The Kobeissi Letter
An industry leading commentary on the global capital markets.
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BREAKING: Widespread power outages and blackouts are being reported across Iran following new US and Israeli strikes.
We have yet to receive comment on Iran from President Trump since Thursday, when Trump said he was pausing strikes on Iranian power plants until April 6th.
We have yet to receive comment on Iran from President Trump since Thursday, when Trump said he was pausing strikes on Iranian power plants until April 6th.
BREAKING: Global long-term bonds posted -$4.7 billion in outflows in the week ending March 25th, the 2nd-largest on record.
This is only below the -$6.8 billion seen during the 2020 pandemic.
At the same time, high-yield corporate bonds posted their 3rd consecutive weekly
This is only below the -$6.8 billion seen during the 2020 pandemic.
At the same time, high-yield corporate bonds posted their 3rd consecutive weekly
The Kobeissi Letter for the week of March 30th has been published and may be viewed through the link below:
The Chart of the Week for the week of March 30th has been published. View or sign up for FREE through the link below:
The Chart of the Week for the week of March 30th has been published. View or sign up for FREE through the link below:
BREAKING: The USS Tripoli has arrived in the Middle East carrying 3,500 sailors and Marines amid reports that the US is preparing for a potential ground operation in Iran, per CNN.
Gold stocks are in historically oversold territory:
~95% of stocks in the gold miners ETF, $GDX, are now trading in a bear market, the highest since at least April 2023.
This has surged +850% over the last 4 weeks as gold miners have dropped -25% over this period, entering a
~95% of stocks in the gold miners ETF, $GDX, are now trading in a bear market, the highest since at least April 2023.
This has surged +850% over the last 4 weeks as gold miners have dropped -25% over this period, entering a
BREAKING: Iran’s IRGC says they will target two Israeli or US universities in the region in retaliation for the attack on Iran’s University of Science and Technology in Tehran.
Investors are ramping up bets against Oracle’s credit:
Oracle’s, $ORCL, 5-year credit default swaps (CDS) are up to 191 basis points, the highest since the 2008 Financial Crisis peak.
Company’s CDS have QUADRUPLED since mid-2025, meaning protection against Oracle’s default now
Oracle’s, $ORCL, 5-year credit default swaps (CDS) are up to 191 basis points, the highest since the 2008 Financial Crisis peak.
Company’s CDS have QUADRUPLED since mid-2025, meaning protection against Oracle’s default now
Job market sentiment among US workers is collapsing:
In Q4 2025, just 28% of US employees said it is a “good time” to find a quality job, the lowest in at least 4 years, according to the latest Gallup survey.
This percentage has fallen -42 points since Q2 2022.
In Q4 2025, just 28% of US employees said it is a “good time” to find a quality job, the lowest in at least 4 years, according to the latest Gallup survey.
This percentage has fallen -42 points since Q2 2022.
BREAKING: Turkey's central bank sold -58 tons of gold, worth over $8 billion, in just 2 weeks.
Gold reserves dropped -6 tons in the week ending March 13th and another -52 tons in the week ending March 20th, bringing total reserves down to 513 tons, marking the largest drop in 7
Gold reserves dropped -6 tons in the week ending March 13th and another -52 tons in the week ending March 20th, bringing total reserves down to 513 tons, marking the largest drop in 7
US consumer sentiment is deteriorating as inflation expectations surge:
The Consumer Sentiment Index fell -3.3 points in March, to 53.3, its lowest since December 2025.
The index is now below the 2008 Financial Crisis low and almost in-line with the 1980s recession bottom.
The Consumer Sentiment Index fell -3.3 points in March, to 53.3, its lowest since December 2025.
The index is now below the 2008 Financial Crisis low and almost in-line with the 1980s recession bottom.
BREAKING: In a major escalation, Yemen's Houthi Group has officially joined the war with a ballistic missle launch at Israel, just as the war hit its one-month mark.
All eyes are now on the Bab al-Mandab Strait.
If closed, the world loses another ~6 million barrels of daily oil
All eyes are now on the Bab al-Mandab Strait.
If closed, the world loses another ~6 million barrels of daily oil
BREAKING: The Iran War officially hits its one-month mark.
ETFs are off to their strongest start to a year in history:
Global ETFs have attracted +$518 billion in inflows year-to-date, the highest for any year on record.
This is +30% more than last year's pace and over 5 times the average at this point of the year.
Inflows have been
Global ETFs have attracted +$518 billion in inflows year-to-date, the highest for any year on record.
This is +30% more than last year's pace and over 5 times the average at this point of the year.
Inflows have been
Foreigners are dumping Asian stocks at a record pace:
Investors from overseas have sold -$52 billion of Asian emerging-market equities excluding China so far in March, the biggest monthly withdrawal on record.
This exceeds the previous full-month record set during the 2020
Investors from overseas have sold -$52 billion of Asian emerging-market equities excluding China so far in March, the biggest monthly withdrawal on record.
This exceeds the previous full-month record set during the 2020
Iranian oil revenues are surging:
Estimated Iranian oil revenues are up +$25 million per day in March from the prior month, to $139 million per day.
This comes as Iranian tankers are still transiting the Strait of Hormuz while most other Persian Gulf oil supply is still
Estimated Iranian oil revenues are up +$25 million per day in March from the prior month, to $139 million per day.
This comes as Iranian tankers are still transiting the Strait of Hormuz while most other Persian Gulf oil supply is still
BREAKING: Total US net call options volume is down to ~10,000 contracts per day, the lowest since the April 2025 selloff.
The 5-day moving average of calls-minus-puts has fallen by -1.3 million contracts since February.
This comes as put options trading has significantly
The 5-day moving average of calls-minus-puts has fallen by -1.3 million contracts since February.
This comes as put options trading has significantly
We are ending the week with US oil prices at $101barrel, the S&P 500 at a 232-day low, and the US 10Y Note Yield at 4.44%.
If the last 14 months have taught us anything, it is that the next 50 hours until the 6 PM ET futures open on Sunday are going to be highly eventful.
If the last 14 months have taught us anything, it is that the next 50 hours until the 6 PM ET futures open on Sunday are going to be highly eventful.
BREAKING: The S&P 500 officially posts its lowest close in 232 days, erasing another -$1 trillion of market cap today.
This brings total S&P 500 losses since the Iran War began to -$4.8 trillion.
This brings total S&P 500 losses since the Iran War began to -$4.8 trillion.
BREAKING: As US oil prices rise above $100barrel, our models indicate that if current levels are sustained another 2 months, US CPI inflation will rise to ~3.3%.
This would put US inflation at its highest level since May 2024.
This would put US inflation at its highest level since May 2024.
BREAKING: Qatar has declared force majeure on LNG contracts through May 2026, canceling obligations to customers in Italy, Belgium, South Korea, and China.
Qatar is one of the world's largest LNG suppliers, accounting for 20% of global LNG production.
Qatar is one of the world's largest LNG suppliers, accounting for 20% of global LNG production.
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