MR MALIK

🌍【Next Week's Macroeconomic Storm: Geopolitical + Non-Farm Double Test】
Against the backdrop of repeated tariffs by Trump and escalating geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran, the market is caught in a dual pull of 'policy uncertainty + risk aversion sentiment.'
Next week, the real test arrives —
📌 Key data is coming in thick and fast:
Monday: U.S. Manufacturing PMI (S&P Global & ISM)
Wednesday: ADP Employment Numbers
Thursday: Federal Reserve Beige Book + Initial Jobless Claims
Friday: Unemployment Rate + Non-Farm Employment + Retail Sales
Employment is the core anchor of the current macro narrative.
If employment is strong → rate cut expectations are delayed → risk assets are under pressure
If employment is weak → recession worries → similarly bearish for risk assets
The technology and AI sectors are also cooling down.
The NASDAQ Composite has not reached a new high for four consecutive months.
The S&P 500 has just experienced its worst monthly performance since March of last year.
What does this mean?
The long-standing AI narrative, which has driven U.S. stock growth, is now being questioned for its 'profit realization ability.'
Capital is shifting from storytelling to looking at balance sheets.
📉 When U.S. stocks oscillate at high levels,
📉 When AI expectations cool down,
📉 When geopolitical conflicts raise risk aversion demand,
the cryptocurrency market often amplifies volatility simultaneously.
In the short term, watch sentiment,
In the medium term, watch liquidity,
In the long term, watch structure.
At this cyclical turning point:
✔ Control positions
✔ Watch the dollar and U.S. Treasuries
✔ Keep an eye on non-farm employment and the unemployment rate
✔ Stay away from chasing emotional gains
The market will not collapse out of panic,
but it will pay the price for blind optimism.
In the new cycle, it’s not about courage, but judgment.
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