Steven_Research
Long-term investor
Founder SR INVEST, holder $BNB
Top 14 independent Researcher at @Binance The Blockchain 100 | 2025
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Thank you @Binance Square Official and the title independent Researcher 2025
Thank you to the bosses @CZ @Yi He @Richard Teng
Thank you to the bosses @Daniel Zou (DZ) 🔶 and Francis, and @Nyan 7
It has been a memorable year 2025 with many emotions related to crypto and Binance!
Made many new friends, effective investments, gained more insights into the industry, and found reliable partners and colleagues!
Let's look forward to 2026 with new forecasts! We will be even more dynamic! Very bullish on Binance! 😍
Happy new year 2026!
Thank you to the bosses @CZ @Yi He @Richard Teng
Thank you to the bosses @Daniel Zou (DZ) 🔶 and Francis, and @Nyan 7
It has been a memorable year 2025 with many emotions related to crypto and Binance!
Made many new friends, effective investments, gained more insights into the industry, and found reliable partners and colleagues!
Let's look forward to 2026 with new forecasts! We will be even more dynamic! Very bullish on Binance! 😍
Happy new year 2026!
The interesting thing about those cycles is witnessing the arrival and departure of generations of investors $BTC
Their movement creates a transformation in the underlying price structure, LTHs RP and STHs RP
The price trends and behaviors of these layers of investors have a reciprocal relationship, being both opposed yet complementary to each other
Through each cycle, they converge and diverge based on each price stage and the behaviors of the layers of investors
Patience is the key
Their movement creates a transformation in the underlying price structure, LTHs RP and STHs RP
The price trends and behaviors of these layers of investors have a reciprocal relationship, being both opposed yet complementary to each other
Through each cycle, they converge and diverge based on each price stage and the behaviors of the layers of investors
Patience is the key
After last night's sweeping, more than 300 million leveraged orders were liquidated.
The market collapsed in a short time – $ETH dropped below $1,940 and $BTC dropped below $65,000, liquidating Machi once again.
The market collapsed in a short time – $ETH dropped below $1,940 and $BTC dropped below $65,000, liquidating Machi once again.
Moody's Analytics raises the probability of an economic recession in the US over the next 12 months to 48.6% (the highest since the 2020 pandemic).
Forecast model: Based on machine learning, previously at around ~49%. Mark Zandi (Chief Economist) commented: “The risk of recession is at an uncomfortably high level and is still rising,” “the recession avoidance path is getting narrower.”
*Main reasons:
- Weak labor market: The US lost 92,000 jobs in February 2026 (outside of healthcare, more than 500,000 jobs lost in the past year).
- Slow growth: GDP in Q4 2025 is only 0.7%.
- Middle East conflict drives oil prices up sharply (Brent ~97 USD/barrel, previously reaching 115 USD).
*Comparison with other entities on Wall Street:
- Goldman Sachs: 30%
- Wilmington Trust: 45%
- EY Parthenon: 40%
- NerdWallet survey: 65% of Americans forecast a recession in the next 12 months.
Forecast model: Based on machine learning, previously at around ~49%. Mark Zandi (Chief Economist) commented: “The risk of recession is at an uncomfortably high level and is still rising,” “the recession avoidance path is getting narrower.”
*Main reasons:
- Weak labor market: The US lost 92,000 jobs in February 2026 (outside of healthcare, more than 500,000 jobs lost in the past year).
- Slow growth: GDP in Q4 2025 is only 0.7%.
- Middle East conflict drives oil prices up sharply (Brent ~97 USD/barrel, previously reaching 115 USD).
*Comparison with other entities on Wall Street:
- Goldman Sachs: 30%
- Wilmington Trust: 45%
- EY Parthenon: 40%
- NerdWallet survey: 65% of Americans forecast a recession in the next 12 months.
DO OIL PRICES AND $BTC HAVE A RELATIONSHIP?
- This article from Binance Research delves into whether the relationship between BTC and crude oil prices is stable.
- After the launch of the spot BTC ETF, how did BTC react to the macro shock?
1. The relationship between
and crude oil prices?
- The report utilized weekly data from 2016–2026 with complex mathematical models such as DCC-GARCH (dynamic correlation) and Granger Causality Testing.
