RubyLee
Mình đã bước sang năm thứ 8 tham gia thị trường. Cũng không phải nhà đầu tư giỏi, chỉ là có nhiều kinh nghiệm chút thôi. Vẫn đang học hỏi và tiến bộ mỗi ngày.
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Last year, the technical analysis showed a decline, so I also overlooked it and didn't analyze it deeply.
But today, I feel interested in this coin. Recently, I accidentally read some posts that mentioned this coin has been split several hundred times, and people should also participate in the lottery and such. So, I want to discuss this coin in more depth as well as the general trend of coins.
Should I buy $FIL to hold or not? Personally, I assert that no.
Looking at the chart showing several hundred splits, it seems to have decreased a lot already, so buying it now for x10 would be good, right? But the question here is what is the motivation for it to increase? It has already split several hundred times, but its market capitalization is still at 1.1B, which is a relatively high valuation. For example, if buying at this price increases x10, then the market cap would be 11B, right? Is that really reasonable??
Not to mention, this coin's chart has broken the last support at $3.6 and has become a trend coin. After that, it tried to test to return for many months but failed. And look, since it became a trend coin, it has managed to split 4-5 times even though the market still hasn't really hit the bottom. So when the market hits a real bottom, how many more times will this coin split?? Because right now it really doesn't have a bottom anymore; it can drift down as much as it wants 😐😐😐
If we talk about potential, the current revenue is only $4/day. Even with a revenue increase of 1000 times the current level, meaning $4000/day, the project would only be valued at a maximum of $72M. Look at the current market cap and see how many times it is greater than $72M 😑😑😑
If you're going to comment that any project with revenue is being valued based on revenue, then block me, I'm not free to argue.
Currently, there are many projects with steadily increasing profits year by year. As for those worthless projects, they are just returning to dust.
But today, I feel interested in this coin. Recently, I accidentally read some posts that mentioned this coin has been split several hundred times, and people should also participate in the lottery and such. So, I want to discuss this coin in more depth as well as the general trend of coins.
Should I buy $FIL to hold or not? Personally, I assert that no.
Looking at the chart showing several hundred splits, it seems to have decreased a lot already, so buying it now for x10 would be good, right? But the question here is what is the motivation for it to increase? It has already split several hundred times, but its market capitalization is still at 1.1B, which is a relatively high valuation. For example, if buying at this price increases x10, then the market cap would be 11B, right? Is that really reasonable??
Not to mention, this coin's chart has broken the last support at $3.6 and has become a trend coin. After that, it tried to test to return for many months but failed. And look, since it became a trend coin, it has managed to split 4-5 times even though the market still hasn't really hit the bottom. So when the market hits a real bottom, how many more times will this coin split?? Because right now it really doesn't have a bottom anymore; it can drift down as much as it wants 😐😐😐
If we talk about potential, the current revenue is only $4/day. Even with a revenue increase of 1000 times the current level, meaning $4000/day, the project would only be valued at a maximum of $72M. Look at the current market cap and see how many times it is greater than $72M 😑😑😑
If you're going to comment that any project with revenue is being valued based on revenue, then block me, I'm not free to argue.
Currently, there are many projects with steadily increasing profits year by year. As for those worthless projects, they are just returning to dust.
$FIL the indicator seems to be a little beautiful.
But the monthly frame creates a head and shoulders pattern, breaking the monthly support already. It also makes quite an effort to break resistance to come back but seems not very successful @@
For #Blacklist
But the monthly frame creates a head and shoulders pattern, breaking the monthly support already. It also makes quite an effort to break resistance to come back but seems not very successful @@
For #Blacklist
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I have changed my investment perspective for this year. Because the January candle closed very poorly, I have completely dismissed the possibility of the market experiencing a weekly rebound.
