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Ether dropped from 3209 to 2758, smoothly taking 450 points!
Since the black swan event on October 11, both institutions and retail investors have been liquidated, and there is very little capital left in the market, with liquidity at rock bottom, and market sentiment leaning towards risk aversion.
The reason for letting fans short at 3209 is mainly because the market originally expected a rate cut in December. However, due to internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve, the originally optimistic sentiment has turned pessimistic. This month, both $BTC and $ETH ETFs have been in a state of net outflow, directly driving the market to follow suit and sell off.
Although the market is slightly sluggish now, opportunities to make big profits in U will come again! The great orders are still continuing! 👉聊天室 is here for everyone; if you want to recover your losses, just go for it.
$BSB 12X short position, went in hard at 6100U, left the fans dumbfounded.
0.245 shorted at the peak with fans, 0.189 take profit, accurately shorted at a high position, take profit successfully.
This short position was due to profit-taking at high levels after the futures went live before opening, and a typical pullback. On the 25th, An An launched the BSB contract, and on the 26th and 27th, it started to skyrocket. I opened my position just at the peak at the end of the surge. Today, I took profits and directly went short, targeting 0.17. Weak liquidity led to concentrated long positions being liquidated and prices dropping rapidly.
Every day, I lead real trades like this, with the win rate set here. Those who want to follow, directly → 扫码进聊天室, we can take trades together in the future.
Is ON Coin harvesting retail investors again? Hurry and run!
$ON Last night it violently surged from a low to a high point of 0.259, then high volume at the top, continuous decline, and now it has dropped back below the middle track, with trading volume returning to the previous sluggish state.
Personally, I feel that the current phase of the big top has finished, and the future will still be weakly fluctuating. On-chain data also shows that after high volume, it has decreased again, and smart money distribution is obvious; it's clear that retail investors are taking over. So let me say it straight: now is definitely the time to run! Sudden surges from low points, small investors pushing to the top, and high point entrapment; this set of operations is all too familiar!
Now, those holding positions should reduce their holdings, take profits, and watch for stop losses, while those empty-handed should look to buy in around 0.152 for a swing trade. Real profits are never about betting on direction; you need to seize small advantages with certainty.
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Can BSB still go up? When will the callback happen?
$BSB rose from 0.123 to 0.257, doubling overnight! Now it's back to around 0.22, are many people panicking again?
BSB will rise again, and if you can accurately position yourself, you'll be able to take advantage of the next wave of profit! Currently, there's some buffer until 0.196, RSI is neutral to strong, and there is no overbought condition; MACD is narrowing positively. I believe there is a high probability it will bottom out around 0.196-0.2, wash out, and then rebound, targeting 0.25!
In terms of news, other trading platforms have also launched contracts and spot support in the past couple of days!
On-chain circulation is 200 million, total supply is 1 billion. Although there may be signs of washing in the early stages, the high turnover rate also indicates a precursor to an explosion.
Personally, I still have a positive outlook and believe BSB will rise, but short-term pullbacks are just free money! I have already completed my layout. Buy low, add positions at the support level of 0.2, and set a stop loss below 0.196. Sell high, reduce positions when it rebounds to 0.232, don't be greedy.
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The US consumer confidence index for March came out and I was directly amused, but overall it is still sluggish. People lack confidence in the economy, and inflation is tightening its grip. This also means that the probability of interest rate cuts and monetary easing has increased significantly!
Now BTC is at 66,000, $ETH is dropping along with it, feeling anxious! But a weak economy means strong liquidity, and Bitcoin thrives on this. It's just a short-term washout, a big market is coming later.
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Middle East war, inflation soaring, the market is completely timid!
This year, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates is zero, and next Thursday the probability of a rate cut is only 1.3%, while the probability of at least one rate hike is 54%!
A month ago, there were bets on two or three rate cuts, now there is only one expectation of a 25 basis point cut left. With high interest rates not loosening, the dollar is strong, and the cryptocurrency market is suffering!
$BTC has fallen to 66,000, how much has it retraced from last year's 125,000, you can see for yourself... $ETH is also shaking, market sentiment is too complicated, funds are all on the sidelines.
Under macro pressure, only high-quality projects can withstand the test, I personally feel that now is a good time to buy low! Want to know how to avoid pitfalls, which coins to buy, and how to operate? Come → 扫码进聊天室 to chat with me directly! One-on-one consultation.
Before going short, the price was already at a high point, touching resistance, and there was a long position liquidation, which caused a waterfall-like crash, so I directly judged the standard resistance retracement!
