Mi熊

$BTR garbage stuff

$RIVER 8.40. Charlie's list provides anchor points for everyone. Someone asked me: with such a drop, can we bottom-fish?
I countered: have you ever seen a bottom where everyone is shouting bullish?

The data speaks

The long-short ratio is 2.27, with only 1 out of every 2.27 people bearish—retail investors are extremely bullish, crowded like the subway during rush hour. Funding rate -0.25%, short sellers are still paying, but the price has already dropped below MA7 8.21. Large holders' positions are 1.46 still long, but large holder accounts are also 2.55 long—everyone is bullish, yet the price is going down.

In the short term, the script for a long squeeze has already been written. Support at 7.70, once broken, the next stop is 7.2. But the negative funding rate could trigger a short squeeze at any time, so short positions must be light, and stop losses should be set.

In the long term, the project has real substance. 300,000 Galxe users, 650 million TVL, Sun Yuchen just invested 8 million USD. But this week, 4.16 million USD is unlocking, and the issue of concentrated chips remains. Wait for a pullback to 7.0-7.5 before considering phased layout.

Execution recommendations
Short-term short position

Entry: 8.30-8.45
Stop loss: 8.80
Target: 7.80 → 7.20

Long-term long position

Entry: 7.0-7.5 in phases
Stop loss: 6.5
Target: 10 → 12 → 15

Munger's Rule 182:
When everyone is crowding at the same entrance, you should go to another exit to queue up.

Poor Richard said:
"Experience is a valuable school, but fools learn nothing."

Benjamin said:

May you—exit when it's crowded, enter when it's quiet, and outlive the market.

—Charlie Munger

$MYX 1.182. Data updated, this coin belongs to the Beast Zone.

The data is speaking:

The price has risen from 0.8 to 1.18, an increase of 47%, with MA7 at 0.9536 forming short-term support. The funding rate at 0.005% has just turned positive, shorts are no longer paying, and selling pressure has eased. 24-hour trading volume is 73.64 million, indicating sufficient activity, not a dead market.

The fundamentals are speaking:

MYX has plummeted over 80% from its peak of $6.94, with the $1 support and long-term trend line already broken. The MVRV Z-Score has reset, speculative bubbles have been cleared, but this is only a necessary condition, not a reversal signal. The platform still has 178,000 users, with revenue increasing from 61.79 million to 64.45 million, indicating the business is not dead.

The fatal issue is the token unlock pressure—circulation only accounts for 19.08% of the total supply, fully diluted valuation at $974 million, a premium of 424% over the circulating market cap. Early investors and the team are selling newly unlocked tokens, causing systematic selling pressure.

Comprehensive judgment: Slightly greater opportunity for going long, but it is like playing with fire.

Short-term technical rebound is established, funding rate turned positive, and MA7 support is present. However, there is enormous selling pressure in the medium to long term, with unlock pressure looming. Think clearly before entering, light positions are the bottom line.

Execution suggestions:
Stop-loss position: 0.95 (exit if it falls below MA7)
Entry range: 1.15-1.18
First target: 1.25
Second target: 1.35
Third target: 1.50

Poor Richard said:
"You cannot get close to the flame, and young people should not indulge in gambling."

Benjamin said:

May you—think clearly before entering, and hold your positions steady.

—Charlie Munger