九烨加密论-大空头版

1. BTC/ETH has basically met the conditions for accelerated decline at the daily chart level. Although the current price of 66.5K is lower than our last short position of 70K, the certainty is much higher; the accelerated decline still requires the cooperation of hourly chart driven by 'events'. As for what events, they will happen randomly; if something is destined to happen, it doesn’t matter which event is the trigger, and there is a lot of randomness.

2. PAXG gold token basically fluctuates around 4400. The weekly chart adjustment is the third indication, and the following weeks will take place against this backdrop, with the pressure level at 4700. This is a long adjustment cycle, expected to complete in May-June. At that time, the Federal Reserve Chairman will change, and the market will be filled with huge volatility, as well as enormous opportunities.

3. CRCL has already reached 91.8U and has started to consolidate again. This is the neckline, and we mentioned it a few weeks ago. Now that the price has reached this position, it should not be surprising; consolidation will definitely occur here. HYPE remains as strong as ever. Recently, we saw someone say they would unlock 300 million (already unlocked). It now seems to be worthless information; worthless information is like fried food or instant noodles, although it lacks nutrition, it is appealing, tasty, and satisfies human nature.

The market is fluctuating!

1. The BTC hourly chart has gone up and down again, with the moving averages alternating between bullish and bearish patterns. The short, medium, and long-term moving averages are intertwining and crossing each other, which is very unfavorable for trend traders, but it presents opportunities for range traders. The short-term resistance level is 69.1K.

2. On the daily chart, BTC had a medium bearish candle yesterday, showing considerable strength, while the fast and slow lines have once again crossed below the zero-axis. Only a price break below the zero-axis would be a real break; this will take another two days, and the result will come out soon. Those who are conservative can wait for the hourly chart moving averages to consolidate before choosing a direction, otherwise, there will be back-and-forth stop-loss triggers.

3. The price of PAXG has once again broken 4400, with this round of rebound reaching 4600 points. However, it is also fluctuating around 4400 afterward. The adjustment at the weekly chart level is not going to be quick; it requires more time and patience. Boldly predicting, it may coincide with the time BTC reaches its bottom.

4. The price of CRCL is fluctuating between 100-91, closely watching the directional choice opportunity after the daily chart moving averages consolidate near 91. The price trend of this cryptocurrency is severely correlated; the perspective of HYPE on the daily chart remains unchanged. Currently, it is one of the few strong coins, with support levels to watch at 35.5U and the lower boundary of the upward channel.

Be cautious about shorting BTC, the HYPE long-short conversion has been completed.

1. The current price of BTC is 71.2K, and it cannot be shorted now. Previously, our short positions at 69-70K have already hit the stop-loss level, but the current position is not suitable for shorting, and the rebound may pick up pace again, similarly for ETH.

2. The trend of HYPE on the daily chart, in my opinion, has completed the long-short conversion. On the weekly chart, it is still just beginning to show signs. If you are a spot trader, HYPE must be allocated, and do not short it, as the risks of shorting outweigh those of going long.

3. PAXG gold token has fallen below the bull-bear line for the first time since it took off in February 2024, at a critical level of 4400U. I can't say the bull market is over, but the adjustment in PAXG's intensity and duration will be greater than at any time after 2024.

CRCL has dropped, and PAXG has risen.

1. CRCL has finally come down, dropping 20% yesterday. The volatility of the US stock market is comparable to that of the crypto world. The 91.8U we have been thinking about is getting closer. This position represents the neck line and is a very important support level. If you want to enter the market, you can try buying in.

2. PAXG gold tokens have passed through without incident, and the cost of 4400 has finally turned profitable, with the current price at 4540U. Therefore, Jiu Ge's view remains the same as yesterday; 4150U might be the low point for this week's chart adjustment. For a while, it is likely to fluctuate around 4150U as the base price, with movements mainly around 4400.

3. BTC's short position between 69-70K has been fluctuating between profit and loss for several days. Initially, it was thought that the fast and slow lines would cross the zero axis and begin to accelerate downward. However, based on the K-line from the last two days, it seems there may be another rebound. If the price is near the cost price, the short position may temporarily exit and observe.

