BTC静静说

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随着油价上涨，美债收益率开始下跌，金价开始上涨

说明当油价继续上升时，市场不再预期美联储会进一步加息

相反他觉得美联储更可能降息

原因很简单，市场从通胀逻辑转向了衰退逻辑，市场开始担心全世界脆弱的经济经不起太多的折腾了。

Thinking about it, over the years in the cryptocurrency circle, I lost money mainly because I believed these few phrases:

"Spot trading is not to be afraid"
"Altcoins won't drop anymore"
"It has already dropped 95%, it won't drop further"
"This product has real income, the coin price is undervalued"
"This time is different"
"The project has received financing from large institutions, the background is solid"
"The team is working hard"
"Bitcoin is consolidating, altcoins need to catch up"

与传统高频波段的散户交易不同，贝莱德作为长期配置型机构，选择了 “持有BTC和ETH穿越牛熊” 的策略，这导致最终承受了完整的周期波动。目前贝莱德所持有的BTC和ETH高达200亿美金的亏损。

BTC周一反弹已经成了庄家的惯用手法
还是那句话
反弹并非反转
日内的话可以继续参考
凌晨压力区下方高位接空

每一轮熊， 中途都会听到说这一轮不一样，不会跌那么深， 但是结果毫无意外，都一样，那本轮，又是凭什么不一样呢？

抛开你个人太主观的看法，需要看到的起码通用特征

1：顺畅下跌之后需要有长时间的震荡洗盘吸筹
2：需要有史诗级的利空甚至连环利空最后一舞
（非日内建议）

NOM从低点0.001732快速拉升至0.004343，短短时间内涨幅超过两倍。该币目前在韩国Upbit的交易量占比最高，最近几天韩国资金持续大量涌入，导致成交量暴增上百倍，市值也从几百万美元迅速攀升到上千万级别。项目背后有Pantera、Coinbase等知名机构支持，还与Luna前创始人存在投资关联（原为Omni Network，后改名NOM）。由于之前市值极低、价格基数小，这完全符合韩国主力一贯偏好的炒作风格。目前尚未看到明确的实质利好消息，纯粹是资金情绪驱动的行情。这种高情绪、纯资金推动的品种，现在无论是追多还是做空都不太稳妥：追进去容易被高位套牢，放空又很可能遭遇突然拉升打止损。简洁总结改写版（正常自然语气）：NOM近期从底部0.001732快速涨到0.004343，短时间内翻了两倍多。目前它在韩国最大交易所Upbit的交易量占比最大，韩国资金最近几天明显涌入，成交量直接爆增百倍以上，市值也从几百万快速拉升至上千万级别。该项目有Pantera和Coinbase等机构背景，还和Luna前创始人有投资关联（原Omni Network项目，后改名为NOM）。因为之前市值很小、价格很低，这很符合韩国主力喜欢炒作低价小盘币的风格。目前没有看到明确的实质利好消息，本质上就是典型的资金情绪驱动行情。这种高热度、纯资金推动的盘子，现在追多或做空都不合适：追高容易被套，空单又容易被一根大阳线打损。建议保持观望，谨慎参与。

最近币圈行情一团糟
一级市场玩不了
二级市场不好做
大家开始做____

昨晚60多万抄了 #爱呜呜 ，兄弟萌有没有觉得BSC的土狗 #meme 不一样了，有持久力了！

最明显的转变就是三个上百万的盘子都没有日结一波流

$BinanceAiPro 虽然高点300万 下来之后两次反弹都没有破新高，但也在百万区间稳定了快一星期，目前跌下来还有100多万市值

#扭羊歌 站上百万区间后也没有跌破过100万，三天了，拉升力度很强劲，日线还一直是上涨趋势，200万真有可能不是上限

$爱呜呜 用了一天的时间才上的100万，没有那种极速PVP，最低50多万反弹起来的，而且是AVE的吉祥物，属于非币安相关的叙事，真的很难得

难道真的是 @aa_AFeng 不在车上的缘故？

感觉狗庄的收割动作都变慢了，更有格局了，大家开始心存信仰，二段玩起来也平稳多了！

Back and forth, the one who gets hurt the most is always my account
🥹

When did Bitcoin go from a risky asset to a safe-haven asset?
When it reaches 200,000 dollars...

However, this road is long and fraught with danger...

Currently, it seems that the world will become increasingly chaotic
Order is collapsing, and disorder is accelerating...

When oil prices break 120 dollars, I wonder if Trump feels a bit anxious inside?

Anyway, right now, I am calm and unruffled
I can't lose much, at worst I can go into the sea

如果只让你选一个方向上车，你选哪个？

AI、算力、有色、电力，还是别的？评论区说一下理由

BSC的 #meme 阴谋味道又越来越重了！

$BinanceAiPro 的榜一昨天下午终于出现了卖单，但也就200万市值卖了31笔，紧接着又是不断的小额买入

前天总买入还只有3万U，今天已经翻倍到6万U了，持仓占比都8.36%了

这要不是狗庄的账户我都不信，没有点内幕信息谁敢这么玩，感觉大概率与币安有关系！

以太坊从日线级别来看，K线2连阴，再次回踩前低2000支撑位，短期2000大关是行情的分水岭，若能守住，后续将会再去冲击2200压力位，反之若失守，就会再去回踩1800，因此希望它能守住2000，否则一旦跌破，市场恐慌将会加剧