Looking bullish again, I captured the buying power rebound, while the previous sharp drop landed at the support level, so there was a short-term bottom fishing. Thus, after stabilizing, a straight rise occurred, again confirming my precise judgment to go long.
My hand's volume precision positioning is quite accurate! Switching from short to long has completely eaten the rebound, and now the trading status is hot; those who want to share the profits come → 扫码进聊天室, daily god-level trades delivered, let’s go!
MicroStrategy is once again calling for 42 billion financing to continue aggressively buying $BTC , and the bull market supporters are going wild!
They also say that large institutions are much more professional than the air force KOLs... Let's not rush, this money is still being raised, it hasn't been received yet, and it certainly hasn't been dumped into the market. Moreover, putting 42 billion into a 14 trillion BTC market won't create any waves; it can't reverse the trend.
Currently, ETF inflows are clearly slowing down, and marginal buying is weakening! This is more real than any institutional narrative. So my strategy is to short on rallies; if I can't add to my position, I won't force it. It's still too early to call a bottom! It's only been over 40 days of sideways movement, and at this level of a bottom, there's not enough time. We need to at least look at weekly and monthly support, and these structures haven't stabilized yet.
Right now, it's still more about downward fluctuations, so everyone, don't get dizzy and rush in. If you can't understand the market, contact me at 扫码进聊天室, and I'll help you clarify your thoughts!
The biggest difference between retail investors and institutions is how they view the fear index!
The lower retail investors go, the more afraid they become and want to run; the lower institutions go, the more excited they become and buy aggressively! The same signal, two worlds.
In June 2022, fear 6, BTC 17,500, six months later it increased by 60%; In November 2022, fear 12, BTC 15,500, six months later it increased by 80%; In August 2024, fear 21, BTC 49,000, three months later it doubled.
Every time it goes below 15, the median return after 90 days is +38%! Now at 10, extreme fear for 46 consecutive days, even longer than the FTX collapse! And the whales have maximums of 2,140!
It's not about being brave with your head held high; it's that the whales are proving with facts that the bottom has been reached. If you are in this situation too and your heart is racing now...→扫码进聊天室 contact me, don't keep giving your chips to others.
As long as the majority still holds the mindset of bottom fishing, the market hasn't hit the bottom yet!
Every time the market rises now is just to fool you into becoming the bag holder! Novices die from chasing highs, while experts die from bottom fishing. I've seen this downward trend too many times, and it will inevitably continue to drop!
A new downward trend has begun, and all resistance is in vain! If the 15-minute line does not show a high point, the next wave will be a real crash!
So today is generally still bearish! For specific points and strategies, contact → 扫码进聊天室 for a one-on-one clarification.
At 8:30 AM, the initial unemployment benefits are 210,000, with a previous value of 205,000!
Isn't this a signal for interest rate cuts? The Federal Reserve needs to act quickly to save the market!
Now $BTC is at 69,000, while $ETH 2K is slightly above. Today it dipped a bit, but if the data hits hard, tomorrow it will definitely rise!
Many old friends are panicking again, right? I love this kind of situation; if employment softens a bit, the crypto market will be enticing!
If this wave isn't seized, it could lead to tears, but I have to watch my layout. How to trade BTC? How to play with ETH? Come→扫码进聊天室, great opportunity, don't miss out!
How many people have been holding their breath for years, staring at the shanzhai, thinking that once the selling pressure is past, it will be a bull market, but in the end, they never waited for the so-called shanzhai season!
Let me be clear, the shanzhai season that everyone was looking forward to was already crushed by hedge funds in the futures market in advance!
Take SOL for example, during the bankruptcy of FTX, a large amount of locked SOL was sold to funds at a 40% discount or even steeper. These funds then aggressively shorted in the futures market, hedging completely, and made a 70-80% profit! After that, they used this method on all projects’ locked tokens, selling them to funds at an ultra-low price, and then crashing them down on us through futures.
So what you think is low-level bottom fishing is actually acting as a buyer for the funds' arbitrage! This is the truth behind the continuous crashing of shanzhai!
The only good news is that since the locked tokens were digested by the funds in advance, the real selling pressure of the next round of projects will be much smaller than expected!
BTC spot ETF has accumulated 63,000 coins $BTC in the last month! The net inflow is super obvious.
The market has dropped so much that many people are probably devastated, but institutions are quietly buying at low prices!
This signal is too strong! The worse the market is, the more it proves that institutions are laying out their strategies. When the rebound comes, those who will make money are the ones who dared to buy now.