Anyone who disturbs the trading mindset is poison!

1. Every time you open the square or X, you see that most posts are in fanmai anxiety, which means what you see more is exacerbating our greed and fear. Trading is inherently counterintuitive. If you see someone making a lot of money by bottom-fishing or someone else making a lot from contracts, it will lead more people to trade emotionally and impulsively. (Basically all marketing costs)

2. The only bullish signal for BTC yesterday was that the fast and slow lines were on the zero axis, which means that this situation is unlikely to form an accelerating downward trend; the timing is not yet ripe. The pressure area on the hourly chart is 70K, where the moving average system will entangle a bit. Pay attention to the directional choice after the moving averages converge in the next two days (the general direction is downward, and we need resonance signals on the hourly chart; if the hourly chart chooses to go up, it indicates that the rebound will continue).

3. I thought that 4400 for PAXG yesterday was a significant support level (neckline), and I also suggested trying to buy in. Who knew it dropped from 4600 to 4150 in one go? However, the current price is still hovering around 4400.

Yesterday's daily chart closed with a hammer line, and the lower shadow is incredibly long. Unless something unexpected happens, the lowest point of this hammer line is likely the low for the past few months, a very standard PB signal. My opinion is to still hold onto the 4400 chips.

Weekly Chart Analysis | Precious Metals Mid-term Adjustment, BTC Synchronously Declining

1. PAXG/XAG can confirm that the weekly chart level adjustment is taking place. It is still too early to say that the bull market has ended, but the price has already fallen below the daily chart's bull-bear dividing line. If there is a position, it should mainly be light, or a tentative position can be built if the price drops to the neckline. However, this time one might need to be prepared for a break below previous lows, referencing the decision line on the weekly chart at 3936/55.

2. BTC/ETH should have entered the latter half of the bear market. The bearish momentum on the weekly chart has clearly weakened. This weakening does not mean that the bearish force has stopped, but rather that it is weakening in relation to the previous downward momentum. It should not be understood as meaning that it won't create new lows; this is not contradictory.

Even if the fast and slow lines form a golden cross below the zero axis, it does not affect the price from making new lows; rather, at that time, the emergence of new lows is more about digging a golden pit. Therefore, the last round of significant declines may be completed between April and June. Are you ready?

3. The fast and slow lines on the BTC daily chart have formed a death cross near the zero axis for the second day. This is probably the bearish signal that Jiu Ge has been waiting for over the past two weeks. I don't know if you executed the bearish suggestions from yesterday and the day before. If you did, I still suggest holding on; set the stop-loss at 71.5K, as the probability of profit is relatively high.

4. Pay attention to HYPE at 35.5, CRCL at 91.8U, be patient.

One Yin Through Three | Cautiously Accelerating Downward

1. The daily chart of BTC has crossed three, and the corresponding fast and slow lines have confirmed a death cross. The only bullish signal is that it is still above the zero axis, so the risk is already very high. From the hourly chart, the long bearish candlestick has broken below the previous low, which synchronously feels the bearish momentum is building up. If shorting at 70K, it would be a good opportunity, with a stop-loss at 71.5K. The ETH trend is the same as BTC.

2. PAXG has reached the neckline, which is also the critical boundary line between bulls and bears at 4400U. If it breaks below, a double top will form, so the support at 4400 is relatively strong. If buying at this moment, it would be a good entry point to consider building a position. Fortunately, a reminder to exit and reduce positions was given above 5000 points, seeing risks and acting promptly; the longer it drags on, the more unfavorable it becomes.

3. The recent rally of CRCL will also end with the decline of BTC, but the ninth brother believes it will be difficult to return to the last low of 50U. Currently, there are two key points at 91.8U and 65.5U. If one day Bitcoin hits 50K, CRCL should also be a good buying point, referring to the two key levels mentioned above.

In a bear market, the downward space for BTC has at most doubled, and it may stop falling at 50K. The space is limited, and to reach that position, time is an even more ruthless 'big player'. Whether in contracts or spot trading, it will wear down your patience and wash away your chips.

Therefore, in a bear market, it is even more important to protect your bullets.

