玲峰资本

短期底部。大周期还是大熊市。短期6万是底部。短期反弹受战争影响。看美伊以战争局势

BTC 周期魔咒：历史正在精准重演！
比特币周期规律正在全盘复制：
2015–2017 牛市： 持续 35 个月
2017–2018 熊市： 持续 12 个月
2018–2021 牛市： 持续 35 个月
2021–2022 熊市： 持续 12 个月
2022–2025 牛市： 持续 35 个月
2026–2027 熊市： 我们正身处其中

The bear market is unimaginable. Bitcoin in 2009. The first block had 50 bitcoins. After the halving in 2012. 25 bitcoins are generated every 10 minutes. About 18 months after the halving. At the end of 2013. Bitcoin broke through 1000 USD. In 2016, Bitcoin halved again. A block reward of 12.5 bitcoins every 10 minutes. After 10 months. In December 2017, Bitcoin broke through 20,000 USD. Then began a bear market cycle lasting one year. In December 2018. Bitcoin fell below 3000 USD. It corrected by 85% and then entered a three-year bull market.
The year before the halving is a great time to buy. This is an optimal buying point. In 2020. Bitcoin halved again. A block reward of 6.25. This is the 3rd halving. Then there is a pattern after the halving. Bitcoin reaches its peak 18 months after the halving. This time is very interesting. It reached 64,000 in the 12th month. But historically, it is identical, reaching a peak of 69,000 USD 18 months after the halving. Then comes a four-year halving cycle bear market. A year of sharp decline begins. This cycle can also be attributed to the Fed's money supply during the pandemic and then to the Fed's interest rate hikes. The macro economy may indeed be identical, very much in line with Bitcoin's trend. But Bitcoin has shown a classic four-year halving cycle. Then a year-long crash began. After reaching 69,000 in November 2021, it crashed to 15,500 USD in November 2022. It corrected by 77%. This is just Bitcoin correcting by 77% while others basically went to zero.
Then a three-year bull market began. In 2024. Very interesting. On January 11, 2024, Nasdaq launched BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF. On April 20, 2024, Bitcoin. Halved again. This is the 4th halving of Bitcoin, from 6.5 bitcoins to 3.125 bitcoins. The block reward every 10 minutes is halved again. Selling pressure decreases again, directly boosting the bull market. 18 months after the halving. Reached the peak. This time is also almost identical to the previous wave. In the 12th month and the 18th month, it broke through 100,000 high points respectively. But the highest point is still at 18 months after the halving. On October 6, 2025, Bitcoin broke through 126,200 USD. After reaching its historical peak, the lowest in October 2026?

History is always remarkably similar. History is exactly the same. People do not learn any lessons from history. Bitcoin halves every four years; currently, the Bitcoin block reward is 3.125 every 10 minutes. The total supply is 21 million. Almost 20 million have been mined already. It is expected to be fully mined by 2140. This time, Bitcoin will definitely drop below the previous bull market peak of 69,000. It has already begun. Each step down in the bear market must break below the previous bull market's peak. The previous peak was 69,000. Therefore, this time it will definitely drop below 69,000. Additionally, 69,000 will form a very strong support. In other words, 70,000 is a strong support level. After breaking below, there will be a decent rebound. But the long-term trend is still downward. How far down will it go? According to historical halving cycles. In December 2017, it was 20,000 and then plummeted below 3,000 in December 2018. A drop of 85%. In November 2021, Bitcoin reached 69,000 USD. Then it fell to its lowest point in a year. In November 2022, Bitcoin was at 15,500 USD. It dropped by 77%. So this time Bitcoin's drop will be around 77%, meaning Bitcoin will not drop below 30,000. However, Bitcoin will drop below 69,000 USD. If it crashes by about 65%, then the lowest point will be around 45,000 USD. When Bitcoin is around 30,000 to 60,000 USD, it is suitable for investment. At least below 60,000, the maximum loss would be 50% because 60,000 could crash to 30,000. But below 60,000 is not suitable for all-in buying. It is also not suitable to continue being bearish. Because the bottom is most likely around 30,000 to 50,000 USD. On October 6, 2025, Bitcoin's highest price will be 126,200 USD. Then it will crash for a year. Around October 2026 is when the lowest price is expected. Moreover, the market will consolidate at the bottom for a few months. Various panic emotions. A panic index around 10 can be suitable for investment. The price range is 30,000 to 60,000 USD. The timing is at the end of 2026. Then hold on until 2029. Bitcoin's price will be around 150,000 to 250,000 USD for selling. At least a 2-8 times potential. This is just for Bitcoin. We can think about how many times sol, hype, and these big players will go up. But large funds will definitely focus on Bitcoin. Because Bitcoin's market share is already 60%. If Bitcoin isn't there, how can one play with cryptocurrencies? Because all project parties just want to scam your Bitcoin. Bitcoin is the ultimate form of cryptocurrency.

