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By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
Bitcoin and the broader crypto market are holding firm alongside U.S. stock futures as oil prices, bond yields and the Dollar Index ease on signs that ceasefire talks between the U.S. and Iran could begin as early as Thursday.
Still, nothing is confirmed, and it may be too soon to position for a full return to normalcy, according to some observers.
"We are not geopolitical experts, but we would have thought Iran would have maximum leverage of high energy prices going into any negotiation," analysts at ING said. "Thus, it is probably too early to expect any big drop in energy prices or a much softer dollar this week."
Skepticism remains on the Iranian side as well. According to Axios, officials have told Pakistan, Egypt and Turkey that recent U.S. military movements have deepened suspicions that Trump's peace proposal may be just a ruse.
Macro conditions are also turning less supportive. The U.S. money market curve has now priced out any Fed easing this year, a sharp shift from earlier expectations of at least two 25-basis-point cuts, which were seen as a key bullish catalyst for BTC and other risk assets.
On the crypto front, the news flow hasn't helped either. Circle Internet's (CRCL) stock slid Tuesday after a leaked draft of the Clarity Act suggested limits on paying interest on idle stablecoin balances. Meanwhile. Arkham Intelligence reported that Bhutan may be selling roughly $30 million worth of BTC. with the government still holding 4,453 coins valued at about $315.9 million.
Despite these headwinds, bitcoin continues to hold above $70,000, with dips proving short-lived. A market that refuses to fall on negative news often signals underlying strength, potentially setting the stage for a larger move higher. Dynamics of bitcoin's impending options expiry on Friday point to a potential for a bounce to $75,000. Stay alert!
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Source: Farside Investors