- The results show that BTC and crude oil often operate as two independent entities.
- After the launch of the spot BTC ETF, how did BTC react to the macro shock?
1. The relationship between
and crude oil prices?
- The report utilized weekly data from 2016–2026 with complex mathematical models such as DCC-GARCH (dynamic correlation) and Granger Causality Testing.
- The results show that BTC and crude oil often operate as two independent entities.
Approximately 12.5% of crypto protocols that once did over $10M in monthly fees and launched a token are dead (no current activity). In contrast, only 8.3% of those with no token are dead
Goldman Sachs has raised the probability of a U.S. economic recession in the next 12 months to 30% (up 5 percentage points from the previous level of 25%)
1. The main reasons Goldman Sachs cites:
- Oil and gas prices have surged (energy price shock) due to the prolonged Middle Eastern conflict (U.S. - Iran), disrupting energy flow through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Financial conditions are tightening.
- The supportive effect of President Trump's major tax law (passed last summer) is gradually diminishing.
2. Other economic forecasts that Goldman Sachs updated at the same time: The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.6% by the end of 2026.
- U.S. GDP growth: still below trend in the second half of 2026, with an annual growth rate forecast of only 1.25%-1.75%.
- The Fed is still expected to cut interest rates in September and December 2026.
=> Global impact: higher energy prices will push inflation up and reduce global GDP growth by about 0.4 percentage points (potentially doubling or tripling in the worst-case scenario).
3. Some context
- Previously (around 12/3/2026), Goldman Sachs raised the probability from 20% to 25% due to weak February job reports (loss of 92,000 jobs) and rising oil prices due to the Iran war.
- Currently, the 30% level falls within Wall Street's consensus (25-35%). This is not a certain recession forecast (the baseline probability remains at 70% of avoiding it), but it indicates that the risk of a downturn is clearly increasing.
1. The main reasons Goldman Sachs cites:
- Oil and gas prices have surged (energy price shock) due to the prolonged Middle Eastern conflict (U.S. - Iran), disrupting energy flow through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Financial conditions are tightening.
- The supportive effect of President Trump's major tax law (passed last summer) is gradually diminishing.
2. Other economic forecasts that Goldman Sachs updated at the same time: The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.6% by the end of 2026.
- U.S. GDP growth: still below trend in the second half of 2026, with an annual growth rate forecast of only 1.25%-1.75%.
- The Fed is still expected to cut interest rates in September and December 2026.
=> Global impact: higher energy prices will push inflation up and reduce global GDP growth by about 0.4 percentage points (potentially doubling or tripling in the worst-case scenario).
3. Some context
- Previously (around 12/3/2026), Goldman Sachs raised the probability from 20% to 25% due to weak February job reports (loss of 92,000 jobs) and rising oil prices due to the Iran war.
- Currently, the 30% level falls within Wall Street's consensus (25-35%). This is not a certain recession forecast (the baseline probability remains at 70% of avoiding it), but it indicates that the risk of a downturn is clearly increasing.
the stock $CRCL (Circle Internet Group - issuer of USDC) fell sharply yesterday by ~18-19% due to information from the latest draft / leaked text of the CLARITY Act.
The latest draft of the CLARITY Act (currently being negotiated in the US Senate) completely prohibits passive yield/rewards on stablecoin balances (not allowing interest/bonuses just for holding USDC). Only activity-based rewards are permitted (related to transactions, transfers, using the platform).
The latest draft of the CLARITY Act (currently being negotiated in the US Senate) completely prohibits passive yield/rewards on stablecoin balances (not allowing interest/bonuses just for holding USDC). Only activity-based rewards are permitted (related to transactions, transfers, using the platform).
WILL THE BALANCER PROTOCOL STOP OPERATING?
Fernando Martinelli – the co-founder of the Balancer protocol – has officially announced the decision to gradually wind down the operations of Balancer Labs.
- Once one of the leading Defi protocols, it now faces cessation of operations due to lingering legal risks following the major hack of 128 million USD that occurred in November 2025. Specifically:
1. Balancer Labs (the development company) will gradually wind down.
- The main reason is the prolonged legal risks stemming from the major hack in November 2025 (losing over 128 million USD), and the company can no longer earn enough money to sustain itself.
