老黑谈饼

The two major pancakes are under the dual pressure of geopolitical tensions and tightening liquidity, having broken the 70,000 mark and still continuously breaking key support levels. Recently, I have been bearish and will continue to try shorting during the day; BTC and ETH still do not meet expectations. A profit of 3,400 points / 73 points has been realized.
Only the profits that can be held are called profits; unrealized gains do not count as earnings. Locking in profits and managing risks is the long-term strategy.

Yesterday, BTC faced selling pressure and fluctuated downward, effectively breaking below the 70K mark and dropping to around 68000. Silk Road also reminded that the main bias is bearish, supported by bullish, providing two waves that perfectly captured the exit.

Currently, looking at the daily level, a large bearish candlestick has formed and shows a bearish arrangement. The four-hour moving averages have already formed a death cross, and it is currently fluctuating around 68000, which is the focal point of the tug-of-war between bullish and bearish. The short-term bearish trend has not changed, structurally still leaning bearish. In the short term, rebounds in the range of 69500 - 70000 can continue to attempt short positions. Watch around 68000; if it cannot hold, it may drop to around 67000; if it loses further, it may drop to around 65000.

ETH is currently in a short-term rebound and repair phase under a cyclical bearish structure. Before stabilizing above 2200, although the market is still oscillating within the range, short-term attention should be paid to the resistance at 2200 above, which is also the suppression zone of the 50-day EMA. If it can break through with volume, it will go higher step by step. In the short term, pay attention to the primary support at the integer level of 2100, and as long as it remains unbroken, it can be tried nearby. If it fails and breaks down, it may test 2065 or even around 2000. It is prudent to wait for an effective breakthrough of the converging triangle area before making adjustments.

Currently, the market is in a high-level oscillation pattern. Both bulls and bears are fiercely contending around the 70,000 mark, and there is no clear one-sided trend formed yet. The downward momentum at the daily level is weakening, but there is also a lack of sufficient power for an upward attack. Currently, the market is oscillating within a range with pressure above and support below, overall hovering within the range. Before breaking out of the range, treat it according to the range and avoid chasing highs and cutting losses.

During the day, the resistance above is around 71,500 - 72,000, and any resistance can attempt to short. Look at the 69,000 - 69,500 area; if it breaks down, it may test 67,000 or even 65,600 below.

Currently, looking at BTC after a day of competition, the price level remains the same. The short positions have perfectly captured a few waves, and there have been reminders in the silk exposure. Before the stage of long and short game breaks out of the range, it still provides short-term opportunities for high selling and bottom buying. We should treat the fluctuating market as a fluctuating market.
Currently, although the large coin is at a critical support line for defense, it also shows that the market momentum is weak and the short-term selling pressure is relatively large, overall leaning towards a downward test of support. Before recovering the range of 71400-72000 with significant volume, pay attention to the area around 88000-89000 below.

ETH has experienced a rapid reversal, bouncing back in a V-shape above 2150 from the 2023 position, and is currently stabilizing around 2150, presenting a pattern of intense long and short disputes.

Currently, the key Ethereum is at a critical decision point. The ability to effectively break through 2190 in the short term is the core of the direction, while 2100 serves as the short-term defensive bottom line. Before an effective breakthrough in the range, the market is likely to maintain fluctuations.
This could lead to a drop back to the 2000 - 2030 area. This round of V-shaped reversal pattern will fail, potentially triggering a rapid decline to the 1xxx level.

After experiencing a severe drop on Black Monday, BTC has shown a technical rebound, with a large bullish candle reclaiming the 71000 level. It was also mentioned yesterday that the critical area of 71-72 for Bitcoin was a densely trapped zone, and the market accurately reached this area as anticipated.
Currently, BTC is in a weak rebound phase after a brief respite from news. Although the 71000 level has been regained, there is significant resistance above, and liquidity has not substantially improved. Overall market sentiment remains fragile, with intense long-short battles.
During the day, pay attention to the resistance around 72000 - 73000. If it can break through this area with volume, the rebound is likely to continue;
If it encounters resistance, it may fall back to the critical support below: 68000 - 69000. If it breaks down again, it is highly likely to continue testing the 65000 - 66000 range.

The market is always right; the only mistakes are obsession, position, and emotion. Do not confront the market head-on, only follow.

Bai Jian Si Lu has reminded us of the 71-72K dense area, and Bitcoin's attack as expected is an opportunity to pick up U. Let's continue to work together this new week to cross the dog farm.

The ETH market sentiment remains weak. After two days of adjustment, it still failed to hold above 2100. The moving averages on the daily chart are positioned below the 50-day and 100-day, forming a bearish arrangement that indicates a downward trend is establishing. The daily RSI is below the neutral level of 50, but the daily momentum remains weak, with no clear bottom reversal signals appearing. Additionally, the MACD is below the zero line and in the bearish zone, indicating that bearish momentum is increasing, and there is considerable short-term pullback pressure.

Therefore, it is highly likely that the attempt to continue the downward rhythm will persist as long as it is suppressed below the resistance area of 2120, with bears holding the dominant position. If the range of 2025 - 2000 is broken down with volume, the downward trend will continue, targeting support at 1965 or even lower.

After the adjustments over the weekend, the market continues to decline as expected, facing a critical support level. Currently, all moving averages within 120 days have been broken, with the short-term range of 71000-72000 being pressured by the moving averages, and it is a dense area that is difficult to break through before a trend change.

