$BTC Contrary to the counterfeit, the bear lasts for a year, and the bull lasts for three years. The counterfeit probably has a bear market for three years and a bull market for one year. Here, the mention of counterfeit refers to those with a narrative, so many inflated coins should generally not be bet on for a second wave in the short term. For instance, I shorted SUI in the long run down to 0.2, and I short SUI with every rebound. The endless unlocking, along with the previous high enthusiasm, will lead to a continuous influx of people bottom-fishing, and the main force needs to offload, while some still fall.
$LDO The market is no longer accepting it; the 7% buyback proposal only increased by 4%. Looking at the monthly line, I think the news will be exploited. The monthly trend is too poor, it doesn't look like a bottom; it seems more like a discussion to pull up a little to facilitate further sales, buying back more tokens at a lower price is the most likely scenario. The buyback definitely hopes to buy more at a lower price, rather than pushing it up to help you break even. Nobody complains about getting cheap chips when buying; only when selling do they complain about the chips being too cheap.
$TAO Pledge data is increasing again, be careful with short-term short positions and you can continue to short near the previous highs. The pledged coins can be withdrawn at any time, and it's hard to see particularly large surges again. In a bear market, the only way to hedge is to reduce the losses from these sharp increases, with an annual rate of 12%. There will definitely be a wave of selling.
Recently, the #alpha contract in this sector has been discovered, with several hundred times coins being issued without being listed on the spot market. The main players are not actively selling, and no one dares to buy the spot market. So, it will either keep dumping to zero, or it will be tightly controlled operations, which requires expertise in on-chain analysis to dig into whether it's tightly controlled, whether the chips have been bought back, and if so, there is a high probability that it will manipulate the contracts to issue hundred times coins. When shorting, it is best to choose those that have been listed on the spot market, as this avoids the hunting of capital exchange rates and the explosive liquidation of hundred times coins.
$DYDX has suffered a huge loss on this coin, the recent trend is not bad, but don't touch it, this main force is very shady, it is likely to be inflating trading volume and then repurchasing the token rewards for small accounts.
$CRCL If it goes to over 50, it is indeed value investing. It has just pulled back once, and the US stock market is precarious at a high level, which can easily collapse. Those who chased it before will not be washed out so quickly. Waiting for further declines is indeed a good opportunity.
Tip risk $STG fixed proportion exchange $ZRO , pay attention to premium risk, it cannot be denied that it may still rise, but who is willing to pay a 40% premium to bet on an increase? Pay attention to information asymmetry, this is likely to be for the short-term killing of contracts to appear in the market, and in the absence of liquidity, a large number of final chips need to be sold out. It may go down to 0.4, but later it will delist. What if the contract needs to be shorted after being at a high position?
In my opinion, the strongest indicators are Bollinger Bands + MACD. Of course, you also need to choose good assets that can't be heavily manipulated by individuals. It's very suitable for bottom-fishing in a bear market; this round of the bear market, Bitcoin is unlikely to fall below fifty thousand for a long time, and it is highly likely to recover within a few hours after a spike.
Contract awareness? Why do some people always talk about going short or going long by several times? Going long means buying, closing a position means selling. Going short means selling, closing a position means buying. When you buy, it's because someone is selling; when you sell, it's because someone is buying. The only time the open interest rises is when both long and short positions increase simultaneously. It's just like when you want to sell a Bitcoin, it's because someone bought one. The essential difference between a bear market and a bull market is the difference between active buying and active selling; the volume of buying and selling is always the same.
$STG is about to be delisted? STG has been acquired by ZRO, during this time, the fluctuations have been the same, why is today different? Fixed ratio exchange for ZRO, nearly all exchanged, liquidity is gone, small funds are being used to force the market up, someone is doing harm, equivalent to buying ZRO at a 30% premium now, and then forcibly exchanging for delisting later. Theoretically, shorting STG and going long on ZRO equals a 30% arbitrage? I'm just afraid that the wild players in the crypto circle will do no good. 1:0.08634 exchange rate
The Alpha sector should increase the number of securities tokens; ideally, the primary market should not introduce other altcoins. Some funds are flowing into the US stock market, while others are drifting into the secondary market. By delisting some of the garbage in the secondary market, we can have a rotational market. Those market makers that only sell and do not buy should also be kicked out. The Alpha sector should abandon those particularly worthless tokens, as most of them have gone to zero. It's hard to make gains there, but at least in the US stock market, we can access quality assets.
The coin that broke the previous low has a high risk, so it's better not to touch it in the next round. However, most coins have dropped below, and the number of coins that can be purchased is decreasing. More and more U.S. stocks tokens are being introduced, and we can only rely on wild operators to short the market and pull up the prices.
The contract spot price of $TAO has deviated by 7 dollars, and there are too many short positions, for example, I am trapped. The current annual inflation rate is 12%, but the staking rate has increased, somewhat like when staking FIL, the market tokens continue to decrease, and once staking stops, it leads to continuous selling pressure.