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The altar has collapsed! $PIPPIN is really done for?
Years ago, there was a wave of violent rises and falls, back and forth washing, the heat was full, how many people were severely educated?
Some people stubbornly shorted, and a fierce pull directly took them away; some bought in at high positions, and are still stuck now. From 0.91 to 0.05, a 450% drop, can’t that explain anything?!
The reasoning is clear to seasoned players: the big players raise the price to create emotion, retail investors go in to buy, and in the end, they just walk away with the profits.
But it’s not completely unapproachable; the key is whether your rhythm is ruthless enough; don’t be greedy when eating meat, and don’t hold on when you need to cut losses! It’s just fast-paced and high volatility; if you want to play, you must be more decisive than it.
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In the past two days, gold and silver have rebounded sharply, just because Trump said he would pause the war for a month and mentioned 15 negotiation conditions.
This rebound is actually a normal recovery after being oversold, and it does not prove that the adjustment has ended!
First of all, Trump is unpredictable, so be cautious with your operations. Gold has risen by $500/ounce, and the next likely scenario is to consolidate, digest the gains, and then attempt to explore 4700. If it cannot hold 4500, it will likely retest the low point of 4100. If there are any more twists in the US-Iran negotiations, it could really blow up.
Looking further ahead, I still expect gold to reach 4,700 or 4,800 in April. However, this position has also accumulated a lot of profit-taking and short-term traders, so selling pressure will be very heavy.
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76,000 is not the peak. Where is the peak every day? Where is the bottom? Actually, it’s of no use.
Grasping the range is much more accurate than stubbornly analyzing the K-line. Combining fundamentals and macro perspectives will always outperform those who only look at technical analysis and liquidity.
Speculation relies on luck, while investment relies on brains. Those with higher thresholds will survive longer. There’s no need to talk about the bear market bottom now; what we need to find is the bottom of the first half of the year, which I believe is in the range of 50,000 to 52,000.
The first half of the year will not break 49,000; this round of decline is too fast! In January and February, during that wave of plummet, many people didn’t even react; you know the cycle, but you can’t make money—that’s the reality.
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The U.S. EIA crude oil inventory data at 10:30 PM tonight showed an actual figure of 6.156 million barrels, while the expectation was only 477,000 barrels. This inventory build is really excessive!
This data is extremely bearish! Demand is weak, and the signals are off; oil prices are definitely going to drop. When the macro situation cools down, we will suffer as well!
$BTC , $ETH just showed some signs of improvement, but it seems like another wave of liquidation is coming! Every time the macro environment is this volatile, small investors panic, some are cutting losses, and some are going all in.
What will you choose now? Anxious and trembling? Should you hold or run? Come → 扫码进聊天室 to find me for a one-on-one review of the market, assess your positions, avoid pitfalls, and seize opportunities!
Today, the Americans released a ceasefire signal, gold and cryptocurrency surged, and oil turned down...
Trump is shouting for a ceasefire while sending troops to the Middle East. The conditions set by the U.S. are that Iran must dismantle its nuclear facilities, hand over all enriched uranium, and cut off support for regional armed groups, limiting missile ranges. In return, sanctions will be lifted, plus assistance in developing civilian nuclear power projects.
Iran has not yet responded directly, so we will see what happens when the U.S. Marines arrive in the Middle East on the 27th!
With the ceasefire, oil prices drop, and the big pie rises; as oil prices rebound, the big pie adjusts. Out of options? Let's see what institutions are doing: BitMine just increased its holdings by 67111 pieces $ETH , and BlackRock withdrew 2267 pieces $BTC yesterday, with the exchange's BTC inventory already hitting a historic low!
Institutions are accumulating, and large holders are increasing their holdings. How should retail investors respond to this wave? Come → 扫码进聊天室, don't just watch the excitement; let’s make money together!
Have you all seen the trend of $TAO ? Completely ignoring the market's ups and downs, just soaring wildly, this is the real leader!
When $BTC was crashing down, it stayed horizontal and didn't move, and when BTC rebounded, it surged even more! Its market cap is already in the tens of billions, and it can still be this stable and powerful, with big funds definitely highly united and having a strong consensus.
It has its own independent rhythm! The key buying positions on the market are being taken very steadily, and on-chain data also reflects that big players are positioning.
Coins that can detach from the influence of the market are the targets that small investors should focus on! I have a detailed analysis and next steps in hand, come→扫码进聊天室 let's make a big move together!