Top coins have broken through strong support, notably $SOL has completed a head and shoulders pattern on the monthly chart, $AAVE has broken through the diagonal trendline with the monthly candle, $LINK has broken through the 11.7-12$ zone. Therefore, there is no weekly rebound here at all. From the February 2026 monthly candle onward, there will only be a rise to retest the already broken strong support before looking for a new bottom.
Combining with my horoscope, from January 19, 2026, to March 18, 2026, is a difficult time for me to make money. From March 19, 2026, to June 14, 2026, is the time when I can easily make money. In the past, when I analyzed by month and year, the times I could easily make money according to my horoscope always coincided with uptrend periods or rebounds, while difficult times corresponded to years and months of downtrends. (because this is my main profession)
I believe that the market will continue to decline until nearly the end of this first quarter, and it may even create a long-term bottom in this first quarter. The second quarter will be a time of price increase, potentially a rebound. Thus, the 6-month candle for the first half of the year will be a long-legged candle. The third quarter will likely be the time when the entire market creates a long-term bottom (or retests the long-term bottom created in the first quarter to form a double bottom pattern). After that, the market will enter a real uptrend.
During this downtrend season, I think top coins will die in droves. This will be a very catastrophic coin cleansing season.
For hold coins, temporarily there is none on my list that closed the last month's candle beautifully enough to confirm exiting the downtrend. So I will wait a bit longer.
Top coins have broken through strong support, notably $SOL has completed a head and shoulders pattern on the monthly chart, $AAVE has broken through the diagonal trendline with the monthly candle, $LINK has broken through the 11.7-12$ zone. Therefore, there is no weekly rebound here at all. From the February 2026 monthly candle onward, there will only be a rise to retest the already broken strong support before looking for a new bottom.
Combining with my horoscope, from January 19, 2026, to March 18, 2026, is a difficult time for me to make money. From March 19, 2026, to June 14, 2026, is the time when I can easily make money. In the past, when I analyzed by month and year, the times I could easily make money according to my horoscope always coincided with uptrend periods or rebounds, while difficult times corresponded to years and months of downtrends. (because this is my main profession)
I believe that the market will continue to decline until nearly the end of this first quarter, and it may even create a long-term bottom in this first quarter. The second quarter will be a time of price increase, potentially a rebound. Thus, the 6-month candle for the first half of the year will be a long-legged candle. The third quarter will likely be the time when the entire market creates a long-term bottom (or retests the long-term bottom created in the first quarter to form a double bottom pattern). After that, the market will enter a real uptrend.
During this downtrend season, I think top coins will die in droves. This will be a very catastrophic coin cleansing season.
For hold coins, temporarily there is none on my list that closed the last month's candle beautifully enough to confirm exiting the downtrend. So I will wait a bit longer.
Summary of the investment perspective for this year based on my technical analysis from the first half of the year.
Just like before, this year is a year of downtrend. $BTC and top coins will hit the bottom by the end of Q2 or the beginning of Q3 this year. Currently, it is a corrective wave on a weekly timeframe from the beginning of the year. Therefore, I will not buy and hold. At least there must be signs of a bottom being formed and the entire market stabilizing before I consider buying and holding.
However, it is not that there are no opportunities to buy and hold coins in the first half of this year. Although 99% of altcoin charts have broken their bottoms and the major patterns are completely invalidated. But I think capital will flow from downtrend coins to a few coins that will run in an uptrend.
Regarding new coins, I found $CHZ and $EDU . Both have broken the downtrend pattern and successfully returned to retest on the weekly and monthly frames. #CHZ shows signs of wanting to exit the downtrend on the weekly frame; we just need to wait for this week's candle close to fully confirm it. #EDU successfully retested the weekly and monthly frames, and the indicators on these frames look good. However, it is still running sideways at the bottom in a box. We need to close the weekly candle above the 23 area to confirm the end of the sideways bottom and enter an uptrend.