This time the adjustment cycle for gold is at the weekly chart level, belonging to a medium-term adjustment, with an adjustment period of 2-4 months. If we start counting from this week, the adjustment will end around June or July, so there won't be much good performance in these months. At the same time, those who are optimistic about gold's future price trends will also create good entry opportunities in these months, with corresponding key price points of 4400-3900.

I believe CRCL is the barometer of the cryptocurrency market. As BTC rises and falls, CRCL's price also begins to retreat, and it is about to enter a daily chart level adjustment, waiting for the direction choice after the moving averages converge. As mentioned yesterday, HYPE should pay attention to the short-term support at 35.5U.

BTC is between the first line, and it still appears to be slightly bearish. The daily chart will change this week, and the change here is: either a new downward trend forms, or it stops falling and continues a weak rebound, but it won't behave like the past two days where it weakened without a clear main downward trend, and the rebound was powerless.

Trading Advice: My current main trading strategy is to target varieties I am optimistic about and wait for opportunities during sharp declines, and I will not chase high prices.

Finally, adjustments are about to be made!

1. The key support for HYPE is at 35.5U, and this position can be considered one of the buying points. The second buying point is at 29U, which is the previous key support, so this time the price of 35.5 may break down and then recover.

2. I believe the current round of BTC rebound has ended. The current price has once again broken the life line, and the price trend this week is likely to fluctuate below 70K until an accelerated decline occurs. Therefore, it's time to set up short positions between 70K and 74K.

3. PAXG gold has dropped to 4600 points. The previous round rose to 5500 points, and not selling in time was due to the desire for a bigger result; ultimately, there were still some floating losses when gold was sold. The reflection on this point is: A. Rapid increases driven by events should be realized in a timely manner; B. Swing trading has more practical significance for trading.

HYPE VS ASTER The outcome is clear! BTC's cautious rebound is nearing its end.

1. HYPE is currently priced at 41U, having doubled from the bottom. The comfortable entry point for this coin is around 30-26U. However, that drop was indeed a false alarm; although the position was reduced, there is still a certain amount of spot holdings. If there’s a sudden drop later, pay attention to HYPE's allocation.

2. ASTER has also doubled, but it doubled downward. A month ago it was 0.70 and now it’s still 0.70. This coin has indeed deceived many people, mainly based on its platform's marketing tactics, collaborating with many marketing influencers for promotion. This reminds me of the time when Musk and Yang Yuanqing from Lenovo were both in the spotlight—one focused on products and the other on marketing, with the marketer looking down on the product-focused individual.

Because at that time, Lenovo's market share was indeed very large, mainly based on the demographic dividend of China's large population, which did not necessarily reflect that it was truly a valuable company. Now, Musk and Yang Yuanqing are worlds apart, enough said.

3. Focusing on product performance is what truly matters; everything else is just flashy gimmicks. HYPE is still promising. If ASTER is really good, then let it prove itself through results instead of just selling sentiment to retail investors.

4. BTC's rise is nearing its end, and the result should come out soon—either it will continue to rebound or enter a downward mode. Let’s watch this week!

If we say there are regrets in this market trend? I think there is only one point to mention, and the probability of making a common mistake is definitely over 90%, and that is:

When facing certain signals, we always imagine the market and subjectively think about how it will move, not how it won't move.

This validates the saying that trading shouldn't involve overthinking; by thoroughly executing according to trading signal systems, you will reap rewards, and you should not guess tops, bottoms, or directions—these are all stumbling blocks that hinder us from becoming skilled traders.

If you are working with a 1H chart cycle, it’s certainly better if there is resonance with the daily chart, as the momentum will be greater, making it easier to realize a main wave; if there is no resonance, it will still be a rebound or a pullback, and a 10% amplitude is unavoidable.

Whether it’s the bullish signal from BTC on the hourly chart (66K on March 2) or the bearish signal from PAXG (5170 on March 12), both are very clear signals; the former is a counter-trend rebound, while the latter is a counter-trend pullback.

Even if you can't achieve these, at least when you see a certain signal, absolutely do not have a reverse trade!

Bounce, is it definitely not a reversal?