BTC Cycle Curse: History is Repeating Itself Precisely!

The Bitcoin cycle pattern is being replicated in its entirety:

2015–2017 Bull Market: Lasted 35 months

2017–2018 Bear Market: Lasted 12 months

2018–2021 Bull Market: Lasted 35 months

2021–2022 Bear Market: Lasted 12 months

2022–2025 Bull Market: Lasted 35 months

2026–2027 Bear Market: We are currently in it

历史总是惊人的相似。历史一模一样。人们不会从历史上吸取任何经验教训。比特币四年减半一次，目前比特币10分钟一个区块奖励3.125个了。总量2100万个。快要挖出来2000万个了。预计2140年全部挖完。比特币这波一定会跌破上一波牛市最高位6.9万。现在开始。每一步熊市最低位，都需要跌破上一波牛市的最高点。而上一波最高点是6.9万。所以这次一定会跌破6.9万。并且在6.9万会形成一个非常强的支撑。也就是7万是一个很强的支撑。当跌破之后会有一个像样的反弹。但是大周期依然是向下。向下会达到多少？按照历史减半周期。2017年12月2万然后暴跌到2018年12月3000以下。暴跌85%。2021年11月比特币6.9万美金。暴跌一年最低点。2022年11月比特币1.55万美金。暴跌了77% 所以这次比特币跌幅会下雨77% 也就是比特币不会跌破3万。但是比特币会跌破6.9万美金。假如暴跌65%左右。那么最低位在4.5万美金左右。当比特币在3-6万美金左右适合布局。至少6万以下最多就是亏损50% 因为6万可能会暴跌到3万。但是6万以下是不适合梭哈抄底的。也不适合继续看空。因为底部最有可能在3-5万美金左右。2025年10月6号比特币最高价12.62万美金。那么暴跌一年。就是2026年10月左右是最低价格。而且行情会底部盘整几个月。各种恐慌情绪。恐慌指数10左右可以布局。价格3-6万美金。时间在2026年年底。然后一直持有到2029年。比特币价格在15-25万美金左右出货了。最少2-8倍的一个空间。这还只是比特币。我们可以想一想，sol，hype这些王炸会有多少倍呢？但大资金一定是比特币。因为比特币市场份额60%了。比特币都没有还玩数字货币呢？因为所有的项目方都只是想骗走你的比特币。比特币才是数字货币的终极形态

edgex is online with an annualized yield of 10% on 30 million usdc investments. Spot account automatic wealth management. Benchmarking the 11% product of grvt.

币安钱包 The bear market is beyond imagination. Why is gold not effective in chaotic times? What makes this situation special is Iran. The Strait of Hormuz in Iran is closed. Oil prices have risen. Inflation is severe. CPI is increasing. The Federal Reserve's need for interest rate hikes is expected to rise. Gold has no interest and no attraction. Gold has led to a crash. Therefore, we will continue to watch the fluctuations in oil. The key factor is still who controls the Strait of Hormuz.