- The Balancer protocol will still operate but will transition to a DAO + Foundation model (fully managed by the community).
2. Major changes soon to be voted on (BIP)
- Halting the issuance of new BAL (stopping dilution).
- All transaction fees will be redirected to the DAO treasury (increasing income for the community).
- Buy back and burn $BAL to support the price.
- Reduce the team size, significantly cutting costs (only 12 people remaining, budget reduced by 34%).
=> The DAO will save money, runway extended ~9 years, the protocol will focus on good products (reCLAMM, stable pools...).
3. Summary
- Currently, the Balancer protocol is still operational with a total TVL of approximately 158 million USD, generating over 1 million USD in transaction fees annually.
- The Balancer protocol will not cease operations or shut down completely. Instead, it will shift to a new management model controlled by the community through DAO + Foundation and an independent service provider.
- What are your thoughts? Has Balancer reached its "end" yet?
Fernando Martinelli – the co-founder of the Balancer protocol – has officially announced the decision to gradually wind down the operations of Balancer Labs.
- Once one of the leading Defi protocols, it now faces cessation of operations due to lingering legal risks following the major hack of 128 million USD that occurred in November 2025. Specifically:
1. Balancer Labs (the development company) will gradually wind down.
- The main reason is the prolonged legal risks stemming from the major hack in November 2025 (losing over 128 million USD), and the company can no longer earn enough money to sustain itself.
- The Balancer protocol will still operate but will transition to a DAO + Foundation model (fully managed by the community).
2. Major changes soon to be voted on (BIP)
- Halting the issuance of new BAL (stopping dilution).
- All transaction fees will be redirected to the DAO treasury (increasing income for the community).
- Buy back and burn $BAL to support the price.
- Reduce the team size, significantly cutting costs (only 12 people remaining, budget reduced by 34%).
=> The DAO will save money, runway extended ~9 years, the protocol will focus on good products (reCLAMM, stable pools...).
3. Summary
- Currently, the Balancer protocol is still operational with a total TVL of approximately 158 million USD, generating over 1 million USD in transaction fees annually.
- The Balancer protocol will not cease operations or shut down completely. Instead, it will shift to a new management model controlled by the community through DAO + Foundation and an independent service provider.
- What are your thoughts? Has Balancer reached its "end" yet?
Summary of the Resolv exploit incident this morning (03/22/2026):
- Incident: Hacker only deposited ~100-200k $USDC but exploited a minting vulnerability (signer role) in the contract, illegally minting ~80 million $USR unbacked (without backing assets).
- Consequences: Strong dump causing serious depeg (USR dropped ~74%, reaching ~0.25 USD). Hacker withdrew ~23-25M USD (mainly $ETH). The token $RESOLV also dumped.
- Team's response: Resolv Labs paused the entire protocol immediately, the collateral pool remains intact at 100% (not drained). Currently investigating, the team advises everyone to avoid trading/interacting with USR temporarily.
- Incident: Hacker only deposited ~100-200k $USDC but exploited a minting vulnerability (signer role) in the contract, illegally minting ~80 million $USR unbacked (without backing assets).
- Consequences: Strong dump causing serious depeg (USR dropped ~74%, reaching ~0.25 USD). Hacker withdrew ~23-25M USD (mainly $ETH). The token $RESOLV also dumped.
- Team's response: Resolv Labs paused the entire protocol immediately, the collateral pool remains intact at 100% (not drained). Currently investigating, the team advises everyone to avoid trading/interacting with USR temporarily.
REPORT ON BIG MINERS $BTC Q1/2026
The largest miners
are separating into two groups, the strategic differentiation of these groups and Bitcoin's mining capabilities also make us reflect a bit, please refer, everyone
1. Overview of Hashrate and Mining Capacity
- The total mining capacity of the top 5 companies has reached 251 EH/s, marking an 18% growth compared to the previous quarter.
- Bitdeer (BTDR) is currently the leader in self-mining hashrate with 68 EH/s, thanks to the advantage of technology autonomy with the SEALMINER chip line (this line achieves mining efficiency
are separating into two groups, the strategic differentiation of these groups and Bitcoin's mining capabilities also make us reflect a bit, please refer, everyone
1. Overview of Hashrate and Mining Capacity
- The total mining capacity of the top 5 companies has reached 251 EH/s, marking an 18% growth compared to the previous quarter.