Regarding stock coins, in my opinion, the anonymous system will still lead this year. Because I use TradingView to look at larger timeframe charts like 3m, 6m, 12m, these coins have all been in a downtrend for 7-8 years and have been in a sideways bottom for 3-4 years now.
Specifically, #ZECUSDT has completed waves 1-2-3, currently running wave 4, still missing the wave 5 increase. #DASH seems about to break out of the downtrend, no signs of completing wave 1 for the 3m timeframe yet.
#zen 's monthly pattern still has not broken, seems like it has not yet run wave 1.
Conclusion: There are a few coins that may run in an uptrend, but the number is very small. The remaining 99% of altcoins will hit rock bottom this year, even including top coins.
Just like before, this year is a year of downtrend. $BTC and top coins will hit the bottom by the end of Q2 or the beginning of Q3 this year. Currently, it is a corrective wave on a weekly timeframe from the beginning of the year. Therefore, I will not buy and hold. At least there must be signs of a bottom being formed and the entire market stabilizing before I consider buying and holding.
However, it is not that there are no opportunities to buy and hold coins in the first half of this year. Although 99% of altcoin charts have broken their bottoms and the major patterns are completely invalidated. But I think capital will flow from downtrend coins to a few coins that will run in an uptrend.
Regarding new coins, I found $CHZ and $EDU . Both have broken the downtrend pattern and successfully returned to retest on the weekly and monthly frames. #CHZ shows signs of wanting to exit the downtrend on the weekly frame; we just need to wait for this week's candle close to fully confirm it. #EDU successfully retested the weekly and monthly frames, and the indicators on these frames look good. However, it is still running sideways at the bottom in a box. We need to close the weekly candle above the 23 area to confirm the end of the sideways bottom and enter an uptrend.
Regarding stock coins, in my opinion, the anonymous system will still lead this year. Because I use TradingView to look at larger timeframe charts like 3m, 6m, 12m, these coins have all been in a downtrend for 7-8 years and have been in a sideways bottom for 3-4 years now.
Specifically, #ZECUSDT has completed waves 1-2-3, currently running wave 4, still missing the wave 5 increase. #DASH seems about to break out of the downtrend, no signs of completing wave 1 for the 3m timeframe yet.
#zen 's monthly pattern still has not broken, seems like it has not yet run wave 1.
Conclusion: There are a few coins that may run in an uptrend, but the number is very small. The remaining 99% of altcoins will hit rock bottom this year, even including top coins.
$BTC complete the head and shoulder and break the trendline on the daily frame, the 3D frame is already done.
So now, shorting will be safer.
It's a bit disappointing because many coins like $SUI $LINK haven't bounced yet. But perhaps with the illiquid market, it can only bounce back to here. 🤧🤧🤧
So now, shorting will be safer.
It's a bit disappointing because many coins like $SUI $LINK haven't bounced yet. But perhaps with the illiquid market, it can only bounce back to here. 🤧🤧🤧
$BTC If the daily candle closes below 68k, it will be quite bad. Because it will create a head and shoulders pattern diagonally on the daily chart.
To see how today's candle closes. If it breaks below 68k, one must be cautious, as it might be the end of the retracement.
To see how today's candle closes. If it breaks below 68k, one must be cautious, as it might be the end of the retracement.
$CETUS is still running the recovery wave quite evenly.
This rhythm may have $SUI as the top lead coin for the recovery wave 🤔🤔🤔 Anyway, $CETUS is also a dex defi system #SUİ .
This rhythm may have $SUI as the top lead coin for the recovery wave 🤔🤔🤔 Anyway, $CETUS is also a dex defi system #SUİ .
$CETUS the frame is running the accumulation flag.
Breaking above the flag will lead to testing the resistance areas above.
The daily frame resistance has the area of 3200-3400.
The diagonal trendline of the 3D frame has also broken long ago, so if a strong rebound wave occurs, it may test the 3D frame resistance in the area of 6000-6600.
