin was above the March 23 high, it quickly fell back, and the trading volume of the rebound yesterday was relatively small, indicating that there was no major participation, so this rebound is relatively weak and lacks sustainability.
In addition, the S&P futures have not effectively returned above the support level 1 for the past three days, indicating that the buying interest in S&P futures is still relatively weak, and it is highly likely to continue to test lower, testing the March 23 low, or even testing support level 2. In this situation, Bitcoin will also follow the downward trend.
So my view is that the major players may let Bitcoin break below the March 22 low to gather a large amount of liquidity in the 66700-67300 range, but Bitcoin is unlikely to effectively break below the rebound support line.
If this situation occurs, it will be the best entry point for Bitcoin's rebound market.
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice!
BTC electricity production cost (Electrical Cost) has fallen below $50,000
Why do many people in the cryptocurrency space always find themselves in chaos?
- Playing institutional games with retail thinking, chasing high leverage, and trading frequently incurring fees.
- Driven by news and community sentiment, high-level buying and low-level selling.
- Only seeing the myth of getting rich quickly, ignoring the 99% cases of total loss and liquidation.
- No risk control, no system, treating speculation as investment.
In the ever-changing cryptocurrency market, a complete logical chain is needed to make operations coherent: focusing on independent thinking, sticking to your own rules, and adhering to your own judgment criteria is very important.
▷ Market Dynamics ‖ Data Interpretation ◁
- Playing institutional games with retail thinking, chasing high leverage, and trading frequently incurring fees.
- Driven by news and community sentiment, high-level buying and low-level selling.
- Only seeing the myth of getting rich quickly, ignoring the 99% cases of total loss and liquidation.
- No risk control, no system, treating speculation as investment.
In the ever-changing cryptocurrency market, a complete logical chain is needed to make operations coherent: focusing on independent thinking, sticking to your own rules, and adhering to your own judgment criteria is very important.
▷ Market Dynamics ‖ Data Interpretation ◁
Teacher Zhang Xuefeng's sudden passing is also the most painful wake-up call for all of us in the cryptocurrency circle——
This is not industry news, but it is more worth being vigilant than any market fluctuation.
In the cryptocurrency circle, staying up late is almost standard: watching the market, checking news, waiting for landing, rushing projects, making trades, enduring fluctuations…
Many people have long been accustomed to: not sleeping in the early morning, their hearts rising and falling with the candlesticks, irregular meals, and sitting still for long periods.
Markets can come back, opportunities can be waited for, but once life is overdrawn, it can never return.
Many people always say: I'll rest after this wave of the market ends, I'll adjust after this busy period. But the reality is that the market is never short of opportunities, only short of people who can wait for them.
In the cryptocurrency circle, staying up late is almost standard: watching the market, checking news, waiting for landing, rushing projects, making trades, enduring fluctuations…
Many people have long been accustomed to: not sleeping in the early morning, their hearts rising and falling with the candlesticks, irregular meals, and sitting still for long periods.
Markets can come back, opportunities can be waited for, but once life is overdrawn, it can never return.
Many people always say: I'll rest after this wave of the market ends, I'll adjust after this busy period. But the reality is that the market is never short of opportunities, only short of people who can wait for them.
What do you think about when you trade?
Have you ever been curious about what confident, disciplined, and winning mindset individuals think when they trade?
The key to successful trading mainly comes from three types of analysis: fundamental analysis, technical analysis, and psychological analysis.
Fundamental analysis is the closest to natural sciences, as it uses mathematical models to assess various factors (such as interest rates, balance sheets) to predict prices at a certain point in time; however, fundamental analysis ignores the impact of the human variable in investing, as beliefs, emotions, and expectations also influence prices. Thus, technical analysis organizes this collective behavior of investors, forming various curves into recognizable patterns, thereby summarizing laws and probabilities of winning and losing. Technical analysis divides the market into different time zones of investment opportunities, finding more chances for success.
The key to successful trading mainly comes from three types of analysis: fundamental analysis, technical analysis, and psychological analysis.
Fundamental analysis is the closest to natural sciences, as it uses mathematical models to assess various factors (such as interest rates, balance sheets) to predict prices at a certain point in time; however, fundamental analysis ignores the impact of the human variable in investing, as beliefs, emotions, and expectations also influence prices. Thus, technical analysis organizes this collective behavior of investors, forming various curves into recognizable patterns, thereby summarizing laws and probabilities of winning and losing. Technical analysis divides the market into different time zones of investment opportunities, finding more chances for success.
On the day he sold his house to trade coins, it was raining in Beijing—
When the agent brought people to see the house, he was staring blankly at the K-line on the computer.
The balcony is leaking, drip drip, the buyer pointed at the wall and said this needs to be discounted. He didn’t say anything, just wanted to sign quickly—his U in the account was waiting for him to buy back in.
In two years in the market, he learned many new terms: building a position, escaping the peak, diamond hands. What fascinated him the most was 'faith'. Someone in the group said that without faith, you can’t hold onto coins, and without holding onto coins, you can’t make money. So he started to have faith, believing that Bitcoin would reach one million dollars next year.
