土豆谈币

The strength of market fluctuations and washouts has been quite intense
Many people have already been shaken out
Either blown up
Or acting cautiously
Binance now also allows adding friends
If you have questions, information, or want to follow along, come on over

Come to the Binance chat collection

Seize future layout opportunities

Real-time sharing of swing and long-term strategies!
#BNB走势

现在的币圈，说实话，冷到骨子里了。

meme币一波比一波弱，以前靠情绪就能拉飞，现在连大家共识都难凑起来。山寨VC币更没人接盘，故事讲得再好，市场也不买账。还能涨的，基本就是那些被强控盘、强运营的项目，在存量资金里来回博弈。

更有意思的是，交易所的画风也变了，不再只是币圈自己卷自己，开始拼命往外扩。美股、石油、黄金这些传统资产都搬上来了，甚至美股合约都在推。

这其实说明一个问题：币圈自己的故事越来越没吸引力，钱正往更确定的资产那边跑。

与此同时，AI工具却在疯狂进化。内容生成、量化分析、自动交易、信息筛选，效率被放大到极致。以前靠信息差、手速、情绪赚钱的时代，正在被技术一点点抹平。

以后不是没机会，而是门槛变高了：你要么更懂资金和结构，要么更会用工具放大自己。没有情绪红利撑着的市场，本质上就是一场“人+机器”的博弈。

币圈之路，道阻且长

过去的亏损已成历史，重要的是面向未来，理性规划。无论是仓位优化、调整策略，还是设定合理目标，我都希望大家能摆脱目前的死循环，走上正轨！

$LDO At that time, it was the leader in Ethereum's liquid staking, solving the problem of funds being locked after staking with stETH, capturing more than 30% of the market share at its peak, and was quite glorious.

So what happened? Now the coin price has fallen from its peak to around $0.3, all moving averages are dead crossed, trading volume has disappeared, and it is being heavily burdened by the three mountains of bear market, competitors, and declining yields.

Don't dwell on past glory; there’s no hope in the short term, so it's better to withdraw early.

$UXLINK This is completely over! OKX has officially announced the delisting of USD trading pairs on April 3rd, and USDT trading pairs on April 6th. Now even the deposits have stopped, and liquidity is about to dry up.

On-chain data shows that the hacker is still continuously selling the ETH stolen earlier, with the sold coins worth 11.8 million dollars, and the key point is that they are still dumping more. Additionally, on April 13th, there will be another wave of tokens unlocking, and the project's reputation has been completely destroyed after the hacking incident, with the team doing little, and traffic has basically cooled down, making the selling pressure impossible to stop.

The exchange delisting, the hacker continuously dumping, and large unlocks, these three fatal bearish factors are compounded, making it highly likely that this coin will go to zero. Don't hold any hopes of picking the bottom; if you have any, hurry and sell, and if you haven't bought, just blacklist it!

$ONT is focused on distributed identity and data privacy, with the core products being ONT ID and DDXF, primarily allowing users to have control over their identity and data.

Previously, there was a surge driven by community expectations, and after a brief pullback, it surged strongly again. Currently, the funding rate for 1 hour is -0.3%, and the cost of short positions is not low. This surge has been quite strong, and it shouldn't reverse that quickly in the short term; there is still room for upward movement, with the first target being in the range of 0.07-0.073.

Now is not a good time to short, as it may easily lead to being “slapped in the face” by the market continuing to rise. It’s best to wait for a clear downward trend to emerge before cautiously positioning short orders.

The former AI industry leader $WLD , rose from 0.97 to 11.9, with dozens of times increase directly boosting emotions, countless retail investors rushed in above 10 dollars to take over. At that time, it was not a worthless coin; it had global first-tier cities offline iris collection, funding for poor children, and the founder of OpenAI endorsing it, with top narratives all filled up. And the result? It dropped 99% from its peak.

The current AI leader $TAO indeed has a strong narrative: the founder of Nvidia is optimistic, sub-network speculation, a total supply of 21 million, and the most decentralized AI. When the price was below 200, I was optimistic about it; at that time, most people thought it was a worthless coin; now that it has risen, everyone thinks it is a valuable coin.

My view is very clear: if you have bought it before, just hold on; if you haven't bought it, don't chase it. This whole year has been a bear market. Looking forward to TAO, there will still be opportunities to get in at lower levels in the second half of the year. Stay patient, and when the time is right, I will give a prompt.

In the cryptocurrency world, project teams often exploit investors with a simple tactic: dig a pit before a big rise and go crazy before a big drop.

Before a rise, there will definitely be a sharp drop first, scaring investors enough in a short time, and those who can't hold on will be washed out. Once the washout is almost done, the project team will start to rapidly increase the price.

