0x傅红雪

#美以袭击伊朗 🚨 War Erupts — Emergency Market Analysis

What Happened?

Israel launched a "preventive" airstrike on Iran
• Three major explosions in downtown Tehran
• Targets near Supreme Leader Khamenei's office
• Khamenei has been moved to a safe location
• Israel declared a national state of emergency (to prevent retaliation)
• Unclear extent of U.S. involvement (NYT claims U.S.-Israel collaboration, Bloomberg only mentions Israel)

🤔 Why is it strange? Negotiating while fighting

Timeline:
• 2/26 Third round of U.S.-Iran Geneva talks ended without results
• 2/27 Trump: "Wants to reach an agreement" but "is not happy"
• 2/27 Omani Foreign Minister flew to Washington to meet Vance (in mediation)
• 2/28 Israel suddenly airstrikes Tehran

Analysis:
• Not targeting nuclear facilities, but near the Supreme Leader → Political pressure / decapitation signal

• Israel may take unilateral action while the U.S.-Iran negotiations are at a standstill
• "Promoting peace through strength" vs "destroying negotiations by acting first" → U.S. attitude is key

📊 Two Scenarios

Scenario A: Limited strike + Iran does not retaliate (Probability 40%) 🟢
• Israel stops after the strike, Iran is forced back to the negotiation table
• Oil prices spike and then retreat, panic quickly dissipates
• BTC rebounds in a V shape to $66K-68K within 24-48 hours
• Historical reference: In 2025, U.S.-Israel attacked Iran's nuclear facilities, BTC bottomed out the next day

Scenario B: Iran retaliates → Full-scale war (Probability 60%) 🔴
• Iran launches ballistic missiles in retaliation (last time it fired 550)
• Oil prices surge to $80-90, U.S. stocks plummet, VIX > 35
• BTC may drop to $55,000-60,000
• Full-scale war continues → Weeks of decline

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A bear market is breaking your psychological support level! Breaking everyone's psychological support level! Continuously breaking down! $ETH
$BTC

Cherish this time; fluctuations are a good thing. Don't lose confidence just because of a downturn. No fluctuations signify a true bear market. If you face a liquidation, go travel to relax and wait for the right opportunity to act again. If you don't die, you will eventually turn things around. #

#何时抄底？ Block all the KOLs that make you want to buy the dip now, 90% of KOL trading levels are not as good as yours, my friend, patience is needed to wait for the bottom $BTC $ETH

$ETH
$SOL
The rebound is an opportunity for many long positions to escape; never chase long positions. The target price for sol is 41-50.

Even the eagle is afraid, the 60,000 pancake can't hold up for too long, 50,000 is in sight, and there's this garbage coin XRP, target price 0.33, heavily short $XRP

$ETH rebound means empty, send Yihua Li to work at Meituan
$SOL

#美股七巨头财报
1. Overall Performance: AI Leads, Traditional Businesses Under Pressure
1. The Strong Get Stronger:
· Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Meta performed the best, with results exceeding expectations and stock prices significantly rising. AI-related revenue (cloud services, chips, advertising tools) has become the core engine of growth.
· NVIDIA remains the "AI barometer," with continuous explosive demand for data center GPUs and astonishing gross margins.
· Meta's advertising revenue is accelerating, with AI recommendation algorithms improving monetization efficiency and effective cost control.
2. Divergence Intensifies:
· Tesla is impacted by the electric vehicle price war and slowing demand, with a noticeable decline in profitability; the AI story (autonomous driving) struggles to mask short-term pressures.
· Apple's revenue slightly increased, but the Greater China region is weak, relying on the high-end market and ecological barriers, with concerns about delayed AI layout.
· Google and Amazon's cloud businesses (AWS, Google Cloud) are growing steadily, but competition in advertising/e-commerce is fierce, putting pressure on profit margins.
2. Core Trends: AI Moves from Concept to Monetization
· Cloud and Chips: The demand for AI services from Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud, and AWS is strong, driving accelerated cloud revenue. NVIDIA's H100 chips are in short supply, with an irreplaceable position in the industry chain.
· Capital Expenditures Surge: The seven giants have significantly increased investments in AI infrastructure (a total of over $200 billion in 2024), and future technology moats will further widen.
· Application Layer Implementation: Companies like Meta and Google are embedding AI into advertising, search, and content creation, directly enhancing profitability efficiency.
3. Risks and Challenges
1. Overvaluation: Some companies' price-to-earnings ratios already reflect growth expectations for many years to come, with strong sensitivity to interest rates.
2. Regulatory Pressure: Ongoing anti-monopoly investigations in Europe and the U.S. may limit expansion and mergers.
3. Geopolitical: Tesla and Apple's businesses in China face uncertainties; chip export controls affect companies like NVIDIA.
4. Internal Divergence: If Tesla and Apple cannot prove their capabilities in AI, they may be left behind.
The financial reports of the "seven giants" confirm that AI has moved from thematic speculation to a performance realization period. Microsoft and NVIDIA have become the biggest winners, while Apple and Tesla need to quickly find new growth points. Despite the existence of high valuations and macro risks, the dividends of the AI revolution are still in the early stages, and the advantages of technological leaders may further expand.

GM evening is another big red pillar. I reminded everyone last week that it’s not the time to go long recently. Today, it still isn't the time to bottom fish. Friends who like to go long, please be aware of the risks #ETH走势分析 .

I can't take it anymore. The official White House account posted an AI image of Trump holding hands with a penguin waving the American flag, walking towards Greenland, with the caption 'Embrace the Penguin.'

American netizens are filled with grief and anger: 'Is this our stupid x government (that's the exact phrase)? Can't anyone in the entire White House tell them that there are no penguins in the Arctic or Greenland?'