- Bitdeer (BTDR) is currently the leader in self-mining hashrate with 68 EH/s, thanks to the advantage of technology autonomy with the SEALMINER chip line (this line achieves mining efficiency
Hanoi identifies key economic sectors from Blockchain, digital assets, cryptocurrency 🇻🇳
According to the newly issued plan for technological innovation in the key economic sectors of Hanoi by 2035 on March 16, Hanoi identifies the digital technology industry as one of the three key economic sectors.
Among them, the core technologies that can create breakthroughs for key economic sectors include Blockchain technology, and products: Digital assets, digital currency, cryptocurrency; Blockchain network infrastructure; Source tracing systems.
Along with Blockchain, there are other core technologies such as: Artificial intelligence, digital twins, virtual/augmented reality; Cloud computing technology, quantum, big data; Robotics and automation technology; Aerospace technology.
Source: Tien Phong Newspaper
According to the newly issued plan for technological innovation in the key economic sectors of Hanoi by 2035 on March 16, Hanoi identifies the digital technology industry as one of the three key economic sectors.
Among them, the core technologies that can create breakthroughs for key economic sectors include Blockchain technology, and products: Digital assets, digital currency, cryptocurrency; Blockchain network infrastructure; Source tracing systems.
Along with Blockchain, there are other core technologies such as: Artificial intelligence, digital twins, virtual/augmented reality; Cloud computing technology, quantum, big data; Robotics and automation technology; Aerospace technology.
Source: Tien Phong Newspaper
AN OVERVIEW OF TRADFI IN CRYPTO - A RARE SPOTLIGHT OF THE MARKET
According to CoinMarketCap (as of March 16, 2026), Binance leads the market with perpetual trading volumes of gold and silver in 24 hours of 851 million USD and 988 million USD respectively - nearly 15 times and 5.2 times higher than the next crypto platform.
=> Gold and silver dominate, reflecting strong demand from TradFi traders using the crypto platform to access the market 24/7 even when traditional markets are closed.
*The accumulated trading volume has exceeded 153 billion USD with more than 114 million orders.
- Investors can access precious metals (gold, silver, copper, palladium, platinum) and major stocks ($AMZN , COIN, HOOD, INTC, $MSTR , $PLTR , TSLA) => all can be traded 24/7 on a single platform.
*Tokenized Stocks: The market for tokenized stocks has recently surpassed 1 billion USD, with Ondo and xStocks leading this explosive growth (as of March 2026), with potential projected to exceed 1 trillion USD as organizations adopt it more widely in the future.
According to CoinMarketCap (as of March 16, 2026), Binance leads the market with perpetual trading volumes of gold and silver in 24 hours of 851 million USD and 988 million USD respectively - nearly 15 times and 5.2 times higher than the next crypto platform.
=> Gold and silver dominate, reflecting strong demand from TradFi traders using the crypto platform to access the market 24/7 even when traditional markets are closed.
*The accumulated trading volume has exceeded 153 billion USD with more than 114 million orders.
- Investors can access precious metals (gold, silver, copper, palladium, platinum) and major stocks ($AMZN , COIN, HOOD, INTC, $MSTR , $PLTR , TSLA) => all can be traded 24/7 on a single platform.
*Tokenized Stocks: The market for tokenized stocks has recently surpassed 1 billion USD, with Ondo and xStocks leading this explosive growth (as of March 2026), with potential projected to exceed 1 trillion USD as organizations adopt it more widely in the future.
SMART EXIT - OPTIMIZATION SOLUTION FOR LIQUIDITY PROVISION EXIT POINT
In DeFi, providing liquidity (Liquidity Provision - LP) is often seen as a profit optimization problem based on transaction fees.
