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韩丹

会经常写日记/复盘。每日重点新闻整理。链接-公众号:[韩丹AI版]
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ASTER Holder
ASTER Holder
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8.1 Years
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[Why is there no 4-year bull-bear cycle for BTC anymore?]This needs to talk about the mechanism of BTC. The total amount of BTC is 21 million. Since the creation of BTC (2009). Every 10 minutes, 1 block is rewarded, and 1 block contains 50 BTC. However, after every 210,000 blocks (approximately 4 years), the number of BTC rewarded per block is halved. Approximately 2.63 million BTC was mined in the first year. About 10 million BTC was mined in the first 4 years. Starting from the fourth year, because the reward for each block is 'halved', 1 block only rewards 25 BTC. At this time, only 1.3 million BTC is mined each year. Then in the second four years, a total of 5.2 million BTC was mined.

[Why is there no 4-year bull-bear cycle for BTC anymore?]

This needs to talk about the mechanism of BTC. The total amount of BTC is 21 million. Since the creation of BTC (2009).

Every 10 minutes, 1 block is rewarded, and 1 block contains 50 BTC. However, after every 210,000 blocks (approximately 4 years), the number of BTC rewarded per block is halved.

Approximately 2.63 million BTC was mined in the first year. About 10 million BTC was mined in the first 4 years.

Starting from the fourth year, because the reward for each block is 'halved', 1 block only rewards 25 BTC. At this time, only 1.3 million BTC is mined each year.

Then in the second four years, a total of 5.2 million BTC was mined.
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I was just saying why it's falling again and again... It turns out it's hitting and hitting... I sincerely hope for world peace $BTC
I was just saying why it's falling again and again...

It turns out it's hitting and hitting...

I sincerely hope for world peace
$BTC
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A strategy discussed with Clauld Make good use of Polymarket + Binance pre-market Both certainty and odds are fine Basically, it’s like giving away money But be cautious with the 6:1 capital multiple, don't go all in Just earn enough for ten or so meals at Haidilao $EDGE
A strategy discussed with Clauld

Make good use of Polymarket + Binance pre-market

Both certainty and odds are fine

Basically, it’s like giving away money

But be cautious with the 6:1 capital multiple, don't go all in

Just earn enough for ten or so meals at Haidilao

$EDGE
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Today's web3 news $ETH
Today's web3 news

$ETH
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$NIGHT gave 100u Grateful Grateful Will it be sold?
$NIGHT gave 100u

Grateful Grateful

Will it be sold?
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Look They perform so joyfully The audience is also so joyful And all of this is unrelated to money~
Look

They perform so joyfully

The audience is also so joyful

And all of this is unrelated to money~
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WeChat's Shell Lobster Called Clawbot A software that almost everyone has to open Throw a few hundred U to buy some memes Resetting is also worth it
WeChat's Shell Lobster

Called

Clawbot

A software that almost everyone has to open

Throw a few hundred U to buy some memes

Resetting is also worth it
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For something like #btc there is only one action Buy and hold All other actions in terms of time and money appear unnecessary
For something like #btc

there is only one action

Buy and hold

All other actions in terms of time and money appear unnecessary
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Is it short-term trading? Then you have to Keep an eye on the news How about quantitative news returns? Are there any brothers working in this area?
Is it short-term trading?

Then you have to

Keep an eye on the news

How about quantitative news returns?

Are there any brothers working in this area?
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Yesterday 61,000 of $BTC made me tremble $ETH is 1770. Below every 5 seconds 0.1 is copied, halfway through it terrified me to stop $SOL is below 70 every 5 seconds copying 1. This counts as thoroughly copied to the bottom Also hung a lot of BTC options interest below 60,000 down to 40,000 and ate that too. This is a short-term buying the dip rebound, likely to be giving away money. These gains are far from the losses I had on $aster
Yesterday 61,000 of $BTC made me tremble

$ETH is 1770. Below every 5 seconds 0.1 is copied, halfway through it terrified me to stop

$SOL is below 70 every 5 seconds copying 1. This counts as thoroughly copied to the bottom

Also hung a lot of BTC options interest below 60,000 down to 40,000 and ate that too.

This is a short-term buying the dip rebound, likely to be giving away money.