U.S. President Trump on the 23rd eased market concerns over escalating military conflicts in the Middle East with his remarks about the Iran situation, leading to a sharp drop in international oil prices and a significant rebound in gold prices.

As of the market close that day, the price of light crude oil futures for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by $10.10, settling at $88.13 per barrel, a decline of 10.28%; the price of Brent crude oil futures for May delivery fell by $12.25, settling at $99.94 per barrel, a decline of 10.92%.

On that day, gold futures for April on the New York Mercantile Exchange rebounded significantly after hitting a 4-month low overnight. Spot gold prices briefly reached $4462 per ounce.

On the morning of the 23rd, U.S. President Trump stated on social media that the U.S. and Iran had very good and productive dialogues over the past two days to thoroughly resolve hostilities between the two countries in the Middle East. He has instructed the U.S. Department of Defense to postpone airstrikes targeting Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure by 5 days. However, Iran immediately denied any contact with the U.S.

大熊市无法想象
A rare market opportunity in 10 years. Very exciting. The market is full of twists and turns. Cherish today's market.

大熊市无法想象
Oil has recently had an inverse relationship with all investment varieties. Today, gold is $4100 an ounce. Oil has fallen below $100. Bitcoin plummeted today and then rebounded. Gold was $4100 first and is now around $4400. Next, we will continue to pay attention to oil. The panic index is at 8. $60,000 for Bitcoin is a short-term bottom, but not the bottom for this year.

下次战争开始，留着抄作业
自伊朗战争开始以来的价格上涨情况：

欧洲天然气：+85%
取暖油：+80%
布伦特原油：+54%
尿素：+48%
WTI原油：+46%
汽油：+44%
柴油：+42%
硫磺：+25%
煤炭：+24%
化肥：+23%
棕榈油：+13%
美国天然气：+8%
铁矿石：+7%
大米：+7%

The bear market is unimaginable. Bitcoin in 2009. The first block had 50 bitcoins. After the halving in 2012. 25 bitcoins are generated every 10 minutes. About 18 months after the halving. At the end of 2013. Bitcoin broke through $1000. In 2016, Bitcoin halved again. 12.5 bitcoins are rewarded every 10 minutes. After 10 months. In December 2017, Bitcoin broke through $20,000. Then began a year-long bear market cycle. In December 2018. Bitcoin fell below $3000. It corrected by 85%, and then entered a three-year bull market.
The year before the halving is a very good time to buy. This is the best buying point. In 2020. Bitcoin halved again. The reward is 6.25 bitcoins every 10 minutes. This is the 3rd halving. Then there is a pattern after the halving. Bitcoin reaches its peak 18 months after the halving. This time is very interesting. It reached 64,000 in the 12th month. But historically the same, the peak reached after 18 months post-halving is $69,000. Then comes a four-year halving bear market cycle. A year of sharp decline begins. This cycle, we can also attribute it to the Federal Reserve's easing during the pandemic, followed by the Fed's interest rate hikes. The macroeconomy may indeed be very similar, closely matching Bitcoin's trend. But Bitcoin has demonstrated a classic four-year halving cycle. Then it started a year-long sharp decline. After reaching $69,000 in November 2021, it plummeted to $15,500 in November 2022. It corrected by 77%. This is just Bitcoin correcting by 77%, while others basically went to zero.
Then it entered a three-year bull market. In 2024. Very interesting. On January 11, 2024, Nasdaq launched BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF. On April 20, 2024, Bitcoin. Halved again. This is the 4th halving of Bitcoin, from 6.5 bitcoins to 3.125 bitcoins. The reward for a block every 10 minutes is halved again. The selling pressure decreases again, directly boosting the bull market. 18 months after the halving. It reaches its peak. This time it is also basically the same as the previous wave. It breaks through $100,000 in the 12th month and the 18th month respectively. But the peak is still in the 18th month after the halving. On October 6, 2025, Bitcoin broke through $126,200. After reaching the historical highest point, what is the lowest in October 2026?