=> However, the biggest challenge is not in depositing capital but in withdrawing capital (Exit). An inaccurate exit strategy can cause LPs to face significant impermanent losses or miss opportunities for capital reallocation.
has introduced Smart Exit, a tool based on the Intent-based model (execution according to intent), aimed at solving the problem of position management automatically and disciplined. I will analyze this model in more detail for you to refer to for your LP strategy:
=> However, the biggest challenge is not in depositing capital but in withdrawing capital (Exit). An inaccurate exit strategy can cause LPs to face significant impermanent losses or miss opportunities for capital reallocation.
has introduced Smart Exit, a tool based on the Intent-based model (execution according to intent), aimed at solving the problem of position management automatically and disciplined. I will analyze this model in more detail for you to refer to for your LP strategy:
THE DEFI DATA IS CLEARLY DECLINING
It can be seen that the market is undergoing a strong "cleansing" phase after the peak in October 2025
- The crypto lending market is shrinking. Total deposits have decreased from 125 billion USD to 79.6 billion USD, equivalent to a decrease of 36%.
1. The sharp decline in the Lending sector
*This decline is mainly concentrated in 5 major protocols, accounting for up to 40 billion USD of the total 45 billion USD lost:
- Aave: The steepest decline with 27.6 billion USD (from ~75 billion to ~47.4 billion USD).
- Spark: A decrease of 5.4 billion USD (from ~11 billion to ~5.6 billion USD).
- Euler: A decrease of 2.6 billion USD (from ~4 billion to ~1.4 billion USD).
- Fluid: A decrease of 2.4 billion USD (from ~3.5 billion to ~1.1 billion USD).
- Compound: A decrease of 2.0 billion USD (from ~4.5 billion to ~2.5 billion USD).
- Other protocols: A total decrease of about 5.4 billion USD.
2. Comparison of DeFi indicators (October 2025 vs. March 2026)
- Total TVL of the entire DeFi industry: Decreased from 171 billion USD to 96 billion USD (a decrease of 44%).
- Total Lending deposits: Decreased from 125 billion USD to 79.6 billion USD (a decrease of 36%).
- Market capitalization of Stablecoins: Slightly increased from 314 billion USD to 316 billion USD (an increase of 0.6%).
- Monthly DEX trading volume: Sharply decreased from 613 billion USD to about 207 billion USD (a decrease of 66%).
3. Important additional information
- TVL Restaking: Decreased from about 24 billion USD at the beginning of 2025 to 11.8 billion USD currently.
- EigenLayer: Currently holds only about 9 billion USD in TVL.
- TVL Liquid Staking: Decreased by 50% from 80 billion USD to about ~40 billion USD currently.
- Ethereum's market share: Still maintains a leading position, accounting for 50-60% of the total TVL of the entire ecosystem.
It can be seen that the market is undergoing a strong "cleansing" phase after the peak in October 2025
- The crypto lending market is shrinking. Total deposits have decreased from 125 billion USD to 79.6 billion USD, equivalent to a decrease of 36%.
1. The sharp decline in the Lending sector
*This decline is mainly concentrated in 5 major protocols, accounting for up to 40 billion USD of the total 45 billion USD lost:
- Aave: The steepest decline with 27.6 billion USD (from ~75 billion to ~47.4 billion USD).
- Spark: A decrease of 5.4 billion USD (from ~11 billion to ~5.6 billion USD).
- Euler: A decrease of 2.6 billion USD (from ~4 billion to ~1.4 billion USD).
- Fluid: A decrease of 2.4 billion USD (from ~3.5 billion to ~1.1 billion USD).
- Compound: A decrease of 2.0 billion USD (from ~4.5 billion to ~2.5 billion USD).
- Other protocols: A total decrease of about 5.4 billion USD.
2. Comparison of DeFi indicators (October 2025 vs. March 2026)
- Total TVL of the entire DeFi industry: Decreased from 171 billion USD to 96 billion USD (a decrease of 44%).
- Total Lending deposits: Decreased from 125 billion USD to 79.6 billion USD (a decrease of 36%).
- Market capitalization of Stablecoins: Slightly increased from 314 billion USD to 316 billion USD (an increase of 0.6%).
- Monthly DEX trading volume: Sharply decreased from 613 billion USD to about 207 billion USD (a decrease of 66%).
3. Important additional information
- TVL Restaking: Decreased from about 24 billion USD at the beginning of 2025 to 11.8 billion USD currently.
- EigenLayer: Currently holds only about 9 billion USD in TVL.
- TVL Liquid Staking: Decreased by 50% from 80 billion USD to about ~40 billion USD currently.
- Ethereum's market share: Still maintains a leading position, accounting for 50-60% of the total TVL of the entire ecosystem.
