币需拿下

In recent days, everyone has been focused on the back-and-forth between China and the United States, but the real shockwave has actually erupted on Wall Street.

First explosion: BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, has directly restricted client redemptions—want to withdraw 9.3%? Only 5% is allowed, the rest is forcibly withheld. This is called 'liquidity management,' which, to put it bluntly, is defaulting on debts. Following closely, Blackstone and Burning Capital have also frozen redemptions, with the three giants exploding simultaneously, leading to widespread defaults in the $30 trillion private credit market.

Second explosion: Oil prices soared by 12% in one day, breaking the $90 mark. With the Strait of Hormuz sealed, inflation will rebound immediately, and the Federal Reserve's hopes for interest rate cuts are dashed, with stagflation risks at an all-time high.

Third explosion: Non-farm employment not only failed to rise but plummeted by 92,000, and the unemployment rate surged to 10.4%. Goldman Sachs bluntly stated: The U.S. economy has already stepped into the quagmire of stagflation.

These three explosive points may seem isolated, but they are causally interconnected: geopolitical conflicts drive up oil prices → inflation rebounds → employment deteriorates → private credit collapses → systemic risks explode.

What’s even worse is that Iran, with drones costing just a few tens of thousands of dollars, can use them to consume U.S. interceptors worth millions each. In one month, Iran can produce 100 missiles, while the U.S. can only make six or seven interceptors. How can this war be fought?

U.S. military experts lament: If even Iran can't afford this, how do they expect to compete with industrial powers in terms of production capacity?

Trump is now in a difficult position: withdrawing means geopolitical bankruptcy; fighting means no money, no people, and no ammunition. Domestic credit collapse, uncontrollable inflation, shrinking employment—one misstep leads to another.

History is never fresh: The Vietnam War dragged down the U.S. economy, and the curse of stagflation lasted for a decade. Today, the script is being rewritten.

The Federal Reserve has only one way left: flooding the market to save it. Inflation is always better than stagflation. But the thunder has already struck; will it turn into a chain reaction? Will it exceed the events of 2008?

You guess. #特朗普称伊朗战事接近尾声