1. BTC has broken through the life line and decision line from the bottom, and the remaining resistance is the bull-bear boundary line at 81.6K. Does this mean that breaking through the bull-bear line indicates a reversal? Not necessarily.

After the breakout, it needs to go through the convergence of moving averages and the subsequent upward divergence after convergence to be considered a trend reversal. Right now, it is breaking through multiple levels to release the trapped positions and profit-taking above, which is a necessary action and procedure before the market reversal.

If after breaking through three levels the moving averages converge, but then choose to diverge downward again, it marks the beginning of a new downtrend. So even so, BTC is still facing direction decision issues in the coming weeks.

Resistance level at 81.6K, support level at 74K.

2. CRCL price has risen to 125U. On the daily chart, its moving average pattern is experiencing a wrap from bearish to bullish trend: the short-term moving averages have crossed above the mid-term and long-term moving averages, and now the 30-day and 60-day moving averages have also chosen a golden cross.

Therefore, the wind vane can look at CRCL, and in the near future, we will see the convergence pattern of the short-term, mid-term, and long-term moving averages on the daily chart. That will be the key, and the price should be around 91.8U.

Weekly Analysis | BTC/PAXG is severely negatively correlated, HYPE stands out!

1. The closing price of BTC in the last two weeks is a stop-loss signal. The current price is hovering around 74K, so let's see how this week performs. Don't just blindly short; on the hourly chart, a bullish signal has been emitted again. Yesterday, the price was at 71.6K, and when I saw this signal, I was a bit startled, thinking it shouldn't really rise again, but in fact, it is going to rise.

2. PAXG is negatively correlated with BTC. It is evident that cryptocurrency has been rising these past two days while gold has been falling, and the daily chart has broken the life line, also breaking the fluctuation area on the hourly chart. I'm on the sidelines now; I exited the spot market with a 3% paper loss.

3. HYPE's weekly chart shows a big bullish candlestick, with the current support level at 34.8U. A pullback to this level can be a buying opportunity; I recommend treating this asset as a long-term investment.

Action Advice: BTC and other cryptocurrencies show no signs of stopping their rebound. Don't blindly short; be cautious with long positions on PAXG.

This round of rebound is almost over.

1. BTC formed a bearish candlestick below the decision line yesterday, marking the second quick drop after hitting 74K. This round of rebound should come to an end; the hourly chart may still struggle a bit, with a resistance level at 71.2K and a support level at 70.2K. Don't chase the long positions anymore; the thinking remains bearish.

2. The performance of PAXG is a bit disappointing; our cost is around 5170, and the current price is 5030U. For the first time in a long while, the daily chart shows the fast line crossing below the zero axis, raising concerns about future market trends. Although the daily chart is still bullish, a deep correction is also entirely possible.

Currently, it has reached the lower edge of the oscillation range at 5000. Let's see if it can rebound; however, adjustments to positions are necessary, as there is currently an unrealized loss of 2.81%. It is a pity that I did not hold onto the bearish signal seen on the hourly chart the day before yesterday.

3. The price of WTI crude oil has reached 100, which is quite strong. When it rises, other markets drop; when it drops, other markets rebound and rise. Currently, both BTC and gold are falling, while WTI maintains a strong oscillation.

4. There are opportunities with HYPE and CRCL; both of them may have another significant drop, so it’s a chance to seize.

Operational suggestions: Pay attention to the strong HYPE, CRCL, and the dead cross near the zero axis of BTC's fast and slow lines.

Gentle rise or wait for a crash? With HYPE being so strong, when should we buy CRCL?

1. BTC/ETH are gently rising, with prices fluctuating above 70K/2K, the hourly chart moving averages are all in a bullish arrangement and will not break for a while. On the daily chart, it fluctuates around the life line, at least the current price is stronger than before, and this time it may test 74K.

2. PAXG's 1H chart from yesterday indeed showed a standard short signal with a bearish engulfing pattern, but it still hasn't escaped the upper and lower edges of the range. It's unknown when the oscillation will end; the performance of gold at this time is really frustrating, so let's observe it, although I still hold a positive outlook for the future.

