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Second victory of the day, 4863→4855, not much space, better than nothing!

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4837→4858, a wave of 21 typical stable profits of 10,000!

Yesterday, the spot gold market experienced a significant plunge, with international gold prices quickly dropping from around the $5000 mark, reaching a low of $4803, with a daily decline of over 3.7%. The previous oscillating pattern was completely broken, and the bullish trend sharply reversed, with bears dominating the market, leading to significant losses for many investors holding positions.

The core negative factors driving this round of sharp decline are concentrated on the Federal Reserve's policy direction: the Fed maintained interest rates as expected while releasing hawkish signals, significantly delaying market expectations for interest rate cuts, directly boosting the US dollar index and US Treasury yields to strengthen in unison. As a non-yielding asset, gold's safe-haven value and attractiveness for asset allocation have significantly cooled, becoming the core catalyst for this round of rapid decline in gold prices. Coupled with strong performance in US economic data, this further solidifies the Fed's hawkish tone, continuously applying pressure on gold prices, and currently, there are no effective positive factors to support a stabilization rebound in gold prices.

From a technical perspective, gold prices have continuously broken through multiple short-term moving averages such as the 5-day and 10-day, with the moving average system showing a bearish arrangement, officially opening a downward channel; the MACD indicator shows a death cross diverging downward, with green bars continually increasing, indicating sufficient bearish momentum. Although the KDJ indicator has entered the oversold area, there may be a slight rebound repair demand in the short term, but the overall downward trend has basically been established, and after a rebound, a continuation of the downward trend is highly probable. Investors are reminded not to blindly bottom fish, to strictly implement risk control, and to patiently wait for a clear stabilization signal from the market.

Gold trading reference

- If the $4805 level holds, one can take light long positions in the 4805-4810 range, targeting 4860-4880.

- Near the 4875-4880 area, consider short positions, with targets below at 4820-4805, adjusting targets as necessary if the levels are broken.

Perfect entry, the rebound gives you the opportunity to enter a short position, three waves harvested 18,000, gaining over ninety typical spaces!

A good start, taking advantage of the situation to break through 5000, decisively seizing the opportunity to enter 🈳, securing 1k2, landing steadily

Gold currently continues the weak oscillation pattern since early morning, with prices showing a slight rebound after reaching a low of 4973, but the rebound strength is weak, repeatedly consolidating around the 5000 mark. This is a technical correction after a decline and not a trend reversal; the overall situation still maintains a weak oscillation.
The current gold trend is mainly influenced by market interest rate expectations, as previous easing expectations gradually recede, and the US dollar and US Treasury yields remain strong, continuously suppressing gold prices. At the same time, the previous high positions have seen profit-taking, coupled with a weekly adjustment pattern, resulting in insufficient bullish momentum for gold.
From a short-term trading range perspective, there is no clear unilateral direction for gold, maintaining an oscillation trend within a range. Key support below is focused on 4950, which is an important support level recently; if it effectively breaks down, gold prices will further open up downward space. The key resistance above is seen at 5080; only by stabilizing at this position can the short-term weak pattern hope to improve.
The current trend mainly follows a range oscillation approach, with opportunities to participate in rebounds when testing support. High short positions are only suitable for light positions in the short term; blindly chasing positions is not recommended. It is essential to pay close attention to subsequent important economic data and policy-related speeches. Before key data is released, gold is likely to continue the current weak oscillation rhythm, strictly relying on key support and resistance levels to control the rhythm and manage risks well.
Gold 4970-4975 participate in the rebound, looking up at 5035-5050.
Gold 5035-5050 short-term adjustment, looking down at 4970, breaking point looks at 4910#黄金 .

Perfect bottom fishing wave 4992 entry, 5010 exit, steadily cashing in eighteen典, can also steadily cash in 1k2 halfway through the ride.

Perfectly achieved, harvest 20 items
5032→5010

The rebound of gold in this round is relatively weak, with insufficient buying momentum. It cannot be ruled out that the gold price may first dip below the support level before stabilizing and rebounding.
Currently, the long position at 5007 can be reduced steadily around 5015 to realize profits, while placing an order to buy at 4986, targeting the range of 5006—5010.

Family, the golden step orange 4995 has peaked at 5029, and has steadily secured 34 typical spaces in Luodai, achieving a good start today!

A rebound is an opportunity for us to short, 5031→5011, a twenty-point space to eat meat back and forth!