History is always remarkably similar. History is exactly the same. People do not learn any lessons from history. Bitcoin halves every four years, and currently, the Bitcoin block reward is 3.125 every 10 minutes. The total supply is 21 million. Almost 20 million have been mined. It is expected to be fully mined by 2140. This wave of Bitcoin will definitely break the previous bull market's peak of 69,000. It starts now. Every bear market's lowest point needs to break the previous bull market's highest point. The previous peak was 69,000. So this time it will definitely break 69,000. Moreover, there will be very strong support at 69,000. In other words, 70,000 is a strong support. After breaking down, there will be a decent rebound. However, the larger cycle is still downwards. How low will it go? According to the historical halving cycle. In December 2017, it was 20,000 and then plummeted below 3,000 by December 2018. A drop of 85%. In November 2021, Bitcoin reached 69,000 USD. It plummeted to its lowest point a year later. In November 2022, Bitcoin was 15,500 USD. It dropped by 77%. Therefore, this time Bitcoin's drop will be around 77%, meaning Bitcoin won't drop below 30,000. However, Bitcoin will drop below 69,000 USD. If it crashes by about 65%, then the lowest point will be around 45,000 USD. When Bitcoin is around 30,000-60,000 USD, it is suitable for positioning. At least below 60,000, the maximum loss would be 50% because 60,000 could plummet to 30,000. But below 60,000 is not suitable for all-in bottom fishing. Nor is it suitable to continue to be bearish. Because the bottom is most likely around 30,000-50,000 USD. On October 6, 2025, Bitcoin's highest price was 126,200 USD. Then after a year of plummeting, around October 2026 will be the lowest price. Moreover, the market will consolidate at the bottom for several months. Various panic emotions. A panic index around 10 can be positioned. Price range is 30,000-60,000 USD. The time is at the end of 2026. Then hold on until 2029. Bitcoin's price will be around 150,000-250,000 USD for selling. At least a space of 2-8 times. This is just Bitcoin. We can think about how many times sol and hype will go? But large funds will definitely choose Bitcoin. Because Bitcoin's market share is already 60%. If Bitcoin is not there, why play with cryptocurrency? Because all project parties just want to scam your Bitcoin. Bitcoin is the ultimate form of cryptocurrency.

Guiguzi is about manipulating people,
The Thirty-Six Stratagems are what you use when you're short on money,
The Art of War is what you use when you have money,
Cai Gen Tan is what you use to prevent being manipulated when you're feeling lofty.

比特币4年一个周期
美股是7年一个周期

1966年：信用紧缩/债市危机
1973年：石油危机 + 滞胀熊市
1980年：白银崩盘
1987年：黑色星期一
1994年：债市大屠杀
2001年：911 + 互联网泡沫破裂
2008年：全球金融危机
2015年：中国股灾 + 油价崩盘
2022年：通胀 + 加息熊市

