Ov_Gnart

I share the onchains I know here in the simplest and most understandable way possible. I hope to help many people.

Please try to save money before wanting to earn money!

Summary of PCE data on the US economy (September 26, 2025)

- Core PCE (August): 0.2% → lower than expected → core inflation cools down, close to the Fed's desired level.
- Personal income: 0.4% → households still have good income.
- Personal consumption: 0.6% → strong consumption, exceeding income → showing signs of using "savings money".

👉 Overall picture: inflation cools down + weakening labor → the Fed has room to loosen, but consumption remains strong → the Fed will proceed slowly and cautiously.

🏦 Implications for the Fed

- The probability of maintaining the interest rate at 4.25% in the next meeting is high for further observation.
- If PCE continues to stabilize low & labor cools, the Fed may cut an additional 25bps in subsequent meetings.
- Risks: if consumption is too strong pushing service inflation back up, the Fed will pause loosening.

₿ Impact on BTC

- Positive: Inflation cools down → the Fed leans towards gradual loosening, beneficial for risk assets (BTC, ETH, stocks).
- Neutral/short-term negative: Consumption remains strong → the Fed will find it hard to be “dovish” as quickly as the market hopes → may create a correction phase for BTC when expectations are too high.
- Summary: The Fed is paving the way for a new cycle of cheap money, but is proceeding step by step. Long-term BTC still benefits, short-term may fluctuate due to market corrections of expectations.

👉 In short: Good news for BTC in the long term (cheaper money), but not yet a signal for the Fed to "loosen up". Short-term may still see fluctuations around interest rate expectations.

#PCEInflationWatch #BTC

🎯 Key points from Powell's speech

1. The labor market is weakening in the summer → the hiring rate is very low, companies are slow to hire due to policy uncertainty and tariff factors.

2. Inflation & employment need to be more balanced → the Fed will continue to monitor data and adjust policies if it sees things are not on the right track.

3. The financial situation of households and banks is still good, with no major risks to financial stability yet.

4. Tariffs:
- The burden falls heavily on the middle class, with little benefit passed on to consumers.
- Not a major driver of inflation, expected to only have a one-time impact and end by the end of next year.

5. AI & labor: AI may change the structure of employment, but cannot yet be considered the main cause of reduced hiring.

6. Asset pricing: Some assets (stocks) are at high levels compared to history, but the Fed is not targeting asset price control.

7. Overview: Risks are gradually balancing, but Powell remains concerned about downside risks to labor.

👉 Powell indicates that the Fed recognizes the weakening labor market, gradually balancing inflation, but remains cautious. The Fed will flexibly adjust its policies, not too "hawkish" but also not too "dovish".

#Powell #Market_Update $BTC

🚨 Bitcoin Supply in Profit – Is the market too hot? 🚨

📊 Currently, 91% of BTC supply is in profit, slightly down from nearly 100% after the recent price peak. The indicator has reached the +1 SD zone → indicating that the market is in an excited/overheated state similar to previous cycle peaks.

🔎 Meaning by time frame:

Long term: Supply in Profit is still above 1500DMA → the major bull market remains intact.

Medium term: When maintaining above +1 SD, it usually signals that the market is "overbought" → local top formation is likely.

Short term: Local bottoms often appear around the +0.4 SD zone (red line) → may present a reasonable buy point after correction.

✅ The bull market has not broken, but the market is hot → be cautious with chasing buys. Being patient for a correction back to +0.4 SD might be a safer entry.
This is on-chain information and does not represent personal opinion.
Hope everyone is careful with BUY THE DIP!!
Best ❤️!

#Bitcoin #Onchain #BuyTheDip

Last week reached the target, everyone

BTC hit the CME range and tested the supply/demand cluster around 118k
Anyone who listened to me and held profits and shorted is probably making profits now.
Everyone shorting, remember to pull the SL back to entry to preserve capital first.
Because before a big upward wave, there is always a super sweeping phase at both ends.

ALWAYS PRESERVE CAPITAL!!!

Happy new week, everyone!🌹🌹🌹

#Market_Update #BTC

📊Onchain Report for Monday

Summary of the data

✅ETH – Mid-sized whales have unrealized profits at the “peak of 2021”
- Wallets holding 10K–100K ETH currently have unrealized profits similar to the peak cycle in November 2021.
- This indicates that whales are sitting on significant profits → there is a risk of increased selling pressure if sentiment changes.
✅Coinbase Reserves reach $112B – Highest in 4 years
- BTC, ETH & stablecoin reserves on Coinbase have reached 112 billion USD, the highest since the peak of the previous cycle (2021).
- This is a signal that capital is returning to the exchange from both retail and institutions → reflecting confidence and improving market liquidity.
- History shows that when reserves increase, the market often gains additional upward momentum.