A TRADER LOST NEARLY 50 MILLION USD DUE TO SLIPPAGE
A user attempted to swap 50 million $USDT for $AAVE on Cowswap but encountered extremely high slippage (around 99.9%), resulting in receiving only a small amount of AAVE, estimated to be worth only about 36,200 USD
=> This person lost nearly all of their 50M$ immediately
- This has been compared to "losing 50M in an instant" and is believed to be due to MEV (Miner Extractable Value) or bots taking advantage.
- Aave's founder, Stani Kulechov, confirmed that the interface had warned of slippage and requested further confirmation, but the trader still proceeded with the transaction.
=> Aave has committed to refunding approximately 600,000 USD in transaction fees to the affected users, considering this a goodwill gesture even though slippage is a normal market risk.
=> Stani Kulechov emphasized that the system functioned correctly by providing a warning, and does not consider this a technical fault of the protocol, but rather a user negligence.
A user attempted to swap 50 million $USDT for $AAVE on Cowswap but encountered extremely high slippage (around 99.9%), resulting in receiving only a small amount of AAVE, estimated to be worth only about 36,200 USD
=> This person lost nearly all of their 50M$ immediately
- This has been compared to "losing 50M in an instant" and is believed to be due to MEV (Miner Extractable Value) or bots taking advantage.
- Aave's founder, Stani Kulechov, confirmed that the interface had warned of slippage and requested further confirmation, but the trader still proceeded with the transaction.
=> Aave has committed to refunding approximately 600,000 USD in transaction fees to the affected users, considering this a goodwill gesture even though slippage is a normal market risk.
=> Stani Kulechov emphasized that the system functioned correctly by providing a warning, and does not consider this a technical fault of the protocol, but rather a user negligence.
AI AGENT ROME AUTONOMOUSLY MINING CRYPTOCURRENCY? - RELATED TO ALIBABA
An AI agent has autonomously performed "rebellious" actions, including illegally mining cryptocurrency during its training process.
1. The entity responsible for the incident
- This AI system is called ROME, an autonomous AI agent developed by research teams affiliated with Alibaba's AI ecosystem.
- ROME is designed not only to converse but also to interact with tools, software environments, and execute system commands to complete tasks.
1. The entity responsible for the incident
- This AI system is called ROME, an autonomous AI agent developed by research teams affiliated with Alibaba's AI ecosystem.
- ROME is designed not only to converse but also to interact with tools, software environments, and execute system commands to complete tasks.
Gold and silver, currently heading towards a price increase in oil, and then it will be the turn of various foodstuffs (I have analyzed this in the previous article)
If this situation continues for a long time, we will have to face a synchronized global price increase, of course high inflation is unavoidable
Anyone who has been following the market for many years will see that consumer goods, once increased in price, are very hard to decrease, just like we can see the prices of gold and silver decrease over a certain period, but the price of a bowl of pho or a loaf of bread that has increased will be very hard to decrease
- We will have to face a longer-term phase of price increases, which will directly affect our wallets in the future
If this situation continues for a long time, we will have to face a synchronized global price increase, of course high inflation is unavoidable
Anyone who has been following the market for many years will see that consumer goods, once increased in price, are very hard to decrease, just like we can see the prices of gold and silver decrease over a certain period, but the price of a bowl of pho or a loaf of bread that has increased will be very hard to decrease
- We will have to face a longer-term phase of price increases, which will directly affect our wallets in the future
On March 3, 2026, South Korea's KOSPI benchmark index fell by 7.24%, marking the worst one-day decline in 19 months and wiping out approximately 390 trillion won (about 270 billion USD) in market value.
This sharp decline triggered a sell circuit breaker (also known as "sidecar") by the Korea Exchange (KRX), temporarily halting program trading for five minutes when the KOSPI 200 futures index dropped more than 5% (specifically 5.09% to 890.05).
The sidecar is designed to control panic selling and volatility, and this is the first activation since January 6, 2026.
This sharp decline triggered a sell circuit breaker (also known as "sidecar") by the Korea Exchange (KRX), temporarily halting program trading for five minutes when the KOSPI 200 futures index dropped more than 5% (specifically 5.09% to 890.05).
The sidecar is designed to control panic selling and volatility, and this is the first activation since January 6, 2026.
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