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Today's pancake fluctuations, in one sentence: "There's no stock at home, institutions are frantically buying, short sellers are getting crushed."
1. Why is the fluctuation so large?
• Spot market drying up: Exchange BTC inventory is at its lowest level in 2024, just a small purchase and the price skyrockets.
• Institutional retaliatory buying: ETFs turned from a 5-week decline to a single-day frenzy, sucking in over $500 million, with BlackRock (IBIT) leading the charge.
• Double whammy: $270 million in liquidations in 24 hours, first washing out high-leverage long positions, then forcing short sellers to stop-loss, making a profit on both sides.
2. Core indicators (USD)
• Resistance level: $68,000 (Tonight's U.S. stock market opening will determine the outcome).
• Support level: $65,700 (If it pulls back and doesn't break, it's strong).
• Whale movements: Continually withdrawing from exchanges to lock positions, with very low short-term selling pressure.
One sentence advice: Don't open high leverage at halfway up the mountain, wait for the U.S. stock market opening at 22:30 to see if $68,000 can hold steady.

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To be honest, today (March 3rd) the market really made a lot of people breathe a sigh of relief. With the geopolitical situation heating up "lightning fast," BTC also performed well, directly bouncing back from 63,000 to around 68,000, effectively regaining all the previous losses.

But to be frank, although the current rebound is strong, I feel there’s no need to rush into chasing long positions.

Currently, Bitcoin is still locked in a large box between 63,000 and 72,000, "drawing a door." Since we were able to buy near 63,000 before, why should we pick up at such an awkward position around 67,000? You know what I mean?

The logic is simple: the resistance here is actually very thick. Rather than fantasizing about breaking through 100,000 in one go, it’s better to take advantage of this rebound and take profits on the spot purchases made yesterday. My personal strategy is to place low-leverage short orders in batches within the range of 70,000 - 72,000, focusing on stability.

Although the rebound is lively now, the pressure from the larger trend still exists. Even if temporarily stuck, holding low-leverage while waiting for it to drop back is better than standing guard at high positions. I’m actually more worried it won’t go up, leaving me unable to enjoy a big profit from this short position...

Impact on BTC: In the short term, the emotional release after the geopolitical crisis has passed halfway, and the market will return to the game of macro data. If 72,000 cannot stabilize for a long time, then this rebound might just be a "trap for the bulls" before the next pullback.

Everyone, is it time to take profits, or continue with the strategy? Let me know your bottom line in the comments.
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