Gold Market Analysis

Oil prices have surged, raising inflation expectations. The Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations for March have largely faded, with the dollar index firmly standing at 100.3 and rising strongly. Gold is under dual pressure from inflation and interest rate hike expectations as well as a strong dollar, overall oscillating and weakening.

Technical Analysis

The daily level has broken the previous upward trend, with the 5-day moving average turning down to 5035, creating resistance. The overall indicators are bearish;
The 4-hour chart has formed a small double top and has broken downwards, with rebound pressure concentrated in the 5035-5050 range, and support below at 4980-4960;
The 1-hour downtrend structure has not concluded, with 5035 as a strong short-term resistance and no clear reversal signal yet.

Key Levels

Resistance: 5035-5050
Support: 4980-4955

Trading Strategy

The current pattern is oscillating and slightly bearish, with clear pressure at the upper boundary of the box.
Mainly bearish with some long positions: focus on shorting below 5050, with initial targets at 4945-4910; if it falls to the support area, consider reversing to go long.
Geopolitical conflicts continue to support gold prices, but in the short term, the pressures from the dollar and oil prices are stronger, favoring bearish positions. #Precious Metals

3.16 Crude Oil Morning Review

The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has escalated again over the weekend, and the new week opens with a significant rise in oil prices. Trump has called on allies to send warships to the Strait of Hormuz for escort, but given the current situation, unless the conflict escalates further, the probability of other countries intervening on a large scale is relatively low.

From a technical perspective, the daily level is boosted by geopolitical risks, with oil prices firmly above $110. All moving averages are in a bullish arrangement, the mid-term upward trend is clear, and bullish momentum is strong, with the mid-term direction still looking bullish.

In the short term, the 1-hour cycle maintains a fluctuating upward pattern, with prices testing the key range again. The moving averages remain in a bullish arrangement, and the short-term upward trend remains unchanged. The overall morning session shows a strong upward rhythm, with MACD golden cross above the zero line, and bullish momentum continues to accumulate. Last week, oil prices were significantly affected by news, fluctuating over $40, and the weekly chart ultimately formed a doji pattern.

Trading Strategy:

1. If the rebound approaches the weekly high of 119.4 and holds below, consider shorting.

2. If it stabilizes near 76.7 without breaking down, plan for long positions.

3. If it effectively breaks through 119.4, the upper target looks at the 130—140 range #原油

Gold Morning Commentary

In the early session, gold prices maintained a weak range-bound operation, with the 5000 level serving as the short-term dividing line between bulls and bears. Support below is relatively clear with limited space, while above, prices continue to be suppressed by interest rate expectations.

Core Influencing Factors Analysis

- Federal Reserve Policy Expectations
The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged in March is 99.1%, while the expectation for a rate cut in June has further cooled to 19.5%. The logic of “higher rates for longer” continues to elevate the cost of holding gold, suppressing gold prices upward.
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- Dollar and U.S. Treasuries
The dollar index has stabilized above the 104 level and reached a nearly 4-month high, while the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury has broken through 4.25%. The attractiveness of gold as a non-yielding asset continues to weaken.
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- Geopolitical and Funding Situation
The situation in the Middle East has marginally eased, and the risk premium has quickly retreated; institutions are taking profits, and ETF funds are reducing holdings, with significant short-term capital outflow. However, global central banks continue to purchase gold, providing medium- to long-term support for gold prices.
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- Key Data Disruptions
Tonight, the U.S. February retail sales and the New York Fed manufacturing index will impact market expectations. If the data exceeds expectations, it will reinforce a hawkish stance, further pressuring gold prices; if performance is weak, it may trigger a repair of expectations and a short-term rebound.

Technical Analysis

The daily level has consecutively closed in the red, breaking below the short-term moving averages, which are in a bearish arrangement; the MACD has diverged with a death cross, and the RSI has fallen below 40. The trend is weak but nearing the oversold area, with short-term downward momentum showing signs of decline.

Support: 5000, 4980, 4950, 4900
Resistance: 5080, 5100, 5200

Trading Strategy

- Long Position: Layout in the 5000–5020 range, stop loss at 4980, target at 5080–5100
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- Short Position: Layout in the 5080–5100 range, stop loss at 5120, target at 5030–5050

Disclaimer: The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. The market carries risks, and one should proceed with caution when entering the market. #贵金属