Conversely, before a big drop, there will be a sharp rise first, accompanied by positive news, making investors feel that the market is coming, and they rush in to buy at a high price. At this time, the project team just sells off their goods, leaving investors to stand guard. $XRP

In my personal judgment, the next bull market reaching $150,000 is not a big issue, but replicating the kind of multi-fold surges from the past will be very difficult. $BTC

The core of this round is actually compliance, as Bitcoin is gradually being accepted by the mainstream financial system. Institutions and some governments only recognize Bitcoin and are unwilling to touch other altcoins, so this round is basically Bitcoin strengthening on its own, while even Ethereum's performance has been average. $ETH

However, because of compliance, Bitcoin has passed its wild growth phase, the market has grown larger, and the explosive power of incremental funds has naturally decreased. Most of the institutions that should have entered have already done so, and it is unrealistic to expect retail investors to push prices to ridiculous levels. Therefore, I believe that returning to $100,000 is a cyclical repair, but achieving the super growth rates of the past is very difficult.

A bigger problem is that the industry environment is becoming increasingly chaotic, with scammers and meme coins severely harvesting profits, which will weaken the entire circle's ability to attract new funds. If there is no new actual value output, it is not a good thing for Bitcoin in the long run.

So I am more concerned about whether there will be a "new narrative" in the next round. In this regard, I am more optimistic about Ethereum. Over the past few years, it has optimized speed and transaction fees without significantly sacrificing decentralization, and advancements in layer 2 networks, on-chain finance, and asset tokenization are all underway, with practicality beginning to show.

Today's Ethereum lacks infrastructure but needs a spark point. As long as a certain hotspot ignites market sentiment, it could very well become the protagonist of the next bull market. Simply put, Bitcoin is more stable, but the variable that determines the height may lie with Ethereum.

A hard resistance has emptied $STG , a small level correction has begun.
Wait for a wave of acceleration, add a bit at 0.268, and withdraw when it approaches the previous high of the small level around 0.28.

In marketing, I truly admire Brother Sun.

At this dinner hosted by President Chuan, he indeed secured the top spot once again. He boldly dined with the president as the largest holder of the President Chuan meme coin. This maneuver is simply textbook-level traffic harvesting.

Looking back at his previous “achievements” makes it clear:

Spent $4.57 million to win a lunch with Buffett, causing a stir across the internet;

Spent $6.2 million to buy that banana stuck to the wall with tape, making the "most expensive banana" trend on social media;

This time he heavily invested in the Trump coin $TRUMP, easily climbing to the top spot, and arranging the persona of being “Trump's number one fan” very clearly.

While others are still figuring out how to ride the wave of trends, Brother Sun has already turned the trend into his own stage. Whether it’s lunch, a banana, or a presidential dinner, he always manages to spend a sum of money to create a loud advertisement, bringing the topic level to the maximum.

I’m impressed, he is truly a marketing genius.

This thing called siren is really exciting, with fluctuations of one or two times up and down, playing this can easily be too much for the heart.

$STG Current Price 0.266 Short
Stop Loss 0.3
Target at least around 0.2

Approaching the 4-hour strong resistance level, high probability it won't break through.

Comparison of liquidity between SOL chain and BSC chain
This gap is still quite large
Why do I feel that there are very few people from the country playing on the SOL chain now?
Am I stuck in an information cocoon?
Or is it really like this?
What do you think?

$STG This coin is probably something no one dares to short.

The people at the top are all shouting 666

The people below look at them as if they are looking at cave dwellers.

$XNY After this wave has risen by 35%, the 4-hour RSI has already reached the overbought zone, and the price is also close to the previous high. The key point is that the volume has not kept up; the price rises while the volume shrinks, and the divergence is quite obvious. Short-term profit-taking should be considered, as the risk of a pullback is not small.

Therefore, a short position can be made around 0.0075, with a target of 0.0058 and a stop loss set at 0.008.

$RIVER This coin truly lacks martial virtue; when it drops, it's like falling off a building, continuously going down without any rebounds; when it rises, it surges fiercely, looking particularly tempting.

But the more tempting it is, the easier it is to become a bag holder; most people buy in at high prices, only to get stuck halfway up the mountain. It does have cross-chain liquidity and a solid narrative as a stablecoin, so funds keep coming back to trade. However, because of this, the control over the market is particularly heavy, pushing up and then crashing down, washing out again, specifically to harvest emotions.

Just when you think it's about to take off, it gives you a deep pullback; when you think it can't drop any further, it can still take another dive. It's all about human nature. Now the trend has completely weakened, so everyone should just observe and not easily jump in.

The top of a bear market usually has a very obvious signal: a sudden sharp drop in a short period of time, like a 'guillotine' type of trend. The drop is both deep and fast, completely different from a normal correction, indicating that sentiment and liquidity are concentrating on moving outwards.

For example, Bitcoin dropped $20,000 in just one day on October 11th, which is this kind of pattern. Even if there is a rebound later, it is basically a technical repair, making it hard to reverse directly. $BTC

Looking at gold and silver, gold fell from 5650 to 4463 in just five days; silver was even more dramatic, dropping from 121 to 64, directly halving in a week. Recently, gold fell from 5462 all the way down to 4154, and silver dropped from 97 to 61, with gold's weekly chart showing an M top formation. $ETH

So when such an extreme sharp drop occurs, one must be cautious about the subsequent rebound, and not impulsively consider it the start of a new round of increases. From this perspective, gold and silver may indeed have peaked. However, gold has a longer selling cycle, and even if it is trapped, there should still be opportunities to rebound to around 4800 to exit.