✅BTC – Dashboard Liquidation & Positioning (Glassnode)
- After FOMC: Shorts in the 117K range were liquidated, longs began to be liquidated in the 112.7K range.
- Currently, traders are net short -485 BTC → sentiment remains cautious.
- Liquidation Wall: there are ~5k BTC longs at risk of being “stopped out” if support breaks, but simultaneously, the amount of shorts at high levels is also significant → creating a two-sided risk (could squeeze both longs and shorts).

👉👉👉Summary:

ETH: Whales are making significant profits → risk of profit-taking if the market weakens, but if they continue to hold → it forms a foundation for a stronger uptrend.

BTC: Short-term traders lean towards shorts, but with a high accumulation of shorts, if prices hold above 114K–117K → a short squeeze is likely to push prices up.

The market is in a sensitive phase – ETH whales could create selling pressure, BTC faces two-sided risk from derivatives, but large capital returning to Coinbase indicates a bullish outlook in the medium to long term.

#BTC

📊Macro Trends Affecting Bitcoin.

⚠️U.S. Labor Data:
Initial jobless claims decreased → positive short-term signal.
However, overall data shows that the labor market is weakening (averaging only +30k jobs/month, compared to +100k earlier this year).

⚠️Fed: has cut interest rates and signaled further easing, but investors believe the Fed is not as dovish as expected → meaning the market is waiting for a more dovish stance, but in reality, the Fed remains cautious.

🔥🔥🔥Impact on Bitcoin

1. Short-term (market sentiment)
- The continued decline in gold indicates that risk-off capital flows are not yet strong → this could temporarily put pressure on BTC, as BTC usually moves alongside gold as a hedge.
- The Fed being “not as dovish as hoped” → the crypto market may feel disappointed, causing BTC to "fluctuate" (The 25bp cut was anticipated for too long, leading to disappointment and gradually diminishing confidence. Increased selling pressure).

2. Medium-term (interest rate & liquidity trends)
- The Fed has begun a rate-cutting cycle → meaning that the environment of cheap money is returning, albeit at a slower pace than expected.
- This typically supports BTC, as cheap money encourages investors to seek profit in risk assets.

3. Long-term (the story of safe haven & hedge)
- The U.S. labor market is gradually weakening + the Fed continues to lower rates in 2025–2026 → increasing the likelihood of recession or slowing growth.
- In that scenario, BTC could benefit in two ways:
- As a risk asset (thanks to low interest rates, ample liquidity).
- As “digital gold” (when gold is still under scrutiny, BTC may attract additional speculative capital seeking a substitute safe haven).

#BTC #Fed

Summary of the FOMC minutes from last night.

Policy
- The Fed lowered interest rates by 0.25% (25 basis points), bringing the federal funds rate range from 4.25% - 4.5% down to 4% - 4.25%.
- This is the first rate cut aimed at supporting the economy as growth shows signs of slowing down.

📉 Reasons for the Fed's decision
Economic growth: the first half of the year has slowed down, no longer as strong as in 2024.
Labor market: the number of new jobs created is lower, the unemployment rate has increased slightly but remains quite low.
Inflation: still above the Fed's target of 2%, meaning prices are still “hot”.
Risks: The Fed notes that risks to employment have increased, meaning the likelihood of economic weakness or recession is higher.

🔮 Future forecasts
2025: The Fed expects to cut another 0.25% → year-end interest rate ~ 3.6% (instead of the previously forecasted 3.9%).
2026: Interest rates continue to decrease slightly to 3.4% (instead of 3.6%).

💡 Implications for investors
Short term: interest rate cuts increase expectations for cheap cash → supporting the stock market, gold, and even crypto.
Medium term: The Fed remains cautious as inflation has not dropped to 2% → meaning they will reduce rates “in small steps”, not too quickly.
Long term: the general trend is a gradual decrease in interest rates in 2025–2026, meaning a return to a low cash environment → favorable for risk assets like Bitcoin and altcoin.

Tonight, I will go into more detail about macroeconomics. Thanks everyone 🌹
#fomc #BTC

1 AM this morning there was news about interest rates and everyone knows that it will decrease by 25 basis points.
So the highlight here is Powell's statement starting at 1:30 AM.

At this point, both long and short positions should manage their capital and set appropriate stop losses, everyone. A night of fluctuations is here.

Everyone pay attention to around 3 AM when the NEW YORK session closes. It usually has high volatility at the close.

🔥 BTC Market Pulse – Week 38 🔥

📈 Price: BTC recovers around $116K thanks to expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates soon, but the RSI has entered the “overbought” zone → prone to strong fluctuations.

