BTC未来100万美金

The emotional index has reached 5, and the screen is about to break. I'm not afraid of a sharp decline, but a slow drop! Yesterday's decline was a global asset drop, silver's value halved in half a month, with a market cap of 5.6 trillion losing half, the drop in silver is due to a bubble, while the cryptocurrency market has no bubbles at all. The current market is just like Ethereum's previous state, following the drop but not the rise, and suddenly one day there will be an independent market! Below we welcome the largest market in the cryptocurrency world in five years after four months!

If Bitcoin breaks 100045, nearly 6 billion dollars in short positions might be liquidated.
But don't forget, as the prince said before, the process of clearing shorts has only just begun, 100,000 is just the start 😂

How has history unfolded?
ETH went from 1400 to 5000 back in the day, which was an independent market trend following the BTC correction.

Shitcoins are called shitcoins because they love to give you no face with their ups and downs, love to sneak attack, love to deceive you, and love to shake you off.

They are always benchmarked against Bitcoin at 45,000—50,000 USD, not the 120,000 BTC you fantasize about in your mind.

So what you see now is the most classic scene in the main player’s script.

Shaking people off. Continuously shaking people off. Desperately shaking people off.

Why have shitcoins been fluctuating crazily these days? Because the main players know that retail investors are most likely to make two fatal mistakes at this time:
1: Those who sold at the bottom are now unable to resist chasing the high after seeing the gain leaderboard.

2: Jumping between long and short positions repeatedly, thinking they can catch every fluctuation.

3: Wanting to dodge every correction and catch every rise is essentially gambling.

This is also why retail investors overall lose money after every bull market ends. A bull market relies not on speed, not on luck, but on risk avoidance + holding the main upward trend.

The prince has always said, you can make big money not because you catch a lot, but because you "make fewer mistakes."

When selecting targets, you need to look at strength and weakness structure, stability, explosiveness, persistence, and the number of times the main player exits (the fewer, the fiercer).

Eating a stable segment in the main upward trend is already much better than 90% of people. Standing on the path of the main upward trend in advance, instead of chasing the market.

12.7 Ethereum Evening Bearish (Target Price 2900)

Today's short position has been entered, waiting for the evening acceleration downwards. Currently, as long as the market breaks below the range, it will be unstoppable. Assuming there is a slight attempt to lure buyers around 2960, it must at least break below 2870 today, so our take profit level is still very close, and a slight acceleration downwards will trigger the take profit.

Note: Do not attempt to bottom-fish by going long. As long as the market moves downwards, it will trigger a resonance of bullish sentiment. Once a certain position leads to a frenzy of bottom-fishing by bulls, a black swan event could occur. #加密市场观察

The Federal Reserve has ended QT, and previously, Fed officials sent strong signals that the expansion of the balance sheet is not far off. Some institutions predict that the Federal Reserve may announce the active management of reserve purchases (RMP) at the interest rate meeting as early as next week, with monthly purchases of short-term U.S. Treasuries of about $20 billion. The key point is that the Federal Reserve has already taken this action; the funding injected by the Fed in early December is the largest scale of liquidity injection since the pandemic in 2020, and once it starts, it will not stop. It's just like lowering or raising interest rates.

Since October 11, the market has been like being pressed down and rubbed into the ground; for twenty-nine days in a month, there has been fear and extreme fear, a span that is rare in history. Many people think fear is a bad thing, but looking at it from the other side, what does long-term fear mean? It means the main force is grinding retail investors' emotions to the thinnest point, to the point where they doubt their lives, to the point where they don't even dare to believe in a rebound. Fear is not the end; it is the accelerated redistribution of chips. This time, the plunge is obviously more panic-inducing than the previous two Bitcoin corrections of 30%, with a longer washout period, more extended fear, and an even stronger explosion to come.

Brothers, I can only say the big one is coming #stable

The market thought that today's market sentiment would end the ongoing fear of the past month, but this morning it was hit again, and after the drop, the sentiment index remained at 23. In the past 30 days, 29 days were filled with fear or extreme fear, with only one day briefly returning to neutral. This can be considered a record-breaking market sentiment.

Such places are often the easiest to find opportunities. Ahr999 is at 0.55 today, still within a range suitable for aggressive bottom fishing. The lower the sentiment, the more the main players dare to act, and retail investors are more easily washed out.

This morning, Bitcoin dropped by 5%, and the reasons given were merely two. One is that Japan may raise interest rates, with many comparing it to the rate hike in August 2024, saying that there was also a significant drop after that rate hike. The other is that the CEO of MicroStrategy finally spoke up, saying that if they can't raise funds, the company may need to sell Bitcoin.

But the market overlooked two more important points.

First, the Federal Reserve officially ends quantitative tightening starting today, December 1. Since 2022, the Federal Reserve has withdrawn over $2 trillion from the market. With QT ongoing, the market's liquidity cannot be replenished. And starting today, this bloodletting action has officially stopped. The historical pattern is simple: after QT ends, it often just takes a triggering point for real liquidity to warm up. Risk assets are the most sensitive, and Bitcoin is usually the first to react.

Second, last week both BTC ETF and ETH ETF turned back to net inflows, ending four consecutive weeks of net outflows. BlackRock also publicly stated that the Bitcoin ETF has become their most profitable business line. IBIT has been online for 341 days with a scale of $70 billion, generating an annual fee income of over $200 million, directly eating up the profits of an entire industry, faster than they themselves expected. In the face of such profits, how could institutions not continue to increase their positions? More institutions will definitely start to FOMO, as no one wants to miss out on this profitable business.