These gains are far from the losses I had on $aster
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Just Binance gave a few hundred U of wlfi This is a bit of comfort in this cold market The rewards for holding uds1 have come down Hurry up and sell, after selling continue to buy the dip $WLFI
Just Binance gave a few hundred U of wlfi

This is a bit of comfort in this cold market

The rewards for holding uds1 have come down

Hurry up and sell, after selling continue to buy the dip

$WLFI
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$BTC 5 has started!!! Last night's market was reminiscent of the security levels of two streets: U.S. stocks 1)Opening: U.S. stocks lightly wounded, cryptocurrency market "bleeding profusely" Last night, U.S. stocks actually didn't drop that much; according to traditional financial narratives, it was at most called "emotional fluctuations". But Bitcoin hit a low of 60,000 directly, and what's even more exaggerated is: the rebound was also strong, approaching ten percent. This indicates that last night was not a "normal pullback"; it was more like "after a concentrated sell-off, someone reopened the door". If you can rebound by ten percent, it means that the drop last night wasn't the market "slowly selling off", but rather "rushing to escape". 2)Market personification: Bitcoin is like a "cash machine", spitting out 45 billion USD daily. The number you provided is quite shocking: In less than a month, 1 trillion USD evaporated, averaging 45 billion USD evaporated daily. * Previously, during the rise, the market relied on "stories" to sustain (narratives, tracks, ecology, revolution) * Now, during the drop, the market only has "incidents" flooding the screens (explosions, liquidations, chain reactions) 3)Indeed bearish: Without new stories, there’s no "reason to catch the falling knife". "The market has also turned bearish" (trend downwards/seeking the bottom) In the "bottom-seeking phase", the biggest trap is: The bottom is not a point; it is a period of time. What you are catching is the "first pit", while the market gives you a "chain of pits". 4)"Don’t try to catch the altcoins" What you said is actually very important and very "against human nature": Never try to catch the bottom of some altcoins. Because many altcoins may not exist in the next bull market. This sentence breaks the illusion that old investors love to deceive themselves with: "If it drops too much, it will come back up." No, the fate of many altcoins in the cryptocurrency world is: If it drops too much, it will be gone. 5)Risk warning: We don't know what point Bitcoin's final price will reach? The correct posture during the bottom-seeking period is not to "guess the bottom", but to "wait for the market to solidify the bottom itself". When to wait? Stabilization - EMA weekly line effectively breaks through. At this time, if you catch altcoins, it's like picking up a lighter on a stormy night - you indeed found one, but you also got completely soaked. If you must catch the bottom, use options.
$BTC 5 has started!!!

Last night's market was reminiscent of the security levels of two streets: U.S. stocks
1)Opening: U.S. stocks lightly wounded, cryptocurrency market "bleeding profusely"

Last night, U.S. stocks actually didn't drop that much; according to traditional financial narratives, it was at most called "emotional fluctuations".

But Bitcoin hit a low of 60,000 directly, and what's even more exaggerated is: the rebound was also strong, approaching ten percent.

This indicates that last night was not a "normal pullback"; it was more like "after a concentrated sell-off, someone reopened the door".

If you can rebound by ten percent, it means that the drop last night wasn't the market "slowly selling off", but rather "rushing to escape".

2)Market personification: Bitcoin is like a "cash machine", spitting out 45 billion USD daily.

The number you provided is quite shocking:
In less than a month, 1 trillion USD evaporated, averaging 45 billion USD evaporated daily.

* Previously, during the rise, the market relied on "stories" to sustain (narratives, tracks, ecology, revolution)

* Now, during the drop, the market only has "incidents" flooding the screens (explosions, liquidations, chain reactions)

3)Indeed bearish:

Without new stories, there’s no "reason to catch the falling knife". "The market has also turned bearish" (trend downwards/seeking the bottom)

In the "bottom-seeking phase", the biggest trap is:

The bottom is not a point; it is a period of time.

What you are catching is the "first pit", while the market gives you a "chain of pits".

4)"Don’t try to catch the altcoins"

What you said is actually very important and very "against human nature":

Never try to catch the bottom of some altcoins. Because many altcoins may not exist in the next bull market.

This sentence breaks the illusion that old investors love to deceive themselves with:
"If it drops too much, it will come back up."

No, the fate of many altcoins in the cryptocurrency world is:

If it drops too much, it will be gone.

5)Risk warning: We don't know what point Bitcoin's final price will reach?

The correct posture during the bottom-seeking period is not to "guess the bottom", but to "wait for the market to solidify the bottom itself".

When to wait? Stabilization - EMA weekly line effectively breaks through.

At this time, if you catch altcoins, it's like picking up a lighter on a stormy night - you indeed found one, but you also got completely soaked.