📊 Derivatives & ETF: Futures open interest increases, U.S. spot ETFs report strong inflows. The options trader sentiment is less defensive → the market leans towards bullish.

🔗 On-chain:
Network activity decreases, transaction fees are low → soft on-chain demand.
However, most BTC is in a profit state, holders are gradually taking profits.

🔥 This wave could be, as I mentioned earlier, a slight recovery to 118k, but for me, this is still a recovery.
The current macro situation is bad, so even if this wave increases to 120k, it will still be a good price unloading period for the big players.
If you observe on-chain, you will see prices continuously SW with very even buying and selling phases, but the core issue is weak network activity, large players over 1k-10k $BTC are still unloading to reduce accumulation, buyers are in groups under 1k BTC.
When BTC cannot hold up and is continuously unloaded, do you think Altcoins can maintain their prices?
Make sure to take profits when you can, and keep your money safe from other big fish.

I have been sick these past few days so I haven’t been able to update regularly, sorry everyone.

#Bitcoin #Crypto #MarketPulse

Altcoin Season Index: 82 🚀Is the market about to take off?

🔼 The Altcoin Season Index just reached a score of 82, the highest since December 2024.

🟢So what does it mean? 👇
Index > 75 → Official Altcoin Season
→ More than 75% of top altcoins have increased more than BTC in 90 days.
This is when altcoins pump the hardest:
Many people choose to hold altcoins because of higher profits than BTC.

🔺This is what people say to make you their liquidity😅

🌟How should you treat the Altcoin Season Index to match your financial situation best?
✅Make sure to read the section below and save it, so no one can deceive you anymore.

- Bitcoin Season (Index <25): BTC runs ahead, altcoins fly less. This is the time to gradually accumulate good altcoins for the next wave.
- Index 25–60: BTC stabilizes → altcoins start to fly strongly. This is often the best phase to hold altcoins.
- Index >75: All altcoins fly → fomo phase, so take profit gradually, not just wait to buy at this point.

👉 In summary:
The index does not predict the future, but reflects a comparison of past performance (90 days).
Therefore, when the index is at 60, it means altcoins have already flown in the past 3 months.
Smart investors usually accumulate altcoins from the 25–50 range and gradually sell when >75.

THIS PLACE HAS ALREADY SOLD, if you enter now, you are at the peak.

I hope my knowledge helps you all.
Tks and love money❤️.

#altsesaon #AltcoinSeasonIndex

3 minutes ago I posted about War, Economy, and Politics
then President Trump gave us a letter.

This is a dangerous factor, be careful with your wallet💰💵
Manage risks very tightly.
Wishing everyone good luck and victory!

#TRUMP #MarketRebound

The Market is Flying 🔥 But Be Careful with the Market🔥

🧭When War, Economy, and Politics Collide.
When the whole world seems on the brink of war — while the market is celebrating 🎉
A series of shocking events happening almost simultaneously:

🌍 Europe: Poland shoots down a Russian UAV, triggering NATO Article 4 → escalating geopolitical risks.
🇺🇸 USA: PPI drops sharply, CPI stabilizes → the market expects the Fed to cut rates soon. Stocks, gold, Bitcoin surge.
💻 Tech stocks: Oracle up 40% thanks to AI, Apple down due to unappealing iPhone.
🏛️ Washington: legal crisis regarding the Fed, institutional trust shaken.

📈 Why is the market still celebrating?
Bad economic news = potential rate cuts = cheaper money = rising risk assets.

₿ Meaning for Crypto
$BTC will benefit if the risk-on capital flow continues.
But political tensions can reverse quickly → risk management is needed.
Short term: take profit when reaching targets, set stop-loss.
Medium/long term: hold BTC/ETH as a hedge against inflation.

🔔 Conclusion
3 storms: war – economy – politics simultaneously, but the market is excited due to expectations of rate cuts. Big opportunities, but risks are not small.

#bitcoin #crypto #Macro #Geopolitics $BTC $ETH 🚀

Update on the weekend situation, everyone.

$BTC The current price has filled the CME GAP, and it may continue to move towards the 118k liquidity sweep zone.
💥HOWEVER, in this area, BTC will have high risk when it fills the GAP and then reverses back to the 111k zone (an important support zone).

$ETH Currently recovering very well but please note that in the H1 and H4 frames it is overbought.

Advice: should take partial profits to LOCK in gains.
BE CAREFUL:
Do not FOMO
Follow capital management.
Set SL.
The market can turn very quickly.

Tonight I will send you an article about geopolitics and macroeconomics to understand why I advise you to AVOID FOMO and TAKE PROFITS.
Thanks everyone for reading the article.