Moreover, there are three important matters overlapping this month. Stopping balance sheet reduction. Opening the interest rate cut window. Ethereum upgrade. Plus, over a hundred altcoin-related ETFs waiting for approval. But the most important thing is that the market has been thoroughly washed! Sideways is in place! The drop is in place! Q1 is a crazy bull.

The darkness before dawn! At such times, market trends are the easiest to misjudge. Retail investors see fear, and everyone thinks the market has ended, but in fact, it’s just that the sentiment has been beaten too hard. Now, even a slight fluctuation makes them panic!

$ETH Woke up early in the morning to eat big meat, awesome! Achieved 5 times the profit!

Beautifully pocketed 1700U! The order given last week took off on the spot!

The bull market is still on! ETH is looking at $8500 + interest rate cuts in December!

Interest rate cuts in December are inevitable, and with them, the market will surely soar, a huge benefit!

If you've missed several rounds of the bull market, you definitely shouldn't miss this round of the bull market!

You issue coins and I'll analyze them for you in the chat room, which coin will surge next?

$ETH Woke up early in the morning to eat big meat, awesome! Achieved 5 times the profit!

Beautifully pocketed 1700U! The order given last week took off on the spot!

The bull market is still on! ETH is looking at $8500 + interest rate cuts in December!

Interest rate cuts in December are inevitable, and with them, the market will surely soar, a huge benefit!

If you've missed several rounds of the bull market, you definitely shouldn't miss this round of the bull market!

You issue coins and I'll analyze them for you in the chat room, which coin will surge next?

Without 'faith', even holding long-term, the rise won't be yours! The prince explained it clearly today in three points!

1: Retail investors can hold for a long time, not because of faith, but because the rise isn't enough. What is the real pain point? Long-term sideways movement + slight downward trend + negative news + KOLs leading the narrative + starting to doubt life. When these four things overlap, retail investor sentiment will show a classic curve: the longer they hold, the more they dislike it, and the last little bit of decline just drives people away. This is why the wealth effect of altcoins that everyone criticizes is filled with resentment; it's not resentment, it's called love-hate. Volatility is vitality! It's also the biggest advantage in the crypto space.

Why do the main players like to wash the last batch before the final push? Because what do they fear the most? Retail investors fully following the trend. So before the main players enter, they must complete three things: 1. Wash out the early long-term retail investors (this group has the most stable chips and is the hardest to wash) 2. Clear all the long positions in contracts (if leverage isn't cleared, the market won't rise) 3. Suppress market sentiment to a position where 'no one dares to go all in'. When these three things are completed, the main upward wave will truly open. Is it coincidence? No, it's a process.

2: Why do retail investors who have held for a long time still sell before breaking the previous high on the daily chart? It's not that their confidence has strengthened after holding for a long time, but rather their expectations have been repeatedly hit, finally turning into 'I just want to break even'. When losing 20% turns to losing 3%, retail investors will think: 'Hey, I'm not losing anymore, I'll take it step by step.' And then they leave. The next day, a sudden bullish candlestick appears. This is dying just before dawn. Retail investors always sell before takeoff because 'emotional time' is much shorter than 'market time'.

Market rhythm: building positions, sideways movement, accumulating. Then sideways movement, shaking positions, main upward wave.
Retail investor rhythm: buying in, sideways doubt, then sideways frustration, then a slight drop causes fear, and then they run away to break even.

So after the market completes a cycle, retail investor sentiment has gone through three seasons. Which is faster? Retail investor sentiment. Which is slower? Main player rhythm. Retail investors can't wait for the main players, but main players can wait for retail investors.

Why does the prince never drop the ball? Because the prince focuses on 'behavioral logic', not 'short-term fluctuations'. The prince observes blockchain data, capital, ETFs, options, and main player position structures daily, focusing on: who is accumulating, who is supplying, who is being washed, who is leveraging, and who is emotional.

Livermore once said that the market is never wrong; the only thing that is wrong is people.

In the cryptocurrency world, this means that most retail investors don't lose because of the market, but because of themselves.
They fear missing out when prices rise, and they fear being trapped when prices fall. If you're afraid of both rising and falling, how do you expect to make money from trends? The big players take advantage of this fear, repeatedly consolidating prices, tricking you into exiting, and then blowing your mind with their next move.

In fact, the most ruthless isn't the big players; it's you, frequently changing direction.
Livermore saw through it while he was alive: the real big money is in long trends.
But retail investors always focus on a single candlestick, an hour, or a moving average, turning a main upward trend into short-term gambling.

The more you try to catch the details, the less you grasp the essence of the market.
The market won't change direction because of your fears, nor will it rise because of your hopes.
It will only reward those who are willing to exchange time for space.

When you are no longer swayed by short-term fluctuations, you will truly stand on the same side as the big players.

Eric Trump: Bitcoin will break 175,000 USD this year.

Last night, the Federal Reserve injected $29 billion into the banking system, the highest level in more than five years.
What does this mean? It means that no matter how hawkish Powell sounds, he has already started to ease up.

Hawkish rhetoric is a smokescreen; liquidity is the real signal.
The last time there was this much easing, we have to trace it back to the early days of the pandemic, followed by a global asset bull market.
Don't be fooled by his few words about 'inflation still being stubborn'; truly smart money looks at off-balance-sheet operations.

With liquidity coming in, risk assets will all perk up.