每7年一个熊市底部，这个说法很妙，也挺准。

如果按这个来，2029年就是下一个底，而顶部就在2027-2028年。

History is always remarkably similar. History is exactly the same. People do not learn any lessons from history. Bitcoin halves every four years, and currently, Bitcoin rewards 3.125 per block every 10 minutes. The total supply is 21 million. Nearly 20 million have been mined. It is expected to be fully mined by 2140. This wave of Bitcoin will definitely break the previous bull market peak of 69,000. It starts now. Every bear market low needs to break the previous bull market high. The previous peak was 69,000. So this time it will definitely break 69,000. And at 69,000, a very strong support will form. That is, 70,000 is a very strong support. After breaking, there will be a decent rebound. However, the larger cycle is still downward. How low will it go? According to the historical halving cycle. In December 2017, it was 20,000 and then plummeted below 3,000 in December 2018. A drop of 85%. In November 2021, Bitcoin reached 69,000 USD. Then it dropped to the lowest point in a year. In November 2022, Bitcoin was 15,500 USD. It dropped by 77%. So this time, Bitcoin's drop will be around 77%, meaning Bitcoin will not fall below 30,000. However, Bitcoin will fall below 69,000 USD. If it drops around 65%, then the lowest point will be around 45,000 USD. When Bitcoin is around 30,000 to 60,000 USD, it is suitable for positioning. At least below 60,000, the maximum loss is 50%, because 60,000 might drop to 30,000. But below 60,000 is not suitable for all-in bottom fishing. It is also not suitable to continue being bearish. Because the bottom is most likely around 30,000 to 50,000 USD. On October 6, 2025, Bitcoin's highest price will be 126,200 USD. Then one year of plummeting. That is, around October 2026 will be the lowest price. Moreover, the market will consolidate at the bottom for several months. Various panic emotions. A panic index around 10 can be positioned. The price is 30,000 to 60,000 USD. The time is at the end of 2026. Then hold until 2029. Bitcoin's price will be around 150,000 to 250,000 USD to sell. A space of at least 2 to 8 times. This is just Bitcoin. We can think about how many times sol, hype, and these explosive coins will have? But the big funds will definitely be Bitcoin. Because Bitcoin's market share is already 60%. If Bitcoin is not there, how can we play digital currencies? Because all project parties just want to take your Bitcoin. Bitcoin is the ultimate form of digital currency.

Short-term 60,000 bottom. The bear market is unimaginable
History is always remarkably similar. History is exactly the same. People will not learn any lessons from history. Bitcoin halves every four years, and currently, the Bitcoin block reward is 3.125 every 10 minutes. The total supply is 21 million. Almost 20 million have been mined. It is expected to be fully mined by 2140. This time, Bitcoin will definitely drop below the previous bull market high of 69,000. It starts now. Every bear market's lowest point must break below the previous bull market's highest point. And the previous highest point is 69,000. So this time it will definitely drop below 69,000. Moreover, 69,000 will form a very strong support. That is, 70,000 is a very strong support. After breaking below, there will be a decent rebound. However, the larger cycle is still downward. How low will it go? According to historical halving cycles. In December 2017, it was 20,000 and then plummeted to below 3,000 in December 2018. A drop of 85%. In November 2021, Bitcoin reached 69,000 USD. It fell to the lowest point a year later. In November 2022, Bitcoin was 15,500 USD. It fell by 77%. So this time, Bitcoin's drop will be about 77%, meaning Bitcoin will not drop below 30,000. But Bitcoin will drop below 69,000 USD. If it falls by about 65%, then the lowest point will be around 45,000 USD. When Bitcoin is around 30,000 to 60,000 USD, it is suitable for positioning. At least below 60,000, the maximum loss would be 50% because 60,000 may plummet to 30,000. However, below 60,000 is not suitable for all-in bottom fishing. It is also not suitable to continue being bearish. Because the bottom is most likely around 30,000 to 50,000 USD. On October 6, 2025, Bitcoin's highest price will be 126,200 USD. After a year of plummeting, the lowest price will be around October 2026. Moreover, the market will consolidate at the bottom for several months, with various panic emotions. A fear index of about 10 can be positioned. Prices between 30,000 to 60,000 USD. The time is at the end of 2026. Then hold until 2029. Bitcoin prices will be around 150,000 to 250,000 USD for selling. At least a 2-8 times space. This is just Bitcoin. We can think about how many times sol, hype, and other bombs will have? But big funds must be in Bitcoin. Because Bitcoin's market share is already 60%. If Bitcoin is not there, why play with digital currencies? Because all project parties only want to scam your Bitcoin. Bitcoin is the ultimate form of digital currency.