#BTC #ETH #Market_Update

KEEP YOUR INTEREST 💥

After the CPI news did not meet market expectations,
the entire market is experiencing a slight price stagnation.
This area is currently a strong resistance for both $BTC and $ETH .

Closing the candle tomorrow morning is quite important for absorbing the news and preparing for the BIG NEWS "interest rate".

🎁Preserving capital is the first thing we should do at this time.
💵💵💵Be careful with your money.

🔥🔥🔥US inflation data (08/2025)

📊 Key figures:
Core CPI (MoM & YoY): 0.3% and 3.1% → as expected, stable ✅
Headline CPI (MoM & YoY): 0.4% and 2.9% → higher than expected ⚠️

👉 This means: core inflation has not increased, but overall inflation is still rising due to energy & food prices.

⚠️Bad news: Overall inflation increases → the market is worried that the Fed may not rush to lower interest rates.
⚠️Good news: Core inflation is stable → the Fed may view this pressure as temporary, no need for strong tightening yet.
Forecast: The Fed is likely to keep current interest rates for a while to observe.

₿ Impact on Bitcoin
📈 If the market believes the Fed will not rush to raise rates, BTC may benefit as a “risk asset” in anticipation of cheaper money.
📉 But the higher-than-expected CPI data slows down the “risk-on” sentiment → BTC may experience significant volatility, easily subject to short-term profit-taking.

Short term: BTC is likely to fluctuate according to interest rate expectations → may sideway or experience strong oscillations.
Medium/long term: Persistent inflation reinforces the argument that BTC is “digital gold” → supports the accumulation trend.

#Fed #lamphat #cpi #BinanceSq #BTC $ETH

Before the CPI $BTC , what direction will there be?

This is the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) chart.
The supply-demand cluster shows the number of BTC purchased at various price levels.

Currently, the price of BTC has broken out of the sideways range from 111k to 114k.
At this moment, all BTC supply below $111.1K is being absorbed by latent demand → meaning there are buyers ready to purchase, providing strong support around $111K.

Combined with the good PPI news from last night - supporting the Crypto market
👉perhaps tonight we will continue to see good news about CPI

We have a price breakout + PPI (if + CPT is good)
In the near term ahead
💹The price is likely to rise to test the large supply/demand cluster around $118K.

#BTCPrice #CryptoNews #Breakout #liquidity

✅ PPI data (Producer Price Index) of the USA for August
Result: Decrease -0.1%
Previous period: +0.9%
Forecast: +0.3 ~ 0.4%
👉 Meaning: prices at the “source” of producers have slowed down and even decreased → a sign that inflationary pressures are easing.

✅ Impact on the FED
When inflation decreases, the FED has less reason to raise interest rates further.
It is highly likely that the FED will maintain interest rates or even consider lowering them in the future if this trend continues.

✅ Impact on Bitcoin
*Positive for $BTC 💹:
Easing inflation → more accommodative monetary policy.
If the FED maintains or lowers interest rates, cheaper money will increase demand for risky assets like crypto.
*Neutral / Short-term negative ⚠️:
The market may wait for more data (CPI, employment, consumption) before taking strong actions.
BTC still needs real money inflows (ETF inflows, on-chain activity) to break out.
👉 In summary: Negative PPI is a good signal for BTC in the medium term, as easing inflationary pressures mean the FED will be more “gentle.” However, in the short term, BTC's price still depends on market sentiment and institutional cash flows.

#Bitcoin #PPI #BTC

Glassnode – $BTC Market Pulse: Week 37

📊Overview
- Bitcoin trades around the cost basis of short-term holders (~$111k), indicating stability but still very fragile.
- Spot indicators:
RSI slightly increased, CVD improved → reduced selling pressure.
However, trading volume decreased → buying force is not strong enough to create a breakthrough.
- Futures indicators:
Open interest slightly increased, CVD perpetual recovered → there is buying the dip.
But the funding rate decreased → long demand has eased.
- Options:
Open interest and volatility narrowed → the market is less active.
25-delta skew remains high → defensive pressure (hedging) is still strong.
- ETF flows:
Inflow slowed down, trading volume is low, MVRV slightly increased → indicates light profit-taking but no strong buying from institutions.
- On-chain:
Active addresses slightly increased, but transfer volume and fees remain low → network activity is still sluggish.
Realized Cap inflows, the ratio of STH/LTH and Hot Capital Share slightly improved, reflecting investment demand from short-term but not clearly defined.
- Summary:
The market is in a standstill at the short-term cost basis, indicators have slightly improved, but overall still lack clear momentum — sentiment remains cautious, slightly leaning towards the negative side, but does not rule out a short-term rebound if real money returns.

#Bitcoin #Options #ETF #Institutions #MarketPulse #CryptoInsights