Breaking above the flag will lead to testing the resistance areas above.
The daily frame resistance has the area of 3200-3400.
The diagonal trendline of the 3D frame has also broken long ago, so if a strong rebound wave occurs, it may test the 3D frame resistance in the area of 6000-6600.
$BTC The 3D candle is quite beautiful, it will probably come back to test 69-70k and then run the wave rebound.
Before the technical analysis, there were too many coins and now none of them have completed their wave yet. So there's really nothing to write about 😂😂😂
But I think the new wave of recovery is already underway 🤔🤔🤔
But I think the new wave of recovery is already underway 🤔🤔🤔
$IOTX too fast. Just reached the confluence area in 1 h1 candle already 😂😂😂
Honestly, I didn't have time to buy this one 😐😐😐 I was busy buying $APT already
Honestly, I didn't have time to buy this one 😐😐😐 I was busy buying $APT already
$IOTX is still running below the daily trendline, there are quite a few resistances above.
Breaking the daily trendline will lead to the area 640-650, which is the confluence of the nearest minor resistance and the major diagonal resistance in the 3D frame. Closing the 3D candle breaking this area will then look for the larger horizontal resistance at the area of 1250.
Basically, it seems like quite a long way 😂😂😂
Save this one, it might run for a wave after the last one 🤔🤔🤔
Breaking the daily trendline will lead to the area 640-650, which is the confluence of the nearest minor resistance and the major diagonal resistance in the 3D frame. Closing the 3D candle breaking this area will then look for the larger horizontal resistance at the area of 1250.
Basically, it seems like quite a long way 😂😂😂
Save this one, it might run for a wave after the last one 🤔🤔🤔
$APT break out khung day.
Surely there will be a rhythm back to 1.03-1.04 for testing
Surely there will be a rhythm back to 1.03-1.04 for testing
$APT The weekly frame seems to be breaking out of the diagonal resistance.
The daily frame needs to close the candle above the $1 area to confirm the completion of the cup and handle pattern, escaping from the bottom sideways area. At that point, it will have a move back to test $1 and then up to test the nearest resistance at $1.4.
That's it, I don't dare to dream far to the $4 area. Let's first get to $1.4 and then we can think further.
The daily frame needs to close the candle above the $1 area to confirm the completion of the cup and handle pattern, escaping from the bottom sideways area. At that point, it will have a move back to test $1 and then up to test the nearest resistance at $1.4.
That's it, I don't dare to dream far to the $4 area. Let's first get to $1.4 and then we can think further.
$CAKE stoploss completed and then went up 😐😐😐
Have to catch again at 1.388$ 🤡🤡🤡
Have to catch again at 1.388$ 🤡🤡🤡
$CAKE break out diagonal trendline on h4 frame.
There has been a successful test of the area 1.36.
Currently, it is uncertain whether there will be a large retracement wave, but in the short term, there will be a test of the peak of the trendline at the level of 1.5-1.55$.
Stoploss at 1.35 means 2%. Thus, the minimum R:R ratio can reach 5:1 already. Worth buying, right? If tighter, with stoploss at 1.36, it is 1.2%, then R:R can even be 8:1 🤔🤔🤔
There has been a successful test of the area 1.36.
Currently, it is uncertain whether there will be a large retracement wave, but in the short term, there will be a test of the peak of the trendline at the level of 1.5-1.55$.
Stoploss at 1.35 means 2%. Thus, the minimum R:R ratio can reach 5:1 already. Worth buying, right? If tighter, with stoploss at 1.36, it is 1.2%, then R:R can even be 8:1 🤔🤔🤔
$PHA On the day of the reversal cluster down.
The new h4 frame pierced 375, currently testing again before going down further. It is expected to test the support below in the area of 350-338
The new h4 frame pierced 375, currently testing again before going down further. It is expected to test the support below in the area of 350-338
$TAO Closing the 3D candle creates a strong bearish reversal cluster.