3. WTI's daily chart is already close to 100U. The large bearish candle from a few days ago likely caused many people to get trapped. Before the crash, Jiuge also reminded everyone of the risks. Looking at the hourly chart, the moving averages are in a bullish arrangement that resonates with the daily chart, so crude oil is in a bullish trend, with short-term support at 88.

4. It's definitely time to buy HYPE spot, it's still not too late, and we can't wait for a lower price. I used to think of waiting for 20U or even lower prices, but the daily chart has already shown a step-like rise. The strong will remain strong; unless there is significant negative news, it will maintain a gentle upward trend, giving the feeling that the bull market is beginning to show.

5. For CRCL, I am waiting for the daily chart moving averages to repair the divergence, the key signal is to wait for the moving averages to converge and then diverge again. It is very strong, I need to wait for it to crash before entering, in a bear market, the competition is about time pressure.

Limit trading on contracts as much as possible or avoid it altogether.

1. The market has been in a range-bound fluctuation for the past two months, which is very unfriendly for trend traders. Unless you adjust to a range trading mode, trend trading will repeatedly hit stop-loss levels. BTC has a fluctuation space of 10,000 points between 72K and 62K.

2. There are very few opportunities for trend trading, even on the hourly chart level, unless there are trend trading opportunities on the 5-minute or even shorter time frames. This level of trend trading is equivalent to range fluctuations on the 4H and daily chart levels.

3. Bullish opportunities: Focus on HYPE, CRCL, and PAXG. On one hand, they have substantive breakthroughs; on the other hand, there has not yet been a daily trend increase after the breakout (except for PAXG). Therefore, a pullback is inevitable, and we need to wait for it to pull back.

4. Bearish opportunities: BTC and ETH are still trying to break through without success. This is quite tempting and frustrating; the market needs some time to develop. Currently, BTC and ETH are still in a bearish trend, so don't rush.

5. Where will the rebound occur? BTC and ETH may touch the 60 decision line. In past trends, they have frequently touched the decision line, corresponding to prices of 74K/2300U. However, be aware that it does not necessarily have to touch the decision line.

Operational advice: Look for bullish opportunities when PAXG pulls back to the lower boundary of the box at 5035. The short-term resistance for BTC is 71.7K. I think trading HYPE in spot is more stable; just buy if there is a sudden drop.

The BTC price turning around at this position is almost a pipe dream; price increases caused by events are unlikely to maintain long-term stability. PAXG is a clear example; it surged and then corrected before consolidating, returning to the rhythm it should be in.

The upward resistance level at 74K for BTC is the starting point of the last wave of the previous bull market. Breaking this level would confirm the end of the bull market and the beginning of the bear market (although there were signs earlier). The current rebound is merely confirming this.

What everyone might be expecting is for the price to use 60K as a bottom and start building a base. Even so, the price will still be pulled back and forth, so there's no need to overthink it. The upward resistance levels are 74K and the decision line at 76-78K. Operation suggestion: always be prepared to short, with 73-74K considered a rebound high area, but the hourly chart has not confirmed yet, short-term support is at 72.4-69.6K.

#加密市场反弹 #BTC突破7万大关

HYPE and CRCL have ushered in substantial breakthroughs. The decentralized platform coin HYPE is bound to shine brightly in the next bull market, while CRCL has shown strength in both the cryptocurrency and US stock markets, seemingly indicating something. The bull and bear markets of BTC/ETH are also results of market movements; we speculate $50,000 or lower, or a bottom is merely speculation.

If one day the market reveals itself, it will be beyond our speculation. Respect the trend and revere the trend; let your thinking and judgment become part of the trend. A preconceived notion will cause you to miss everything, including what could be an opportunity to change your class.

Such opportunities are rare, but they will always exist.

CRCL USDC's US stocks have once again reached a new high, while other cryptocurrency-related stock products including MicroStrategy and Bitmine have also seen varying degrees of increase. The latter has not made any breakthrough progress, but CRCL has indeed experienced a breakthrough rise. Now we are just waiting for the explosion after the daily chart moving averages converge.

Even if Bitcoin really breaks new lows, CRCL has not hit bottom yet and may drop to its starting point of 50, with the current price at 111U.

Is this a hint?