At present, it has lost the 70000 threshold and has turned into resistance. Key attention is on the 68000 support, which has also been tested multiple times recently; a breakthrough will tilt the overall momentum downwards. A valid drop below 66000 or probing down to 64000 or even lower.

In the blink of an eye, the weekend is here again, and the two major currencies are still oscillating as always. Meanwhile, the oscillation range is centered around the fluctuations. Currently, Bitcoin is at a critical technical structural support phase. Before breaking out of the 68K-72K range, the market is likely to maintain oscillation, but we must also be wary of the spike risks over the weekend.

Given that liquidity is usually poor over the weekend, the market can be easily amplified. In the short term, we can wait for a pullback to the 68000 - 69500 range and stabilize, allowing for a left-side ambush to try and go long. If it breaks below 68000, we must manage risk and pay attention to the 66000 level below.

After experiencing a round of correction, BTC is currently in a weak oscillation after breaking through the 70,000 mark on the 4-hour level. The daily chart shows signals such as the Dark Cloud Cover, indicating a short-term bearish strength. However, during this correction, the trading volume has not significantly increased, suggesting a technical adjustment rather than a trend reversal.
Currently, there is a tug-of-war around the key level of 70,000, and the gains or losses at this position will determine the future direction. In the short term, if it recovers above 71,500, it may alleviate the current downward pressure; otherwise, it may further test the area around 67,000 - 68,000.

ETH

Recently, Ethereum rebounded to around 2390 under a strong momentum but faced pressure from bears, leading to a significant pullback. Market sentiment is mixed, with intense long and short battles.
Overnight news triggered a rapid decline in the market, but it has not seen effective continuation and is expected to stabilize. Currently, the bullish trend has not been damaged. Additionally, continuous net inflows into ETFs provide support. During the day, pay attention to the key on-chain cost and structural support level at 2140; as long as it does not fall below this level, a rebound can be anticipated, looking around 2250 - 2300.

The current Bitcoin is at a point of directional choice after a short-term trend weakening. A pullback sentiment is being released on a smaller scale, and momentum indicators like MACD are weakening, suggesting that a direct V-shaped reversal in the short term is quite difficult, leaning more towards digesting selling pressure through fluctuations.
Currently, the key observation point today is the gain or loss at 70500.
If it can hold, the market will maintain a fluctuation range between 70500-72500 to build a base;
If it breaks down with volume, caution is needed for the risk of seeking support at 68000.
At this time, one should remain cautious. Before the range is effectively broken, chasing highs and selling lows is not advisable, and it is better to adopt a high-sell low-buy strategy or patiently wait for a clearer trend.

The market is abuzz with discussions about the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and Chairman Powell's press conference, which will be revealed tonight. It is another extraordinary night of stormy weather.
Currently, the data shows that the probability of a rate cut is 0, while the probability of maintaining the interest rate is 98.9%. It can basically be confirmed that there will be no rate cut this time, but if there are hawkish remarks, the waterfall effect could happen in an instant. Whether we can stand strong depends on Chairman Powell's influence tonight.
Friends with ideas and thoughts are welcome to join the chat room for discussion.

BTC
Recently, the influx of funds has supported the rebound, and Bitcoin has been soaring and dancing all the way. Although a single bearish candle broke the eight consecutive bullish pattern, it did not lead to a significant drop. Recently, all the silk has been refreshing and pleasant.

Currently, after a general upward fluctuation to 76K, although there has been a pullback, the strength is not enough. The short-term pullback adjustment can be understood as preparation for a better upward attack. At this time, pay attention to the short-term 72000, which has not been broken, and can see upward movement. If the volume increases to 76000, the rebound trend may continue to look at the previous high;

Key attention should be given to tonight's interest rate decision. Before the news is released, the market is likely to maintain the current range fluctuation.

ETH
Recently, the situation in the Middle East continues to affect the market, leading to a gradual recovery in ETF demand. Gold has also fallen below the 5000 mark, with some funds rotating into the cryptocurrency market. Over the past week, there has been a strong performance with eight consecutive days of gains.
Currently, it seems that a strong rally is pushing towards 2400, although it has not yet succeeded. While there is a short-term need for a correction, the intensity is not expected to be significant, and both the lower and upper levels are moving up simultaneously. As long as the trend remains unchanged, if this red area can hold, the next target can be set between 2400 and 2600.

BTC
As concerns over geopolitical tensions ease, funds are flowing out of safe havens like gold and back into Bitcoin. Currently, it has shown a strong bullish trend for several consecutive days. The market clearly has significant divergence regarding the trend after breaking 75,000. Pay attention to this position to stay above the moving averages, forming a complete N-shaped bullish trend. If it can break the previous high, it may further attack near 78,000.

If it cannot hold, the bears may return. The hourly MACD indicates a possible top divergence, and there is a need for a pullback to support in the short term. Pay attention to support around 72,400-73,200.

Looking back at all the summaries from last week, it has basically been a continuous enjoyment. In terms of cycles, Old Hei has been emphasizing that after stability in the Middle East, there will be a gradual warming. Every wave of correction is an opportunity to catch the wave, and the market has met expectations as promised.
In the upcoming new week, it's a new start. If you are still feeling confused and at a loss, come to Old Hei and let’s move forward together.

Looking back at all the summaries from last week, it has basically been a continuous pleasure. In terms of cycles, Lao Hei has been emphasizing that the Middle East will gradually warm up after stabilization, and every wave of adjustment is an opportunity to take advantage of. The market is also meeting expectations as scheduled.
In the new week ahead, it’s a new start. If you are still feeling lost and unsure, you can come to Lao Hei and we will move forward together.