BSC的土狗 #meme 还有没有希望？有！

这两天BSC算是被骂惨了，现在是一片狼藉，彻底失了人心，很多人已经跳槽去玩SOL了

但骂归骂，玩土狗还是要逆向思维，骂BSC的人越多，反而出金的概率越大

首先币安好不容易打下的土狗市场半壁江山，不会这么轻易遗弃，反常规套路突袭是BSC的招牌操作，市场越安静越低迷，Alpha和二圣的带货就越容易出现

其次，散户的大众心理都是阶段性的，别看大家现在骂声一片，只要来个大金带动一下市场，骂的那群人必然立马变脸开始捧

第三，市场流动性越低，狗庄越容易操作，散户都下车了，认为盘子死了，才是拉盘的最好时机，人越少的地方机会越大

真正的抄底不是抄盘子的底，而是抄市场情绪的底，目前BSC的新盘子上限都不高，没必要浪费子弹P，还是重点等二圣的发言，只要他俩带货，积压的情绪就会被瞬间点燃

老盘子虽然都在跌，但也相当于筛选了，存活下来的才有下一轮起飞的资格，目前百万以上的就剩 $MILADY 和 $BinanceAiPro 两个，筹码便宜了，赌的风险也会相对变小

现在的BSC反而是埋伏的最佳时机！

I announce that this drop is a bottomless pit

Preparing to break new lows

If Trump handles this poorly, it will be a complete mess, and the cryptocurrency market will be done for

If handled well, then we can still hold on, pretend to be strong, and drag it out before it falls again

In short, short at highs
Those thinking of buying the dip are all big fools
#ETH

USDT会被冻结很多人不懂，反问道：不是在链上吗 怎么还可以冻结呢？

实际上Circle（发行usdc的）和Tether（发行USDT的）从来就不是去中心化项目，智能合约管理员权限没有被丢弃，它可以拉黑任何链上地址

意味着地址里的对应通证没法转移，结果就是你地址里的U可以被标记是无效的U/非法的U,无法转移

除此之外，Okx 火币 币安等中心化交易所也能随时随地能冻结

不过如果是比特币、以太坊他们没办法，但当使用国家的黑客力量来打击你时一切都不好说

Every day it's back and forth, not making money, and it's exhausting.

I've also come to understand why top traders say that memes are no longer viable, because of the current market conditions. For example, with the Hakimi whale, every time you get on board at a high, it gets doused, which definitely makes it impossible for traders to play!

1. The narrative isn't particularly good.

2. The pvp is too intense, with mutual dousing.

So, I think it's better to participate in excellent narratives and pve.

The new season of the BSC chain is extremely unfriendly to friends doing the second stage.

Most of the current dealers have expectations for Alpha first. If there is no support for a few days, they will directly press the core button.

After stabilizing for a week, the dealer of $Titan felt that it couldn't go up to Alpha, and at the same time, the Binance system did not provide support for shouting orders, so the dealer directly abandoned the market.

At that time, several stable coins were still quite optimistic about $titan.
But since the dealer is no longer playing, how can BSC still be played? How can I dare to do the relay for the second stage?

I suspect this coin is related to $Fight, and $fight also stabilized for a few days. The dealer believes that the support for going up to Alpha or subsequent support will not be much, and it’s better to abandon the market directly to save money and effort.

The current situation is approximately:

1. BSC can only play big narratives, the core narratives of web2 and web3, or top narratives within the circle.
The ability to choose symbols needs to be greatly improved to reduce the number of times being cut.

2. The difficulty has increased, and the second stage cannot be casually taken on anymore.
Thinking it was stable, but if you don't look for a while, it’s directly -90%, damn it.

This is very detrimental to large funds playing BSC. It is not recommended for large funds to play BSC, as betting big on big is the most likely to lose. It can only be done on top core narratives.

Now, Cz and He Yi also do not make any meme-like statements, and there is no main storyline to play.

Alpha has also not been given for a long time, and the heights that have been reached are just average.

The book title has also played out, and after several rounds, BSC currently really has no novelty.

At the same time, the big livestock of the BSC chain still remains.
Currently, there are no core points, all are PvP.
Rest to accumulate the principal, waiting for the next big narrative.

009年1月3日，比特币网络正式上线，中本聪挖出第一个区块，即创世区块，标志着比特币的诞生。

同年，首个比特币交易发生，然而这一切已经过去17年了，早已过了遍地机会的时期，后进入（含我）无论怎么努力也是不能取得cz孙哥这样的成绩的。

普通人唯一能做的，只能在竞争中积累资本和人脉，等待属于自己的“区块链”机会。

Pre-market Review

1. Index Perspective

The index is unfolding a counterattack as expected.

Starting from the 3794 point, this wave of rebound has a first target of 3959 points.

However, it should be noted: the upward process has obstacles at every step, with insufficient volume, and the sectors have not formed a synergy; all upward movements are essentially 'virtual'.

After consecutive broad-based increases, the market has accumulated certain profit margins, and it is likely to enter the stage of: from broad increase to differentiated rotation.

2. Hotspot Direction Review

The current main line of the market is still rotating, with core directions:

1. Green Power: Huadian Liaoning Energy, Zhongli Group, Liaoning Energy

2. Photovoltaics: Huadian Liaoning Energy, Hunan Development, Zhongli Group

3. Energy Storage: Zhejiang New Energy, Tongding Interconnection, Energetic Wind Power

4. Computing Power: Aorede, Zhen Shitong

5. Optical Communication: Mingpu Optoelectronics

6. Chips: Guofeng New Materials

The characteristics are obvious: there is no absolute main line, it belongs to a rotating market.

3. Short-term Response Strategy (Thursday)

For Thursday's market, the core idea is simply four words: Be Cautious + Respond

The power direction has already reached a height (Huadian System), so it is not advisable to chase high.

Key observations on whether the computing power direction continues to advance, whether Aorede and Zhen Shitong will show sustainability.

Pay attention to some individual stocks after adjustments, such as Huasheng, to see if there are signs of stabilization.

The essence of trading: finding certainty within probabilities.

Profits of experts do not rely on talent, but on long-term, stable execution of strategies.