#达沃斯世界经济论坛2026
1. Global Reconfiguration and Supply Chain Resilience
· Discuss how to build diverse and secure global supply chains in the context of geopolitical tensions and climate crises.
· Key topics: energy transition, critical mineral cooperation, digital supply chains.
2. AI Governance and Inclusive Innovation
· Focus on AI ethics, global regulatory frameworks, and how to leverage AI to address challenges such as climate change and uneven healthcare resources.
· Introduce the "AI for Humanity" initiative, advocating for inclusive technology.
3. Climate Action and Sustainable Finance
· Accelerate the implementation of the Paris Agreement and promote investment in green technologies.
· Explore carbon pricing mechanisms, natural capital accounting, and global biodiversity protection.
4. Global Governance and Cooperation Mechanisms
· Engage in dialogue on issues such as multilateral institution reform, cryptocurrency regulation, and cybersecurity.
· Call for emerging economies to play a greater role in global decision-making.

Scott Adams' Success Guide:

1️⃣ Goals are for losers
Goals rely on willpower; while systems (daily habits) rely on processes and inertia.

2️⃣ Talent Stack
Don't try to be top-notch (the top 1%) in one area,
but rather aim to be 'decent' (the top 25%) in two unrelated skills.

3️⃣ Manage energy, not time
Prioritize doing things that enhance your physical and mental energy,
even if they don't seem 'urgent'.

4️⃣ Passion is nonsense
Passion is often a byproduct of success,
not the reason for it.

5️⃣ Create luck
You can't control luck itself,
but you can broaden your skill set,
making yourself a target that is more likely to be 'hit' by luck.

It feels like a big fluctuation is coming, recently there might be a significant pull, everyone prepare your bullets, definitely don't be fully invested!

Dear esteemed NASDAQ traders, here we can only open positions with small lots. If Chuanzi taco rebounds slightly, if Chuanzi continues to be strong, then the price still needs to drop deeper. Patiently wait for $BTC #

#加密市场观察 This morning, the cryptocurrency market experienced a flash crash, primarily due to the sudden escalation of trade tensions between the US and Europe, triggering global risk aversion and leading to a collective sell-off of high-risk assets.
This flash crash is not an isolated incident, but rather a typical process of "macroeconomic shock -> shift in risk appetite -> chain reaction in high-leverage markets."
1. Cause: Geopolitical "black swan"
The immediate trigger was the trade friction between the US and Europe concerning Greenland. US President Trump threatened to impose tariffs on eight European countries. In retaliation, the EU is considering imposing retaliatory tariffs on US goods valued at 93 billion euros. This level of trade confrontation poses a threat, rapidly disrupting global market sentiment.
2. Transmission: Global capital seeking safety
Once the news broke, traditional financial markets reacted first: the prices of gold and silver, viewed as "safe havens," soared, while the US stock index futures, which represent tech stocks and risk appetite, fell in response. This indicates that capital is quickly withdrawing from risk assets.
3. Amplification: The "high leverage" structure of the cryptocurrency market
Cryptocurrencies, widely regarded as a category of high volatility and high risk, were the first to bear the brunt in this wave of risk aversion, experiencing more severe selling pressure. More critically, the extreme high-leverage long positions within the market became an "accelerator." Once a price drop triggers forced liquidations (margin calls) of some leveraged accounts, it can lead to a chain sell-off, dramatically amplifying the decline in a short period. This is also why the decline appears modest but can result in nearly 240,000 people being liquidated.

When the market comes, one is not excited but can’t control oneself during the fluctuations. Is there something wrong? Many gamblers are the opposite of normal people; the more money they lose, the more excited they become. What they like is not making money, but the "feeling of getting back to even." This is indeed a kind of illness, not just a psychological disorder, as it can also lead to permanent addictive changes in the brain. There are also some studies regarding gamblers and sexual impulses. Generally, female gamblers have no sexual desire, while male gamblers have heightened sexual desire after losing money.

Characteristics of pathological gambling:

1. Needs to wager increasingly larger amounts of money to achieve the same level of excitement (i.e., "tolerance" gradually increases).
2. Feels irritable, anxious, or restless when trying to reduce or stop gambling behavior.
3. Has made multiple attempts to control, reduce, or quit gambling behavior but has failed.
4. Often thinks about gambling, including past experiences, future plans, or fundraising methods.
5. After losing money, often thinks about gambling again as soon as possible to try to recover losses (commonly known as "chasing losses").
6. Lies to family, friends, or others to conceal the extent of gambling behavior.
7. Risks or loses important interpersonal relationships, jobs, or educational opportunities due to gambling behavior.
8. Borrows money from others to cope with financial difficulties caused by gambling.
9. Uses gambling as a way to escape problems or alleviate feelings of depression, anxiety, guilt, etc.

If a trade is made, there is a 5% chance of a liquidation loss, a 95% chance of doubling, and a 10% chance of increasing tenfold.

If you are a consultant, would you let your clients do it? I wouldn't.

Would you do it yourself?

You must have thought of this, right? I can use a portion of the funds to trade, for example, I would choose 10%+20% like that.

You must have thought of this too, letting the client take a 10% position is fine.

Be aggressive in timing and asset selection, and conservative in position control and trading frequency. This is my style.

Conversely, a trade with a risk-reward ratio of 3:1, a maximum drawdown of 10%, and a win rate of 80%, if leveraged ten times, would turn into: a 20% chance of a total loss, an 80% chance of a profit of 3 times becoming 4 times. The mathematical expectation of this result is 320%, but if you do this with all your funds, there's a 90% chance of losing everything after ten trades.