Today's candle has shown an upward movement testing the upper boundary. Therefore, I will consider shorting this one. The stop loss at 276 will be around ~2%.
Minimum likely to go back to 250, otherwise, it might even drop to 220-210 due to the strong bearish reversal on the 3D frame.
At 250, the R:R is 4:1, and at 220, it is 10:1. Reasonable to enter a trade 🤔🤔🤔
Upon closer inspection, I might have to wait longer because if it tests the 3D candle that closes this morning, it could peak at 282. Waiting for a clear reversal signal on the smaller frame.
Today's candle has shown an upward movement testing the upper boundary. Therefore, I will consider shorting this one. The stop loss at 276 will be around ~2%.
Minimum likely to go back to 250, otherwise, it might even drop to 220-210 due to the strong bearish reversal on the 3D frame.
At 250, the R:R is 4:1, and at 220, it is 10:1. Reasonable to enter a trade 🤔🤔🤔
Upon closer inspection, I might have to wait longer because if it tests the 3D candle that closes this morning, it could peak at 282. Waiting for a clear reversal signal on the smaller frame.
$IOTX closed above the 550 range on the daily, 3D, and weekly frames. The weekly candle closed confirming the exit from the sideways area.
Break out of the small trendline on the daily frame with the 3D candle as well.
Currently, there is a pullback to test before going up again. This one can be bought. 🤔🤔🤔
Waiting to buy at 540 with a stop loss at 530 for something close. Buying here would mean a stop loss of 3-3.5%, which is too high 😥😥😥
Break out of the small trendline on the daily frame with the 3D candle as well.
Currently, there is a pullback to test before going up again. This one can be bought. 🤔🤔🤔
Waiting to buy at 540 with a stop loss at 530 for something close. Buying here would mean a stop loss of 3-3.5%, which is too high 😥😥😥
$IOTX is still running below the daily trendline, there are quite a few resistances above.
Breaking the daily trendline will lead to the area 640-650, which is the confluence of the nearest minor resistance and the major diagonal resistance in the 3D frame. Closing the 3D candle breaking this area will then look for the larger horizontal resistance at the area of 1250.
Basically, it seems like quite a long way 😂😂😂
Save this one, it might run for a wave after the last one 🤔🤔🤔
Breaking the daily trendline will lead to the area 640-650, which is the confluence of the nearest minor resistance and the major diagonal resistance in the 3D frame. Closing the 3D candle breaking this area will then look for the larger horizontal resistance at the area of 1250.
Basically, it seems like quite a long way 😂😂😂
Save this one, it might run for a wave after the last one 🤔🤔🤔
$CAKE break out diagonal trendline on h4 frame.
There has been a successful test of the area 1.36.
Currently, it is uncertain whether there will be a large retracement wave, but in the short term, there will be a test of the peak of the trendline at the level of 1.5-1.55$.
Stoploss at 1.35 means 2%. Thus, the minimum R:R ratio can reach 5:1 already. Worth buying, right? If tighter, with stoploss at 1.36, it is 1.2%, then R:R can even be 8:1 🤔🤔🤔
There has been a successful test of the area 1.36.
Currently, it is uncertain whether there will be a large retracement wave, but in the short term, there will be a test of the peak of the trendline at the level of 1.5-1.55$.
Stoploss at 1.35 means 2%. Thus, the minimum R:R ratio can reach 5:1 already. Worth buying, right? If tighter, with stoploss at 1.36, it is 1.2%, then R:R can even be 8:1 🤔🤔🤔
$CETUS close 3D candle break small resistance area.
Currently testing the area 2100.
I will wait to buy like that. Anyway, the stop loss at 2100 is quite close. The R:R ratio is very nice.
Currently testing the area 2100.
I will wait to buy like that. Anyway, the stop loss at 2100 is quite close. The R:R ratio is very nice.
$CETUS the frame is running the accumulation flag.