The house was sold for six million, all in.
In the first week, it went up four hundred thousand. He calculated that it was more than a lifetime’s retirement fund, so he treated everyone to drinks, drinking until late at night, hugging the toilet and vomiting, mumbling: this is the trend, this is the future.
The balcony is leaking, drip drip, the buyer pointed at the wall and said this needs to be discounted. He didn’t say anything, just wanted to sign quickly—his U in the account was waiting for him to buy back in.
In two years in the market, he learned many new terms: building a position, escaping the peak, diamond hands. What fascinated him the most was 'faith'. Someone in the group said that without faith, you can’t hold onto coins, and without holding onto coins, you can’t make money. So he started to have faith, believing that Bitcoin would reach one million dollars next year.
The house was sold for six million, all in.
In the first week, it went up four hundred thousand. He calculated that it was more than a lifetime’s retirement fund, so he treated everyone to drinks, drinking until late at night, hugging the toilet and vomiting, mumbling: this is the trend, this is the future.
The next key time points for BTC are: April 2nd, April 20th
$BTC 12.6 million USD has peaked, and currently, it has formed a descending midpoint platform that has consolidated for 55 days (rebound high point) + 18 days (breaking new low) = 73 days;
This descending midpoint consolidation period is of reference value for our current consolidation period, as the two consolidation periods should not differ too much.
Thus, based on the known lowest point of 60000 USD occurring on February 6th, if we push forward 55 days, the high point should occur before April 2nd, and if we push forward 73 days, the final change date is approximately around April 20th.
Defense reference: If during the period from April 2nd to April 20th (as the trend line moves upward), if the market breaks below 67000 USD, it would indicate a breakdown. Currently, if the upward trend continues, a new high can only be established during this period. Pay close attention to the market trend around April 20th.
$BTC 12.6 million USD has peaked, and currently, it has formed a descending midpoint platform that has consolidated for 55 days (rebound high point) + 18 days (breaking new low) = 73 days;
This descending midpoint consolidation period is of reference value for our current consolidation period, as the two consolidation periods should not differ too much.
Thus, based on the known lowest point of 60000 USD occurring on February 6th, if we push forward 55 days, the high point should occur before April 2nd, and if we push forward 73 days, the final change date is approximately around April 20th.
Defense reference: If during the period from April 2nd to April 20th (as the trend line moves upward), if the market breaks below 67000 USD, it would indicate a breakdown. Currently, if the upward trend continues, a new high can only be established during this period. Pay close attention to the market trend around April 20th.
State a viewpoint: The bearish factors for BTC have basically been released.
The consensus of the four-year cycle and the historical 'experience' of consecutive crashes triggered by liquidity in 2022:
This allowed expectations to complete the release of bearish factors in a relatively short time (from April 2025 to February 2026).
$BTC directly dropped to the vicinity of the previous high, and then fluctuated around the previous high.
Next, whether the bottom for BTC is 60,000, 50,000, or 40,000... mainly depends on the macro environment and the US stock market.
The consensus of the four-year cycle and the historical 'experience' of consecutive crashes triggered by liquidity in 2022:
This allowed expectations to complete the release of bearish factors in a relatively short time (from April 2025 to February 2026).
$BTC directly dropped to the vicinity of the previous high, and then fluctuated around the previous high.
Next, whether the bottom for BTC is 60,000, 50,000, or 40,000... mainly depends on the macro environment and the US stock market.
Where is the bottom of Bitcoin's bear market in 2026?
Today the financial circle is down across the board:
The market value of gold has evaporated about $2 trillion;
The US stock market has evaporated about $1 trillion;
The A-share market has evaporated about 20 trillion yuan;
Cryptocurrency has evaporated about $50 billion;
⚠️ Calculating at a price of $0.08 per kWh and a 5% mining pool fee, the mainstream computing power - Antminer S21 series has reached the shutdown coin price. Only a few high-end new models are still profitable, with the shutdown coin price at 44,000.
2018: Bottom 3200, mainstream miner S9 shutdown coin price 4000.
2022: Bottom 15000, mainstream miner S19 shutdown coin price 18000.
So the question arises, if we were to seek the sword by carving a boat - in 2026, the mainstream miner S21 shutdown coin price will be 69000, and the bottom of this round of $BTC is at 55000?
The market value of gold has evaporated about $2 trillion;
The US stock market has evaporated about $1 trillion;
The A-share market has evaporated about 20 trillion yuan;
Cryptocurrency has evaporated about $50 billion;
⚠️ Calculating at a price of $0.08 per kWh and a 5% mining pool fee, the mainstream computing power - Antminer S21 series has reached the shutdown coin price. Only a few high-end new models are still profitable, with the shutdown coin price at 44,000.
2018: Bottom 3200, mainstream miner S9 shutdown coin price 4000.
2022: Bottom 15000, mainstream miner S19 shutdown coin price 18000.
So the question arises, if we were to seek the sword by carving a boat - in 2026, the mainstream miner S21 shutdown coin price will be 69000, and the bottom of this round of $BTC is at 55000?
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