If you must catch the bottom, use options.
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1. Today is another day of significant drops for BTC, it's almost falling below the previous bull market high. In other words, if you entered at the previous bull market high, after waiting for over 4 years, you're almost breaking even now. Therefore, value investing is important – the assets are important, but timing and price are equally important. 2. I couldn't resist buying a bit at this price today. But rationally, if looking at the long term, I shouldn't have bought. After all, this is a long-term investment, and it hasn't really reached the ideal point for long-term holding. – But that's human nature; indeed, it's hard to control, and I can accept a position that incurs a small loss to make myself feel "comfortable." Ideally, I shouldn't be looking at the price; I should be looking at technical indicators and time dimensions. If BTC stabilizes its fluctuations – I estimate it will take about 5 weeks+, and then if it drops significantly again, when it stabilizes, I will enter a large position. Looking at the technical indicators, it's likely below 50,000. During this time, control your hands.
1. Today is another day of significant drops for BTC, it's almost falling below the previous bull market high.

In other words, if you entered at the previous bull market high, after waiting for over 4 years, you're almost breaking even now.

Therefore, value investing is important – the assets are important, but timing and price are equally important.

2. I couldn't resist buying a bit at this price today. But rationally, if looking at the long term, I shouldn't have bought.

After all, this is a long-term investment, and it hasn't really reached the ideal point for long-term holding. – But that's human nature; indeed, it's hard to control, and I can accept a position that incurs a small loss to make myself feel "comfortable."

Ideally, I shouldn't be looking at the price; I should be looking at technical indicators and time dimensions.

If BTC stabilizes its fluctuations – I estimate it will take about 5 weeks+, and then if it drops significantly again, when it stabilizes, I will enter a large position.

Looking at the technical indicators, it's likely below 50,000.

During this time, control your hands.
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1. Last night, BTC dropped below 73,000. ETH reached a low of 2,100. In this market, don't expect a rebound from an oversold condition. Because the bottom is indeed not obvious at the moment. It's similar to gambling. For example, I previously thought 1 was a good value, so I bought some. Last night before sleeping, it pulled up by 50%. As a result, this morning I woke up to find it brought back down by the market. Let's wait for the market to stabilize before looking for a resonance point. 2. What is liking? We often say to do what we like. But what exactly is liking? In fact, the word liking is not very good. Because some likes are common – for example, everyone likes money, likes beautiful things; dislikes tiring or bad things. Moreover, many things we like have to go through some things we dislike. To summarize: Sometimes, certain words really have too much impact on us. Don't get caught up in liking or disliking. Just do well with what you have in hand. 3. I have been pursuing a feeling of being desireless and demandless. At one point, I even thought that death is the highest state for everyone, because death means being desireless and demandless. But today I listened to a podcast, and he said – people have desires and some 'small selves'; it’s precisely because we are still alive. Right, thinking about it this way makes me feel at ease.
1. Last night, BTC dropped below 73,000. ETH reached a low of 2,100.

In this market, don't expect a rebound from an oversold condition. Because the bottom is indeed not obvious at the moment. It's similar to gambling.

For example, I previously thought 1 was a good value, so I bought some. Last night before sleeping, it pulled up by 50%. As a result, this morning I woke up to find it brought back down by the market.

Let's wait for the market to stabilize before looking for a resonance point.

2. What is liking?

We often say to do what we like. But what exactly is liking?

In fact, the word liking is not very good. Because some likes are common – for example, everyone likes money, likes beautiful things; dislikes tiring or bad things.

Moreover, many things we like have to go through some things we dislike.

To summarize: Sometimes, certain words really have too much impact on us. Don't get caught up in liking or disliking. Just do well with what you have in hand.

3. I have been pursuing a feeling of being desireless and demandless.

At one point, I even thought that death is the highest state for everyone, because death means being desireless and demandless.

But today I listened to a podcast, and he said – people have desires and some 'small selves'; it’s precisely because we are still alive.

Right, thinking about it this way makes me feel at ease.
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$HYPE Doing long-term BTC, are there any good K-line indicators to recommend? Yes~ Weekly EMA56. Many people also look at Daily MA120, but based on my experience from two cycles of bull and bear markets, the Weekly EMA56 is a very good long-term indicator for BTC. It's also very simple to operate: If the weekly K-line effectively breaks below the Weekly EMA56, sell. Conversely~ if it breaks above, buy. No matter how it fluctuates in between, just ignore it. From this perspective, in the long run~ BTC has not yet reached a reasonable entry point. So, I personally am not making much movement at the moment. If I feel the urge, I might buy a few hundred to a thousand U. But I will definitely wait for BTC to effectively break through EMA56 before making a large position. What indicators is everyone looking at?
$HYPE Doing long-term BTC, are there any good K-line indicators to recommend?