Breaking above the flag will lead to testing the resistance areas above.
The daily frame resistance has the area of 3200-3400.
The diagonal trendline of the 3D frame has also broken long ago, so if a strong rebound wave occurs, it may test the 3D frame resistance in the area of 6000-6600.
Breaking above the flag will lead to testing the resistance areas above.
The daily frame resistance has the area of 3200-3400.
The diagonal trendline of the 3D frame has also broken long ago, so if a strong rebound wave occurs, it may test the 3D frame resistance in the area of 6000-6600.
$BTC This weekly candle closing like this is bad.
Maybe next week there will be a move to test the diagonal trendline on the daily chart around the 66k3 area.
Breaking through this area means it's over, there's no retracement wave anymore 😐😐😐
Maybe next week there will be a move to test the diagonal trendline on the daily chart around the 66k3 area.
Breaking through this area means it's over, there's no retracement wave anymore 😐😐😐
$DEGO must close the h1 candle above the 450 area to break the diagonal resistance and then continue to the 500-510 area.
Actually, the h4 timeframe indicator gives a bullish signal, but it cannot be certain because it's in a downtrend, and this one is also under surveillance. So just trade as the candles form, because sometimes if news of a sudden delisting comes out, the stop-loss won't be quick enough 🤷🤷🤷
Actually, the h4 timeframe indicator gives a bullish signal, but it cannot be certain because it's in a downtrend, and this one is also under surveillance. So just trade as the candles form, because sometimes if news of a sudden delisting comes out, the stop-loss won't be quick enough 🤷🤷🤷
$CETUS seems to really be breaking.
Waiting for it to return 1950-1930 for testing then catch it 🤔🤔🤔
Waiting for it to return 1950-1930 for testing then catch it 🤔🤔🤔
$CETUS has signs of a break in the upward trend.
Waiting for the H4 candle to close properly before buying when it comes back to test it 🤔🤔🤔
Waiting for the H4 candle to close properly before buying when it comes back to test it 🤔🤔🤔
$CETUS has signs of a break in the upward trend.
Waiting for the H4 candle to close properly before buying when it comes back to test it 🤔🤔🤔
Waiting for the H4 candle to close properly before buying when it comes back to test it 🤔🤔🤔
$CETUS the frame is running the accumulation flag.
Breaking above the flag will lead to testing the resistance areas above.
The daily frame resistance has the area of 3200-3400.
The diagonal trendline of the 3D frame has also broken long ago, so if a strong rebound wave occurs, it may test the 3D frame resistance in the area of 6000-6600.
Breaking above the flag will lead to testing the resistance areas above.
The daily frame resistance has the area of 3200-3400.
The diagonal trendline of the 3D frame has also broken long ago, so if a strong rebound wave occurs, it may test the 3D frame resistance in the area of 6000-6600.
$DEGO I went back in without thinking it would rise so quickly. I couldn't reach 500, but getting to 476 is pretty close.
At that time, I was too busy with makeup to notice; when I entered, I saw it shoot up and then drop right away. So I could only lock in a price of 416. Well, actually, that's still okay; I entered at a price of 390 x2, which gave about 13%. It's just that I lost a bit of profit, but after subtracting the loss from the stop-loss order, I'm still in profit. So that's good 😗😗😗
At that time, I was too busy with makeup to notice; when I entered, I saw it shoot up and then drop right away. So I could only lock in a price of 416. Well, actually, that's still okay; I entered at a price of 390 x2, which gave about 13%. It's just that I lost a bit of profit, but after subtracting the loss from the stop-loss order, I'm still in profit. So that's good 😗😗😗
$DEGO I just hit stoploss earlier.
Let's wait for a break of the triangle in the 390 area to long again, stoploss closer like this 🤔🤔🤔
Let's wait for a break of the triangle in the 390 area to long again, stoploss closer like this 🤔🤔🤔
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