Yes~ Weekly EMA56.

Many people also look at Daily MA120, but based on my experience from two cycles of bull and bear markets, the Weekly EMA56 is a very good long-term indicator for BTC.

It's also very simple to operate:

If the weekly K-line effectively breaks below the Weekly EMA56, sell. Conversely~ if it breaks above, buy. No matter how it fluctuates in between, just ignore it.

From this perspective, in the long run~ BTC has not yet reached a reasonable entry point.

So, I personally am not making much movement at the moment. If I feel the urge, I might buy a few hundred to a thousand U. But I will definitely wait for BTC to effectively break through EMA56 before making a large position.

What indicators is everyone looking at?
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0.0000557*900=0.05 Pre-market: 0.042 Is the new purchase still expensive?
0.0000557*900=0.05

Pre-market: 0.042

Is the new purchase still expensive?
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.meme is essentially an outlet for emotions. We must admit that humans are emotional beings. Therefore, we are always influenced by certain things that evoke emotions. Once we have emotions, we inevitably need to do something to release them. Sometimes it's eating, drinking, traveling... But it can also be purchasing a specific meme asset. However, if we invest emotions in buying a meme, we cannot let emotions interfere, because this is investing. So, we need to think, is the emotion expressed in this story intense? Is the explosive power strong? Which meme can carry this emotion? How is the story's传播力? Will it have a greater传播力? Because not every good story will be spread. And once this story is spread, if its explosive power/infectiousness is strong, we must pay close attention. Additionally, consider: what is the current emotional value? If this emotion is spread more widely, what could its value be? For example, today's penguin. This is a very good story and can spread well. Therefore, the j meme on the sol chain has been rising for the past few days. But the传播力 is still not enough, at least there are very few people discussing it in the Chinese-speaking community. Today, the White House retweeted. It's a再传播 of emotions. However, sol has already risen significantly, and bsc has also made a move, and since there is already the legitimate sol, it won't rise too much. So, the emotions have shifted to the vulgar penguin. But after all, it is emotion, and it ended quickly. Therefore, the only opportunity this morning was to go for the vulgar penguin. After all, it has already hit a very low point, and it can't drop much further. The odds are sufficient. I got in, but it was also a loss, a loss of 990,000. The lowest result was 1,000,000. Then the emotion hit, and it instantly rose 2.5 times. Don't save on these small amounts in the future. However, today's event review still yielded significant insights.
.meme is essentially an outlet for emotions.

We must admit that humans are emotional beings.

Therefore, we are always influenced by certain things that evoke emotions.
Once we have emotions, we inevitably need to do something to release them.

Sometimes it's eating, drinking, traveling...

But it can also be purchasing a specific meme asset.
However, if we invest emotions in buying a meme, we cannot let emotions interfere, because this is investing.

So, we need to think, is the emotion expressed in this story intense? Is the explosive power strong? Which meme can carry this emotion? How is the story's传播力? Will it have a greater传播力?

Because not every good story will be spread.

And once this story is spread, if its explosive power/infectiousness is strong, we must pay close attention.

Additionally, consider: what is the current emotional value? If this emotion is spread more widely, what could its value be?

For example, today's penguin.

This is a very good story and can spread well. Therefore, the j meme on the sol chain has been rising for the past few days. But the传播力 is still not enough, at least there are very few people discussing it in the Chinese-speaking community.

Today, the White House retweeted. It's a再传播 of emotions.

However, sol has already risen significantly, and bsc has also made a move, and since there is already the legitimate sol, it won't rise too much.

So, the emotions have shifted to the vulgar penguin. But after all, it is emotion, and it ended quickly.

Therefore, the only opportunity this morning was to go for the vulgar penguin. After all, it has already hit a very low point, and it can't drop much further. The odds are sufficient. I got in, but it was also a loss, a loss of 990,000. The lowest result was 1,000,000. Then the emotion hit, and it instantly rose 2.5 times. Don't save on these small amounts in the future.

However, today's event review still yielded significant insights.
B
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恶俗企鹅
Price
0.0015886
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Plan to buy 1000u The result order was not filled Then there was no callback It just doubled directly. Hold it, wait for the fomo on the 24th.
Plan to buy 1000u

The result order was not filled

Then there was no callback

It just doubled directly.

Hold it, wait for the fomo on the 24th.
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